BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONTRACTION OF A LIFETIMEThe comparisons to the beginning of dot com are uncanny.
I compared countless indicators and the current price action is identical to the dot com beginning.
Additionally, the duration of the yield curve inversion is identical and the % of the drop is identical, almost to the decimal.
The current contraction took 5x as long to reach this point as compared with the dot com.
The dot com contraction took 2.3 years to hit bottom from the identified mark.
Scaling the time, this correction could take 10 years (5 x 2) to reach bottom.
We've enjoyed 15 years of a bull market (with some bumps along the road).
Now, we are facing the most inverted yield curve in 40 + years.
Time for the market to pay the piper.
I fear this will be a recession we will share with our children in 20 years
We are only at the start of this.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ Correction still has some steam left.Almost 2 weeks ago we called for a multi-day correction on Nasdaq (NDX) after the price broke below the Inner Higher Lows trend-line and the 1D RSI got rejected on the 70.00 overbought Resistance:
Our view is unchanged and we see a few more days extending this correction to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least or the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level as it happened on the March 13 Low on the long-term Channel Up.
The only probability of this getting invalidated and start rebounding now is the potential buying pressure that the RSI Higher Lows trend-line may apply, which got hit yesterday. However we see more likely the scenario of the RSI transitioning into a Rectangle, having 43.40 as its bottom.
Our target remains 13400, which is a little under the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), that has rejected break-out attempts twice since May 05 2022.
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What if....
what if we have a yield curve that hasn't been inverted this much in 40 years
what if we've enjoyed 15 straight years of bull markets
what if this is just the start of the correction
what if I told you that I've tested 50 indicators and identified that this correction (on a weekly scale) thus far has matched identically to the START of the dot com bubble (on a daily scale)- March 2000 to June 2000
what if I told you that if you scale the duration of start of the dot com crash to this correction, this correction would be 5.9 X the duration of the dot com bubble and this correction will end it 4.5 years.
I'd encourage you to examine the start of the dot com bubble from March 2000 to June 2000 (daily scale) and compare to the current weekly Nasdaq technicals and see for yourself.
I hope this isn't the case, but what if...
Good Luck
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 24 WEEKCME_MINI:NQ1!
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 24 WEEK
NQ continued to rotate. No trades from last week per scenario1.
Weaknesses have manifested, so if you are holding long, may be
a good time to take profit during this toppish structure.
Possible scenarios:
1) Market stuck in a 250pt range, wait till supply/demand is
resolved
Then:
2) Breakout of upper boundary to test 13740
= long at support of upper boundary of range
3) Breakdown of lower boundary of range
= Short on rejection of 12950
4) If you can't live without trading, you may look for long on
support between 12950-13040 | Short on rejection
between 13350-13212
Volume Analysis:
Daily: With the increase in supply volume and toppish market
structure, this may usher in another round of distribution
(i.e. selling)
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14361 13740 13550
13316 12950 10710 - 11068
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
What should we expect in 2023?First I would like to say "Happy New Year" to all my followers and wish you good fortune in 2023.
This chart shows yearly candles in the past 40 years for NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones.
In these charts, you can see yearly changes in 2022, 2009,2008, 2001, and 2000.
To plan your investment strategies in 2023, you need to answer this question:
What stage of an Economic Cycle are we in?
To answer this question you need to know what an Economic Cycle is, and what data can help us determine its current stage.
An economic cycle is the overall state of the economy as it goes through four stages in a cyclical pattern:
- Expansion
- Peak
- Contraction
- Trough
Factors that can help determine the current stage of the economic cycle:
- GDP
- Interest rates
- Total employment
- Consumer spending
What do you think?
What stage of an Economic cycle are we in?
My answer to this question is: Economic cycle has peaked and we will enter the contraction phase in 2023.
Average Contraction Duration, peak to trough between 1854-2022: 17 months.
Once again I wish you a happy new year.
Best,
If you like to read more, here is the link to the article I used as a reference:
www.investopedia.com
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 17 WEEK
CME_MINI:NQ1!
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 17 WEEK
12950 was supporting the market well despite increase
in distribution effort. Market participation was low though, and
shortening of thrust from high to high observed = waning
upward momentum.
Possible scenarios:
1) Market stuck in a 250pt range, wait till supply/demand is
resolved
Then:
2) Breakout of upper boundary to test 13740
= long at support of upper boundary of range
3) Breakdown of lower boundary of range
= Short on rejection of 12950
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Ave vol narrow spread up bar close off high
= Minor weakness
Daily: Higher vol narrow spread down bar close away from low
= minor demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14361 13740 13550 - 137440
12950 10710 - 11068
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NASDAQ Correction for few days then buy the dipNasdaq (NDX) has gone a long way since we called for a rebound on the 1D MA200:
The recent rally within this Channel Up pattern that started in December (its second Bullish Wave), came to an end after it broke the Inner Higher Lows trend-line in similar fashion as the first wave did on February 17. That pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding to a Higher High.
The current 0.5 Fib is on 12460, a little under the March 28 Low and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been basically supporting since mid-January. If the RSI bounces off its Higher Lows trend-line, then the bottom may come earlier. In any case, we will buy this pull-back and target 13400, a potential contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which rejected the August 16 High.
The best level to buy during this run is on the Higher Lows trend-line of the RSI. A similar Higher Lows trend-line during the January bullish leg (note that both sequences started on a Double Bottom), gave 5 clear buy entries.
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Apple Is this market ready to break? This was a significant rebound, almost unimaginably unrealistic... 5-weeks of straight rallying through the tidal waves of bad economic news, rate hikes, QT, geopolitical tensions, ect...
Let's see what holds for August and September, which are two months that aren't great for stocks. If you do short, go to at least the end of September.
RSI and MACD are supporting a sell off. MA puts Apple at $160, and the Lower price of BB is $151. Was this a giant head and shoulder?
First shoulder December 2021, head at March 2022, and now the right shoulder at August 2022? Hmmm
Bullish US100H4 has shown significant bullishness with Monday establishing a low, and subsequent break of structure. I was prepared for a pullback to continue higher, however, price remains bullish with London open.
I am currently on the watch for accumulation at the demand zone to buy. Target is at the next liquidity pool.
Nasdaq Breakdown Analysis 11/04/2023Dear traders Nasdaq was down and after ny session it’s came Back and closed bullish so as you see in my chart I expect price if he reject 12997 and closed bullish it will be chance to buy and if he breks below 12997 and closed bearish it will be Chance to sell wait always for price action trade safe
Good luck
NASDAQ to see a temporary move lower?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12892 (stop at 12822)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 6 days.
Bespoke support is located at 12892.
A move to 13153 will form an intraday bearish Gartley pattern.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 13153 and 13235
Resistance: 13100 / 13153 / 13236
Support: 12892 / 12848 / 12650
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nasdaq to find support at previous highs?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12829 (stop at 12694)
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 13360.
Continued downward momentum from 13238 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday.
The move lower is mixed and volatile, common in corrective sequences.
Bespoke support is located at 12829.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 13159 and 13249
Resistance: 13238 / 13360 / 13734
Support: 12829 / 12649 / 12483
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nasdaq Breakdown Analysis 04/03/2023Dear traders Nasdaq was so powerful last week so it may start to consolidate these first days I except Nasdaq if he breaks above and close in 13200 it will be change to look for buy this area is good to buy and if he rejected and close below 13181 it will be change to look for sell target will be in 13000 trade safe and good luck
20 Reasons for Buy NASDAQ🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
✨ Eagle eye: A long-term analysis of the Nasdaq from 2003 to 2021 shows that the market has achieved back-to-back higher high closings, followed by a one-third correction. This suggests the possibility of another bull run.
📆 Monthly: The market underwent a deep correction of 61% and is expected to close strongly in March with a big bullish momentum candle.
📅 Weekly: The internal bull structure is currently strong, and the 13764 area is an important price level to watch. If the price reaches this level, it could signal a significant announcement. Therefore, I am bullish on the Nasdaq and recommend monitoring this level closely.
🕛 Daily: The Nasdaq is currently extremely bullish.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
🟢 Analysis Time Frame: Daily
1 Price Structure: The price structure of the Nasdaq is currently bullish.
2 Pattern Candle Chart: A flag continuation pattern is forming, with back-to-back momentum candles.
3 Volume: The volume is currently decreasing, indicating a correction is expected.
4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: The Nasdaq's unconventional RSI is in a super bullish zone, above 60.
5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: The Bollinger bands are touching the upper band, indicating full bullish volatility.
6 Strength ADX: The Nasdaq's ADX shows that the bull trend has just gained strength.
7 Sentiment ROC: The rate of change for the Nasdaq is the strongest compared to other indices.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: 4-Hour
Entry Time Frame Structure: The 4-hour chart indicates a bullish structure.
Entry Move: As per the analysis, a correction is expected, so it is better to wait until the price reaches our desired levels before entering the market.
Support Resistance Base: The mid-level of the move supports.
FIB: We will use the trend line breakout for entry.
☑️ Final Comments: It is advisable to buy when the correction is complete.
💡Decision: Buy
🚀Entry: 12713
✋Stop Loss: 12493
🎯Take Profit: 13600
😊Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:4.26
🕛 Expected Duration:
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 03 WEEK
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 03 WEEK
Both Scenario1 short from 12950 and Scenario2 retracement
long both worked well. Market likely to test 13740.
Possible scenarios:
1) Market test 13740 = long on retracement //
support at 12950
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Ave vol up bar closed toward high = non-trend
changing demand
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = non-trend changing
demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14361 13740 12950-12678
10710 - 11068
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Nasdaq to see a higher correction?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12677 (stop at 12577)
Traded to the highest level in 30 weeks.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Bespoke support is located at 12677.
12682 has been pivotal.
Our profit targets will be 12927 and 12977
Resistance: 13025 / 13200 / 13350
Support: 12677 / 12655 / 12513
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.