NDXWe hit my IH&S pattern but could not break up from the rising wedge. Instead we have broken down, I think we are heading to that weekly 50 ema at 13,500
Ndxsignals
NASDAQ Start looking for a buy near the 1D MA100 after the FedTwo weeks ago NDX formed a peak formation at the top of the multi-month Channel Up (Higher Highs) and I posted the following chart calling for a strong correction:
As you see that correction is currently underway and having broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is looking for the patterns strongest Support, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been the most optimal buy level since April 2020.
In fact more recently (March and May), the index rebounds shortly after it breaks marginally below the 1D MA100. With the Fed meeting tomorrow being crucial for the market as it either ensures the continuation of very low rate policy (bullish) or signals a start to raising rates (bearish), expect high volatility that may cross the 1D MA100 momentarily on a wick and recover quickly. If the peak I called two weeks ago is the (A) leg, then we are about to complete (B) which on a 1 year basis has been the best buy entry.
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NASDAQ initiating a strong correction?This idea is a continuation to my analysis posted on August 26:
It appears that the leg count and the similarities (so far) of the current price action with the January-February sequence was correct. If the pattern continues to replicate in the same way, then Nasdaq is ahead of a strong correction as this suggests we are currently at the top of the last leg (A).
In February 2021 that resulted in almost a -12% correction that broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before rebounding. -12% from the top suggests a pull-back value of 13840 while the 1D MA100 is currently at 14417. Perhaps a Fibonacci extension measurement from the last Higher Low (the bounce on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)), would be more accurate. In February the correction stopped exactly on the 1.618. Currently the 1.618 Fib ext is at 14176.50.
If this is indeed the start of a similar correction within the long-term Channel Up, is that a reasonable target for you?
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NASDAQ approaching a medium-term topFollowing my most recent analysis on Nasdaq (see chart below), the Channel Up where the index has been trading on for almost 1 year, has traded to perfection:
At the moment, the price is trading exactly on the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the initial Channel Up (blue) and if broken, a new Channel Up (red) may emerge on a marginal divergence. This brings forward the following interesting fractal. Since February of this year, Nasdaq seems to be repeating the September 2020 - January 2021 pattern. As you see on the chart, the (A) to (E) path count is almost identical and it this is the case, then we are currently at the completion of wave (E) with only the blow-off top of (A) remaining. Notice how the RSI sequences are also fairly similar.
Therefore it may be a good idea for investors to pause buying for a few days/ weeks and return right after the index makes contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again as it has done on the last three major buy events within the Channel Up (October 30 2020, March 04 2021, May 11 2021).
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NASDAQ Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded (almost) on the 4H MA300 (yellow trend-line), which last time (March 05) formed a bottom. Also the 1D RSI hit the Support Zone that has been in effect for a year.
Target: 14400 (slightly below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
P.S. A long-term possibility on Nasdaq:
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NASDAQ - Elliott Wave CorrectionShort Term Bearish to complete the 5th wave of ABC correction.
- Happy Trading.
NASDAQ may be about to shoot up. But is the future bright?That's of course the million dollar question and on this post is based on a fractal analysis with the 1998 - 2000 sequence.
As you see today Nasdaq is currently trading within a Channel Up up and down the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) similar to what it did in 1999. Both Channels formed after a very aggressive rise, which took place after a lengthy yearly period of extreme market volatility (1, 2, 3, 4) where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) got breached repeatedly. The 1W MA200 though (green dotted line) remained intact, which is what maintained the long-term bullish trend of the Bull Cycle. In late 1999 after the Channel Up broke upwards, an equally aggressive rise took place that formed the peak of the Bull Cycle and the historic pop of the Dotcom Bubble. The Bear Cycle started and in early 2001 the 1W MA200 broke.
It goes without saying that this is a very simplistic fractal comparison and can't be an investment strategy on its own, but is fundamental/ news framework that led to the 2000 Dotcom bubble much different from today's aggressive economic stimulus?
Let's make an interesting discussion down below!
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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