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#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18800. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 572 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 1229 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18650ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18800 or possibly even wait for 19000 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it. comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 / 19000 bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 18600 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 19000. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently. Invalidation is a daily close above 18700. outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18700 early next week. TP 18800 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18300 fast and below that is 18000.” → Last Sunday we traded 18638 and now we are at 18572. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18700 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either. short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions. Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 19000 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 19000, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19500 or 20000.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Trend change from not bearish to bearish in Nifty?I was not bearish in Nifty until Friday but the market has not failed to surprise me yet again. Important support (100 SMA) at 22000 was broken with conviction and India VIX is flying through the roof. These both points make me rethink my bullish thoughts I had and now I would either stay away from the market or wait for the right levels and sell on the rise but better option is to stay away from the market for a while and let the dust settle. #Educational purpose only
NSE:NIFTY
by travellingtradermumbai
BTC after huge upsite move need to steady out!Yesterday Idea went good , though short position as i said was risky and got stoplosed at entry, though longs are blowing up insame profit. We are now moving in high resistance, On higher Tf we are extremely bullish while on lower we are looking kinda bearish , we might get spike soon like 600 dolars 15m candle for 800 dolars. I dont know if it is good to short here but its friday, not much will happen tomorow or sunday soo, shorts here are safe. In my opinion we need to steady trend after night huge rise, soo we will stay at 45k-46k some time
by pangreen12
GME TRENDS AND PRICE TARGETS, WE LOVE MEMESIf you've been following GME with me, you bought at 12.5 and below last month. Sell target 1 was 16.9, we came close but lost a tiny bit on the first topside pump. We bought the dip around 14.02 and below, and we were looking for 18, 21, and 25 with small retracements in between. I'm not sure, but per indicators, it seems we might see the higher targets of 21 and 25 before we see the retracement targets of 10 and 8. Faster and steeper we go up, the faster and steeper we drop, so remember, the time to be flinging money in without much worry was under 12.5. Now, you'll want to be trimming profits and compounding. How much should you sell and when? Only you can make that decision. However, feel free to use some my price targets if you're struggling to set your own. If you're new to trading or my charts. We usually buy and sell on the major trends, and use the breakouts as a chance to compound profits, or simply wait for the right trade to present itself, whether bull or bear. Just because we are selling at these levels in a longer term trade doesn't mean there aren't chances to jump into shorter term trades. However, USE caution at these levels. If you're bearish on this stock, you want to see it wedge down, and if bullish you want the breakout to the topside. I tried to make this chart as simple as possible. Squeeze targets included, but be REAL, it's unlikely, and it will be fast up and fast down should it occur. However, bears need to be real as well and realize that some of those topside numbers are very possible. Options get a little wild around the 26 and 32 dollar marks I believe. You only wanna play with weekly options if you know how they move in relation to the price or you'll get killed from theta. Good luck!
NYSE:GME
by nicktussing77
6
Just an ideaJust an idea, you can see Xrp went for $0.1665 to $0.5000 Then snapped back to $0.0085 before ripping up to $3.50 Always watching this coin because we all see it’s huge pontential, with BTC making a pattern to drop and black rock trying to control the market, I imagine we could see a sharp push up to collect, followed by a heavy retracement down before take off. Currently sitting on the side waiting for confirmation of entry, but what we have seen in the past before Xrp takes off is a quick wick down then too the moon. Currently sitting around $0.55 we could see a break downward if it doesn’t hold, however if it does hold we could see a push up collecting before a sharp retracement before take off. Good luck and have fun with it
BINANCE:XRPUSD
by Ncard137
2
Uncertain EURUSD, but These Levels are likely ImportantUncertain EURUSD, but These Levels are likely Important Dear Esteemed Members, I know when I say the EUR can go up or down, doesn't seem to be useful, but I believe the outcome depends on resistance or support break and fundamental factors. As per the latest technical analysis updates, it is widely agreed that the EUR/USD exchange rate is currently experiencing a downtrend. Examination of the four-hour chart reveals that the pair remains below both the 50- and 100-hour exponential moving averages in a downward trajectory. The relative strength index (RSI) is also bearish, dipping below 40, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment. Immediate support is identified at the 1.0920 level (200-hour exponential moving average), followed by the 1.0880 level (lower boundary of the rising regression trend channel) and the 1.0850 level (Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise). Conversely, potential resistance levels for the EUR/USD are at the 1.0970 level (100-hour exponential moving average), the psychological and static level at 1.1000, and the 1.1050 level (midpoint of the rising channel). In addition to technical factors, fundamental influences shape the EUR/USD exchange rate in the coming days. Attention focuses on the upcoming United States December labor market report, encompassing non-farm payroll (NFP) changes, average hourly earnings growth, and the unemployment rate. Market expectations project a 170,000 increase in NFP, a decrease from the 199,000 recorded in November. A higher-than-expected NFP could bolster the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Conversely, a lower-than-expected NFP may weaken the US dollar and elevate the EUR/USD exchange rate. Kind Regards, Ely
by Elysian_Mind
USDCAD Approaching Significant ZoneUSDCAD has been Ranging in higher timeframes. On lower timeframes, a Bear market predominates. Price approaching Significant Zone: 1.30900 - 1.31775 Although zone was used previously as support, momentum indicates probable continuation passed this zone onto lower prices - unless proven otherwise by future price movements. Opinion is currently Neutral (no entry yet) with a Bearish bias . Looking for appropriate market structure at Zone for entry (shorts). Aggressively add to position if in profit, with appropriate risk managing and trading psychology. Avoid adding to position if negative.
by virtual_an0maly
EURUSD : The market is waiting for PCE data, the Fed's preferred According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP in the third quarter increased 5.2%, up from an estimate of 4.9%. Stronger GDP data boosted the USD. Expert Jeffrey Roach of LPL Financial, a financial company, said that inflation is trending down, consumers are still spending but at a slower pace, and the Fed can end the cycle of raising interest rates without causing harm. too much impact on the economy. Traders are currently predicting the Fed will lower interest rates in the first half of next year. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester supports a third pause in interest rate hikes at the December meeting, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes inflation is falling. Earlier this week, other Fed officials made similar comments. However, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin warned that he should keep the option of raising interest rates again if inflation rises again. The market is waiting for PCE data, the Fed's preferred interest rate measuring tool, with many predicting this index will decrease.
by TinaTradingGold
XAUUSD - FAKE RUPTURE OR WILL BULLS WIN THE FIGHT? SEE MY IDEAS The technical analysis for XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) is showing a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment at the moment. The summary from a technical analysis is neutral, with moving averages giving equal buy and sell signals (6 each). However, the technical indicators are leaning more towards sell (4) than buy (2), suggesting that there might be a slight bearish trend in the immediate term​​. For the upcoming week, there isn't a clear trend indicated from the information available. It's important to consider that gold prices can be influenced by many factors including economic data releases, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment. Investors and traders often look at gold as a safe-haven asset in times of market uncertainty, which can lead to price increases, whereas stronger economic indicators can lead to strengthening of the USD and a decrease in gold prices. It would be advisable to keep an eye on upcoming economic events and market news for a more accurate forecast. MY TWO IDEAS HERE THOUGHT THIS LINKS: drive.google.com drive.google.com
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BBSignTraders
Neutral on IBM. Looking more bearish. As you can see here we are at a demand zone. But, we are consolidating at this zone and that usually means we break through the zone. If we bounce off of the zone, I will look for it to retest the recent trendline that we have just broken. But, if we break through the zone, I will be looking for the stock to fall all the way down to the bottom Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. The P/E ratio is at 65 which is very high so I am leaning more bearish. Also, the market as a whole has an extreme fear index which could also signal a bearish ride for this stock. On the weekly chart, we were over-extended from the top Bollinger Band and have been red the last two weeks so I do look for this downtrend to continue. If we fall, this could be a money-making monster for a couple months out put and I feel we have more room to go down then up. My overall opinion is that we might go up in the short-term but the long term we could be headed for a landslide to the downside.
NYSE:IBM
by OptionsMastery
What's the next move ?The CMP(current market price) is at weekly resistance zone. Below scenarios can happen: 1. Bear :: If a daily candle closes below 82.5920, advisable not to enter the market as the triangle is about to converge leading to triangle breakout & also the Risk: Reward ratio would be small. 2. Bull :: If a weekly closes above 83.2850, this is a ascending triangle breakout. The target for the weekly breakout will be 86.7317. This target will take time to reach. Best advisable to add 1 or 2 lots in far out of the expiry(like 3 or 6 months far expiry after the breakout)
by the_paradox