Netflix. Will The Bulls Defend The 0.382? Best Load Up Zones.Current Market 79 Billion
Up an impressive 200,000% over the last 20 years, Netflix reached an all time high of $700.99 back in November 2021.
It has since corrected a whopping 77% and hovers around the $165-$180 range.
The biggest correction Netflix had to endure was back in 2011-2012, it reached an all time high of around $43 before a staggering 82.5% drop.
If we pull a fib from its 2002 low, to its ETH in 2011, we can see that price found support at the 0.382 level. (Fib pulled from body close to body close)
I've then pulled a fib from the 0.382 to its November 2021 ETH. A similar 82.5% correction would place it once again in the 0.382 range.
We also have a lifelong trendline approaching that could also be tested as support.
If the 0.382 doesn't hold, long term bulls should look for buys at the next fib levels.
RSI is at record lows , Stochastic oversold. We could have a little rally before testing the 0.382/trendline as we did back in 2012.
We could even just rally from here, only time will tell! If your bullish long term, DCAing is best.
Here's an extract from from the Q1 shareholders growth outlook report sent out in April.
In the near term though, we’re not growing revenue as fast as we’d like. COVID clouded the picture by
significantly increasing our growth in 2020, leading us to believe that most of our slowing growth in 2021
was due to the COVID pull forward. Now, we believe there are four main inter-related factors at work.
First, it’s increasingly clear that the pace of growth into our underlying addressable market (broadband homes)
is partly dependent on factors we don’t directly control, like the uptake of connected TVs
(since the majority of our viewing is on TVs), the adoption of on-demand entertainment, and data costs.
We believe these factors will keep improving over time, so that all broadband households will be potential Netflix customers.
Second, in addition to our 222m paying households, we estimate that Netflix is being shared with over 100m additional households,
including over 30m in the UCAN region. Account sharing as a percentage of our paying membership hasn’t changed much over the years,
but, coupled with the first factor, means it’s harder to grow membership in many markets - an issue that was obscured by our COVID growth.
Third, competition for viewing with linear TV as well as YouTube, Amazon, and Hulu has been robust for the last 15 years.
However, over the last three years, as traditional entertainment companies realized streaming is the future, many new streaming services have also launched.
While our US television viewing share, for example, has been steady to up according to Nielsen, we want to grow that share faster.
Higher view share is an indicator of higher satisfaction, which supports higher retention and revenue.
Fourth, macro factors, including sluggish economic growth, increasing inflation , geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
and some continued disruption from COVID are likely having an impact as well.
Hope this helps, yours truly-
Thomas Shelby, Shelby Company Limited.
Speculative Setup, DYOR. Allow 3-24 months for this idea.
Netflix
NetflixNetflix
Goldman Sachs lowered the capitalization of Netflix to the basket.
Since the end of 2021, the company began to rapidly lose its capitalization and from the level of $700 per share, fell at the peak of the downward UP trend to the level of $200, which caused panic investment fear. The next trigger for the fall was the updated status of the rating from Goldman Sachs to the "sell" status, after which the quotes on the NASDAQ immediately collapsed by almost 5% and continue to fall. At the moment, Netflix shares have approached the historical support level of the $165 descending channel, and in case of its breakdown, the next technical target is $100 per share. The $100 support level could well become an option level, below which a large amount of pent-up demand is concentrated. This fact is able to generate short-term investment interest for the formation of medium-term upward dynamics. Additional factors may be the release of the already announced second season of "The Squid Game" from Netflix.
BTC USD NETFLIX EXPANDED FLAT FRACTAL, BTC TARGET $200K+BTC BITCOIN USD I have been looking for fractals throughout the various markets and I have found another one that is really good. This is Netflix where I found the fractal showing the same expanded flat correction as Bitcoin just on a different time scale. The MACD is also very similar as well. I believe the BTC was just in a breather phase over this past year and is now ready to complete the other 50% of its bull run. Sometimes climbing a mountain you need a break if its too steep at the halfway point. If its a nice slow steady incline then a break usually isnt needed. This is not financial advice this is just my opinion. Follow me for more updates and analysis and leave me a like and comment if you find this content useful. Thank you and good luck.
BTC BITCOIN USD : NETFLIX FRACTAL EXPANDED FLAT $200K+ COMINGBTC BITCOIN USD I have been looking for fractals throughout the various markets and I have found another one that is really good. This is Netflix where I found the fractal showing the same expanded flat correction as Bitcoin just on a different time scale. The MACD is also very similar as well. I believe the BTC was just in a breather phase over this past year and is now ready to complete the other 50% of its bull run. Sometimes climbing a mountain you need a break if its too steep at the halfway point. If its a nice slow steady incline then a break usually isnt needed. This is not financial advice this is just my opinion. Follow me for more updates and analysis and leave me a like and comment if you find this content useful. Thank you and good luck.
NETFLİX BULLİSH CAN COME!!!Hello guys,
I wanna share my idea about netflix.I think rise will come after this EMA cutting. Why bullish will come? Let's answer this question.
Reasons of rise possibility:
1)We are on the very strong support.This will affect investor for buy netflix.
2) 5 length EMA can cut 20 length EMA at the future days.
3)We see mismatch between MACD and Chart.(Most important signal in my opinion)
This reasons can affect investors for Buy netflix share.
I show STOP LOSS area with ATR strategy on the chart.
Actually I think, This seems good oppurtunity for Buy netflix share.
NOT İNVESTEMENT ADVİCE THATS ONLY MY OPİNİONS.
Thanks
NFLX:If it looks like a bottom. . . ?!!Netflix
Short Term - We look to Buy a break of 210.00 (stop at 158.96)
The bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart is positive for sentiment. A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. Further upside is expected to close the gap between 248.70 and 333.22.
Our profit targets will be 329.00 and 400.00
Resistance: 240.00 / 330.00 / 400.00
Support: 160.00 / 125.00 / 81.00
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Buy stop!I definitely like that bullish momentum with volume and although it did not dip to my level rather it bounced on the 30m ssb. I will put a buy stop at 198 so that I am only taken in if right and stop 184. The ultimate target is 250 zone but will add and remove as appropriate. The R is 3.58 if I take it all the way up;)
NefliX:Day trade?. . . .which could turn swingTurned mildly bullish on Netflix on 31 May with a tk cross. However the volume was not convincing so today will be doing just a day trade to test my bullish thesis. If successful then my day trade can potentially turn into a swing. On the monthly we had a bullish hammer caused by the monthly lagging failure to cross down the monthly SSB. If this persists then we might have a pullback to the 233-240 zone. The streak of strong bearish months from November means whatever long position should be taken with extreme caution as the overall trend remains bearish and we are attempting to catch knives so to speak.
For the day trade I am targeting the daily kijun zone for a bounce and will be bullish from there with a tight stop. I need to see a good conviction bullish 30min candle bouncing from that red zone or somewhere close to that. The stop will be just below that zone.
Bullish Pattern Indicate A Major Reversal For Netflix Shares.Netflix formed the possible head-and-shoulders pattern between April 26 and May 26, with the left shoulder created over the first seven trading days within the time period, the head over the subsequent eight days and the right shoulder was printed over the eight days that followed. On Tuesday, Netflix retraced slightly lower to back test the neckline of the pattern and held above it.
Netflix’s relative strength index (RSI) has been making a series of higher highs and higher lows, which indicates momentum into the stock is increasing. Netflix’s RSI is currently measuring in at about 43%, which indicates the stock has room to move in either direction before entering into oversold or overbought territory but the indicator is suggesting more upside.
Netflix is trading in a confirmed uptrend, with the most recent higher high printed on Tuesday at the high-of-day and the most recent higher low formed at the $177.17 mark on May 24. Eventually, Netflix will retrace to print another higher low, which could provide an entry point for bullish traders who aren’t already in a position.
Netflix has two gaps above, with the closest gap falling between $248.70 and $333.22. Gaps on charts fill about 90% of the time, which indicates Netflix will rise up to fill the empty trading range in the future, although it could be some time before that happens.
Netflix has resistance above at $200.82 and $212.98 and support below at $186.40 and $178.38.
NFLXNetflix shares have fallen sharply recently due to bad news about the company's users falling
But that reduction is too much, and I expect it to have at least one retreat towards the $ 333 and $ 478 targets.
MACD and RSI indicators are in the floor area and sellers do not seem to be able to reduce the price and the price in the area is between $ 180 and $ 200.
Netflix same drops three times beforeLooking back in history we have seen three similar drops like this one before. And prices have bounced very nicely up from that area.
This is the time the rich get richer, meanwhile the poor get poorer as they close their losses instead of adding more.
I am pretty sure we will go down more but it's still a good opportunity not happening very often.
NFLX-USD Greetings,
Since ATH, the paper has fallen in price by 75% due to loss of Russian subscribers and a general market correction. There were only two such strong corrections in 2004 by 77% and 2011-12 by 80%. Could the decline continue? I think so, with a rebound and a test of support around $90-130, where the 2015-17 accumulation zone is located.
The company predicts this quarter's drop in subscribers could drop another 2 million, from the current 220 million, due to the unstable world situation and higher US subscription costs.
The company's average monthly returns statistically are January, May, August, October, December. And the weakest months are April and July, the current drop in April confirms this statistic, May has every chance to close better on the rebound.
But fundamentally the company is developing, and the number of users of the service will grow worldwide. For private investors it is worth thinking about several entry points, which would reduce the risk and get a better average price for further correction.
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Always use STOP, and do not use a leverage higher than x3.
A trader must always have tomorrow.
Are Nasdaq stocks now reasonably priced?Over the past two years, technology companies have enjoyed explosive growth as investors were upbeat about the prospects for the sector at a time when people relied on technology to stay connected while cooped up in their homes.
Internet firms like Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) were among those to reap substantial gains from the tech boom during the pandemic. Zoom’s stock surged to a record $559 in October 2020 around the time that its platform’s usage became ubiquitous for people working at home and regular users that wanted to connect with friends and families.
The confidence in Zoom and other internet stocks like Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) fueled a herd mentality that propelled the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index to an all-time high in November 2020.
But with concerns about high valuations and interest rate hikes that could lower companies’ future earnings, the Nasdaq has been on a freefall for about half a year now, retreating from its November peak of over 16,000 points to an over 18-month low of just under 12,000 points on Wednesday.
Pandemic favorites lose shine
Zoom, the poster child for 2020, is now trading at less than $90 from its October peak of $559. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), another pandemic favorite, has lost 62% over the past year and 69% year-to-date as of Wednesday, trading at less than $190 after touching an all-time high of $690.31 in October 2021.
The drop in Netflix’s shares comes as the company reported its first quarterly loss of subscribers in over a decade. It lost 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter, which the company blamed on people sharing accounts, among other factors.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman in April sold his entire stake in Netflix, taking $400 million in losses. His firm, Pershing Square Holdings, said that while Netflix’s business is fundamentally simple to understand, "we have lost confidence in our ability to predict the company’s future prospects with a sufficient degree of certainty."
Valuation worries
The appeal of tech stocks has dimmed in recent months mainly due to high valuation coupled with missed or slowing sales targets. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), in October 2021, missed the market’s revenue expectations due to the lingering global chip shortage that has been affecting its iPhone production.
Apple’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a measure of whether it is over- or under-valued, surged to 35.45 at the end of 2020 before retreating to 28 in the first quarter of 2022. This means that investors are paying $28 for every $1 of the company’s earnings.
The iPhone maker’s current PE ratio, however, is still lower than that of its peers, including Netflix, Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), whose P/E ratio’s are all above 50.
Most overvalued tech stock
Tesla’s stock price has jumped 26% over the past year, but down 40% year-to-date. Over a month ago, the carmaker joined a growing list of megacap companies to enact a stock split after its shares blew past $1,000 in October 2021. Stock splits make shares more attractive to retail investors but doesn’t change its PE ratio.
Many analysts say Tesla is the most overvalued tech and automotive stock in the market and even its own CEO Elon Musk shared the same view at one point, tweeting two years ago that the company’s stock price “is too high imo.” That tweet knocked 10.3% off Tesla’s stock price on May 1, 2020.
However, some still see the company's current market value as reflective of Tesla’s potential to further expand its dominant position in the electric-vehicle market. In 2021, Tesla held a nearly 14% share of the global EV market, beating rivals Volkswagen, BYD (HKG:1211), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and BMW, among others.
A counter to the recent pessimism
While many financial watchers cast doubt on tech firms’ ability to meet sales targets and justify their high valuations, some say the recent tech sell-off is irrational while remaining upbeat about tech’s future performance especially in the area of new tech trends like big data and artificial intelligence.
Netflix 171% move coming but first...some thoughts. Netflix pulled a squid games, (look up squid games crypto if you're lost) but honestly Netflix shit the bed. But now the beds being cleaned and you can start accumulating in this area $190 - $217 to sell in the mid $500's.
Reasoning: Gap fill at $198 and lots stop losses hit me thinks <$200 and then run up to the top of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily which coincides with ~540.
I'm setting a tight stop just in case of future Ackman scares.
Netflix, Inc. - Long tradeEver since it hit a high of 701.0 back in November 2021, Netflix has fallen dramatically to trade at 162.71, its lowest level since August 2017. Looking at the daily chart, a clear 5-wave decline can be seen, pointing to an imminent correction. While we do not rule out small losses still, we recommend to go long at market with a stop at 124.0, targeting 280.0, the 50% retracement of the 5th wave.