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Neobutane

Are you brave?It appears we have once again peaked on the NVT Signal indicator. As you can see by the 100% strike rate, we are nearing a top. Bitcoin's price, as of publishing, is within 10% of a new ATH. NVT Ratio was created as an alternative to the traditional P/E Ratio that stocks have. NVT Signal is a derivation of NVT Ratio, and performs better than its predecessor. What NVT Signal processes is bitcoin's market capitalization divided by a 3 month moving average of daily transaction revenue. What you end up with is a strangely accurate top/bottom indicator that does not utilize price directly. Conceptually, under/overvaluation can be attributed to why it mirrors 'tops' and 'bottoms'. This means NVT Signal is less related to price momentum and more related to cultivating and culling profit, a cyclical process similar to harvesting seasons. Now it's time to cull. So, how brave are you? Information on NVT: charts.woobull.com Information on fees and Replace-by-fee: en.bitcoin.it en.bitcoin.it The indicator:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by NeoButane
27
Tech sector showing weakness despite gains on election dayWhen comparing tech focused ETFs/indexes, namely $NDAQ and $XLK, we can see that $SPY has recently been outperforming them. My theory is that this is an unusual case and a sign that tech stocks are near tops. Given that I did not receive the dip I wanted, I have difficulty putting on a short position on tech. There is also the factor that the highs have not been truly swept yet. Just something to keep an eye on. $NDAQ/$SPY $XLK/$SPY For options plays, it would appear leaps for $NDAQ would be ideal, while short term plays on $XLK would work out. $NDAQ is quite illiquid.
AMEX:XLK
by NeoButane
Where will we go, we always know - A XBT love storyBoxes, people, boxes! Look at my boxes and be embarrassed you did not realize to put horizontal rectangles in the same place that I did. It has become clear to me that my boxes are dictating price action. Feel afraid? Confused? Read on, you weary soul. I believe there's a chance that price will move down a bit into the developing VA (the blue lines you see on the main chart series). It'd be a good buy, even here under $10,600 is not bad. Target is upper box/weekly VWAP. Stop determined by risk. Risk more, put a stop on the top of the bottom box. Risk less, somewhere within the box. Even less risk, buy here + hedge, put bid orders all the way down to $10,400. It honestly looks like it's not going to dump at all...
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by NeoButane
1
Topical FRED and Yale Investor Confidence Data IndicatorsYou can copy this chart as your own to get the indicators. Required Reserves of Depository Institutions, in $ Billions FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Announcement: www.federalreserve.gov FAQ: www.frbservices.org Explanation: This action eliminates the need for thousands of depository institutions to maintain balances in accounts at Reserve Banks to satisfy reserve requirements, thereby freeing up liquidity in the banking system to support lending to households and businesses. Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org pages.uoregon.edu Monthly smoothed recession probabilities are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. Historically, three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities above 80% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new recession, while three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities below 20% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new expansion. Unemployment Rate FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. U.S. Confidence Indices Yale: som.yale.edu Buy on Dips: The percent of the population expecting a rebound the next day should the market ever drop 3% in one day. Crash (this is somewhat confusing): The percent of the population who attach little probability to a stock market crash in the next six months. The Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability is strictly less than 10% . Valuation: The percent of the population who think that the market is not too high. Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: Wednesday Level FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org The total face value of U.S. Treasury securities held by the Federal Reserve. Purchases or sales of U.S. Treasury securities by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) are made in the secondary market, or with various foreign official and international organizations that maintain accounts at the Federal Reserve. FRBNY's purchases or sales in the secondary market are conducted only through primary dealers. Assets: Other: Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Repurchase agreements reflect some of the Federal Reserve's temporary open market operations. Repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are purchased from a primary dealer under an agreement to sell them back to the dealer on a specified date in the future. The difference between the purchase price and the repurchase price reflects an interest payment. The Federal Reserve may enter into repurchase agreements for up to 65 business days, but the typical maturity is between one and 14 days. Federal Reserve repurchase agreements supply reserve balances to the banking system for the length of the agreement. The Federal Reserve employs a naming convention for these transactions based on the perspective of the primary dealers: the dealers receive cash while the Federal Reserve receives the collateral.
DJ:DJI
by NeoButane
4
Weekly Rounded Top vs. +30% From the Low: look to long lower?Bullish: Every week since the low has closed green except this week. Bearish: The last week of each month have been particularly bearish since January. The overwhelming bull trend that's taken place over the past few weeks have been disorienting. My bias is now leaning neutral. I will consider the downtrend on hold if the monthly closes above the 17th of April high. Will switch bullish wiith a swiftness once issues with global oil pricing and the pandemic are resolved. Keeping an eye on the China/U.S. trade squabble. Black lines at the top/bottom are based on support/resistance levels and volume gaps. I should note that I am preferring the futures contract to chart for its longer session vs. the regular SPY chart or index. Recent oil news: Lack of available storage, due to it being so darn cheap to stock up on now, led to the dump of the front month futures contract. Oil also expires which explains why months further out are not as affected. www.bloomberg.com www.aljazeera.com www.wsj.com Recent coronavirus/COVID-19 news (only what could possibly be related to the markets' pricing): Possible vaccine, mRNA-1273, currently in human trials and stocks such as MRNA and GILD megapumped. Vaccines require time for trials/mass production, so it would be interesting to see how price would react the next time when a solid date on vaccine delivery is announced for...every country? I don't believe there's a globally accepted guideline on vaccine distribution. www.nasdaq.com time.com www.who.int Recent China/U.S. e-fight news: TBD There's a lot of articles out there without any proper coverage. Repeating old news in new publishments and talks related to the virus. The latter is important but oftentimes involves too much speculation and journalist bias.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by NeoButane
Throw the Spider back into the green in time for NY OpenPut/call ratio at peak levels. The other time it was higher was in 2010 where permabears got blown out. Weak bullish divergence on VZO. Should deadcat at the very least, as it has been. This is a long on every market in the world, except oil and volatility. Volality recovery TBD, I don't think the oil industry ever will. DJI, a metric that that is not weighted by market cap so wild swings don't make any sense at all, has not hit the 20% bear market indicator yet if measured with the peak being the open of a highest green candle and the trough being the lowest red close. And using monthly candles. Curve-fitting to bias required. Lol
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by NeoButane
1
Everest to Reach Mt. Everest LevelsThis is my third time writing this because I fat fingered some buttons and there are no drafts for publishing ideas. I had a lot written. Sorry for the poor quality writing now. - EVX: coin for Thailand - Thailand added two new laws: news.bitcoin.com - First one is mandatory AML/KYC >The first is the Act on Digital Asset Businesses. It requires the registration and know-your-customer (KYC) compliance of cryptocurrency operators including agents, dealers, and brokers, the news outlet detailed. It also imposes penalties and remedies for violations. Good: Some tokens needs this. Bitcoin does not because bitcoin's use case is to be an immutable decentralized alternative currency, Travis Klng has an apt description on how to define bitcoin. Bad: KYC/AML - The second one is basically the same but adds taxes. Additional note: central banks reserver the right to close and confiscate trading accounts at their will. It looks like a cool idea.
ELong
by NeoButane
Mo Momo, yoInterested in buying under $33 and taking partial profit at $57, or long term options. Amid China's current nCov 2019 epidemic, it seems that the internet/social media based companies are handling things well. There is a lot of open interest for puts 30-35 on options a few months out. Considering their top holder with 14 million shares is Black Rock and MOMO is backed by Alibaba, I am near certain the puts are merely hedges for their positions should MOMO not be able to reclaim price above $40. Here is a copy paste from Yahoo Finance: "Momo Inc. operates a mobile-based social and entertainment platform in the People's Republic of China. The company operates Momo platform that includes its Momo mobile application and various related features, functionalities, tools, and services to users, customers, and platform partners. It offers Momo mobile application that enables users to establish and expand their social relationships based on locations; interests; and recreational activities, including live talent shows, short videos, social games, and other video- and audio-based interactive experiences. The company also operates Tantan, a social and dating app to help its users to find and establish romantic connections, as well as to meet interesting people primarily for young mobile Internet users. The company was formerly known as Momo Technology Company Limited and changed its name to Momo Inc. in July 2014. Momo Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China." Social media is the future. And this has to be one of my most favorite bullish trading patterns:
NASDAQ:MOMOLong
by NeoButane
Safer to long under $9910 and short over $10050For my own limits, 9900-10000 is a no trade zone because I have no directional bias to rely on in this area. I view under or right at the bottom of $9900 as a reliable support level and $10050 as resistance. Alternatively, 9947~ can be a area to scale in long as it is the 0.618 retrace point of the dump (10085-9730). $10000 is a psychological resistance and an area of liquidity that can be retested if the $9900 range is cleared. The blue boxes designate where I will scale in/out of position. It would be ideal to short anywhere above $9900 if you're bearish because of $10000 being a psychological level lost. If bitcoin doesn't recover, price will start to chop under for at least a few days (or years, who knows). I am currently bullish on the price of bitcoin for the end of this daily to close above $10000 but am expecting unexpected volatility. The fib retracement on the chart is from the 1 minute chart.
DERIBIT:BTCUSD.P
by NeoButane
3
Bitcoin back up over 7200 for now Undetermined resistance. Possibly 7350 or 7402. Beyond that, I am hoping for a move towards higher 7k levels. Deribit options were nice because I was able to get out in profit on both my terrible calls and puts while I was asleep. I closed my short and flipped long on futures at 7200, hedging with a 6500 put Dec. 27 expiry. Quick change to idea while writing this: if it fails to break past 7250 repeatedly it can bounce between 7100-7250 or dip into 7000 Moving forward I am considering: - Place low priced orders for more puts as price rises (not on the weeklies) - Hedge short at each possible resistance level and put tight stops on them - Reduce long (but bitcoin only up so I probably won't do this) - Hedging at 7250 because it's a round number I use COINBASE:BTCUSD as the ticker to view because volume on Deribit is currently too low to create 'proper' price action and volume analysis. Note: if you trade on BitMex, never buy their Ups/Downs. Flood on Twitter has done a whole analysis on why it's a terrible idea. Credits to Crypto Cred/Mayne et. al for SR level + range trading ideals. If you want to learn more/different methods I would suggest looking at their content as well as Trader Dante, tradersz. Murad Mahmudov, TheCryptoDog, and AltcoinPsycho have good content on trading mentality/sentiment analysis. And the others I have forgot (sorry lol).Check my following list or something twitter.com Note: It'd be ideal to get Deribit's funding ticker or index ticker on TradingView, too. Ideally ideal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by NeoButane
2
GRIN will make you GRINHate reading sentences? You should work on that. Here's bullet points on why I believe holding GRIN under $10 is a good long term strategy. Is like bitcoin, but with privacy. Similarities to bitcoin: no pre-mine, anonymous founder, PoW, not an ICO github.com Strategy: Buy dips under $10 Have sells at $10-13 to 'lower' your buyin Buy more dips when it eventually tanks below $10 because someone is accumulating Alternatively, buy on (if it happens) the newly appointed titanium support of yearly ATH Be patient
GLong
by NeoButane
3100 - I hate to I love you, bitcoinRed lines - horizontal channel that price fell out of. I can see this 'double bottom' popping up a bit to 3400 with a bearish denial because of the bottom of the channel acting as resistance and high volume shown on VPVR. Above that would be the middle of the channel acting as resistance, as well as February open, and Money Box's support flipping resistance. Blue box is where I am expecting chop before further dump into the 3100 region. That's a possible pump zone because everyone will be panic selling to into shorts covering. However, I think it's also possible that price will just sit there as more and more volume/traders leave the market. Then would begin the slow death grind into the $2,000 unknown. Invalidated with a daily close above 3500
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by NeoButane