GBPUSD has the possibility of price correctionBased on the wave counter that has been done, you can see that in the 4-hour time frame, there is a lot of possibility and potential to reduce the price to at least 1.1955.
Neely
Is Crypto Waiting for VanEck Bitcoin ETF Before Take-Off? (EW)Follow my twitter: @Intuit_Trading
Neely-Elliott Wave is suggesting that BTCUSD is in wave-E of a contracting triangle with reverse alternation or wave-B of a new advance, and will remain in a neutral environment for the next 6 weeks. The EW time target aligns perfectly with the potential October 18th approval of the VanEck BTC ETF. This ETF in particular has a very high chance of approval because of one big reason - precedent. VanEck has brought to market many original complex financial exchange traded products - they're the good ol' boys.
On a more fundamental basis, the VanEck ETF is the first one that is based on an OTC exchange index, rather than a retail exchange index. There is a lot of precedent for regulated OTC indexes, whereas there is absolutely no precedent for a retail crypto exchange index, which is the main reason why every previous ETF has been rejected. The SEC can't "prevent manipulation" (ie, manipulate the market themselves) on retail crypto exchanges, they can however do so on regulated OTC exchanges that compose the VanEck index. There is also precedent for ETFs composed of significantly more volatile assets than BTC. I think that by switching to an OTC index instead of a retail index, VanEck will have successfully courted the SEC into allowing this ETF to pass. However, until it's official the market will remain neutral. Also after the BTC ETF is approved, it will set a precedent and we will soon see ETFs for every other major crypto being released on the retail market.
Neely River Theory suggests that the best way to play this market environment is to buy bull call option spreads, long DEC19 10000 calls and short DEC19 11000 calls. This bullish vertical spread strategy allows for safer profits to be generated while the market remains range bound with a slight upward bias. Roll into new calls if trade value goes up 60% or price goes above 12000, and exit if value goes down 20-30%. (Warning: Experimental)
Tron Correction Looks Just Like BTC in 2014-17 (Elliott Wave)After very close inspection, it appears that TRX is in a pattern that is extremely similar to the correction that occured on BTC during 2014-17, before the previous "Alt Season" began. It's quite uncanny actually.
These rules and guidelines end up working perfectly on BOTH of the above charts.
Violent Wave-A
Shallow and relatively long (time-wise) Wave-B
Timewise A+B=C, B+C=D, and C+D=E (all common time EW targets)
Wave-D is an expanding triangle
Wave-E is a double or triple three
Wave-E retraced Wave-D less than 61% (as would be expected if wave-D was a real expanding triangle)
The channeling between B-D and A-C goes from parallel to contracting
There was consolidation into the apex of the triangle
Wave-E broke away from the triangle and then returned to the apex after wave-x of E
At a slightly lower degree:
Wave-b of B makes a lower low
Wave-c of B ended at a lower high relative to the high of wave-c of B
Wave-d of D ended at a higher low relative to the low of wave-d of D
Wave-e of D was very violent and followed by a violent wave-a of E
1st abcde of Wave-E is a contracting triangle
2nd abcde of Wave-E is a neutral triangle
On the dimensions of wave structure, time, and channeling, these waves are uncannily similar. On the dimension of price there are some slight differences, but ultimately the structure is so similar at this point I'm pretty confident that the long-term correction on TRX will end in September, when Wave-E is equal in time to Waves-C+D, and at a higher price than it is now. Also because the move to follow after the long-term correction is likely to be comparable to december 2017 we could be over ATH well before the end of the year.
Just to note this is me applying my analysis in the same way to both charts, rather than forcing one count onto another chart, and it's giving me the same count on both charts, which is also by far the best count i've found for both pairs because both counts fit into ALL required Neely-Elliott rules. There's really no other count that could fit into all the rules here that I can see, especially when time rules are taken into consideration.
Double Three with Wolfe Wave Double three since the beginning of correction at 17,5k.
WXY with the Y = triple three WXYXZ
Plus a Wolfe Wave that with the ETA and EPA show us that Bitcoin could reach 12k till feb or march of 2019.
Why the Bearish Elliott Triangle Break Down on BTC Was a FailureLast month I was watching for Bitcoin prices to fall to under 4000 this month. However, that never happened, in fact, the bears lost all their momentum at 5700, and instead of breaking down further, created a massive bullish divergence.
Normally, when a triangle breaks down the post-triangular thrust should be at-least as powerful as the biggest leg of the triangle, in this case wave-a. I have painted that scenario in yellow. However, you can clearly see we did not do that, and also in the same amount of time that wave-(a) took to drop 65%, we've only dropped 25%. So clearly bears are starting to lose a lot of momentum here. They've also failed to take us to significantly lower prices despite all the time they've had to do so. All this evidence points to this being a failed break down from this triangle, meaning that the above count is incorrect.
Other reasons why this count is very unlikely: First of all, wave-(a) is definitely not impulsive. It violates the overlap and extension rules, two critical rules that both cannot be simultaneously violated, as well as it's internal structure which appears to be a corrective expanding triangle. A Flat can be ruled out because wave-(b) is too small in price. Wave-c is also bigger than 0.618 of wave-a which makes it less likely to be a real contracting triangle. Wave-e is also very small in time and price compared to the rest of the triangle. The structure of the post-triangular thrust also appears to be corrective and not impulsive.
There's a remote possibility that we actually haven't created the real wave-e yet, but that is unlikely due to the fact that wave-(a) isn't impulsive, and wave-d lacks alternation in price, time and complexity compared to wave-b, and wave-c is bigger than 0.618 of wave-a in price. All these factors lead to the probability of a larger bearish triangle being very very low.
The next best count is the one that I have published recently. Some reasons why this count is better is because it conforms to all Neely-Elliott rules, has all required price and time relations, fits in with the momentum and harmonic analysis, and fits into the larger and smaller pictures. It's also price and time similar to the 6-month contracting triangle we had in mid-2013. Since the probability of the alternative count is so low, and the probability of the bullish count being very high, I suspect that we should see significantly higher price by next month.
On the short-term chart, we also have many consecutive waves that are all very time and price similar, leading to a high probability that a diametric or symmetrical pattern is forming and nearing it's completion now, which will complete wave-e of the bullish triangle and begin a new uptrend. The alternate to that count, forming an x-wave after wave-g, is very unlikely due to the size of the x-wave, and also that it doesn't fit into the larger picture very much at all. Because the bearish counts on all time frames are incredibly weak and flawed, it gives the bull case a much stronger probability of being the correct count, though we'll have to wait and see how this plays out to know for sure.
All constructive comments and questions are welcomed. Like and follow for more ideas.
Bitcoin Preparing for Deep Retracement to Sub-600 (Elliott Wave)
The smallest degree shown here appears to be finishing a fairly clear double zigzag. On the 60m chart you can see a confirmed terminal wave 5 of c which likely puts us at the end of the larger pattern as well, though, the small possibility of this forming into a triple zigzag can't be fully ruled out, it is also very unlikely. With that in mind this double zigzag is very likely completed and will be confirmed shortly at which point it may be a good idea to get very aggressive with this trade until it reaches about a 70-80% retracement of wave (b), which is the common retracement for a double zigzag. Wave (c) will also likely relate to wave (a) by 1.0 in time so this could potentially end right after quarterly settlement at the end of the year, which would mean this is potentially the top for the next couple of months, until we get a new bull run which should be much stronger than wave (b) and retrace wave (c) faster than it was formed to be fully confirmed.
There are also really big daily bearish divergences that look ready to pop and a perfect double top on BTCUSD. This leaves us with a very good r/r trade that is fairly likely to be confirmed and will be confirmed if it breaks the b-b trendline and retraces all of wave c faster than it was formed. As customary with unconfirmed counts it is better to wait for more confirmations on this larger count before getting too aggressive, but on the shorter 60m count there is definitely a confirmed terminal impulse wave 5 that you could certainly get pretty aggressive on if this initial down move isn't retraced too deeply, and from there it may continue on to confirm the larger count as well, which is very likely to happen because usually the whole impulse will be retraced when there is a terminal wave 5.
This sets us up with a really good risk/reward trade on the 60m chart which is confirmed and if this does end up violating the top and trigger the stops it will likely be profitable to stop and reverse so you can make back all your losses because it will likely continue on to form into a triple zigzag which could take us significantly higher.
Always remember to want what the market wants. Inner peace is the most valuable commodity you can attain. Be fearful and logical in your management, greedy in your analysis, and confident in your trading. Having fun is the key to successful trading and being able to reverse a bad trade. Fear will only cripple you during trading hours, fear can find risk/reward and manage but it is a terrible trader because it makes you do the wrong things at the wrong times, you can't be fearful and confident at the same time. Confidence knows what to do and when to do it, and its a great trader, but it's a reckless manager and analyst. Greed puts you in the best mindset for finding the underlying structure of the market as long as you are following your management strategy and don't get suckered into get rich quick schemes. A fully integrated approach of managerial fear, greedy analysis, and then confident trading is the ideal integration of all parts of the human psyche into your trading, and if you can work from a mindset of creativity instead of problem solving, and you can have fun while you trade, then you will be able to use the power of human intuition, inspiration and insight to improve your trading even further.
My BTC Elliott Wave Notes for MayThese notes come with no qualification of any kind. They're incomplete and messy.
The basic prediction is that
(1) we may/not have another short leg down towards 2800
(2) there's a big-ass up move coming
Suggest follow @Mr.Coins
Edit: Shit. I just qualified em.
Multi-Year Elliott Wave Forecast for the US Stock MarketThe channel break down indicates that the top is near. The pattern appears to be an incomplete Double Combination. Since the pattern is still somewhat incomplete it is a good idea to be careful making any trades on this pattern until it is confirmed. Confirmation should come sometime in 2017. It is very likely that if this pattern is correct we are in the midst of forming a non-limiting triangle which will resolve in 2017 and complete the Double Combination. This is the most likely scenario because Double Combination tend to almost always end with a non-limiting triangle which produce false-break downs from the parallel channel. The implications of the Double Combination completing are that we should retrace from 61.8%-80% of Wave (b), which means the S&P could go as low as 1000 by the time Wave (c) completes.
The overall pattern starting all the way back in the year 2000 is most likely either a triangle, a flat, or a Double Three where Wave (b) is actually Wave (x). The only thing that is clear is that we are in a :3:3 pattern so far, which still leaves a lot of variability in what could come next. In all of these cases it is fairly bullish when it completes because Wave (b) is running. I think that the most likely pattern is going to be a Triangle due to Wave (b) apparently being a double combination which generally do not retrace very far and would set us up nicely for a running triangle.
I am going to be keeping an eye on this chart and if this smaller non-limiting triangle holds up i'll be looking to open some large put options in late 2017 when we finally get a break down. Fundamentally there is major systemic risk throughout all of the stock and bond markets so I am for the most part going to avoid taking any long positions other than in the very short term. The upside from here seems very limited if we can manage to hold the high around 2100. Junk bond yields increasing is also usually an early warning sign that all bonds could be bubbling. With the risk of default on most types of loans from Corporate, to Mortgages, to Student, to Car and Personal loans increasing, the credit system is being pushed to its limits. Anyone with variable rates are soon going to see their interest rates rise because the FED plans to gradually increase interest rates after 7 years of all time lows. Seeing $USOIL at lows not seen for over a decade is not good for the health of the oil companies either, which our stock market depends on very heavily. It currently costs more to get oil out of the ground in many places than it is worth, which means that many of these oil companies are racking up massive amounts of debt in which they cannot repay and will soon default on their massive loans unless there is a major change in the direction of oil, and fast. Not to mention all the non-corporate loans that people are struggling to pay back with very high risk of default and which will only see increasing default rates during a period of economic slow-down and recession.
Many prominent investors and banks are also calling for a recession here so there is ample reason to be fearful. The stock market has had a very good run but now it's time for a major correction. This run was built on low interest rates and bad debt and now it is time for all of that to collapse.
Bitcoin Double Combination Breaking Down (Elliott Wave Analysis)
Continuing from the last chart that I published, It looks like we just completed Wave (b) as a double combination. The confirmations are the count (zigzag x triangle), the break down of the B-B baseline, the break down out of the A-A Channel, momentum divergences, and the time of Wave (b) being just slightly longer than 1.0 of Wave (a). Also the fact that this channeled so well is a good indication that the whole move is a complex correction and not an impulse.
The implications of this pattern are actually very bullish, that being said we shouldn't retrace more than 80% of Wave (b) on this bear run which will form a c-failure flat (or possibly a non-limiting triangle, depending on if wave (c) is impulsive or not). Since Waves (a) and (b) are so similar in time, it is very likely that Wave (c) will either be much shorter in time (probably 0.618 of Wave (a)) OR much longer (probably the length of (a)+(c) or 1.618 of (a)) and it definitely will not be the same length in time as either (a) or (b). I think that it being shorter is the more likely scenario because that actually puts this time target right on New Years Eve around 11pm EST which I think is perfect because there is suppose to be a lot of news for Bitcoin at the start of 2016. This downtrend will give us just enough room to trap out a lot of bears and get people to close their longs which will help compound the strength of the uptrend once everyone starts panic buying and closing their shorts.
Since this double combination ends with a non-limiting triangle we should not return to the apex of the triangle, if such a scenario occurs it would be smart to close shorts until a new count can be discovered and confirmed. For now, though, this looks like a great place to go short.
“Don’t let the fear of striking out get in your way.” -Babe Ruth
"Every artist was first an amateur" - Ralph Waldo Emerson
Good luck and Happy Trading!
Bitcoin Preparing for Major Pain. (Elliott Wave Analysis)It appears that we just completed an Irregular Failure Flat on the 12H chart. Since this is a running correction it implies very strong counter-trend power so I would expect that we go to at least 190 on this leg down, possibly even lower. This pattern should take 1-2 weeks to complete. It's a very nice, clean count. Perfect Impulsive move down followed by a running correction. Retracement Identification Analysis confirms that all of these waves fit the structure properly. Fibonacci Relationships are very nice as well and everything is proportional in time.
The only other possibility would be that this is actually some sort of x-wave but there are multiple reasons why I wouldn't count it that way. First of all, it passes the impulsive litmus test and the chances of there being an extended zigzag outside of a triangle pattern is almost none, the retracement ID doesn't confirm an x-wave, and finally, it is also pretty large to be an x-wave. With all of these things considered, and with the larger counts considered, it seems extremely likely that the above pattern fits into the whole, perfectly. That means that I can say with fairly high certainty that this is going to break down very hard, very soon. This chart only shows an intermediate target, I do believe it will go lower than this target after a correction. Refer to my monthly chart for longer-term targets.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” -Warren Buffett
Good luck and happy trading!
Scamcoins
Scamco.in
