EURUSD-Daily Chart Trade Ideas and Analysis Jan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Chart Analysis
Current Possible Trade:
Long: If Price stay around the doji candle and makes more market structure than I would take for confirmation entry long before I enter the trade.
A. This would increase the probability of the trade
Short Trades :
I would wait for price to move down to the c.1 demand zone and look to entry on the lower timeframes
Daily Chart Analysis:
1. Price is currently in between the weekly high strong (protected) swing range. Near the equilibrium of the Daily swing range.
2. During NFP on Friday Jan 5 price swept the strong lows and is currently giving us a long legged doji candle.
A. From my backtest experience price will likely range a bit after this candle formation.
Neural
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an-va.com
AI's EUR/USD Pattern & Scalping Range, Local European SentimentAI's EUR/USD Falling Channel & Breakout Odds with Scalping Range
D ear Valued Investors,
Introduction
I would like to provide you with an update on the trading bots' activity. They have been diligently following a short position initiated at 1.101, see the idea above the chart, and I am pleased to inform you that the trade has been successful, as indicated by the success of the forecast on the left side of the chart.
News Trading - Natural Language Processing Results
- The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in July, which could strengthen the euro. The ECB has been signaling for months that it will need to raise rates to combat inflation, and the latest data suggests that inflation is still running high in the eurozone. A rate hike would make the euro more attractive to investors compared to the dollar, which is currently yielding very little.
- The eurozone economy is showing signs of resilience. The eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023, and the latest data suggests that growth is continuing in the second quarter. This suggests that the eurozone economy is more robust than many economists had expected, which could support the euro in the near term.
- The risk of a recession in the United States is increasing. The US economy is facing a number of headwinds, including high inflation, rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine. These factors could lead to a recession in the US, which would likely weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro.
Personal Comment
I live in the EU, and as a consumer, I don't see any sign of recession here. To me, it seems that the US economy bears the bigger weight in the news of the war are about. Objectively, the US economy might be stronger, but the prices don't necessarily reflect the current power. Investors try to speculate which economy will suffer harder and pool value into those that seem resilience. I believe in the resilience of the EU economy, and I experience the local sentiment. While prices are rising, people don't FUD yet. Many seek opportunities to make a profit that can cover the inflation costs. EUR has seemed more resilient so far to the difficulties than the other European currencies. If you live in the EU, you know that many countries still have their national currencies (not EUR), but you can pay with EUR everywhere here. So, it makes sense that many sell their national currencies to EUR. EUR is more resilient, and they can pay with it as smoothly as with their national currencies.
Pattern Recognition AI's Results
Through my pattern recognition algorithms, I have identified a falling channel pattern on the chart. This pattern is characterized by purple trendlines. Despite its bearish implications, the price broke above this pattern on December 11th, suggesting potential bullish momentum.
Scalping Possibilities
Currently, the EUR/USD is in a consolidation phase, trading between the support level at 1.072 and the resistance level at 1.082. These levels align with the EMA 100, and the support line is denoted by the color green, while the resistance line is represented by red. Shorting opportunities may arise from resistance to support.
Neural Network's Prediction
Based on the current technical indicators, I anticipate a scenario in which the EUR/USD gains momentum from the support level and breaks out above the channel. This potential trajectory is depicted by the white lines. In the event of a successful breakout, my neural networks suggest target prices of 1.095 or even 1.100.
Technical Indicators
The fluctuating volume below the channel indicates increasing volatility. Noteworthy bullish indications include the price consolidating above EMA 20, the RSI crossover below on the RSI indicator, and the strong uptrend of MACD since December 7th.
Disclaimer:
I would like to emphasize that this communication does not constitute investment advice. I strongly urge you to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. It is essential to recognize that your funds are your responsibility, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Sincerely,
Ely
Stages of a Downtrend: Insights from AI AnalysisDear Respected Members of the TradingView Community,
I start with some straightforward insights. I've executed significant crypto sales this month. However, my decision was not because of any pre-established forecasts. The motivation behind my decision to part with cryptocurrencies like BTC was primarily due to liquidity challenges. I found it increasingly difficult to execute orders without impacting the market by moving prices, widening spreads, or settling for unfavorable market orders. Often, I had to exercise more patience than desired while waiting for the fulfillment of my limit orders. Eventually, when suitable over-the-counter (OTC) opportunities presented themselves, I decided to divest from these challenging assets. It's important to note that this decision was independent of price predictions.
Y ou can consider various factors beyond price movement for an investment choice. Factors such as trading volume, liquidity, spreads, and transaction fees can add value to your decision-making process. The focus points of this discussion are price forecasts, where trading volume is one of the influential variables.
F or those of you who have been tracking the trading volume candles from December 20, 2020, to the present, you may have observed a consistent decline in trading volume. Deep Neural Networks (DNN) tend to associate this declining volume with a waning interest in BTC-USD. While the overall trend for BTC has been bullish since November 14, 2022, DNN suggests that this rising trend could be a retracement within a broader bearish development that began on November 15, 2021. The significance of understanding the trend lies in assessing the risk-reward ratio. Generally, positions aligned with the prevailing trend offer a more favorable risk-reward ratio. An adaptive DNN model can add more than programmed indicators as it can adapt to changing market conditions and provide certainty metrics regarding potential trends.
A s per my adaptive DNN analysis, there is a 70% probability that the bearish trend will persist, compared to a 30% probability for a bullish trend. However, market dynamics are influenced by multiple trends, each exerting varying degrees of impact at different times. Fuzzy Logic Trading (FLT) reveals that factors associated with the bearish trend currently hold a 60% influence on BTC-USD, with bullish parameters contributing 40%. Probabilities offer insights into potential future scenarios, while membership degrees provide a more nuanced perspective on the actual forces at play within a given scenario.
A t present, the price of Bitcoin is approaching a juncture defined by multiple trendlines that may serve as resistance levels. One of these resistance lines previously served as a support level for local bottoms on January 2, 2023, March 13, 2023, and June 12, 2023. However, since Bitcoin breached this support line, it may have transitioned into a resistance line. It is just one example of a trendline that could act as a barrier, given the broader horizontal resistance zone extending between $38,000 and $32,000.
A nother notable resistance line within this zone is the trendline connecting the peaks of the bullish retracement tail on April 10, 2023, July 3, 2023, and the present. These examples illustrate the potential resistance trendlines, with the entire zone representing a supply margin where additional barriers may exist. It's worth noting that bullish trends can possess the strength to break through resistance trendlines or zones, transforming them into support trendlines and demand zones.
W hile an AI-driven analysis suggests a 30% probability of a continuing bullish trend, the market exhibits a 40% bullish influence from external factors such as news and prominent opinions, as determined by my Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithm and mathematical tools from FLT. Should the BTC price establish a demand zone and initiate an upward trajectory from the support trendlines, the market could witness new local highs, potentially surmounting at least one of the aforementioned resistance trendlines within the supply zone. While this scenario does not guarantee a parabolic surge, it remains a possibility.
O n one hand, optimistic investor sentiment could potentially transform even the sharply rising resistance trendline into a support level, as indicated by the blue forecast in the chart. On the other hand, a 70% probability of a continuing bearish trend, as suggested by dynamic DNN, and a 60% bearish influence per FLT, even in the presence of a bullish trend, implies a degree of caution.
I n Finance, the path to profit is often a winding road, with ups and downs that can confound even the most seasoned investors. While many market participants tend to focus on bullish scenarios, it's essential to understand the various stages of a downtrend. Let's explore these phases and gain some insights from artificial intelligence. Every significant downtrend begins with a subtle sign – a warning of what's to come. Unfortunately, this early signal is soft while the bullish sentiment prevails. This initial warning is crucial for astute investors who pay attention to the nuances of the market. As the uptrend falters and inevitably fails, it becomes evident that the market is in a state of decline. This point often lures individuals into considering an all-in strategy, driven by the conviction that "It always goes back up." This misguided belief can lead to significant losses. Following the decline, there's typically a rally, which sometimes recovers a significant percentage from the previous drop. This rally can be deceptive, luring investors believing that a new bullish trend is underway. However, it's crucial to exercise caution and not be swayed solely by short-term gains. Tragically, the anticipated bullish trend often turns out to be a trap, leading to a prolonged and persistent downtrend. This phase can be particularly challenging for investors who have been misled by the allure of the initial rally.
M oreover, artificial intelligence has made significant strides in the field of market analysis. By employing Dimensionality Reduction (DR) techniques, AI can detect potential bearish butterfly patterns on full-timeframe BTC charts available through pricing engines. Additionally, AI has identified the presence of a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern in the yearly timeframe of 2023. It's important to bear in mind that patterns are essentially estimations of probabilities and potential volatility structures. Any pattern can break in either an upward or downward direction, signaling either a bullish or bearish scenario, respectively.
E xamining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the spread between the price and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 20 reveals that they currently fall within a historically and statistically oversold range. Additionally, there is a lack of confirmation for breaching any of the aforementioned resistance lines, let alone the supply zone itself.
I n summary, a scalping strategy within the supply zone from the upper trendline to the lower boundary, as depicted in the short position on the chart, could be considered. If the bearish trend persists, other strategies may extend this short position beyond the resistance zone, potentially reaching the EMA 200 at around $25,000, where Bitcoin could encounter an underlying demand zone and various support trendlines.
I t's essential to remember that trading decisions should not be solely based on price forecasts. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by various factors, and price is just one of them. This is not intended as investment advice. I encourage you to conduct your research and take full responsibility for your funds. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
I n conclusion, understanding the stages of a downtrend is vital for any investor seeking to navigate the complexities of financial markets. Additionally, the integration of AI analysis can provide valuable insights, enhancing our ability to make informed decisions in the ever-evolving world of finance. Remember that no prediction is foolproof, and prudent risk management remains essential in the world of investment.
Warm regards,
Ely
Development Log for Neural Network PrototypeThe idea, at the core:
Port a limited RNN/LSTM Neural Network model from Python with a reduced training set and dimension size for layers to demonstrate that a fully functional (even if limited) Neural Net can work in Pine.
Limited model + having the python code on hand = Able to test and verify components in Pine at every step, in theory
The model/script I'm attempting to implement a limited subset of is detailed here:
iamtrask.github.io
A dataset in binary is required, but binary does not exist in pinescript, thus:
To do this, decimal to binary and binary to decimal functions are required. This didn't exist previously - I've written a script to accomplish just that:
Originally, this was going to have a input_dim of 2, hidden_dim of 16, but I've changed the hidden_dim to 8 (binary dimensions from 8 to 5) to reduce the dataset range to max 32 while I figure out to implement working pseudo-arrays and state updates. I've looked at RicardoSantos's scripts for Markov and Pseudoarrays, and will be using them as a reference going forward.
I've verified the output of the Sigmoid function and 1st derivative of the Sigmoid function in Python for values of (-1,0,0.5,1 ). I've yet to publish the Sigmoid script pending approval from TV moderators about including python code that is commented out at the bottom to verify the results of that script.
What I'm trying to do here with training dataset generation was unsuccessful, for multiple reasons:
Lack of formal array constructs in pine
Psuedorandom Number generator limitations
Manual state weighting and updating as per RicardoSantos's Function Markov Process is required:
What's being plotted for are the first three layers, but without the full range of the input_dimensions, hidden_dimensions:
syn_0 (blue)
syn_1 (green)
syn_h (red)
While there's more than a few technical hurdles to overcome (i.e. potential pine issues from max variables to runtime/compile limits, no real arrays, functions to do state updates RichardoSantos Markov Function style, etc), I'm fairly confident a limited working model should be possible to create in Pine.
Neural Network Analysis 2009-2018 USDTRY Next Week Prediction01-Jan-2009 - 23-Oct-2018 Daily Close price data neural network analysis(Nonlinear autoregressive - NAR 1-2 delays, 10 neurons- 1 hidden layer, Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation)
5.7420 23.10.2018
5.8501 24.10.2018
5.9547 25.10.2018
6.0453 26.10.2018
6.1165 27.10.2018
6.1667 28.10.2018
6.1978 29.10.2018
6.2138 30.10.2018
6.2195 31.10.2018
USOILTough one
One day at a time they say or hr or 15 Mins
But if Breaks Sups or Res Higher Probability they will Hit Targeto's thats if i was an Algorythm that is
Nice Gap to fill on the 4 hr shows up better
Is in a Small Triangle thingimy bob 1/2 way in between after Crude Oil Supplies better than expected (Over suppied now are we, last week we were under, make ya mind up bro)
Always remember what would we do without oil
We'd be, not good !
And Arabs are greedy Phuckers. they want it at $145 were it once was and then say "Oh it's nothing to do with us, we didn't do it"
I don't trust anyone : )
Currency Metre still heavy on the negative 82%
macro view unclearPast week usd index broke three major resistance and when everything seems to be great(as we are in short position in our group) then boom we saw a massive reversal of usd index,and due to that silver and gold make there strong bullish move,due to involvement of big volume in this scenario we saw such a strong upward move in both of the precious metals,
macro and longer term picture-In short term there is quite a uncertainty in both of the precious metals but if gold makes a bearish move again with a volatile manner then it will find support for instance from 1300 its psychologically important level then it can rally up again and can retrace to our current or even 1350 level,again its a possibility as right now our bias is neutral,second possibility which have a high chance that it can turn out to be true in a matter of weeks you can see prices of gold climbs up to 1350 level based on triangle apex reversal,overall short terms picture seems quite confusing but over a longer term we can see many factors contributing towards a massive decline in gold prices,but right now we want to see more clear signs or confirmation before we open any position in our portfolio,we will open long/short position once everything will be clear,
Things to consider-
-gold almost touched 1300 level and reversed back
-reversal accompanied by big volume and cyclical turning point
-the USD Index broke below the previous February low
-our longer term view is bearish
- we took all the profits from the table instead of just limiting the exposure.
-no open short/long position in gold or silver
OIL: Record Keeping for Neural Network predictionOIL: Record Keeping for Neural Network prediction. goo.gl