Roku's Fibonacci drop analysisTechnical analysis
OBV keeps a steady uptrend, surprisingly... Since its price has dropped about 40%.
Fibonacci retracement has its 61.8% line at $102.
We are at a SMA(100) support.
Market moving out of growth, into value.
Moving market news
Pivotal research downgrades to $60 (SELL).
Comcast (CMCSA) is gifting its streaming box, it was selling it before at $5.
Note
* Keeping a tight stop limit, there is a great risk reward ratio.
Netflix
$NFLX is the rotten apple of the large cap bunch! Major Indices hitting their head against major resistance levels while Netflix is is breaking 20 day lows. Price could be heading to $231.26 and with high implied Volatility of 40% with could see a major move to the downside!
If the overall markets starts to roll over Netflix could get dragged down even further.
Netflix UpdateStock will retest 315-318 levels before failing a current triangle's lower trend line, thereby confirming the next support line, which forms a descending closing wedge . Will reach 230's by end of this year or early 2020 latest.
Other technicals have checked-out as well: Monthly Candle, BB, SMA, RSI, MACD, PSAR
(B = bear area, N = neutral area)
Netflix small breakout before continuationWatching this falling wedge for a small move to the 61.8% fib target. It's a counter-trend trade so it's tricky.
I'm taking my profits fast and will look for a longterm short after. Will only use a stop buy order to get myself in the trade, else will skip it.
THE BEST NETFLIX SETUP YOU WILL FIND THIS MONTHExcited to see the development of this one, with price currently respecting our first key level at $293 we can either expect some strong institutional pressure going long to kick in very soon, or if not then a push slightly down to $280 then proceeding with a solid push $385. We are looking to buy up to $385.
Please message me for further details or any help and blessed trading! :)
Disney the Netflix Killer?I can't see Disney taking meaningful shares from Netflix but
the chart is rather bullish
Break out & gap up after good earnings (announcement of Disney plus)
Stock has been consolidating for a few months, since gap up
Trading between the low $130s, high $140s.
A break above $140 and this can potentially hit $200.
NFLX, Netflix Inc. - Breakdown on Failed & ShouldersNASDAQ:NFLX
We do not short Netflix because we really like the fundamentals of this company, although it is not yet profitable in their financials until it reaches a certain number of subscribers that is approaching as the company goal, and that grows steadily.
The business model has destroyed many competitors (Blockbuster above all) and is an exceptional platform for films and series.
Very nice brokendown pattern on the Failed Head & Shoulders. Let's monitor it with the hope of getting us back on one of our 20 favourite companies.
finance.yahoo.com
Elliott Wave View: Netflix Structure Looking Further DownsideElliott Wave structure in Netflix shows an incomplete bearish sequence suggesting the stock should continue to see selling pressure. On the chart below, the rally to 316.59 ended wave 2. The stock has extended lower in wave 3 with the internal unfolding as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 316.59, wave ((i)) ended at 288 and wave ((ii)) ended at 311.75.
Wave ((i)) subdivided in another impulse structure of lesser degree. Wave (i) ended at 305.68 and wave (ii) ended at 316.43. Stock resumed lower and ended wave (iii) at 292.65, wave (iv) ended at 301.73 and wave (v) of ((i)) completed at 288. The internal of wave ((ii)) correction subdivided as a zigzag. Wave (a) ended at 303.55, wave (b) ended at 295.76, and wave (c) of ((ii)) ended at 311.75.
Wave ((iii)) is currently in progress and the internal subdivides as a 5 waves impulse of lesser degree. Down from 311.75, wave (i) ended at 293.15. Expect wave (ii) bounce to hold below 311.75, and more importantly below 316.59 for further downside. We don’t like buying the stock. As far as pivot at 316.59 high stays intact, the stock should resume lower. The bearish view will get further validation if the stock is able to break below August 15 low (288).
I'd Wait Another 100 Bucks before Buying $NFLX NetflixNFLX Just an observation on the lifetime channel of NFLX Netflix. It seems to me that any increased selling pressure should easily bring this down to the 200 range by the end of September without breaking much of a sweat. I'm looking for the RSI support break myself. Note the Klinger Oscillator has crosed over bearish, turned below zero and began to spread. Not a good sign for now. Whatever your beliefs in this stock fundamentally may be, I won't argue. But technically, I would not go long this stock until it either touches its midpoint line around the 200 area or it broke above its ATH. I don't care how much gain I would miss in between, because my piece of mind being able to sleep knowing I'm not worrying to death over my NFLX investment is worth way more. Much much better opportunities in the market at this time than this stock. Just one man's opinion. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
NETFLIX SHORTNETFLIX continues to make new lows, this may suggest a continuation to trend support before turning around.
If you can trade forex, why not try out stocks, it's a bit of fun especially Netflix is an "AMERICAN COMPANY" ;)
The core business of Netflix is favorable, but the current price is gravely overvalued. Although the level of debt is mild, last year´s performance was high, and the financial solidity is favorable, the company has serious problems. The level of risk is tremendous, the potential upside is dreadful, the expected performance for next year is horrible.
Are We Nearing The End of An Era? (Amazon & Netflix)In the last year or so, any time I've said to certain people that I thought Amazon, Apple, and other tech giants were in a bubble, they thought I was crazy. But now...I've noticed people are starting to worry. The chart looks scary. If the double-top is confirmed, and these guys break down below their December 2018 lows, we could easily see our first widespread stock market panic since 2008. Growth has stagnated, yet the job market is flourishing. Friends of mine are making six-figures right off the bat at tech companies I've never heard of, acting as glorified secretaries. Things don't add up. Where does this money come from?
Back in December, I wrote a few pieces on why I thought big tech was going to slow down. My primary feeling is that things have changed too rapidly in our every day lives for us to both biologically and psychologically cope with all this innovation. I think people are pretty satisfied with the current level of technological innovation, but they're dissatisfied in other areas (income, family, relationships, etc.). Opioid abuse is on the rise. Why do you think that is? People are lost. When everyone starts to give up and look for other routes for fulfillment, there is a point at which people will refuse to pay higher prices for things that give minimal reward. That's not to say that I don't think there will be more innovation. I just don't really see us adapting quickly to this growth. I believe things really need to slow down. When people stop desiring the newest and best thing enough to pay for it, these companies stop making money. Guess what? The growth has been so unsustainable that they cannot afford to stop making money, even for a little while. It's totally ridiculous. The proof of this is the panicky response of the FED to any sort of potential stock market worry. They're like my 11-month old kitten.
Articles keep popping up about how it's not time to panic "yet." The problem with these soothsaying excuses for journalism is that it will be too late. Even the media can't afford to lose money. No one wants a crash, because it would be devastating. But that's life! You can deny the hardships of existence all you want, but eventually things will turn bad. But hopefully, if things turn bad, they won't stay that way. Another pet peeve of mine is seeing two articles from Barron's within the SAME day: "Stocks Surge Because The Trade War May Not Be That Bad" and "Stocks Plunge Because The Trade War Is Far Worse Than We Imagined." Get it together! The trade war is not the primary cause of economic uncertainty. It's our own greed and our pathetic debt-fueled economy.
People are already starting to heavily weigh the risk/reward of staying in certain equities. People are even getting out of more speculative markets like marijuana and smaller crypto projects because they're reducing risk exposure. Yeah, maybe stocks have a liiiiitle bit of upside. But the downside? Anyone with a brain can look at the two above charts and see that there is a lot of room to fall. These are shown in linear scale to emphasize the parabolic nature of the growth we've experienced in the last decade. I picked Amazon and Netflix, because I see their business models as particularly fragile. Too big to fall? Just look at these charts. There is hardly technical support after the December lows are breached until roughly 50% down from that point. What does that tell you about the nature of the growth?
I could make an attempt to go into the real economic factors that would drive a 60-95% decline for many tech companies, but there are much more seasoned economists/analysis out there. I'm simply a guy who likes reading charts, sentiment, and particularly the psychology behind denial and delusion. Everyone's guilty of these things, including myself. That's the only way to understand it.
In my opinion:
Likelihood of sustained upside from here is less than 20%
Likelihood of extended bear market (negative 60-90 percent returns) from here is around 60% . This could even extend into the latter half of the 2020's, marking the next decade with poverty and upheaval, but hopefully resulting in some positive change.
Likelihood of a medium sized drop and then long consolidation I think is around 20%. That's only if regulatory and financial authorities figure out a solution.
If we really start to see breakdowns, I'll probably post some more short setups for some stocks, just for fun.
Netflix Bearish Targets:
230-245
130
82
46 (roughly 90% down from peak)
Amazon Bearish Targets:
1320
693
288-300 (possible bear market bottom) - Roughly 85% decline from peak.
As you can see, the potential deepest retraces for these equities are perfectly in line with previous bubble pops. We may not ever get down there, but there is substantial risk for it to happen. As for where all that money will go? Already some of it is fleeing towards precious metals and a little bit of Bitcoin. Buying property with cash is probably something people are doing as well. It'll be really interesting to see what happens.
It would be silly of me not to mention potential upside, by the way. I said I thought it was unlikely at this point (particularly due to the inability of the Dow Jones to sustain a new high above 27000), but it's perfectly possible if a magical stimulus is introduced that pumps the market with more fake money. Based on the potential double-top in the Amazon and Netflix charts above , it seems that people are no longer falling for these shenanigans, but you never know. Microsoft, for example, has blown past the potential double-top target from earlier this year (chart linked at bottom). MSFT is an outlier though. I posted a fractal analysis on the DJI a while ago. The in-depth analysis below shows that there could be more upside before the fractal potential completes, sending us into a downward spiral of uncertain depths. In this chart, you can see that the "mania" phase might have been short-lived compared with 1929. At least that would mean downside may not be as severe as the Great Depression.
This is basically me ranting my opinion. No one should take this as financial advice. These are purely my thoughts on the current situation. Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
Netlifx - Long term Bullish ! Short/Medium term bearish !Netflix - This one is looking pretty descent for a long term Investment.
Looks like price is going for ~200 before going up to 600-800.
Daily - Price stopped exactly at the 78.6% retracement level and started going down. We might see some intraday correction to the upside but it looks like the way to go is down.
Notice that because we should be in a fourth wave, a triangle is also quite likely.
So, short term, use any rise to sell it.
~200 seems to be a good place to look for support and even start buying but we'll know that depending on how price unfolds while falling.
Is it Time to Buy Back Netflix?Looking at the shorter time frame, I would like to see Netflix come down a bit before we start pulling the trigger on buying, but I am fairly confident in the Longer term trade. If Netflix can build momentum and hold these support levels, it is looking like a strong trade!
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