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Negativedivergence

All good things come to an end...Needless to say SPY has been on an epic run for roughly a decade but as anyone of age knows all good things come to an end. The Fibonacci timing tool used in this chart uses two high points and a low in between them. The tool has been accurately predicting trend reversals but one week late 2 times in a row (look at how SPY reversed trend 1 week before the 1 extension and 1 week before the 1.27 extension. The 1.618 corresponds to the 23rd of Dec. implying on the 16th we may begin to see a reversal to the downside, lets see what happens. Thus far we are seeing negative RSI divergence (not included it the chart) and negative on balance volume divergence as well. We are also very close to 1.27 extensions of the two most dominant impulse waves of the index; 1 up and 1 down. I would not be surprised to see extensions that surpass the respective 1.27s and I can only be neutral at this time as my own analysis shows we are more than a month away from what could be the start of a correction at best or be on the cusp of a full blooded bear market at worst. All we can do is deal in probabilities. Please ask any questions and leave relevant comments. Thanks for reading.
AMEX:SPY
by TNasr
5
SPY... running on fumesDear all, this will be one of my shorter posts. In my last I noted that this market is difficult to read but now I can say with a higher degree of confidence we will be headed down in the near future. From the chart we see that in the past few days as well as roughly a month ago that the 0.786 Fibonacci (derived from the 1/26 - 2/8 crash) has served like a glass ceiling of resistance. Even if SPY is able to break this level I see 283.# as max upside based on my trend line, general research, and expert opinion I will not rehash for the purpose of brevity. One other note I want to make is a very interesting RSI consolidation visible by two yellow trend lines. With regards to RSI it is also notable that we have witnessed negative divergence recently; when we do break this wedge I think we will break to the downside. Your guess is as good as mine as to how far we will drop (potentially a retracement to 270 on the shallow end or 245-8 on the deep end) but I will definitely be looking to Fibonacci support levels visible and not visible from the chart above when that happens... Good luck, questions and criticisms are welcome
AMEX:SPYShort
by TNasr
2