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BTC - a last dip before new ATH ?The chart is in 3H cause couldn't zoom out more with lower timeframes :(( Pattern recognition at its best since the low of the 10 October, the price action is an extremely exact copy paste of march/April ATH : - A significant top, ATH for the first pattern and 3 months high for last week - first take profits, to 200MA 4H for the first pattern, to 100 MA 4H, 4 days ago - 2nd wave and 3rd wave higher than the second (almost hit ATH), the second wave has been made and BTC will probably make the third tomorrow in April this followed a correction. The pattern was bigger in April in % price and in time, so we should see shorter waves and lower price movements now. The conditions for this to continue as the last time and to see the last dip is to have a 3rd wave going around 69K : - if we break above 69k the pattern get invalidated - if we stay to long time above .618 fib extension at 66K3 the pattern get invalidated _________ Careful don't mind me, I'm neutral on this idea, and will not do anything before seeing a clear path. What changes now from April is that the halving was priced in way before so I'm seeing also lot of reasons why prices could just go above 69k and fly from now _________ Last but not least, BTC is for the moment following the orange path from my precedent idea, putting my target for fall 2025 at 240K, but this can change a lot Good Luck Cheers
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Investwine
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: Vega-Neutral Gold Play1. Introduction Gold is currently in an uptrend, presenting a potentially favorable environment for bullish traders. However, with implied volatility (IV) sitting around its mean, there’s uncertainty about whether IV will rise or fall in the near future. In such a scenario, traders may want to neutralize their vega exposure to avoid being negatively affected by changes in volatility. This article focuses on setting up a Call Ratio Spread, a bullish option strategy that provides positive delta while allowing for further adjustments that could keep vega neutral. This allows traders to capitalize on Gold’s potential uptrend while minimizing risk from changes in implied volatility. 2. Current Market Context The Gold futures market shows strong levels of support, which reinforces the bullish outlook. On the continuous Gold futures chart above GC1!, we observe key support levels at 2646.2 and 2627.2-2572.5. These levels could act as price floors, helping the uptrend continue if tested. Similarly, when examining the contract-specific below chart for GCQ2025, we identify supports at 2725.4 and 2729.5-2705.5. These levels provide solid ground for bullish trades on this specific contract, giving traders additional confidence in entering long positions. With implied volatility near its average (see the chart below), the market’s future volatility direction is unclear. Traders using options may choose adapt to this environment, ensuring that changes in volatility do not work against them. 3. Options Strategy: Call Ratio Spread To take advantage of Gold’s uptrend while neutralizing the risk from changes in volatility, we could employ a Call Ratio Spread. This strategy offers a bullish stance while maintaining vega neutrality, protecting the trader from swings in implied volatility. Setup: Buy 1x 2600 Call at 256.15 Sell 2x 3500 Calls at 23.32 Expiration: July 28, 2025 This configuration generates positive delta, meaning the strategy will benefit from upward price movement. At the same time, by selling two calls at a higher strike, we offset the vega exposure, ensuring that changes in volatility won’t dramatically affect the position. The strike prices and expiration selected help create a risk profile that works well in a bullish market. The maximum gain potential occurs if Gold continues to rise but stays below the higher 3500 strike, while the vega neutrality minimizes any volatility risks as the trade begins. Notice the breakeven point for this strategy is 2809.5, meaning the trade becomes profitable if Gold exceeds this level by expiration. 4. Why Use Micros? Traders looking for a more flexible approach can consider using Micro Gold Futures (symbol: MGC) instead of standard Gold futures contracts. Micro Gold Futures offer smaller contract sizes, which translate into lower margin requirements and a more precise way to control risk. This makes them an attractive alternative for traders with smaller accounts or those looking to scale into positions gradually. Additionally, Micro Gold Futures allow traders to fine-tune their exposure to Gold without the larger capital commitment required by standard contracts. For those implementing strategies like the Call Ratio Spread, Micros provide a cost-effective way to execute similar trades with a lower financial commitment. Contract Specs and Margin Requirements Gold Futures (symbol: GC) represent 100 troy ounces of gold, and their margin requirements can vary depending on market volatility and the broker. Typically, the initial margin requirement for a standard Gold futures contract is around $10,000 to $12,000, but this can fluctuate. For traders seeking more flexibility, Micro Gold Futures (symbol: MGC) offer a smaller contract size, representing 10 troy ounces of gold. The margin requirement for Micro Gold Futures is significantly lower, usually in the range of $1,000 to $1,200, making it a more accessible option for those with smaller accounts or those looking to fine-tune their exposure. 5. Risk Management As with any options trade, managing risk is essential. In the case of a Call Ratio Spread, the primary risk comes from the naked short calls at the 3500 strike price. If Gold rallies aggressively beyond 3500, the trader faces unlimited risk due to the uncovered nature of the short positions. To mitigate this risk, traders should consider using stop-loss orders or adjusting the trade if Gold's price approaches the 3500 level too quickly. Another way to eliminate the unlimited risk component to the upside would be to convert the Call Ratio Spread into a Call Butterfly by buying an additional call above the 3500 strike price, effectively capping the risk. This adjustment still allows for positive delta exposure while limiting potential losses if Gold moves sharply higher. Additionally, monitoring implied volatility is key. While the position starts with neutral vega exposure, this will change as the underlying asset price moves and time passes, especially as expiration approaches. The vega exposure can increase or decrease depending on these factors. If maintaining the vega-neutral characteristic is a priority, further adjustments—such as rolling options or modifying strike prices—could be made to keep the position aligned with the trader’s volatility outlook. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
WIF Stuck in a Wedge Pattern: Patience is Key For a BreakoutWIF is forming a very long but distinct WXYXZ wedge pattern, tightly confined within its channel. The structure is clear, with repeated ABC corrective waves confirming the pattern’s integrity. While the setup is clear, it suggests we may have to trade within the boundaries of the channel for now. For those looking to trade short-term, focus on the key levels within the wedge, but be prepared to wait patiently for the eventual breakout—it could take time, but when it happens, it should be significant.
by cryptechcapital
SOLANA - On the VERGE of CRITICAL TerritoryIt has been trading lower and lower and is now approaching the most important level in this region: $122. It's hard to predict what will happen once it reaches that level. Both bulls and bears have a strong case to try and take control of that area. As for me, I will remain neutral in this area unless: There is a clear retest of $122 followed by a reclaim of the EQLs at $134. There is a deviation below $122 with a strong reclaim. Alternatively: I might consider taking a significant short position below $122. This level is crucial for bulls if the price is to continue moving higher. September is becoming increasingly interesting.
by ZelfTrade
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