Trading Plan after the breakout on NETFLIXToday we will speak about NETFLIX. These are the main elements we can see on the chart:
a) The price has been inside a consolidation of around 420 days. Now we have observed the breakout
b) Based on that, we want to see a 7 days correction (at least), and if that happens, we will set pending orders on the new ATH and stop loss below the correction
c) The expected duration of this setup is between 150 and 200 days.
d) The risk we will take here is 1% of our capital on the stop loss.
e) We have seen in the past scenarios like these ones where we have an execution followed by a stop. If that's the case, we know we will set new orders in that case. In other words, we are planing a 2nd execution in case of failure in the first one.
Thanks for reading!
Netflix
Netflix stock analysis. What to expect.Today I analyze NASDAQ:NFLX stock price movements.
Here I use my box strategy combined with Fib retracement.
NASDAQ:NFLX stock price is in a long-term rising trend channel.
However, it has been kept in a 465-575 range since June last year, hence the box formation.
There was an unseccessfull box breakout attempt in January 2021 where the price reversed to a long-term support level.
Shorter-term Fib retracement was drawn from the low on May 2021 bounce and up to this day.
Pivot points:
0.786 level acted as a solid support.
0.382 showed a proper resistence level.
0.236 level which matches supply level of the box at 575 was viciously broken.
Now I believe the price is overextended.
I expect it to return to the 0.236 level at the very least.
If overall market situation is stable when that happens, I believe the stock will continue to grow higher.
Trade wisely and good luck!
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise.
NFLX- Breakout
Hello,
I've been waiting for a NFLX breakout since we first entered the range in JULY 2020.
This week NFLX has made an all new high and looks to be closing above on the weekly above the range for the first time. If we can see a pullback to $560 and it is used as a support, I believe this will be an incredible buying opportunity.
Hopefully this will be during September.
Can Netflix find TP today❓🎯Entry details are shown on the chart.
Working the H1 time frame on this strategy.
We're only looking for TP3.
Stock ideas is something I'll be covering more going forward.
Can Netflix find the TP target today? We'll see.
Previous trades shown on chart for reference.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
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Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren.
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NFLX Analysis showing possible drop.NASDAQ:NFLX is currently at level 2 rise. This is why I'll say this is a 5/10 risky trade. Now, its important that we understand this M formation could mean the retrace of level 2 rise. I'll explain you why I think NFLX will drop. First of, we can see in the 1h time-frame we are in level 2 rise. We already broke the level 1 high so Market Maker can now retrace. On the other hand, retail traders think the previous high or resistance has been broke, retested and confirmed, so it's happy days and they can go long now. The problem is they forgot to see both ADR-High taps, NY session Stop-Hunt rise and the clear M formation. Also, before I forget to mention this, 1d time-frame shows something similar to the 1h time-frame, in other words, 1d time-frame is in level 2 rise, and the TDI is showing an M formation, in other words, a hint of price retracing.
Talking about TP's, I'll set them here:
"Resistance"
1st TP (20% of position)
563.11
Unrecovered Vector
2nd TP (30% of position)
549.66
1h nPOC
3rd TP (30% of position)
536.61
Unrecovered Vector
4th TP (20% of position)
523.75
Happy trading!
Let's get into some stock trades #3- NetflixNetflix has been chopping for more than a year now and consolidating really hard, but with a clear emphasis on the upside. It's still showing signs of strength and could move much higher pretty soon given that it's been in this range for 14 months. Don't know much about the financials of Netflix but I do know it's growing and is one of those companies that has a huge brand and is like many other companies more of a network than a company.
The path I've drawn isn't the path I think it will follow, but the path that it might follow if it wants to create more pain for all those that are long right now.
NFLX ShortEntry price: 559-569$
Target price: 502-510$
Keltner Channel: the price crossed the upper boundary.
RSI: indicator crossed 70 level, the market is overbought. Therefore, the bearish movement might occur.
Conclusions: RSI and Keltner Channels suggest the trend retracement. The short position is recommended after the price rejects from the resistance level.
no financial advice
NFLX: Triple Top Alert From the daily chart, looking at the ever strong Resistance of $557 Supply level that has been rejected more than 5 times since IPO, indicates that NFLX might be rejected once again. At 1HR chart, we can also see a triple top rejection at $556/$557 during the day. RSI is highly oversold. Expecting a downwards rejection on the strong resistance. However, if Nasdaq is performing well, this could be an opportunity of breaking out. Monitor closely on the next candle volume and price action. Nasdaq strong push is essential.
Netflix Is Just Chilling...For Now!Netflix is chilling at the moment and has been moving sideways now for a year now.
We saw some fast growth in their share value following the peak of the pandemic,
but the buyers have not been able to keep up the momentum.
Consolidation periods usually follow strong trends but if the overall strength of the
stock is still there, then price should be able to continue the trend sooner or later
The last consolidation period lasted for two years but we may not have to wait that
long this time but either way, we will only take action if price breaks above the
all-time high at $593.
Price is also hovering around the $500 round number, which is a psychological level
of support & resistance.
As the overall trend is bullish, we are anticipating a breakout to the upside before
considering opening up any positions.
This is quite an expensive stock, so it may not be suitable for all investors, but we
cover other good-looking opportunities in our posts.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Netflix Analysis, A breakout is near Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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The Netflix stock price is still trending in a sideways channel between the ranges of 478.73 and 565.39, the side movement of the trend is still not broken and the market is trending in the middle range of the channel, Note that the Major trend is still bullish for the stock with no major reversal signs yet.
We could be seeing a movement in the current trend in the next period of time which could affect the major trend, but a confirmation and a breakout is needed to say that the trend has changed.
Talking about a lower time frame, On the daily basis we are looking at 2 different Scenarios in the next few days :
Scenario 1 :
after a Bullish Harami pattern has emerged in the market, the price will most likely move up and hit the first resistance level at 529.81, if the Bulls were able to hold control then the price will keep going up and will be headed to the resistance line at 551.28 which would bring the Stock price to near the high edge of the channel where we could be seeing a Bullish breakout for the long term trend.
Scenario 2 :
The bears are still in control right now and will try to bring the stock price lower, their first stop would be the first support line at 508.34, where the Bulls will have a chance to regain control, but if the Bears were able to hold that control then we will be seeing the price going even lower and hitting the support line at 486.81 which would bring the stock price near the low edge of the channel where we could be a Bearish breakout for the long term trend.
Technical indicator showing :
1) The Market price for the daily trend is above the 5 10 50 100 200 MA and EMA (Bullish sign)
2) The RSI is at 49.66 showing that the market is in a Neutral state right now, a movement in the price could be up or down.
3) The Stoch is showing a positive crossover between %K and D%, No divergences were found between the indicator and the market. (Bullish sign)
4) The Ultimate Oscillator is at 60.033 and giving a buy signal.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 508.34 1) 529.81
2) 496.12 2) 539.06
3) 486.81 3) 551.28
Fundamental point of view :
A federal judge on Monday said Netflix Inc must face a defamation lawsuit by former Manhattan prosecutor Linda Fairstein over her portrayal as a racist and unethical villain in "When They See Us," a 2019 series about the Central Park Five case.
U.S. District Judge Kevin Castel in Manhattan said Fairstein had plausibly alleged defamation as to five scenes, including that she withheld evidence, coerced confessions and directed a racially discriminatory police roundup of young men in Harlem.
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 62.73% over the past year. Measured over the past 5 years, NFLX shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 81.41% on average per year.
The short term is neutral, but the long term trend is still positive. Not much to worry about for now.
NFLX is in better financial health than average in its industry. Its Altman-Z score is much better than the industry average of 2.50. An Altman-Z score of 6.53 indicates that NFLX is not in any danger of bankruptcy at the moment.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
Trading Plan for NFLX. Breakout, correction, and setup.Hi Guys, today we will share our view on NFLX. We think its an interesting chart due to the massive correction we can observe since July 2020
What is our plan? First of all, we want to observe a breakout. We are not interested in trading inside the current range. The level we will use to confirm the breakout is 600. IF the price reaches that level, we will consider that its time to look for the retest
What is a retest? Also known as Throwback in bullish impulses or Pullback on bearish impulses. It's the correction that happens after the price breaks a relevant level or structure. The small red arrow above the structure is our expected Throwback.
Great, what can I do with that?
Our plan is to wait for a clear throwback (between 7 to 15 days). IF that happens, we will use that structure to execute pending orders above (horizontal green line), and we will define our stop loss below the throwback—final Target on the 2nd fibo extension. (we defined this by using the previous impulse).
Risk
We will be risking between 1 to 2% of our trading Capita. (NEVER RISKED MORE)
What happens if the price doesn't do that?
We don't trade...
What happens if the price executes your order and then goes straight to your stop loss?
We have a stop loss...
Thanks for reading!
Netflix and chillIm reading this chart with a wyckoff view and it looks to be a reaccumulative pattern reaching its end
FAANG Stocks: Ready To FALL? Hidden Fibonacci Pattern FormingTraders, FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) share basket is forming a hidden pattern which can push these stocks down. However there are certain conditions that we must have. In this top down analysis we see how Fibonacci Confluence Pattern (FCP Pattern) is forming a zone which can create a massive trade opportunity.
If you are invested in any of these stocks then you must watch it so that you are aware of this. Also if you are looking for short opportunity because you think markets are over extended, then also you must be aware of this.
I also posted a similar pattern which is appearing on Netflix. Find that in the related ideas below.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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NETFLIX (NFLX): Can Fall Out Of The Consolidation NowTraders, Netflix has been running inside a consolidation range for a long time now and the close of this month can give us a good indication on the downward breakout of this consolidation. Expected targets based on FCP analysis are on the chart.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
NETFLIX: The End Of The GROWTH Story?
While many of you might be surprised to see anyone being bearish biased on NETFLIX of all things, I say that my bias has some solid basis underneath it
Firstly, let's deal with the elephant in the room: the whole market is a massive bubble with SPY gaining more than 100% from the Lows of the COVID crash, and NETFLIX gained 104%
One might say that gaining 104% in less than a year is a spectacular achievement, however, considering the fact that the company grew its business massively since the beginning of the lockdowns, outperforming the market by a mere 4% is a sign that the investors are beginning to get skeptical about the future growth, and that is the KEY
You see, all the tech stocks are a growth story, not the value story, and by the virtue of being a growth stock NTFLX is wildly overpriced with the P/E standing at 64, while the SPY benchmark P/E stands at 34 which means that NETFLIX is trading at a 100% premium to the market and that given that SPY is now full of tech growth stocks itself which skews the P/E to the upside, while also benefiting from the passive ETF flows which have determined the rapid market growth after 2008 that outpaced the GDP growth by a factor of 5
All of the above means that the moment Netflix stops being considered a growth story it will start falling to at least cover the gap with the SPY P/E and if it gets kicked out of the index it will lose all the passive inflows and the price will halve again.
So am I convinced that the Netflix growth is over? Let's take a look at the data:
Here is an extract from the LA Times article on the company:
«The streaming giant added a mere 1.5 million paying members globally in the second quarter, which is down 85% from the same period last year when it reported 10.1 million subscriber additions. The company also added 61% fewer subscribers than it did in the first quarter when it missed projections with 3.98 million new accounts. In the U.S. and Canada, Netflix lost about 430,000 paid memberships in the second quarter»
It means that the company gained almost all of the potential subscribers during the lockdowns, that it would have been gaining for years otherwise, as those who could/wanted to subscribe did so, and the pool of those that haven’t yet is relatively small.
Also, NETFLIX is finally losing its monopoly, which once brought fat margins, as the Disney+, HBO Max, and other players are gaining market share breathing down the company’s neck, which not only adds downward pressure to the subscription price but also increases the cost of the content, as the competition for quality scripts and actors drives the prices higher
That puts Netflix- once a king reigning supreme between the rock and the hard place, fighting for the market that is not growing as fast anymore while having to Lower the subscription prices and paying more for the content simultaneously.
And Unlike Google, Amazon, or Apple that have secured near-monopoly positions, tying their customers to the ecosystems and capitalizing on the Network effect, while having aces up their sleeves like championing General purpose AI or being on the cutting edge of quantum computing, Netflix has nothing to offer outside of their small niche and what is more important, the company’s product is easily replaceable and is not essential or even unique anymore.
Summing up, while I am not saying that the stock will collapse tomorrow when the crash comes, all everything falls, NETFLIX might be the one that never recovers.
SHORT TRADE SUGGESTION: buy PUT options that are 6 months and 1 year from now at the strikes that are at -50% of the current price and keep rolling the position with time.
You might get 20:1 or even 50:1 returns if you catch the crash!
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