Netflix
NFLX ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:NFLX chart mapping/analysis.
Bullish recovery back into ascending parallel channel (green).
Bull target(s)
Breakout descending parallel channel (white) + descending trend-line confluence resistance
Overhead gap fills (~470 / ~506.93 / ~566.88)
Golden Pocket Fib + gap fill (~506.93) confluence resistance zone
Bear target(s)
Underlying gap fills (~412.52 / ~354.79 / ~341.38)
Ascending trend-line support (light blue dotted)
38.2% Fib
23.6% Fib
Netflix Surges 28% Since Q3 EarningsNetflix's stock in 2021 has been a rollercoaster, starting with a strong 62% rise by July, nearing the $500 mark, before experiencing a sharp downturn. The stock fell below the crucial 200-day moving average to around $370, marking a significant 28% drop, but found some support at the weekly 50-day average near $350.
The Q3 earnings report was a turning point, with actual earnings of $3.73 surpassing the estimated $3.49. This led to a positive market reaction, with the stock opening 16% higher post-announcement and climbing 28% since then. The surge in earnings was primarily due to robust subscriber growth, a key indicator of the company's future financial health and stock potential.
Looking ahead, Netflix faces major resistance levels, first at the $500 psychological mark, and then at last year's high of $609. Overcoming these barriers could signal further bullish trends. As of November, the stock is showing strong performance with an 8% increase, adding to the positive outlook among investors.
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netflix approaching a big jumping pointHoly smokes, this is lining up for one huge final pump. If she holds 365, there is potential to rocket all the way up to 436. It won't be in 1 night, you'll have time to buy and sell, but it won't be a lot of time. You'll likely start seeing big AH movements, and a bunch of solid green days in a row as it climbs.
There is a chance it breaks down to 333, but again, there should be time to exit and reset your trade before it gets all the way down there. I would favor the upside pretty heavily on this trade, however, WAIT until it bounces off trend. If it hits the red trend, enter short on the rejection. If it climbs down and hits the green, go long on the support bounce.
Apple - Sick Fundamentals Mean a New All Time HighI have recent calls on the SPX
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo
The Nasdaq
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?
SPY
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?
And Tesla
Tesla - Remember, The Ponzi Always Continues
Which generally have a bullish-into-year-end thesis accompanying them, but caution that an October bottom for the second year in a row and a mega three day rally to start November may be something of a trap.
When it comes to Apple, we have reservations that we topped under $200, for really obvious reasons, especially considering that on the monthly, the last three months of bearish price action haven't been that bearish.
Yet, because the weekly shows us that there are two bars under $150 and $140 from last year that never printed a low, that those areas are probably protected until Apple starts to seriously deflate and enter an end-of-life cycle bear market.
If Apple is going to enter an end of life cycle bear market, the MMs will 100% take out the $200 range and sell everything there first.
So, fundamentally, why would Apple be at the end of its life? The answer is simple: the company, all these years, wed itself to the Chinese Communist Party, which is the scourge of humanity, The Beast, and the benefactor to Babylon (Shanghai).
There's lots of really horrific data involving Apple numbers and the Chinese market right now, and the CCP under Xi Jinping is also rushing to replace other phone companies with domestic product, like the notorious Huawei.
The elephant in the room when it comes to cellular and computer purchases in China is that they're down because there are less people in China as a result of the enormous damage the novel pneumonia pandemic that originated in Wuhan City has caused.
SARS 1 in 2003 was covered up by the Party. The CCP made it seem like only a few thousand people died, when in reality, some accounts have stated that several million people died.
Today, the Party still claims that less than 122,000 people died from COVID-19, despite China being the epicentre of the disease.
You don't need an expert, or even a calculator, to figure out what's really going on and why the Chinese economy is in trouble.
What's at stake for Xi and his faction is the 24-year-long organ harvesting genocide and persecution against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
Although Xi has not participated in the persecution, and has, to the contrary, been killing via his Anti-corruption Campaign the Jiang Zemin faction who started and maintained the persecution all these years, the problem is that Xi is the head of the Party.
When you kill a dragon, you decapitate it. But first, you start with its tail. And it's telling that former Premier Li Keqiang died a few weeks ago, merely in his 60s, at the hands of "an heart attack."
So the fundamentals on Apple are bad because of China. So, with great faith in the principle of reversed logic, we actually look for longs with the chance to sell over $200.
But the charts, as they stand, are not giving us a long signal.
Everything, including Apple, bounced so hard in the first three days of November, and for Apple this came on the back of an earnings report, that we have to view the situation with major reservations, expecting that the candle painting of the low for the monthly bar has not yet been completed.
Last October, Apple pretended to bottom, pretended to double bottom in November, and then gave it all back and set the low of the year at the end of 2022, and all of this happened while the indexes had properly bottomed in October.
There was none of that "Magnificent 7" talk back then.
So, how to trade this? I think it's wiser to go long on a breakout over $183 in a size that allows you to take partials at $198, $205, and $215 than it is to have bought in the last three days.
And if we do dump, where we're looking for reversal patterns is at or below the April of 2022 low at $159.80~.
But if we're about to moon for manipulation, we're actually likely to see a sweep just below the current November low of $167.90.
So long as you can buy there without getting expired worthless on some short dated options, you'll have the best chance to ride the manipulation wave.
But be careful. When it's time for the CCP to fall, all the bigger dominoes go with it, because they're all really lesser dominoes.
Gap down overnight because of the time difference between Beijing and Manhattan means margin calls that scale in brutality, because Wall Street won't be in the mood to go risk on anything ever again.
Nor will it have the money or the breath to.
The Netflix: Streaming The Stock's PotentialKEY POINTS
a. Netflix now has 15 million subscribers in its ad-supported tier.
b. The company is also rolling out new ad products.
c. The success of the new subscription tier is just one of the reasons the stock has surged this year.
The leading streamer just hit a key milestone with its ad business.
Netflix (NFLX 1.80%) was one of the best-performing stocks of the 2010s, but for much of the current decade, the once-meteoric growth stock has struggled to achieve liftoff.
The company got a temporary boost from the pandemic, only to give it all back and then some when the economy reopened in 2022, and it lost subscribers two quarters in a row. Since then, the streaming leader has regrouped, launching initiatives that some investors had long asked for, such as adding an ad-supported tier and cracking down on password sharing.
The results of those moves have been overwhelmingly successful with the stock up 47% year to date, even as many of its streaming peers like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are trading near 52-week lows.
With the help of paid sharing, Netflix has added nearly 15 million new subscribers over the last two quarters, beating its total additions from the previous five quarters. The stock jumped following the third-quarter earnings report in October on strong subscriber growth as well.
Building on this recent momentum, Netflix provided an update Wednesday that shows its new ad-based strategy is paying off.
A key milestone
It's been one year since the company launched its ad-supported tier in a handful of its biggest markets, and the company said the new service has now signed up 15 million subscribers, up from just 5 million in May. That news should not only tamp down concerns that growth from this tier has been weaker than expected but also show that the ad-supported option is clearly resonating with subscribers. Additionally, it's impressive to see those gains coming at a time when much of the digital advertising industry is struggling.
That figure represents more than half of net subscriber additions over the last year, though some of the ad-tier subscribers likely traded down from the more expensive ad-free tiers, especially after Netflix just raised prices on some of its plans in the U.S., U.K., and France.
Netflix has also refined its advertising product since launch and now offers five different ad lengths, ranging from 10 seconds to 60 seconds. It also offers targeting to mobile devices as well as options like more genres, time of day, and new audience demographics. Downloads are expected to be available by the end of the week, making Netflix the only ad-supported streamer to offer downloads.
The company has more new features planned for next year, including a binge-watching bonus that gives ad-tier subscribers an ad-free episode after they've watched three episodes in a row. It will also begin offering QR codes in ads and is expanding its partnerships program globally, allowing advertisers to sponsor certain shows.
Netflix's ad-supported tier may cannibalize some ad-free subscribers, but that's part of the company's strategy. Offering ads gives it cover to raise prices on ad-free tiers, as it just did, allowing the company to make more money from the ad-free side of the business (with the idea that the ad-supported tier should be revenue-neutral compared to the ad-free subscription, as it has been for Hulu).
The ad-tier option also capitalizes on massive existing demand from advertisers. As former CEO Reed Hastings noted in an Oct. 2022 earnings call, advertisers have been left behind by the transition to streaming and are anxious to follow the eyeballs that have already gravitated over to streaming services.
With more than 200 million subscribers globally, intimate knowledge of their viewing habits, and the ability to perform precise targeting, Netflix can offer advertisers much more than a traditional linear TV platform.
Why it's a buy
A little more than a year ago, investors seemed to think the growth story at Netflix was over. However, the recent rebound and strength from paid sharing and advertising shows the streamer's second act is well underway.
The company forecast subscriber additions of around 9 million in the current quarter, showing the recent momentum should continue, and its subscription business model means that incremental revenue flows through to the bottom line. Indeed, management sees operating margin improving from 20% this year to 22% to 23% in 2024.
If Netflix can continue to deliver subscriber growth, there's room for profits to go significantly higher. The success of the ad-supported tier will only make that easier.
[EN] Netflix at all-time highs // GaliortiTrading NASDAQ:NFLX in late July attacked the 61.8% Fibonacci of the entire previous decline since November 2021 . It pulled back to its liquidity zone between $370-385 from which it has made a new impulse. Final target: new all-time highs .
1 M
On a long term chart we note that NASDAQ:NFLX in July 2022 rested on its bullish trendline to develop a new bullish leg . Its final target for the next few years would be around $2,000.
1 W
In the shorter term on a weekly chart we observe that NASDAQ:NFLX is developing a symmetrical triangle that is highly likely to break to the upside . The minimum target for such a breakout would take it to around $580 . It should be remembered that the first obstacle after that breakout will be the 61.8% Fibonacci ($492) so it is likely to make a pull-back to the breakout line. In addition, the bearish gap from the end of July will be a resistance to be taken into account.
The 470-495$ is a great liquidity zone that will allow it to perform a new bullish wave with a first target at 580$ (target of the broken triangle) and a second target at new all-time highs.
1 D
The company's third quarter results have led to a large bullish gap with a large volume (the second largest of the year), this translates a great strength as demonstrated by the verticality of the rise. It is logical that in the coming days there could be a correction as prices hit the medium-term downtrend line . It will be a healthy and necessary correction to develop a new momentum that will allow it to definitively leave the 61.8% Fibonacci level .
Pablo G.
NETFLIX Can it realistically reach $600 in this environment?Netflix (NFLX) has established itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the aggressive price jump of October 19 on its bullish earnings. Still, the price is failing to break above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the blue Channel Down and technically the longer it fails to do so, the higher the chances become of a rejection. Until that happens, we can see that during similar 1D MA50 consolidations after price jumps in the recent past, Netflix rallied more. Now it has the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) as its long-term Support, hence a potential new rally can be even stronger.
The previous 3 medium-term rallies have hit (or marginally missed) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so that is our target in case the price breaks above the top of the Channel Down. $600 is technically fair as it is on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Bullish Megaphone. Time-wise, this target is achievable by January 2024 as this is what the Sine Waves suggest. As you can see all 3 previous Higher Highs have been within the peak spectrum of the Sine Wave.
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Netflix Surges 16% Post Earnings!Netflix's stock surged 16% due to a 70% spike in subscribers for its new ad-supported tier, adding over 8 million users.
This pushed the global subscriber count to 247 million, marking the largest growth since Q2 2020, a period influenced by pandemic-driven home entertainment demand.
Financially, Q3 earnings exceeded expectations: projected at $3.49, they reached $3.73.
Although the stock previously neared a concerning $300, positive earnings pushed it back up past the $400 level.
Yet, a challenge remains: breaking the $423 resistance level from June 2018.
Still, with a 7% rise in October and a 37% annual increase, the outlook remains optimistic.
NETFLIX Up +18% today, sending a message to the market.Netflix made a huge price jump today, opening on the MA50 (1d) for the first time in more than 1 month.
It remains under the Falling Resistance, but held the Rising Support trend lines of the Bullish Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses over the Falling Resistance or if it hits the MA200 (1d) again.
Targets:
1. 508.45 (January 20th 2020 gap).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) made a huge oversold jump. Similar jumps can be seen on March 9th 2023 and May 9th 2022, both market bottoms.
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Netflix Jumps 14% After Surge In 3rd Quarter SubscribersNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares jumped more than 13.5% in pre-market Thursday trading after it handily beat profit expectations as subscriber numbers rose.
The streaming giant reported earnings per share of $3.73 on revenue of $8.54 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $3.49 and revenue of $8.54 billion. The third quarter results beat Netflix’s previous guidance.
The company said paid subscribers rose 8.76 million in the third quarter, well above expectations for just over 6 million.
“The last six months have been challenging for our industry given the combined writers and actors strikes in the US,” Netflix said in a shareholder letter, noting that while the writers’ strike has ended, it continues to talk to the actors’ unions. “We’re committed to resolving the remaining issues as quickly as possible so everyone can return to work making movies and TV shows that audiences will love.”
For the fourth quarter, Netflix sees earnings per share of $2.15 and revenue of about $8.69 billion. The revenue growth is expected to be around 10.7%, after growing 7.8% in the third quarter.
The company said operating margin in the third quarter was 22.4%, slightly above its guidance, and it sees 2023 operating margin near the top of its range at 20%.
KeyBanc analysts upgraded shares to Overweight with a $510 per share price target.
"In my my own view, Netflix is entering 2024 a cleaner story as: 1) paid sharing appears to have changed Netflix's ability to reach the next ~250M subs; 2) operating profit and FCF are steadily ramping; and 3) buybacks should support a 25%+ EPS growth profile," they said in an upgrade note.
JPMorgan analysts hiked the price target to $480 per share on the Overweight-rated stock.
"We’re encouraged that NFLX is executing on Paid Sharing by converting borrower households, contributing to revenue acceleration to +12% FXN in 4Q, & we believe the forecast for similar net adds to 3Q +/- a few million should skew to the upside given more favorable seasonality in 4Q & a strong content slate," the analysts wrote.
NFLXNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares surged over 10% in after-hours trading after surpassing profit expectations and seeing a rise in subscribers. In Q3, they reported an EPS of $3.73 and revenue of $8.54 billion, exceeding analyst predictions. Paid subscribers grew by 8.76 million, well above expectations. While industry challenges persisted due to strikes, Netflix is committed to resolving issues and anticipates a Q4 EPS of $2.15 and revenue of about $8.69 billion, with a 2023 operating margin near the top of its range at 20%.
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Netflix user growth to prove recent correction is a spikeNetflix's third-quarter 2023 results will be announced on Wednesday after the stock market closes
The company has implemented a policy prohibiting the sharing of accounts outside the household
Will that reflect in the earnings, making the stock correction a buying opportunity?
The global entertainment landscape has undergone a transformative shift with the rise of streaming platforms, effectively eclipsing traditional media such as television.
Leading this digital revolution is Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), providing audiences access to an extensive library of movies and series for a modest subscription fee.
As we approach Wednesday, expectations are running high for the release of Netflix's third-quarter results, a key event in light of the platform's recent policy shift regarding password sharing.
Introduced in May of this year, this change aimed to curb the unauthorized sharing of accounts and appears to be having the desired effect, as user numbers continue to grow – a change that is poised to manifest itself in the forthcoming third-quarter figures.
Yet, intriguingly, despite Netflix's robust user growth, its stock has been navigating a broad correction phase, prompting speculation that the conclusion of this adjustment may yield results exceeding current forecasts.
In the lead-up to the results, all eyes are on Netflix's projected earnings per share, which currently stand at an estimated $3.48, alongside revenues totaling $8.53 billion.
Notably, the forecast has experienced a remarkable 24 upward revisions, with only 3 instances of downward revision, indicating a high level of market anticipation.
NETFLIX: Buy opportunity on a 4 month stretch.NFLX is trying to find support on the 1D MA200, which is at the bottom of a (longer than a year) Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D technical outlook is red (RSI = 36.027, MACD = -9.900, ADX = 36.923) signifying considerable upside potential and the rebound on the 30.00 oversold RSI level indicates the reversing momentum. We expect an immediate rally as part of the new bullish leg that will target the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 585.00).
Prior idea:
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Netflix - Come in...the water is fineWe dived below the Center-Line.
This is the time for a short, not when it's down at the Lower Medianline Parallel. Because there are lurking Creatures you don't want to meet.
My stop would be above the CL test high.
Keep in mind that earnings are coming out soon. So mybe give yourself time and trade it with an Options Strategy?
Gone for a swim...the water is fine §8-)
Netflix's Bullish Trend Ending: Traders, Prepare for Downtrend!Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on Netflix
In our close examination of NFLX, the streaming titan, a compelling narrative unfolds. Initially, a double-top pattern emerged between July 2020 and January 2022, followed by a significant breakout from the neckline. This breakout confirmed a bearish reversal, resulting in a remarkable 70% decline from its peak.
However, the plot deepens. NFLX recently revisited its double-top pattern's neckline while concurrently crafting a channel chart pattern. Adding to the intrigue, NFLX struggled to regain its former heights and descended below both the lower trendline and the dynamic support line, a classic sign of a sustained bearish trajectory.
Not to be overlooked, the Stochastic indicator chimed in with a bearish divergence, providing further validation for the impending downward movement.
Our target price? Set conservatively at under $300.
Traders, prepare for a captivating journey ahead!
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on NASDAQ:NFLX ."
NETFLIX Is the streaming Giant a buy again?Netflix (NFLX) had a great run since our March 23 long (see chart below) and gave us more than +51% return in 4 months:
The long-term pattern remains a Bullish Megaphone and right now the price sits on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been unbroken since November 10 2022. On top of that, the 1D RSI is oversold on the 30.00 Support. Last time it was this low (March 10), the Megaphone priced a Higher Low bottom. As you realize, along with the 0.382 Fibonacci, we currently sit on a quadruple level Support Cluster.
Based on the 93 candle (roughly 135 days) rule within this Megaphone, which suggests that at the end of the 93 candle count, NFLX will either be near a High or a Low, we still have around 2 months to call a bottom. As a result, if the 1D MA200 and Megaphone break, we can see a slow descend along the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and then pick up a reversal.
Either way, the once mighty streaming giant is entering a new long-term Buy Zone. Our target is the 0.786 Fibonacci extension ($587.50) even though we wil most likely see the Megaphone peak higher by Q2 2024.
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NetFlix - Come in, the Water is fine!Below the Lower-Medianline-Parallel, the Water is fine!
,..you think?
Maybe, but there's a Shark waiting for you.
He's Name is "FOMO"!
If you waited for a retest of the L-MLH, then you wasted your time. Here is how you trade a open/close below the L-MLH:
- short immediately with a money Stop/Loss
or
- wait for a re-test of the L-MLH, and short from there on obvious weakness. Put your Stop behind the re-test high.
But don't jump in the mouth of the "FOMO" Shark!
I added the Members material on my website.
Check it out, it's free for all, but you must be a brave Trader §8-)