( NFLX ) NETFLIX analysisTechnical analysis: the price has reached a historical resistance , with a bearish divergence signal on the RSI indicator , this could lead to a re-test of the yellow zone located between 580$ - 560$
Fundamental analysis : NETFLIX'S PE ratio is relatively high compared to tech industry with respectively 65 for netflix and 25 for average tech industry's PE ratio
analysts says that new subscribers gains in netflix are already priced into the stock price (source : Deutsch bank)
Netflix
Netflix Post Q3 Earnings Analysis$NFLX - Netflix neared a record all-time high after market close - as the largest streaming service brought in more subscribers than analysts projected in Q3. Profit also beat forecasts, while Revenue was in line with estimates.
EPS of $3.19
Sales +16.3% to $7.48 billion - anticipates another +16% gain in revenue Q4
Profit of $1.4B
Revenue of $7.5B
Netflix added +4.4M subscribers globally to total 213M - expects to increase its subscriber base by +8.5M in Q4
$DIS: America's Sweetheart is WobblyLabor shortages, increased streaming competition, sub par content as of late. Will value investors step in and save it at 170 or is this a major crossroads in the future of this giant. The bullish case here mostly lies in whether or not inflation will persist. If we see the dollar continue to improve, value names may be on the table which will involve this getting snapped up. However, if inflation is persistent it may be a huge struggle to retain labor and could put a dent in streaming profits
$NFLXShares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) were up 4.8% as of 1:14 p.m EDT on Tuesday. The streaming media veteran saw a bullish earnings preview from analyst firm Cowen & Co., which included rosy results from Cowen's proprietary media viewership survey
In a third-quarter survey of 2,500 U.S. consumers, Cowen asked which media platform has the best video content right now.
Netflix led the pack with 28% of the vote, far ahead of YouTube's second-place tally of 15% and basic cable's third-place showing at 10%.
The "other" category, which includes social networks and various smaller video publishing platforms, added up to 13% of the vote.
Netflix was also found to be the leading service that consumers use most often for viewing videos, ahead of "other" platforms and basic cable.
This figure rose to 33% when zooming in on the important age group of 18- to 34-year-olds.
The stock reached another all-time high today, having posted a market-beating gain of 11% in the last three months.
Whether Netflix meets or misses Wall Street's expectations on Oct. 19, the stock is primed to make a big move on the news. Either way, Netflix remains one of my favorite stocks in the digital media space.
On the technical side of things Netflix is looking extremely bullish on the higher frames.
Breaking above previous resistance with a continuation up, I can’t see why this wouldn’t stop here.
It’s a little on the overbought side of things on the daily chart so could see slight pullbacks but overall should continue it’s way up.
MACD bullish.
RSI overbought.
Next point. $700
Watchlist this.
The Squid Game Shows Why Most People Don’t Make Money TradingSquid game is the hottest series on Netflix ($NFLX) right now, in which 456 players join a game of death, where they have a chance to win 456 Billion Korean Won (KRW), or 38.5 Milllion US Dollars.
What’s interesting about this series is that it depicts human sentiment in a very realistic way. We could see how market participants think and act by looking at the participants of the squid game.
A random guy appears at the subway station, and offers to play card flip, where he’d slap the player if he wins, and pay $100 if he loses. He actually ends up paying the players, stimulating their curiosity. Later, players are taken to a remote island where they have no clue what game they’re playing, with hopes of potentially winning life-changing money.
Beginners Luck turns to Attribution Bias
People who join the stock market are not different. They don’t know what game they’re playing, and what rules there are. Just as the subway guy invokes curiosity from the players by paying them small amounts of actual money, people are dragged into the stock market through stories of their friends and acquaintances making life-changing money by trading.
You try to remember the name of the stock or cryptocurrency your friend mentioned, and buy it without doing any due dilligence. You participate in the game of the market with 0 understanding of the game and rules.
When the stock/crypto you bought goes up (by chance), you fall into the trap of beginner’s luck. Beginner’s luck refers to a phenomenon or situation in which a beginner experiences a disproportionate ferquency of success against even experts in a certain field or activity. It’s often used in gambling and sports. But beginner’s luck leads to overconfidence and attribution bias.
Overconfidence refers to one’s excessive trust in his decisions based on gut-feeling and his cognitive abilities. This often leads to overtrading, and the market participant ends up paying excessive trading fees. Overconfident traders also tend to neglect statistics, and put all their eggs in one basket. They hardly listen to other people, and tend to choose the stocks/crypto they invest in themselves.
Attribution bias, or cognitive bias, is when people find reasons for their own and others’ behaviors. So when they’re in profit, they think that it’s all thanks to their amazing prediction. When they’re at a loss, it’s because the market was in an unfavorable situation, or simply because they were unlucky. Essentially, they constantly come up with excuses for every situation.
We all know Isaac Newton as a genius physicist, but he was a failure as an investor. He made the wrong investment decision when he invested in South Sea stocks, which led him to lose 20,000 pounds (about $4M today). He lost most of his life savings and famously said that “you can calculate the motions of heavenly stars, but not the madness of people” - a classic example of someone with attribution bias.
Mob Psychology and the Bandwagon Effect
This is accurately reflected in Squid Game. When players play ‘Red Light Green Light’, they are shocked to see other players get massacred. After the game is over, they later vote whether they want to continue playing the game or not. The surviving players fall into the trap of overconfidence and attribution bias.
Only 1 person out or 456 will survive and win the prize money. Statistically, every player has a 0.22% chance of survival. While this is statistically low, they’re taken away by the pile of cash hanging from the ceiling, and start believing that they’re special, and that they can win. Lotteries and gambling work in the same way, in which people bet on a probable case that is close to impossible. Sadly, most people approach trading like gambling.
In Squid Game, right before they play tug of war, a riot breaks out, and players are split into different factions. So when they’re told to team up for tug of war, teams are formed based on the factions that were formed the day before. This shows us mob psychology and the bandwagon effect.
Mob psychology, or mob mentaility, is when people follow the actions and behaviors of their peers when in large groups. The bandwagon effect falls within the scope of mob mentaility, and is a phenomenon in which people do something primarily because others are doing it , regardless of their own beliefs.
The same psychological phenomena can be applied to investors and traders in the market. Instead of trading based on their own trading rules, strategies, and analyses, they simply follow the actions of other market participants. These are the people who end up panic buying or selling, and falling victim to pump and dump schemes.
Conclusion
These psychological phenomena prevents us from making the right decisions in the market, and making the wrong decisions indicates that we lose money. Just like how most people in the Squid Game end up dying, there are many other people who entered the market with dreams of becoming a millionaire, only to lose everything. But unlike the Squid Game, the financial markets isn’t a winner-takes-all. If you can understand the characteristics and rules of each market, and do your due diligence on different ways to beat the market, you can have a statistical edge. As a trader, I would say that technical knowledge accounts to less than 5% of what it takes to be successful. It’s more about understanding your cognitive bias and controlling your emotions and psychological state.
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Netflix Investment Outlook Assets move in 5 and 3's (Elliot wave simplified). From the macro view, it appears that we are in our 4th wave, and we have 1 more wave up to go. The leg of our bull pennant at minimum gives us a target of $681, which is confluent with the 1.146 fib.
If the stock market melts up and Netflix impulses, the Price target will be significantly higher!
Based on our Indicators, If the case is indeed bullish, we will bounce off the wolfpack baseline, and start another green streak. This leaves room for the RSI to go overbought one last time!
Overall, the chart is bullish, and a position should be taken once the breakout is confirmed. If a stock market crash was to occur, utilize the EMA's and support lines for positioning. The TA is overall optimistically favoring the long side!
NFLX ShortEntry price: 610-615$
Target price: 575-580$
Stop loss: 620-625$
Bollinger Bands: The price is approaching the upper band.
RSI: Indicator is approaching 70 level, therefore the market is near to be overbought.
Fibonacci Retracement: The price is approaching the resistance level (Fib 1.618 level).
Conclusions: Bollinger Bands and RSI suggest the trend reversal in the near future. Moreover, the price is approaching Fib resistance level, thus the short position is recommended with the stop loss above Fib 1.618 level.
No financial advice.
10/3/21 NFLXNetflix, Inc (NFLX)
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Current Price: $613.15
Breakout price trigger: $610.00(hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $596.00-$570.00
Price Target: $646.00-$650.00 (1st), $765.00-$780.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 49-56d (1st), 210-224d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $NFLX 11/19/21 650c, $NFLX 6/17/22 780c
Trade price as of publish date: $16.75/cnt , $18.85/cnt
REACCUMULATION ON NETFLIX!Hello my beauties.
It seems that Netflix has entered and completed a reaccumulation phase. This is normally deduced from the higher highs the price creates. Its tendency to rise throughout the range without providing a SOW (sign of weakness) indicates strong interest in buying the dips.
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Luca, TrickleDownFX
Netflix Analysis, The Entry into The Gaming Sector Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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The market seems to be falling into a small sideways move for the last 10 days that's located between the ranges of 610.13 and 572.07.
NFLX has been doing great for itself, in the last month the stock jumped from 504.75 up to 615.75 that's a 22% increase which is huge and both the long and short-term trends are positive.
NFLX has an average volume of 3244020. This is a good sign as it is always nice to have a liquid stock.
Possible Scenarios for the market :
Scenario 1 :
The market is trading at 599.06 and it's crossed the first resistance located at 595.54 and it looks that it could be headed to the main resistance zone near the 607.23 area
If the market was able to breakout that zone we will be seeing a breakout of that sideways move that could lead the price to a new all-time high at the range of 636.36.
Scenario 2 :
In case the market continues his sideways move, we could see the price drop to the lower end of the channel near the 576.41 level and bounce back up after a battle over control between the Bears and Bulls with the winner most likely to be the Bulls.
The market will probably trade in the channel range for a while before reaching the resistance zone at 607.23 and breaking out of it.
Technical indicators show :
1) The market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign)
2) The RSI is at 62.54 showing Great strength in the market, IF the RSI drops from here it will Create a divergence with the market.
3) The ADX is at 33.01 Showing that the market is trending with a positive crossover between DI+ (27.21) and DI- (14.41)
Daily Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 576.16 1) 595.54
2) 568.47 2) 607.23
3) 556.79 3) 614.92
Weekly Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 573.88 1) 605.12
2) 555.36 2) 617.84
3) 542.64 3) 636.36
Fundamental point of view :
Netflix Completes The Acquisition of Night School........
for those who don't know Netflix has announced that it has completed the acquisition of Night School. The gaming studio is known for developing games and is behind the popular game Oxenfree.
This new project will provide Netflix with a lot of Value now that its steeping into the Gaming sector.
The VP added that Netflix is dedicated to building the creative capabilities and library of Netflix games with Night School. He added that Netflix intends to introduce exclusive games designed for various categories of gamers. The games will be included with its membership, and users will get to enjoy them with no ads or in-app purchases.
NFLX has a Return On Assets of 10.72%. This is amongst the best returns in the industry. The industry average is -3.91%. NFLX outperforms 90% of its industry peers.
NFLX's low PEG Ratio, which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company which could indicate a big increase in the stock price in the near future.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
NFLX LONG Bullish trend of Netflix, started in April 2020, seems to continue after the breakout of the channel formed in the last months. RSI shows us that is not overbought or oversold and ADX is above 40 indicating a very strong trend. Entry price would be close to previous support formed after breakout. Moreover, support coincides with 50 % Fibonacci suggesting a probably inversion of retracement formed in these days.
BUY ENTRY: $ 566.84
TAKE PROFIT: $ 614.21
TAKE PROFIT 2: $ 668.84
STOP LOSS $ 539.91
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NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
NETFLIX Can Fall : Pattern CompletedTraders, Netflix made a great run and never gave a a chance to short beyond our sell level. (See the attached previous analysis idea). Now Netflix has gone out of the range to
1. Collect stop losses hence create a bull trap
2. Complete a W pattern
3. Touch 600 psychological level which was missed last time
This not has a potential to fall to target below (white horizontal lines)
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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-Vik
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📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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The setup on NFLX is 100% ready. Full Explanation.In a previous post, we explained that we were waiting for a retest to develop setups after the breakout of the current range. You can check all the processes on related ideas.
Now the situation is ready. How will we proceed from here?
The setup execution is pretty straightforward; we will open bullish setups on a new ATH and define our stop loss below the current correction. We don't know yet how deep the correction will be, but we will keep moving the stop loss until we think this is no longer a correction but an evident bearish impulse.
The target we will be using at the moment is the Fibo Extensions of the whole range that was broken. Final Target: 772
The Risk rewards ratio we can expect on a setup like this is about 2 (however most of the cases in the past, the price goes far beyond that)
It's important to say that this setup after the breakout of a range on an ATH we have tested since the beginning of the NFLX chart, and our conclusions showed us that is a profitable pattern to trade. Why are we saying this? Because we have seen that sometimes the price executes the order, then goes directly to the stop loss, and the next movement is the beginning of the impulse. Based on that, we are willing to trade the same situation two consecutive times if the first pattern fails.
We will be risking 1.5% of our capital on this setup. The expected duration of the movement can go between 150 days to 250 days. (Patience patience, my friend)
Thanks for reading! Please share your thoughts or idea in the comments relative to NFLX.