Cloudflare teaching moment. Meteoric rise = catastrophic dump.Hi everyone,
Today I would like to share a piece of knowledge on parabolic growth and poor market structures.
Let us take a look at NYSE:NET Cloudflare stock.
This was an attractive buy back in 2020. As always, nobody saw that until everyone started screaming about this stock on Twitter.
I saw an opportunity in investing into Cloudflare later in 2021 for a long-term.
I did not know what's coming.
At the beginning of October, after a decent sell-off something strange began happening.
Stock rose TWELVE days in a row. And not just stayed barely positive, it gained insane 68% in price during this short period.
Right there I knew this was not sustainable and price won't last up there for long.
Yes, I sold at 175 .
Yes, I missed a run up to 220 .
But, really, did I?
Noone can predict the top. But you can predict the inevitable downfall.
The Lesson.
Look at the chart.
You see the price in the first box going parabolicly up. The price took off to the moon and was hovering up in the air. Thus, poor structure has been created.
There is no single support level from 137 to 182 .
The Market hates poor weak structures and it tends to repair them sooner or later.
That is exactly what happened with Cloudflare stock.
Price has been flushed from 204 down to 123 as fast as it flew up there back in October. You can see that in the second box.
The structure has been repaired. A lot of data points were created in the process, which will help with the analysis in the future.
This might be a rebirth of Cloudflare stock constituting healthy future movement.
Trade wisely and good luck!
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise
Net
Buy CorrectionShort term (rest of the year) Cloudflare will be in a correction (profit booking) like the rest of the market, which has been driven up crazy since the march dip 2020.
Cloudflare will find support at 0.786 Fibonacci around 130-140$ which will be a good entry point for the start of next year 2021.
Weekly Watchlist 10/4 - 10/8Here is what stocks we are looking at this week!
NASDAQ:AAPL
Seeing a nice bounce off of 100sma and the .50 fib level.
Looking to take a move over $143 with targets of $144, $145, and $146
NYSE:NET
Nice consolidation and retest of old $112 support.
Looking to take a move over $116 with targets of $118 and $120
Earnings Week (08/02-08/06): Move Predictions, IV CrushBelow I've posted a compiled spreadsheet (Google Drive spreadsheet), outlining a large portion of upcoming earning releases for the week of August 2 through August 6, 2021. Options market overestimation percentages, predicted/actual earnings release moves, and average implied volatility (IV) numbers have all been sourced from Market Chameleon ( marketchameleon.com ).
Google Drive spreadsheet public link: docs.google.com
If and where I've posted quarterly analyst revision numbers, that data has been sourced from Seeking Alpha ( seekingalpha.com ). PLEASE take any analyst "recommendations" with a literal kilogram of salt, as any/all critical thinkers have noted a tendency toward foul play with "analyst" target numbers and recommendations (hint, they do not have YOUR best interests in mind).
Current prices are obviously as of market close, Friday, 07/30/2021. The most important data provided lie in the first five columns immediately proceeding "Current Price."
This spreadsheet provides a readily accessible, macro view of potential earnings plays for the week. I often use this overview to aid with decisions to either buy or write put/call spreads, credit/debit iron condors, or more standard long plays with protective puts, dependent upon overall market volatility (VIX), and equity-specific IV.
Please post any comments/questions/concerns, and best of luck this busy week traders.
NASDAQ:NXPI
RIG
SPG
NYSE:BABA
NYSE:BP
COP
UA
LLY
CLX
ATVI
OXY
AYX
CPE
CVS
SMG
CLVS
MPC
ROKU
UBER
ETSY
FSLY
MPC
WDC
WYNN
QRVO
MRNA
FVRR
W
REGN
SQ
NET
ZG
NVAX
DKNG
CGC
GT
NASDAQ:CRON
$CRWD flag - long to 300 extended target, 250 initial$CRWD showing a beautiful symmetrical triangle setup. If you missed my $BNTX callout this is next to run hard and fast.
$PANW in their last ER admitted they are losing business to $CRWD which is growing at record pace.
Positions: 240/250c 6/18; 250/260c 7/16
NET CLOUDFLARE POSSIBLY BREAKING OUTCloudflare Inc Cl A (NET)- DEVELOPS SOFTWARE FOR FIREWALL, ROUTING, TRAFFIC OPTIMIZATION, LOAD BALANCING, AND OTHER NETWORK SERVICES.
Trying this name again. It was good to me last year. Closed position 12/28/2020. I've been waiting patiently for this to continue its trajectory.
Possible breakout on high volume 2.6 million. Volume change 109%
06-08-2021
Entry 88.88
STOP 79.20
1 R 9.49
1 R PRICE 98.18
2R PRICE 107.67
3R PRICE 117.16
Earning increase 25% over quarter previous year
Educational purposes. Not meant as trading advice.
Will NET Bring Cloud Back To Life?NET NYSE:NET is a riskier play at this moment due to the overall weakness in tech stock and market conditions. But, in comparison to other companies in this sector NET is holding up fairly well and showing some relative strength. NET tried to get over $76 today and failed to hold above. Testing a strong support zone for the third time over the past two months and looks like we may be starting to bounce. Volume has been accumulating with 4 out of the last 6 days trading above NET's daily volume average. POC on the daily chart is right at $82.51 lvl. If SPY/QQQ can start to breakout this week $$ should flow back into the tech stocks and the cloud sector which has taken a solid beating can see some bullish movement. Ideally, we gap up to $78 and form an island reversal. But, a play over $76 with the right market conditions looks primed for a good swing.
EMA's serving as a resistance above in the 78-79 range, tough lvls to get through in the Low Volume Node (LVN)
4/16 $80 calls will be my swing of choice (4.35/4.65). IV is very low 21% IV percentile on NET and if the market starts to move back up these can pay out well!
*I entered a small NET position this week and will add more on break of $76 with volume.
NET - Ready to Test the HighsNET - Ready to Test the Highs
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
Is $CRWD ready for an $ABC correction to $195Is $CRWD ready for an $ABC correction to $195
CRWD is definitely a leader in its space but this run looks a bit extended and exhausted along with a potential corrective wave to $195.
Use options to define risk as premium paid.
Suggested options to use: Feb 5 Weeklies $200 put trading at $4 a contract.
$OSTK bulls need to be patient - buy level is at $39-$41$OSTK bulls need to be patient - buy level is at $39-$41
$ORN IT MAY SURPRISE US WITH A HUGE MOVE UP BEFORE MAIN NET!$ORN: #1 AltCoin on @LunarCRUSH
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