BTC btc "arrowhead"neutral zone orange line based on past moving averages and current measurement up to november 1st 2024,. Purple lines represent arrowhead fibonacci of price above and below the standard average neutral between support and resistance based from all the way back to october 2024, one year prior. Not a lot of activity above 160%, main range of bitcoin remaining in 78% lower half and over 100% gains upper region.
Neutral
SOLANA - On the VERGE of CRITICAL TerritoryIt has been trading lower and lower and is now approaching the most important level in this region: $122.
It's hard to predict what will happen once it reaches that level. Both bulls and bears have a strong case to try and take control of that area.
As for me, I will remain neutral in this area unless:
There is a clear retest of $122 followed by a reclaim of the EQLs at $134.
There is a deviation below $122 with a strong reclaim.
Alternatively:
I might consider taking a significant short position below $122.
This level is crucial for bulls if the price is to continue moving higher. September is becoming increasingly interesting.
8.18.2024 Weekly Pre-Market Analysis S&PThis is my Weekly Pre-Market Analysis on the S&P>
Right now we are going to wait for market structure to form.
We saw lower highs and higher lows form on Friday after the last bullish move up. So we do not have a clear direction as to which way if may head.
We have a plan for a SHORT position as well as a plan for a LONG position.
We just need to watch the LOWS & HIGHS form on the 15 minute chart, before we even think of getting into a trade.
Russel 2000 - Consolidation into Q3
Hey Guys,
For this Index the Consolidation period has been there since the big Engulfing Candle on the Yearly Chart happened in 22.
To become bullish again Russel has to move beyond 2280 (-1625 is the lower end with a mid-point of 1940)…
Until then I will take a neutral bias towards this Index. Most likely we will consolidate on the 3D Chart between the two white lines - Demand and Supply Lines from the Quarterly Chart. Keep in mind that the Blue Box is the High of 23 and the Red Box Constitutes the Middle Line of 22.
I am looking to go long from the lower part and short from the upper part of the Consolidation - until a break occurs.
Normally I would enter on the 4h or 2h Chart but I will break it down to the 1H Chart because I like to take entries from there (Risk - Reward wise).
Thanks for reading
Fear and Greed Index: Decoding Crypto Market Sentiment!Hey everyone! If you enjoy this content, please consider giving it a thumbs up and following for more analysis.
The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and emotions can often drive trading decisions. The Fear and Greed Index attempts to quantify these emotions, providing a snapshot of investor sentiment at a given time.
What is the Fear and Greed Index?
The Fear and Greed Index is a composite score ranging from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).
It analyzes several data points to arrive at a single value:
Volatility:
Higher price swings indicate greater fear, while lower volatility suggests a calmer market.
Market Momentum:
Rapid price increases point to greed, while sustained price drops signal fear.
Social Media Sentiment:
Analyzing the tone of social media discussions about cryptocurrency can reveal fear or greed.
Survey Data:
Polls and surveys gauging investor sentiment are also factored in.
Dominance:
The market share of Bitcoin (BTC) relative to other cryptocurrencies is considered.
How to Interpret the Fear and Greed Index:
0-24: Extreme Fear: This indicates a potentially oversold market where investors are panicking. It might be a buying opportunity for long-term investors with a high-risk tolerance.
25-49: Fear: The market is cautious, and prices could go either way.
50-74: Greed: Investor sentiment is becoming optimistic, potentially leading to price increases. However, be cautious of entering a potentially overbought market.
75-100: Extreme Greed: Euphoria reigns, and prices could be inflated. This might be a good time to take profits or exercise caution before entering new positions.
Is the Fear and Greed Index Manipulated?
Can people mess with it? Kinda. They might try to fake positive social media stuff to make the index look more greedy than it is. Also, the way the index weighs different things can be tweaked a bit.
But here's the thing: There's a lot of data going into the score, so it's not super easy to manipulate. Plus, everyone knows how it works, so investors can take it with a grain of salt.
The Fear and Greed Index at 47 (Neutral)
With a current score of 47, the Fear and Greed Index suggests a neutral market sentiment. Investors are neither overly fearful nor excessively greedy. This could indicate a period of consolidation or a wait-and-see approach before the market makes its next move.
Remember:
The Fear and Greed Index is just one data point among many. Always conduct your own research and employ a comprehensive trading strategy before making any investment decisions.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
dax xetra - this is the first time I post a xetra chart as well. I trade the dax cfd but I want to find out how big the interest in my post is for xetra vs cfd. Only difference is in price.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18500. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 525 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 940 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18500ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18770 or possibly even wait for 18880 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it.
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18550 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 / 18900
bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 17700 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 18900.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18650.
outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18650 early next week. TP 18770 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18250 fast and below that is 17900.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18497 and now we are at 18557. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18650 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either.
short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 17900 over the next 1-3 weeks.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions.
Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 18890 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 18900, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19400 or 20000.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18800. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 572 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 1229 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18650ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18800 or possibly even wait for 19000 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it.
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 / 19000
bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 18600 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 19000.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18700.
outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18700 early next week. TP 18800 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18300 fast and below that is 18000.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18638 and now we are at 18572. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18700 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either.
short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions.
Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 19000 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 19000, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19500 or 20000.
Trend change from not bearish to bearish in Nifty?I was not bearish in Nifty until Friday but the market has not failed to surprise me yet again.
Important support (100 SMA) at 22000 was broken with conviction and India VIX is flying through the roof. These both points make me rethink my bullish thoughts I had and now I would either stay away from the market or wait for the right levels and sell on the rise but better option is to stay away from the market for a while and let the dust settle.
#Educational purpose only
Adani enterprises in Neutral modeThis stock in neutral mode - means neither good for selller or buyer
Advice --
For quity trader --
please trader according to my red Trendline price and sell above Trendline
-- stopp loss is mandatory if Trendline broken
For option trader -- seems market can go up 200-300 points to touch upper red Trendline
For more chart analysis comments me in this post.
BTC after huge upsite move need to steady out!Yesterday Idea went good , though short position
as i said was risky and got stoplosed at entry,
though longs are blowing up insame profit.
We are now moving in high resistance,
On higher Tf we are extremely bullish
while on lower we are looking kinda bearish ,
we might get spike soon like 600 dolars
15m candle for 800 dolars. I dont know if it is good
to short here but its friday, not much will happen
tomorow or sunday soo, shorts here are safe.
In my opinion we need to steady trend after night huge rise, soo we will stay at 45k-46k some time
BEARISH SELL STOP 🫡My trading plan does not allow me to buy into new highs.
However it's not safe or practical to aimlessly short the high.
A sell stop order is how I safely trade the highs.
I am Bearish to Neutral for now. Waiting for significant signs of bullish support.
Seasonally, the market is Bearish/ corrects on average going into February.
🫡🌊
GME TRENDS AND PRICE TARGETS, WE LOVE MEMESIf you've been following GME with me, you bought at 12.5 and below last month.
Sell target 1 was 16.9, we came close but lost a tiny bit on the first topside pump.
We bought the dip around 14.02 and below, and we were looking for 18, 21, and 25 with small retracements in between.
I'm not sure, but per indicators, it seems we might see the higher targets of 21 and 25 before we see the retracement targets of 10 and 8.
Faster and steeper we go up, the faster and steeper we drop, so remember, the time to be flinging money in without much worry was under 12.5. Now, you'll want to be trimming profits and compounding. How much should you sell and when? Only you can make that decision. However, feel free to use some my price targets if you're struggling to set your own.
If you're new to trading or my charts. We usually buy and sell on the major trends, and use the breakouts as a chance to compound profits, or simply wait for the right trade to present itself, whether bull or bear. Just because we are selling at these levels in a longer term trade doesn't mean there aren't chances to jump into shorter term trades. However, USE caution at these levels.
If you're bearish on this stock, you want to see it wedge down, and if bullish you want the breakout to the topside.
I tried to make this chart as simple as possible.
Squeeze targets included, but be REAL, it's unlikely, and it will be fast up and fast down should it occur. However, bears need to be real as well and realize that some of those topside numbers are very possible.
Options get a little wild around the 26 and 32 dollar marks I believe. You only wanna play with weekly options if you know how they move in relation to the price or you'll get killed from theta.
Good luck!
Just an ideaJust an idea, you can see Xrp went for $0.1665 to $0.5000
Then snapped back to $0.0085 before ripping up to $3.50
Always watching this coin because we all see it’s huge pontential, with BTC making a pattern to drop and black rock trying to control the market, I imagine we could see a sharp push up to collect, followed by a heavy retracement down before take off.
Currently sitting on the side waiting for confirmation of entry, but what we have seen in the past before Xrp takes off is a quick wick down then too the moon.
Currently sitting around $0.55 we could see a break downward if it doesn’t hold, however if it does hold we could see a push up collecting before a sharp retracement before take off.
Good luck and have fun with it
Uncertain EURUSD, but These Levels are likely ImportantUncertain EURUSD, but These Levels are likely Important
Dear Esteemed Members,
I know when I say the EUR can go up or down, doesn't seem to be useful, but I believe the outcome depends on resistance or support break and fundamental factors.
As per the latest technical analysis updates, it is widely agreed that the EUR/USD exchange rate is currently experiencing a downtrend. Examination of the four-hour chart reveals that the pair remains below both the 50- and 100-hour exponential moving averages in a downward trajectory. The relative strength index (RSI) is also bearish, dipping below 40, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment. Immediate support is identified at the 1.0920 level (200-hour exponential moving average), followed by the 1.0880 level (lower boundary of the rising regression trend channel) and the 1.0850 level (Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise).
Conversely, potential resistance levels for the EUR/USD are at the 1.0970 level (100-hour exponential moving average), the psychological and static level at 1.1000, and the 1.1050 level (midpoint of the rising channel).
In addition to technical factors, fundamental influences shape the EUR/USD exchange rate in the coming days. Attention focuses on the upcoming United States December labor market report, encompassing non-farm payroll (NFP) changes, average hourly earnings growth, and the unemployment rate. Market expectations project a 170,000 increase in NFP, a decrease from the 199,000 recorded in November. A higher-than-expected NFP could bolster the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Conversely, a lower-than-expected NFP may weaken the US dollar and elevate the EUR/USD exchange rate.
Kind Regards,
Ely
USDCAD Approaching Significant ZoneUSDCAD has been Ranging in higher timeframes.
On lower timeframes, a Bear market predominates.
Price approaching Significant Zone: 1.30900 - 1.31775
Although zone was used previously as support, momentum indicates probable continuation passed this zone onto lower prices - unless proven otherwise by future price movements.
Opinion is currently Neutral (no entry yet) with a Bearish bias .
Looking for appropriate market structure at Zone for entry (shorts).
Aggressively add to position if in profit, with appropriate risk managing and trading psychology.
Avoid adding to position if negative.