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Necklinetrader

USDCAD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe Bearish trend that began in October 2020 appears to have found a bottom @ around CA$1.24500 as the pattern transpose into what looks like an Inverse Head and Shoulder - a very strong reversal pattern. My last publication on this pair still holds as I continue to look for Bullish expectations (see link below for reference purposes) following signs of positive expectations from the Greenback as the Non-Farm Payrolls report indicated that the U.S. economy added 379,000 jobs in February, a report that significantly exceeded analyst expectations. Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Inverse H & S) Observation: i. Breakout of my Key level @ CA$1.26000 late February 2021 followed by multiple rejections of this level during last week trading session supports the expectation of a rally in the nearest future as the price remains supported at this level. ii. After a significant Bearish Impulse leg, the appearance of an Inverse Head & Shoulder keeps my expectation LONG in the coming week(s). iii. Bearish Leg that began Oct. 2020 falls to make a Shoulder and then rises to the Neckline(CA$1.27500); price then falls again and below the former Shoulder to make a Head and then rises again; finally, the price falls again but not as far as the second Shoulder with a good possibility of a Breakout/Retest expectation of Neckline @ CA$1.27500. iv. Even as the CA$1.26000/1.25500 area remains a strong Demand area for me, a Breakout/Retest confirmation of Neckline might be a very good area you might want to join the rally. Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 8 to 15days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
3
GBPNZD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upFollowing Downing street’s lockdown exit plan; the Pounds appears to have found a platform to rise against the Kiwi as confidence in the UK economy resumes! With over 300pips in our favour since my last publication on this channel (see link below for reference purposes), we might be on the verge of a very LONG rally in the coming week(s) as the price seems to have established a Support @ NZ$1.88500/1.90000 area - a level which has been respected since the beginning of the year since the Breakout on the 15th of January 2021. Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (DB) Observation: i. The Bearish Impulse leg that began in March 2020 appeared to have found a bottom at around NZ$1.85000 to make a Double Bottom structure - a strong reversal pattern that incites Bullish tendencies. ii. My Key level identified @ NZ$1.90500 as been an area that dictated the momentum of price action since Nov 2020. iii. This Key level that has been a Supplication zone since Nov 2020 appears to have become a strong Demand level since Breakout (Jan 2021) followed by sharp rejection. iv. A quick look at my weekly chart supports completion of a reversal pattern as last week trading session culminates with a beautiful "hammer candle"! v. Last week Friday trading session experienced an engulfing Bullish candle spring out of Demand level to emphasize the strong presence of Buyers at this juncture in the market. vi. This been said, I shall be looking for buying opportunity anywhere above my Key level @ NZ$1.90500 in the coming week(s) to take advantage of this rally. Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 800 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 20 to 40 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
2
GBPNZD | Perspective for the new weekDespite the UK’s coronavirus pandemic situation... I still hold on to an overall Bullish perspective due to the reversal structure (the culmination of 127.2 ext Bearish run) cited on my Daily chart; I am of the opinion that price is at a juncture where the opportunity for a quick counter-trend trade is possible before the rally begins! Tendency: Short term Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Double Top | Supply & Demand Observation: i. Double Top: The appearance of an extremely bearish reversal pattern forms after the price reach a peak at two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs (NZ$1.92150/1.91980). ii. Though it is generally accepted that sell confirmation happens once the price falls below the demand level equal to the low between the two peaks (NZ$1.92150/1.91980), Considering the present pattern, I shall be tweaking this concept lil' bit by making a Sell window at the new Supply level @ NZ$1.91000 in the coming week. iii. For those who are a little bit cautious, we can hold till price breaks neckline @ NZ$1.89000 area for confirmation. iv. Please note: I am of the opinion that the exhaustion of bearish move after Breakdown of the neckline will be resulting in a Big rally in the future! Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3 Potential Duration: 8 to 15 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
7
CHFJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upWith 200 pips in our favour since my last publication, it appears we are close to another trading opportunity should the pattern transpose into expectations. What appears to be a temporary Breakout of Y118.000 on the 15th Feb 2021 reveals that there is a strong presence to buying pressure around this area and could be a level to focus on in the nearest future for buying possibilities but before this happens, find below my expectations; Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) Observation: i. The strong engulfing Bearish candle in the last couple of days after the breakout of Y118.000 is a sign that we might be experiencing "quick sells" - a correction wave in anticipation of a rally in the coming week(s). ii. Since the beginning of the year buyers have done a great deal to keep price above Key level hereby confirming to us how powerful their presence is at this juncture in the market. ii. In this regard, I have found two levels (Buy window I & II) to look out for buying options in the coming week(s). iii. The Bullish Trendline on the weekly chart shall be a yardstick to maintain the Bullish bias as a Breakdown/retest of this line shall render this bias invalid. iv. Now, if price decides not to reach any of the Buy windows, a close above Y118.000 could be a good opportunity to join the rally... Trade consciously :) Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 15 to 25 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
2
EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekA simple structure appears to have finally presented a long term trading opportunity for me on the EURUSD! During the later part of last year, we experienced price making a final Breakout of Key level @ $1.19600 to make a new high as price rejects and find Support at this level (5th Feb 2021) with positive signs of good days for the Euro in the nearest future. As I continue to wait for fundamental headlines related to a new stimulus package in the US to support my bias in the coming week(s), find below my expectations; Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Now that price finally finds new Support at Key level area since breaking out of $1.19600, I shall be on standby to hop in a rally within/above this level. ii. A Double bottom could be a possible pattern to look for if the price comes back to the Demand zone. iii. Should price find it unnecessary to come back into the Demand zone, a Breakout/Retest of $1.2100 appears to be another level to look for buying opportunity in the coming week(s). iv. For my cautious traders, a Breakout/Retest of $1.2100 could be a viable level to open a position :) Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 15 to 25 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
1
ERUCAD | Perspective for the new weekBagged 320pips in our direction before the rally began in my last speculation on this pair (see link below). Despite an overall Bullish perspective for the Euro, most of the new year has seen price hustling below CA$1.55400, a feat showing less confidence in the Euro. The unattractive net change in unemployment rate released last week mirrors a negative implication for consumer spending which has an adverse effect on economic growth making the Canadian Dollar less attractive too. This explains the indecisive pattern represented on the chart (parallel channel) but following the positive figures coming out of economic release last week for the Euro, a promising future for the Euro over CAD in the coming if the price does not break below CA$1.52500 (completing a Double Bottom structure) appears to be feasible. Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) | Supply & Demand Observation: i. Characterized by an indecisive pattern since mid last year, the price has been caught within a range with no clear sign of a rally or decline. ii. This been said, it appears we still can make a trading decision based on certain setup seen on the chart. iii. A possible formation of a Double Bottom is unfolding if price did not break below demand zone @ CA$1.52500 in the coming week(s). iv. It is advisable to be very conservative at this juncture for a long position can only be really confirmed if price breaks above the Neckline @ CA$1.55400 (outright buy or buy from correction). v. It is worthy to note here that, any significant Breakdown of demand zone @ CA$1.52500 shall consider this bias invalid... Trade consciously! vi. A significant Breakdown of demand zone @ CA$1.52500 might see price head for CA$1.49000 area before the rally begins. Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 300 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3 Potential Duration: 5 to 10 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
4
USDCHF | Perspective for the new weekThe price moved in our direction (180pips) as predicted in my last speculation on this pair (see link below for reference purposes). After a 2 month long battle, Buyers finally broke above the key Fr0.89300 level (neckline) on Thursday... A complete reversal pattern is formed (Inverse Head and Shoulder) as I anticipate a rally soon. Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Reversal pattern (Inverse H & S)| Breakout | Supply & Demand Observation: i. It is fascinating to see how my Key Level @ Fr0.89000 becomes a decision maker last week after an emphatic breakout. ii. Buyers finally redeems the hope of going Long in the coming week(s). iii. After finding bottom @ Fr0.87600, Price has continued to appreciate as it keeps finding Higher Highs till the Breakout happens. iv. I can not ignore the appearance of the Inverse H & S (a very strong reversal pattern); Bearish Leg that began mid-2020 falls to make a Shoulder and then rises to the Neckline(Fr0.89000); price then falls again and below the former Shoulder to make a Head and then rises again; finally, the price falls again but not as far as the second Shoulder to usher in a successful Breakout. v. Looking forward to a correction into Demand zone as I shall watch out for significant spring up from this proposed new Demand area. Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 10 to 20 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
1
NZDCHF | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upIt has been a good ride since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes) has price cruised 180pips in our direction and it appears we shall be looking forward to Higher Highs in the coming week(s) as the structure continues to support a Bullish run. Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Reversal pattern | Supply & Demand | Double Top | Breakout Observation: i. I noticed that Fr0.64200 has served as either a Supply or Demand level in the last 30 days and this makes it an area to focus on in the coming week as price finally comes back after the Breakout (Retest). ii. Since the Breakout (@Fr0.64200) that happened during the first week of February 2021, the price has been going through a corrective phase. iii. Our duty at this juncture in the market is to seek the expiration of the correction and find a Demand level to join the rally. iv. Last week saw price form what looks like a Double Bottom; However, I shall be patient to seek confirmation as the price might decline to find 61.8/78.6% retracement of Leg AB (@Fr0.63900) before the rally begins. v. As we can see, we might be looking forward to the completion of a harmonic pattern (AB = CD) in the coming week(s) as Buyers gain momentum. vi. And for the cautious traders :) - a Breakout/Retest of Neckline @ Fr0.64500 might be a good signal for you... smiles. Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 130 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 5 to 12 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
4
NZDCAD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThis is a follow up on my previous publication (see link below for reference purposes) on this pair as the price action continues to flow according to expectations! Unlike my previous publication, Excited to let you know that I have captured a distinct and tradable pattern on this pair. The appearance of a Double Top pattern - a strong Reversal structure appears to fine-tune a Bearish setup as Buyers gradually lose momentum and price continues to show tendencies of risking a further decline in the nearest future. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Reversal pattern | Supply & Demand | Double Top | Channel Observation: i. Since late January 2021, the price has been caught within a Channel and since the Breakdown of CA$0.91850 followed by a significant rejection of this level... my Bearish bias becomes a little stronger. ii. This been said, I am anticipating a significant Breakdown/Retest of CA$0.91400 in the coming week(s) to join the decline as CA$0.91900/0.91500 remains a level to watch out for in this regard. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 2 to 7 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2