Noble Corporation | NEEnergy stocks score biggest rise in a month as OPEC+ cuts begin
Energy stocks closed an otherwise mediocre week in strong fashion, as oil traders who have grappled with concerns over the global demand outlook may finally see signs of tightening in the oil market.
Saudi Arabia and Russia started the week announcing fresh production cuts that will bring total reductions by OPEC+ to 5M bbl/day, or ~5% of global oil demand.
Supporting prices this week, U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected and gasoline inventories posted a large draw, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.
But gains were capped as the Federal Reserve appeared to be headed for further interest rate hikes, possibly at its policy meeting later this month.
And while Saudi Arabia limits its production, supply is gaining elsewhere; Iran, for example, is increasingly circumventing U.S. sanctions, with oil shipments of ~1.6M bbl/day on average in May and June, according to Kpler and Petro Logistics, more than double the level of about a year ago and the highest since 2018.
Separately, the Biden administration said late Friday it will purchase another 6M barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Front-month Nymex crude oil (CL1:COM) for August delivery gained more than $2.00/bbl Friday to push the U.S. benchmark +4.5% for the week to $73.86/bbl, its highest settlement since May 24, while September Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed the week +4% to $78.47/bbl, its best settlement since May 1.
U.S. natural gas futures (NG1:COM) closed -7.7% for the week, settling at $2.58/MMBtu, as volatile weather in much of the U.S. complicated the outlook for demand.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (DBO), (USL), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU), (UNG), (UGAZF), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)
The top energy sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) finished the week -0.5%, placing it in the middle of the pack among the S&P's 11 sectors, but closed +2.1% on Friday, its biggest single-day gain in a month.
Oilfield services companies (OIH) Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes (BKR) ranked as three of Friday's top four gainers on the S&P 500, +8.6%, +7.8% and +4.8%, respectively.
Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (RIG) +20.4%, (WAVE) +19.2%, (OII) +18.3%, (NE) +18.1%, (DO) +17.1%, (TDW) +16.4%, (NRT) +16.3%, (NINE) +13.9%, (IPI) +13.2%, (LBRT) +12.4%.
Top 5 decliners in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (ORGN) -12.7%, (PPSI) -11.8%, (NPWR) -10.7%, (MARPS) -9.9%, (MTR) -9.3%.
Since June of 2020, Noble Corporation Plc has undergone a substantial transformation while drastically reducing its total liabilities and ongoing financing expenses.Since June 2020, NE has filed and exited bankruptcy, acquired its former competitor Pacific Drilling, regained NYSE listing, and completed a merger with Maersk drilling. Over the period, total liabilities and quarterly net interest expenses were reduced 65% and 74% respectively.
Over the last several quarters, some offshore drillers have reported growing revenue.Quarterly revenue is plotted from June 2020 forward for NE and its offshore drilling peers. Recently, revenues across the industry have rebounded from their early 2021 lows. NE quarterly revenue (plotted in dark blue) has increased from $220M in mid-2020 to $586M in FQ4 22 (+166%).
While quarterly revenue has more than doubled recently, NE has also become profitable. Normalized net income has increased from -19% in mid-2020 to its most recent value of 23%. FQ1 23 estimated revenues are expected to remain elevated at $540.5M while decreasing slightly from FQ4 22 revenues of $586M.
Based on the peer average EV/Sales and estimated FY 23 revenue, NE's fair value share price was estimated at $ 62
NE
Bullish Indicators Surfacing for $SPWR -- Still a CLEAR LONG oppTriangle area lends confirmation consolidation may be short: Bull run likely follows. Current entry point pretty solid, too.
Will likely surpass annual high w/ target just over 11/s; high upside could be higher still.
Just a Short but sweet touch on Sun Power.
Happy Trading/Investing!!
-BDR
Fourth Wave of FuelCell Consolidation: THE Major Breakout? LONG!The three periods of consolidation have been outlined and $FCEL appears to be entering the fourth wave. Note the general upward trend of the first three. This one could be the one that leads to its massive breakout. This current period of consolidation could be the longest-lasting, requiring a tiny bit of patience, but due to that, it also could be the big boy that provides the LONG opp that was already discussed last week.
Happy Trading!
-BDR
$SPWR a Strong Long; Great Entrance Point -- BULLISH!With the natural energy sector booming, $SPWR has made a great play thus far. Entering on Monday, it has gained since and looks to still be in for a strong corrective wave. The ultimate potential of this is not fully clear. However, thus far, the entire sector has had a tremendous past month. It is a well-proven company trading much lower than it once did, but with the entrance, both low and cheap, the correction could be **Substantial**
Happy trading!!
-BDR
$FCEL STILL a strong entry Point: Quiet Play of Week Though I entered FCEL Positions on Monday, I stayed quiet for a little bit about it. The consolidation led to the thought a BULL RUN was coming, and the past two-weeks really have been just that. The entire natural energy sector has had a great overall past month, rallying on days the S&P is down - and even on days the NASDAQ itself does. FCEL is a crazy corrective wave to chart the potential of, really, and it is not too late to enter - though a wait on a slight retest isn't a horrible consideration necessarily.
The 3.75-4.00 range should ultimately be realized pretty easily here (probably before the end of 4th Q if not even FAR SOONER)... but beyond that (in terms of a possible annual high as mentioned w/ other Natural energy pet $SPWR), it's tough to call the ultimate upside.
I probably should have called this when I entered @ 2.8 per share, but I wanted to wait a bit for some stronger confirmation. And well, it's not too late to enter, though this cat has been out of the bag all week if anyone's paid attention.
NE - DAILY CHART Hi, today we are going to talk about Noble Corp and its current landscape.
Noble Corp is poised to receive increasing attention from the market as relevant events are taking place. The offshore drilling contractor named the industry veteran Stephen Butz as its new CFO, Butz previously was CFO at Rowan and Hercules Offshore and can represent a great change for the company. Now we must follow the next steps to see if he can reverse Noble bad momentum.
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Offshore Long term perpectiveI remain bullish on offshore drilling and services. They have been in long term bear slide. But they have begun to rise on much increased volume. A .236- .382 retraction seems reasonable to me long term. These levels also appear to at expected resistance levels.
Process your way.
Long ESVStop below the large uptrend channel dating back to the early 90's. Target the 250/300 ema on the monthly.
Long RowanBullish price structure. Ideal stop below 17. 4x ev/ebitda.
Healthy cash flow and balance sheet.
Joint venture with Saudi Aramco.
Long RDCRowan has a joint venture with Saudi Aramco. Cash flow is healthy and enough backlog to sustain through 2020 imo. 3.5x ev/ebitda.
Long DOLong DO, offshore driller owned by Loews. Most bullish offshore chart. Holding tenken-sen on the weekly.