Get started

Netflixsetup

NFLX in a channel; good swing trade setupHello my fellow traders and devoted padawans. One of my followers asked me to analyze NFLX, so here it is. Although NFLX is a great stock it is going to have fierce competition from Disney+ so if you are a long term investor, keep that in sight. But we are here to talk about what's happening right now on the chart. As you can see, NFLX has been rangebound for quite sometime now. This can be seen as a healthy consolidation before a push up but it also means we can take advantage of the swings within the channel to make an extra buck while we wait for a move up (if that happens). I am not in NFLX but after looking at the chart I may jump in for a quick swing trade here and there if the opportunity presents itself. CHANNEL So let's talk about how you can take advantage of the channel, which in my opinion is one of the easiest "patterns" (not really a pattern but you get it) to trade because it is in a defined range. Now if you look at the chart you will see that the channel has different levels of support and resistance. That is fine because channels can have sub-channels, which is perfectly normal. The issue with sub-channels is that it may be difficult to know whether the price will move to the support/resistance of the outer channels or if it is going to stay contained within the inner channels. That is why we need other indicators to give us clear signals, a specific one in this case: the Stochastic oscillator. STOCHASTIC TO THE RESCUE The Stochastic is a very good oscillator to use in rangebound markets because when combined with other metrics, patterns, and indicators, it can give us clear buy and sell signals. Here I am using it in combination with the channels support and resistance only because that is enough for our scenario. Sell signal In this chart I made it very easy for you to see that when the price moves up to the resistance (any of them) and the Stoch is in overbought conditions (above 80 or close to it if we are lenient, which works for our scenario) and crossed bearish (blue line below red) the price fell. That crossover of the Stoch lines would be your sell signal (look at the lines and circles). Buy signal Likewise, when the price touches the support (any of the support levels) and Stochastic is in oversold conditions (below 20 or around 20) and the Stochastic lines cross bullish (blue over red) the price moves up. That bullish crossover would be your buy signal. No trading zone If there are crossovers of the Stohastic but the price is not reacting to support or resistance, hold off and wait for a better buy/sell signal. Don't overtrade. MOVING AVERAGES Finally, you can see that the 14,21, and 50 emas are forming a big ema confluence, which is normal and expected in rangebound markets. You can also see that they become resistance and support to the price, depending on where the price is. If the price is squeezed between support/resistance and the emas, it may be safe to wait for a break above or below the emas even if the Stoch is giving a buy signal and price is on support/resistance. Look at previous price action and use your diligence. CONCLUSION This pattern is very easy to trade if you are discipline and don't overtrade but it is not going to last forever so you need to monitor that the price stays within the channel and that other indicators don't start showing bullish or bearish sentiment, which could signal the pattern is about to be broken. In this chart I didn't add other indicators because they are supporting the rangebound move, but on your own chart it is worth adding other indicators to help you identify if/when the pattern is broken and the stock starts trending up or down. Another long analysis my dear chart warriors but this is a lesson you will like to take with you for other trades. It is easy and simple and carries minimal risks because you can exit as soon as the pattern is broken. Share the love: If you get anything out of this TA, please like the chart so it moves up and others can benefit from my work. A simple click on the like button goes a long ways. Follow for more: I have an outstanding winning rate (check my other charts). If you want the best entry/exits just follow me, you won't regret. Thanks a lot! ***The ideas shared here are my opinion, not financial advise to place trades. Please do your own research before buying/selling stocks***
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Safe_Trades
4
How I've traded Netflix this year. Morning traders. I just wanted to share how I've traded Netflix this year with the script I am using and the results I've gotten. Traded netflix only on an account with a well known CFD provider. £200 deposited and 76% gains on investments since March risking 1% per trade. This information is all provided by the back test data screen shot at bottom of the screen. As you will see from the idea screen I have provided details of how the script prompts me when to enter the market. I simply enter the market set my stop loss and take profit targets and let the trade play out. That easy! All the back test data backs the strategy up and takes away all the emotion of trading. Something we all struggle with as traders. Once the trade has played out I simply wait for the next signal alert and go again. This particular example is working the H1 and the example is taken from back in June and July. Currently I am in a live long position on this chart as we speak. So we will see how that plays out. For any more information on the script I am using please message me.
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by RichScott
Netflix ahead of Q3: Key levels to watchNETFLIX, H4 & Daily Netflix's third Quarter earnings for 2018 will be reported after the US Market close on October 16.  The consensus recommendation for the company is "strong buy", corresponding to the majority of the consensus recommendation for the Online Services peer group , as 21 out of 32 Analyst Firms recommending "buy" or "Strong buy" and 9 suggest remaining on hold, while just 2 Analyst firms propose the "Sell" possibility. According to Zacks Investment Research, the internet video service is expected to have $0.68 in earnings per share during the third Quarter of 2018, which represents an extraordinary yearly change of 235.35%, since the reported EPS for the fiscal Quarter ending September 2017 was $0.29. Focus should also turn on revenues number which is expected to be around $3.99 billion, from the $3.91 billion reported the previous quarter. Figure 1: Reprinted from Netflix, Inc. Analyst Forecasts Earnings Growth, retrieved from www.nasdaq.com The consensus recommendation, similarly to economic data forecasts, has a significant effect on the near term stock price, as it represents a company’s wealth picture. Hence on every earning report, stock price is highly influenced by the comparison between the outcome and the expectations. The market tends to react positively if the outcome comes better or at least in line with forecast, while the price moves lower if the reported earnings miss expectations. At this stage, we have to point out that since September 2017, the company’s earnings missed expectations only once and positively surprised twice, while they remained unchanged just once. Despite in line or missed earnings expectations, Netflix stock price was seen continuously increasing until it reached $423.00 high in June 2018. The constant incline was affected by the increase of revenue number, along with the sales estimates as well. The fall since the earnings report release for the fiscal Quarter ending June 2018 was driven by the miss on sales and revenue valuations, despite the upbeat earnings. Therefore, stock market price could also be affected by subscriptions growth or revenue outcome as well. More precisely, Netflix reported upbeat earnings per share up to $0.85 (vs $0.80)  for its second Quarter, while revenue came in less than expected at $3.91 billion (vs $3.94 anticipated based on Thomson Reuters estimates) and the company’s total subscribers growth domestically & internationally  also fell below projections for the first time in five Quarters. This caused the price to drop by nearly $113.00, to $310.00 level. Figure 2: Revenue and Earnings per Share. Reprinted from Netflix Inc. Financial Highlights, retrieved from www.reuters.com . After the overall defeat in the second Quarter, the company’s management should have followed a more conservative method for third Quarter estimations regarding subscriber additions. If the company achieved accuracy with its forecast, then a positive earnings outcome without any negative surprises on revenue and subscriptions could attract many bulls back into the market.  After the sharp drop by 18.3% down, the past 2 weeks, a decisive turn above $351.30, could turn the attention to the $400.00 handle. The $351.30 reflects the confluence of 100-day EMA but importantly the 50% return of the losses seen in October which is a level of importance. Hence if price action manages to sustain a move above $351.00- $354.00 area (50-day SMA), is likely to turn to a bullish outlook again. For now, the sell-off sentiment continues to push stock price lower, amid a combination of events such as the ongoing China-US trade friction, but mainly due to the worries over the uptrend in rates, something that is boosting the US treasury bond yields higher and gradually weakening the demand for equities. Hence the higher the yields the lower the stocks, especially “risky equities” such as tech stocks, i.e. Netflix as well. The investor’s earning season anticipation also undermines stock demand. Contrarily, the extension lower for Netflix price, prior to the earnings announcement or even disappointing earnings outcome, could find immediate Support at the $308.00 – $310.00 area, which is the 5-month bottom and 50-week EMA. A break of this area however is crucial as it is a “free fall” from that level downwards. Support could possibly occur around April’s prices, at the $272.00 – $280.00 area, which coincides with the 150.0% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the decline from $386.46 peak. The 161.8% Fib. level coexists with the latest weekly low fractal. Technically, the medium term outlook for the corporation’s shares remains bearish, with trading activity taking place below 50-100 and 200- day moving averages, while momentum indicators comply with this as well. RSI is at 31 and falling, suggesting that there is further space to the downside. MACD lines crossed below neutral zone and signal line, while they are increasing to the downside, suggesting the potential rise of negative momentum. However as long as the floor at $308.00 - $310.00 area holds, then the complete turn to a bearish outlook cannot be confirmed. Click HERE to read the full article: analysis.hotforex.com Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by HotForex