NASDAQ Channel Down emerged. Trade the rejection or break-out.Nasdaq has suffered the most during January's correction. The Lower Lows created a new Channel Down which we have to consider, despite having the 1D RSI make a rebound from oversold levels and a bottom formation similar to early October, mid-May and early March 2021.
The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is the first natural Resistance. If the price gets rejected at the top of the Channel Down (Lower Highs trend-line), we'll have a sell signal targeting the Lower Lows trend-line.
On the other hand, a break above the Channel Down along with closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), will be a confirmation that the index has recovered the long-term bullish trend and will be a buy signal towards the Higher Highs trend-line with a rough technical target the 4.0 Fibonacci extension at 17515.
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Ndxsignals
NASDAQ RSI hit the long-term Buy ZoneNasdaq is giving a double long-term buy signal as besides the RSI on the 1D time-frame entering the Buy Zone that has been in effect since the March 2020 market crash, the price itself hit the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the November 2020 U.S. elections bottom. The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is right below as it was on all 3 major bottoms of 2021 (March 05, May 13, October 04).
We expect the Channel Up top again around 18000 (1.786 Fibonacci extension) by the end of March.
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NASDAQ testing the 1D MA50. Buy opportunity.I haven't updated my NDX outlook since December 17 but so far it appears to be trading according to plan after accurately catching that bottom:
Today the index made contact with the 1D MA50 again (blue trend-line) and that's a pattern we've seen before twice within this multi-month Channel Up on the chart.
As you see, every time Nasdaq approaches the previous High (Fib 1.0) following a Channel Up bottom, the price pulls back to the 1D MA50 (orange circle) and then the rise continues all the way to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we treat this pull-back as a mid-term buy opportunity, especially for those who missed the December bottom. Our target is 17600.
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NDX Nasdaq 100 Santa Rally?The Santa Rally is set to start on Monday, Dec. 27.
This period gave positive return for the S&P 500 78.9% of the time.
Since 1950, the average return of the Santa rally was 1.33%.
How do you think this will be reflected in the Nasdaq 100 index?
The reasons could be optimism over the new year ahead or holiday spending.
NASDAQ may break even higher than its Channel UpAs mentioned on my previous analysis, the Lower High divergence on the 1D RSI was the signal that Nasdaq would pull-back. The small technical correction eventually ended at around -7% from the top, exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As I've mentioned before, this is generally considered a solid first buy entry.
The current chart shows that after a similar correction (8 to 8.50% roughly), NDX always starts a 2 month rise towards the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. The point of bullish break-out is typically when the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, which is currently close to happening. Previously that has coincided with the break above the internal Lower Highs trend-line.
The 1.786 Fib extension is currently a little over 17700. If that takes place within the next 2 months, we may see the dominant 9-month Channel Up break upwards and transcend into the Diverging Channel Up displayed in orange. Regardless of that, our next two long-term targets are 17000 and 17600.
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NASDAQ resisting the selling pressure. Well supported for now.This is an update on my previous Nasdaq analysis where I called for potential further rise within a narrower Channel Up at the top of the longer-term Channel before a new technical correction comes:
So far this view has been confirmed as the Support of the previous Low (bold black line) is holding. See the similarities between now and the mid July - August Channel Up. The RSI sequences are almost the same following an identical RSI bearish divergence on Lower Highs. That should ultimately lead to a blow-off top around 17000.
If the small Channel Up breaks downwards and cracks the previous Low, I expect NDX to seek the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and if that doesn't hold either, possibly make a Low on the bottom of the 9-month Channel Up or even the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line.
Trade accordingly and with caution as Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is very likely to shape the fundamental landscape of this month with regards to the Fed's taper program.
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NASDAQ The level that has to holdNasdaq is ahead of critical crossroads as the Lower Highs on the RSI on the 1D time-frames show a bearish divergence against the Higher Highs of the actual price.
When the 1D RSI formed this sequence in the past, the index dropped at least -8% but only if the previous Low broke (black support). In mid July the Low held and Nasdaq continued on a small Channel Up towards one last Higher High before eventually correcting -8%.
As a result, I expect a Higher High as long as the previous low holds. If broken then a bottom on the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line is possible. In either case the next bullish target is 17000.
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NASDAQ 4H Golden Cross aims at 16300 long-termMy most recent Nasdaq post was a buy signal on the 1D MA50:
Currently we have a buy continuation signal for the long-term towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (16300) with a potential short-term pull-back to add more longs on the 0.5 Fib retracement or the 1D MA100 (red trend-line). This is based on the May - June fractal whose pattern is so far following in great detail the current price action.
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NASDAQ Testing the 1D MA50It's been some times since my last update on Nasdaq. As you see on my previous idea below, the break below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) turned out to be accurate as the index made a Higher Low at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up and rebounded:
The first bearish barrier broke when the Lower Highs (inner) trend-line broke. As you see on all past fractals within the Channel Up (since November 2020), that signaled the start of a rise to a new All Time High (and Higher High for the Channel Up). However as the price is now testing the 1D MA50, if rejected, it may take another week or so before resuming the uptrend, assuming the 1D MA100 holds as Support, in a similar way to the March sequence.
The long-term targets on Nasdaq remain 15700 and 16350 in extension.
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NDXWe hit my IH&S pattern but could not break up from the rising wedge. Instead we have broken down, I think we are heading to that weekly 50 ema at 13,500
NASDAQ Start looking for a buy near the 1D MA100 after the FedTwo weeks ago NDX formed a peak formation at the top of the multi-month Channel Up (Higher Highs) and I posted the following chart calling for a strong correction:
As you see that correction is currently underway and having broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is looking for the patterns strongest Support, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been the most optimal buy level since April 2020.
In fact more recently (March and May), the index rebounds shortly after it breaks marginally below the 1D MA100. With the Fed meeting tomorrow being crucial for the market as it either ensures the continuation of very low rate policy (bullish) or signals a start to raising rates (bearish), expect high volatility that may cross the 1D MA100 momentarily on a wick and recover quickly. If the peak I called two weeks ago is the (A) leg, then we are about to complete (B) which on a 1 year basis has been the best buy entry.
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NASDAQ initiating a strong correction?This idea is a continuation to my analysis posted on August 26:
It appears that the leg count and the similarities (so far) of the current price action with the January-February sequence was correct. If the pattern continues to replicate in the same way, then Nasdaq is ahead of a strong correction as this suggests we are currently at the top of the last leg (A).
In February 2021 that resulted in almost a -12% correction that broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before rebounding. -12% from the top suggests a pull-back value of 13840 while the 1D MA100 is currently at 14417. Perhaps a Fibonacci extension measurement from the last Higher Low (the bounce on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)), would be more accurate. In February the correction stopped exactly on the 1.618. Currently the 1.618 Fib ext is at 14176.50.
If this is indeed the start of a similar correction within the long-term Channel Up, is that a reasonable target for you?
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NASDAQ approaching a medium-term topFollowing my most recent analysis on Nasdaq (see chart below), the Channel Up where the index has been trading on for almost 1 year, has traded to perfection:
At the moment, the price is trading exactly on the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the initial Channel Up (blue) and if broken, a new Channel Up (red) may emerge on a marginal divergence. This brings forward the following interesting fractal. Since February of this year, Nasdaq seems to be repeating the September 2020 - January 2021 pattern. As you see on the chart, the (A) to (E) path count is almost identical and it this is the case, then we are currently at the completion of wave (E) with only the blow-off top of (A) remaining. Notice how the RSI sequences are also fairly similar.
Therefore it may be a good idea for investors to pause buying for a few days/ weeks and return right after the index makes contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again as it has done on the last three major buy events within the Channel Up (October 30 2020, March 04 2021, May 11 2021).
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NASDAQ Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded (almost) on the 4H MA300 (yellow trend-line), which last time (March 05) formed a bottom. Also the 1D RSI hit the Support Zone that has been in effect for a year.
Target: 14400 (slightly below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
P.S. A long-term possibility on Nasdaq:
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NASDAQ - Elliott Wave CorrectionShort Term Bearish to complete the 5th wave of ABC correction.
- Happy Trading.
NASDAQ may be about to shoot up. But is the future bright?That's of course the million dollar question and on this post is based on a fractal analysis with the 1998 - 2000 sequence.
As you see today Nasdaq is currently trading within a Channel Up up and down the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) similar to what it did in 1999. Both Channels formed after a very aggressive rise, which took place after a lengthy yearly period of extreme market volatility (1, 2, 3, 4) where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) got breached repeatedly. The 1W MA200 though (green dotted line) remained intact, which is what maintained the long-term bullish trend of the Bull Cycle. In late 1999 after the Channel Up broke upwards, an equally aggressive rise took place that formed the peak of the Bull Cycle and the historic pop of the Dotcom Bubble. The Bear Cycle started and in early 2001 the 1W MA200 broke.
It goes without saying that this is a very simplistic fractal comparison and can't be an investment strategy on its own, but is fundamental/ news framework that led to the 2000 Dotcom bubble much different from today's aggressive economic stimulus?
Let's make an interesting discussion down below!
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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