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Netflix

Are We Nearing The End of An Era? (Amazon & Netflix)In the last year or so, any time I've said to certain people that I thought Amazon, Apple, and other tech giants were in a bubble, they thought I was crazy. But now...I've noticed people are starting to worry. The chart looks scary. If the double-top is confirmed, and these guys break down below their December 2018 lows, we could easily see our first widespread stock market panic since 2008. Growth has stagnated, yet the job market is flourishing. Friends of mine are making six-figures right off the bat at tech companies I've never heard of, acting as glorified secretaries. Things don't add up. Where does this money come from? Back in December, I wrote a few pieces on why I thought big tech was going to slow down. My primary feeling is that things have changed too rapidly in our every day lives for us to both biologically and psychologically cope with all this innovation. I think people are pretty satisfied with the current level of technological innovation, but they're dissatisfied in other areas (income, family, relationships, etc.). Opioid abuse is on the rise. Why do you think that is? People are lost. When everyone starts to give up and look for other routes for fulfillment, there is a point at which people will refuse to pay higher prices for things that give minimal reward. That's not to say that I don't think there will be more innovation. I just don't really see us adapting quickly to this growth. I believe things really need to slow down. When people stop desiring the newest and best thing enough to pay for it, these companies stop making money. Guess what? The growth has been so unsustainable that they cannot afford to stop making money, even for a little while. It's totally ridiculous. The proof of this is the panicky response of the FED to any sort of potential stock market worry. They're like my 11-month old kitten. Articles keep popping up about how it's not time to panic "yet." The problem with these soothsaying excuses for journalism is that it will be too late. Even the media can't afford to lose money. No one wants a crash, because it would be devastating. But that's life! You can deny the hardships of existence all you want, but eventually things will turn bad. But hopefully, if things turn bad, they won't stay that way. Another pet peeve of mine is seeing two articles from Barron's within the SAME day: "Stocks Surge Because The Trade War May Not Be That Bad" and "Stocks Plunge Because The Trade War Is Far Worse Than We Imagined." Get it together! The trade war is not the primary cause of economic uncertainty. It's our own greed and our pathetic debt-fueled economy. People are already starting to heavily weigh the risk/reward of staying in certain equities. People are even getting out of more speculative markets like marijuana and smaller crypto projects because they're reducing risk exposure. Yeah, maybe stocks have a liiiiitle bit of upside. But the downside? Anyone with a brain can look at the two above charts and see that there is a lot of room to fall. These are shown in linear scale to emphasize the parabolic nature of the growth we've experienced in the last decade. I picked Amazon and Netflix, because I see their business models as particularly fragile. Too big to fall? Just look at these charts. There is hardly technical support after the December lows are breached until roughly 50% down from that point. What does that tell you about the nature of the growth? I could make an attempt to go into the real economic factors that would drive a 60-95% decline for many tech companies, but there are much more seasoned economists/analysis out there. I'm simply a guy who likes reading charts, sentiment, and particularly the psychology behind denial and delusion. Everyone's guilty of these things, including myself. That's the only way to understand it. In my opinion: Likelihood of sustained upside from here is less than 20% Likelihood of extended bear market (negative 60-90 percent returns) from here is around 60% . This could even extend into the latter half of the 2020's, marking the next decade with poverty and upheaval, but hopefully resulting in some positive change. Likelihood of a medium sized drop and then long consolidation I think is around 20%. That's only if regulatory and financial authorities figure out a solution. If we really start to see breakdowns, I'll probably post some more short setups for some stocks, just for fun. Netflix Bearish Targets: 230-245 130 82 46 (roughly 90% down from peak) Amazon Bearish Targets: 1320 693 288-300 (possible bear market bottom) - Roughly 85% decline from peak. As you can see, the potential deepest retraces for these equities are perfectly in line with previous bubble pops. We may not ever get down there, but there is substantial risk for it to happen. As for where all that money will go? Already some of it is fleeing towards precious metals and a little bit of Bitcoin. Buying property with cash is probably something people are doing as well. It'll be really interesting to see what happens. It would be silly of me not to mention potential upside, by the way. I said I thought it was unlikely at this point (particularly due to the inability of the Dow Jones to sustain a new high above 27000), but it's perfectly possible if a magical stimulus is introduced that pumps the market with more fake money. Based on the potential double-top in the Amazon and Netflix charts above , it seems that people are no longer falling for these shenanigans, but you never know. Microsoft, for example, has blown past the potential double-top target from earlier this year (chart linked at bottom). MSFT is an outlier though. I posted a fractal analysis on the DJI a while ago. The in-depth analysis below shows that there could be more upside before the fractal potential completes, sending us into a downward spiral of uncertain depths. In this chart, you can see that the "mania" phase might have been short-lived compared with 1929. At least that would mean downside may not be as severe as the Great Depression. This is basically me ranting my opinion. No one should take this as financial advice. These are purely my thoughts on the current situation. Thanks for your support! -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by VictorCobra
10
Netlifx - Long term Bullish ! Short/Medium term bearish !Netflix - This one is looking pretty descent for a long term Investment. Looks like price is going for ~200 before going up to 600-800. Daily - Price stopped exactly at the 78.6% retracement level and started going down. We might see some intraday correction to the upside but it looks like the way to go is down. Notice that because we should be in a fourth wave, a triangle is also quite likely. So, short term, use any rise to sell it. ~200 seems to be a good place to look for support and even start buying but we'll know that depending on how price unfolds while falling.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
Is it Time to Buy Back Netflix?Looking at the shorter time frame, I would like to see Netflix come down a bit before we start pulling the trigger on buying, but I am fairly confident in the Longer term trade. If Netflix can build momentum and hold these support levels, it is looking like a strong trade! The Megalodon indicator uses a machine learning algorithm, combined with data from over 500 buy setups, and over 2000 indicators to produce extremely accurate buy signals on any and all asset classes! You will also receive real time buy and sell signals for the stock market, cryptocurrency, as well as forex markets! We also completed our cryptocurrency automated trade bot. It trades for you, using our backtested indicator with phenomenal results! So try it today!!!
NASDAQ:NFLX
by RandallGurule
Roku (ROKU) priced for a move of 16.5%Roku (ROKU) August weekly 101 straddle priced for a move of 16.5% into the expected release of quarterly results after the bell on August 7th 2019. What is a straddle: A straddle entails buying a call and put of the same strike that allows the holder to profit based on how much the price of the underlying security moves, regardless of the direction of price movement. *Trading a stock after earnings is less risky, and could prove to be a great idea to buy dips. / Instead of buying pre-earnings.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by dorfmanmaster
1
NFLX approaching the 100 week moving average, potential reversalNFLX fell off a cliff following some bad FA news. The sentiment around the stock is pretty bearish given this, and there has been tons of bearish articles that have come out, but I think this could be a fantastic buying opportunity as it is close to its 100 weekly moving average, which held the price on the previous drop back in October-November of 2018. High risk per usual given the bad news recently among other factors (such as increasing competition.) If price has a weekly close below the 100 week MA, we will most likely be eyeing the 200 weekly MA as the next potential reversal point. Entry: 303-320 Target 1: 50 week moving average (currently around 338.) SL: Weekly close under the 100 week MA. Only focusing on 1 target for now as need to see price develop over the next few days and weeks to get a better idea of whether or not this will rebound back toward that 360-370 level. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress. -As a side note, if you would like to support a college kid and the TA I do, I accept BTC/ETH/LTC/USDC donations. Any and all donations are greatly appreciated and really do help me out! Thank you to all you who donate. :) BTC: 3F13946JWfNskLDu2oi3FTRV65FV9yK7U8 ETH: 0xe032430f158966F4118af917b5F1e024949697bB LTC: MVDbAhm2yoyCzeRnayMN61oZp75MZ5SZVj USDC: 0x1F6d47a9330897d6043886d64738A2E255dd0b92
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Deftsuo
BE READY TO BUY CALLS ON NETFIX NO RESISTANCE TILL 340 Obviously the results on NETFLIX WERE REALLY GOOD financially speaking !!!! What the market forget is the big picture that net subscribers increase a lot during the first two quarters at a higher price point. this miss target happened last year as well at Q2 so seasonality is a factor here, especially people star their new subscription at the beginning and end of year mostly. Very unlikely the stock will go south from here and i bet it will recover to 340 rapidly So few strategies to play price when written 324,97 - SELL PUTS WHILE THEY ARE STILL EXPENSIVE AT THE MONEY OR SLIGHTLY IN THE MONEY : 1000 $ one month per contract - buy the stock now and lock in the profit at 325 for 1000 $ again per contract : 3% locked over 1 month or take the strike higher to 340 $ : if triggered 1503 profit from shares + 510 $ contract = 2013 $ on 32497 = 6,1% over one month I guess you get my point now , play around strikes and put/calls however you like and enjoy the money while the IV is high! IF NOT TRIGGERED ROLL OVER THIS AND ENJOY THE PREMIUM + PROFIT
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by PhilippeDelpCFA
3
Netflix, Much Needed CorrectionNetflix after printing 3 day bearish divergence, price needs to breathe and come down to that red line on RSI to start printing bullish divergence. It appears price has completed a expanded flat elliott wave type pattern, and because of this I now assume 5 waves down before a real reversal to possibly go make new highs. On Balance Volume also diverging bearishly as supply is being dumped with not enough buyers to clean it up. Also, a longer term correction could fulfill a bullish butterfly, but I personally do not see price getting there anytime soon. This is truly just educational and posting this for myself to look back on.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by thejdela
SOLD MORE PUT ON THE HIGHER IV NETFLIX 360 @ 11$ 19/07 yesterday was expecting a higher vol on Netflix so placed an extra limit order at 11 (remember Friday was at 7,80) When the stock reached 362 the trade triggered and went even to 11,80 each share !!!!! before coming back quickly to 369 As I said 360 is a great support for ST trading. Lets see what the results will be today on Netflix but pre market is up , maybe those fearing bad reaction sold off already so i guess buyers will enter the stock today if want benefit the result earnings. I have enough exposure on Netflix so will just let the position with 2 short at 9,80 $ average price or 1880 / 72000 = 2,6% trade in one week !!!! Happy to get triggered so i can sell covered call on the stocks with high IV.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by PhilippeDelpCFA
PUTS on NETFLIX VERY HOT RIGHT NOW 19/07 1000 + $ per contract PUTS ON NEFLIX EXP IN TWO DAYS STILL TRADE AT 1000 $ PER CONTRACT !!!!!! I am already loaded so i prefer to wait for the results tonite and see where the price go The 362 resistance still work ST i placed my bet at 360 BE READY TOMORRROW MORNING TO TRADE THE PUTS EVEN AT 50% DISCOUNT IF THE PRICE SHOOT UP IF NOT SELL PUTS AT A MUCH LOWER STRIKE WOULD SAY 340 BUT SURE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOSE TO 1000 $ FOR TWO DAYS
NASDAQ:NFLX
by PhilippeDelpCFA