NETFLIX Earnings is setting it up for $840.Netflix (NFLX) is already one of the big winners of the earnings season as it announced Q3 results that exceeded expectations and saw the price up by more than +11.00% on Friday. Even technically that is a big win as the rebound came from a Thursday test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the first in 2 months (since August 14).
The stock has been trading within a Channel Up for a whole year (since the October 18 2023 Low) and now has the perfect fundamental excuse to aim higher. The 1D RSI shows a similar pattern so all previous bottoms with the Channel Up (Aug 05 2024, April 22 2024, January 17 2024, October 18 2023) so either a 3.0 Fibonacci extension or a +25% rise is expected.
This time both happen to be just over $840.00, so we can claim that this is a reasonable target to aim for during this Bullish Leg.
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Netflixsignals
NETFLIX starting the 2nd bullish leg of its expansion phase.Netflix (NFLX) has been consolidating above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the August 20 High and is on the exact same level where during all previous Bullish Legs of the 2-year Channel Up, it ended the consolidation and moved to the 2nd rally of the expansion phase.
This is also evident on the 1D RSI, which is about to start a Channel Down that in previous Legs it moved parallel with the price's 2nd rally. Our Target is $900.00 representing a +70.48% rise from April's low, which is the smallest rally recorded within the 2-year Channel Up, thus the more realistic target.
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NETFLIX Bullish break-out eyeing $725.00Netflix (NFLX) has established trading above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), turning it into a Support following the rebound since May 01. With the long-term pattern since June 14 2022 being a Channel Up, similar bullish break-outs above the 1D MA50 (blue circles) have been the start of Bullish Legs.
Even the 1D RSI has been very consistent at identifying bottoms. The last two Bullish Legs topped after the price hit the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we remain bullish on NFLX, targeting $725.0 (the 1.786 Fibonacci).
Flashback to our previous idea:
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NETFLIX Last pull-back possible before $750Netflix (NFLX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up on the logarithmic scale for the past 20 months. The trend is very aggressive to the upside and since the first Bullish Leg made a Higher High on February 03 2022 on a +130.30% rise, we do expect a similar % rally that would technically target a little below $800, so aiming at $750 would be a fair price.
Until then however, the Channel Up structure suggests that the stock has entered the Volatility Phase which during the previous Bullish Leg took place right before the Peak. As a result, a last pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) would also be fair. Technically it could seek the -0.236 Fibonacci extension ($550) from the Take-off Phase's High.
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NETFLIX Correction starting. How low can it go?Netflix (NFLX) has gone a long way since our November 28 2023 buy signal (see chart below) that reached our $580 Target, giving more than +20% return:
As the price has been consolidating for practically 2 weeks, it is time to update our outlook for medium as well as long-term investors. The long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern that started on the July 13 2022 Low, is intact and the stock continues to respect its Support and Resistance levels.
The current consolidation is coming off an overbought 1D RSI peak at 83.00, which has since corrected, while the price was consolidating, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. We have previously seen the same kind of overbought RSI Bearish Divergence on the July 19 2023 and February 03 2023 peaks, both Higher Highs on the Bullish Megaphone.
As a result, we expect a correction of around 4 weeks and being on a consolidation suggests that it is still early to enter. The 1st Support level is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the October 27 2023 bounce, but we are aiming for the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as it has been touched during both 2023 correction waves. Our Target is at $485, but we will book the profit earlier if the 1D RSI hits the 30.00 oversold limit first.
The Sine Waves can be used as an extra decision making indicator here. As you can see they fairly match the Peaks and Lows of the stock price, so if the price approaches the Sine Bottom March 20 and hasn't rebounded yet, we will close the shorts and buy long-term regardless.
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NETFLIX Will the stream giant correct after the Earnings?Netflix (NFLX) is reporting Earnings today and what we see from the past 4 weeks that has been unable to make new Highs, it might be pricing a peak. That peak might be a technical Higher High formation on the 1.5 year Channel Up, which is the Earnings disappoint, can initiate a medium-term correction towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) Support Zone.
The technical confirmation for a sell will most likely be a 1W candle closing below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which has been the standard support of uptrends within the Channel Up. In addition to that, we will be expecting to see the 1W MACD form a Bearish Cross. On that signal, we will target 425.00.
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NETFLIX Expect this rally to be extended.Almost a month ago (October 31) we gave a strong buy signal (chart below) on Netflix (NFLX) with the price reacting immediately having entered a non-stop rise:
Due to the sheer aggression of the current bullish leg of the Megaphone as compared to its previous ones though, we have to downgrade our medium-term target to $580, which will make a perfect +69.30% rise from the bottom as the July 18 High. Their RSI patterns are quite similar, though obvious that the current is more aggressive, hence will correct equally aggressively at some point, probably early-mid January 2024.
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NETFLIX Can it realistically reach $600 in this environment?Netflix (NFLX) has established itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the aggressive price jump of October 19 on its bullish earnings. Still, the price is failing to break above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the blue Channel Down and technically the longer it fails to do so, the higher the chances become of a rejection. Until that happens, we can see that during similar 1D MA50 consolidations after price jumps in the recent past, Netflix rallied more. Now it has the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) as its long-term Support, hence a potential new rally can be even stronger.
The previous 3 medium-term rallies have hit (or marginally missed) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so that is our target in case the price breaks above the top of the Channel Down. $600 is technically fair as it is on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Bullish Megaphone. Time-wise, this target is achievable by January 2024 as this is what the Sine Waves suggest. As you can see all 3 previous Higher Highs have been within the peak spectrum of the Sine Wave.
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NETFLIX Is the streaming Giant a buy again?Netflix (NFLX) had a great run since our March 23 long (see chart below) and gave us more than +51% return in 4 months:
The long-term pattern remains a Bullish Megaphone and right now the price sits on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been unbroken since November 10 2022. On top of that, the 1D RSI is oversold on the 30.00 Support. Last time it was this low (March 10), the Megaphone priced a Higher Low bottom. As you realize, along with the 0.382 Fibonacci, we currently sit on a quadruple level Support Cluster.
Based on the 93 candle (roughly 135 days) rule within this Megaphone, which suggests that at the end of the 93 candle count, NFLX will either be near a High or a Low, we still have around 2 months to call a bottom. As a result, if the 1D MA200 and Megaphone break, we can see a slow descend along the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and then pick up a reversal.
Either way, the once mighty streaming giant is entering a new long-term Buy Zone. Our target is the 0.786 Fibonacci extension ($587.50) even though we wil most likely see the Megaphone peak higher by Q2 2024.
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NETFLIX This price jump will be huge and can reach $490.Netflix (NFLX) has gone a long way since we called the exact bottom back on our April analysis:
Since then, the stock has formed a well structured Bullish Megaphone pattern, which is currently rising after almost touching its bottom. The 1D MA50 is the short-term Resistance and the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) the long-term. A break above it can see NFLX's biggest swing since the recovery that has the capacity to extend as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and make a Megaphone Higher High at $490.00.
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NETFLIX 1D Golden Cross historically shows fast recovery.Netflix (NFLX) completed last week the Golden Cross pattern on the 1D time-frame, which is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). By doing so it closed yesterday above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since January 06 2022, practically when its Bear Market was confirmed.
Since it started trading, NFLX has had a 1D Golden Cross pattern while below the 1W MA50 another three times (October 07 2016, December 17 2012 and June 02 2005). On all cases, the price recovered at least the 0.786 Fibonacci, very fast. During 2016/17 it recovered the previous High in just 94 days since the 1D Golden Cross formation. In 2012/13 it recovered the previous high in 264 days, while in 2004/05 it recovered the 0.786 Fib in 200 days.
The worst case scenario of 2004/05 would have Netflix hit $511 by June 08 2023. Do you agree? Which of the 3 scenarios do you think is more likely to happen?
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NETFLIX gives a confirmed MEGA BUY signalWe've been bullish on Netflix (NFLX) since early Summer after the price held the 1M MA200 (yellow trend-line), which as we noted on our April 21 analysis, is the historical Support:
Even though the drop didn't complete the expected -80% drop, it did come close enough (-76.50%) and as you see the rebound since the mid May bottom has been massive already (+87%). The price is now close to hitting the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the first week of January.
The current analysis is on the 1W time-frame and illustrates NFLX's long-term price action since it's first trading day. Though the scale is logarithmic, we can fit the price action within a Channel Up. The recent May bottom was exactly on the Channel's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) just like the previous Higher Low in late July 2012.
The catalyst that is making us claim that Netflix formed a bottom and is giving a confirmed long-term buy signal is the fact that the price continues to rise even after the formation of the Death Cross (bearish signal technically), which is when the 1W MA50 crosses below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). In all (2) previous occurrences (July 2012, April 2005), the stock price had already formed its bottom and was at the start of a very aggressive rally towards its previous All Time High. The current Death Cross was formed in August (2022) and the +87% already shows how this is similar to past bottoms.
There is a Lower Highs trend-line involved (dotted line) which during the past two rallies, was the initial target. In the 00s the price took a while before making a new All Time High while in the early 2010s it took just a few months after touching the (dotted) Lower Highs trend-line. As a long-term target, an investor could use the Multiple 3 (red trend-line), from the Fib MAs indicator.
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NETFLIX +15% near the 1D MA200 for the first time since January!Netflix (NFLX) had its highest daily opening in over one year, rising so far +15.21% form a 240.86 close yesterday to a 277.50 intra day peak. This is of course a fundamental move due to the big earnings surprise yesterday (3.1 EPS against a 2.18 forecast). Technically, this brings the price just below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been untouched since January 05 2022!
A break above it has to be backed-up by new fundamentals though as there is a strong Resistance Cluster formed by both the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up that started in mid-May. If that rejection occurs, then buying again on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) would be the most optimal low risk strategy, targeting just below the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 330.00. Further long-term buys can be taken, in our view, only above the 0.618 Fib which is the top of the High Volatility Zone of January - April 2022.
P.S. Check our previous analysis on Netflix in an attempt to price a good long-term buy. Has been working out very well so far:
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NETFLIX When bubbles pop. The bottom isn't in yet.Netfilx (NFLX) is having a historic weekly selling pressure after the negative quarterly report, which showed a loss of 200k subscribers, putting a stop to a growth for the first time in 10 years.
This chart on the 1W time-frame shows how the NFLX bubble popped in mid January 2022. The Jan 18 1W candle broke both below the parabolic growth curve (black) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) in the same week. That was the confirmation of the start of a Bear Cycle. So far the stock is on an almost -70% correction from the November 2021 All Time High (ATH) but this is by no means the bottom.
Since the 1W MA200 broke, which was a trend-line supporting the bubble since January 2013, we have to go to the monthly (1M) time-frame to look for the next Support. That is the 1M MA200 (red trend-line) which is currently at $137.82. If that is reached before June, that would represent a -80% correction from the top, which is typical for Bear Market bottoms. The 1W RSI is at the lowest level historically since Netflix started first trading.
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