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BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Hope Short Refers To Your Height.BTCUSD update: Price has pushed to 8020 without any bearish hesitation on the larger time frames in the 6950 to 7350 resistance zone. What happened to the C Wave that I have been writing about? If you look at my previous BTC report, I specifically explained that B Waves are TRICKY. I also explained that price had to break back below the 6500 area in order to confirm that a C wave was in play, otherwise the market is likely going higher. The current price structure may still be a B Wave, but the factors that support that argument are much fewer in number. The bearish factors that can lead to a C Wave are the potential double top (8040 is not much higher than 7899). And also the failed breakout zone which price can actually go as high as 8500 and sell off hard from there. Why 8500? The range between 7899 and 8500 is an extension zone that is proportionate relative to the 5400 low. When failed breakouts occur, they are more likely to occur within this zone. If price pushes beyond 8500, then that is a sign of strength and signals higher prices to come. There are NO bearish reversal structures or support breaks to justify shorts at the MOMENT. The 7k level is the trend support (.382 of bullish structure from 5400 low.) There are NO bearish reversal candles or larger time frame triggers that signal selling. At the moment there is a mini consolidation that is unfolding which usually leads to higher prices since these are trend continuation patterns. As far as the C Wave, price must break below 7k in order to prove that a selling wave is in progress. Shorting before this happens (IF it happens) especially without any larger time frame structure is a low probability trade. An example of structure is the recent double top formation that occurred at the 7899 high (a week and a half ago). I do not consider this new high part of a triple top until there is proof of a reversal. Again there is nothing. Also something to keep in mind, markets that are weak test resistance and often reject it quickly. If the current situation was a triple top, price should be rejecting the 7900 level and instead it is consolidating on it. That is not a sign of coming weakness. I keep emphasizing that being flexible is key in fast markets like this. On the short time horizon, there is no time for opinions. Is it possible that the BTC minors and developer community are using their pull to manipulate this market? Sure, so even more reason to be flexible and recognize what the market is doing NOW and if there are any signs that it wants to reverse. Steve Spencer (The S of SMB Capital), my former boss and world class trader still says, "Be in the present, be flexible". This is an absolute must for short term speculation. In summary, this market is consolidating at a potential peak which can be taken as a sign of strength. Is it risky to get long if it breaks higher? Absolutely, especially on larger time horizon strategies like swing trading. "This market is always risky" you say, but it is riskier at the moment because it is flirting with all time highs, not a higher low which is where the reward/risk is favorable for swing trades. Wave counts work until they don't, just like everything else in TA. Our job as price action traders is to uncover the clues available now and adjust to changes as the market evolves. Listening to the market is an essential skill for short term trading, while imposing your own ideas upon it will give you a completely random result, but our own natural bias enjoys thinking we were "right". Good trades come from good plans, and flexible mindsets. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Risky Business.BTCUSD Update: Nothing new on the new high front except for a new high of 7598. When markets trade like this, it is always a good idea to really zoom out to get a sense of proportion and risk. People ask me why is it that I won't go long if I am projecting targets at the 8k level? I realize when I answer, "Risk is too high" that is vague. So in this chart I will demonstrate what I mean. For those who are new to trading in general, the expectations that you have in terms of time frame are a big part of defining risk. Swing trading (days to weeks) generally presents a multitude of risks, with one being larger daily price ranges compared to day trading (minutes to hours) especially in nutty markets like this one. This is why I have been encouraging day trading and staying away from swing trades. When I say I am not taking any swing trades long, it is because of the potential of the pullback vs. the potential of continuing higher. The weekly time frame of this market paints a clear picture of this potential in terms of price proportions. Two price extension levels projected from the recent wave 2 and 4 swing lows point to 7901 and 8006 levels as the 2.618 and 1.618 proportions respectively. These are extensions measured on the weekly time frame and are overlapping near a common price point. Overlapping extensions on large time frames like the weekly usually offer a more reliable point of reference in terms of potential. In my previous report I had a smaller time frame extension in the lower 8k area as well. That is only about 4 to 500 points away which can be achieved in a matter of hours. (Great for day trading). This is a reasonable expectation of potential because it is based on price structure. Now let's consider the pull back potential. When I measure the entire rise in this BTC beginning in the 150s, I get a .382 support at 4776. That means it is reasonable for price to pull back to this level, and still be within a price structure that is bullish. This level also coincides with the old resistance of 4970 (Wave 3 high). Now keep in mind, this does not mean price WILL retrace this far, it means that IF it happens, it is perfectly normal and would offer a buying opportunity. (A move like this can take weeks to play out). So what does all this mean? In theory, if I got long now for a swing trade, and I want to set a reasonable stop based on big picture price structure, I am looking at 1500 points, vs a potential 500 point profit (1:3 reward/risk?). The situation that is driving this market is unusual and serves as an outlier. As a short term trader, I am looking for repetition so that I can determine reliable signals and achieve consistent results, not long shot one offs. If I wanted a long shot, I would play roulette. 1:3 reward/risk? That means if I short it, my reward/risk is 3:1! The bears are forgetting that this is not the only factor when it comes to measuring risk. There is also the probability of the trade going in your favor on this time frame. As I wrote about in my previous report, there is no structure in place at all that makes for a broader bearish argument. This conflict is also another good reason to either day trade or stay out. This environment presents a problem that day trading solves because you are not exposed to all this risk, but can still benefit from the lingering bullish momentum. In summary, when it comes to swing trading, being aware of the big picture is a helpful exercise that offers insight that is not available on small time frames. The example that I illustrated here is not a prediction, rather it is an idea of what is within reason based on price proportions. Price may not come close to retesting 4770 when the larger magnitude correction unfolds, but even if it pulls back half way, you are looking at the higher 5ks which is quite a ways from where price is now. If this doesn't paint a clear picture of risk, than I don't know what will. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: No Signs Of Selling. Yet.BTCUSD Update: 7530 all time high is reached as this relentless rally continues. The question is what is how much higher can it go? One extension is taken out after another. The next price target based on an extension projected from the bottom of the most recent bullish structure is 8271 (the 2.618 extension). Yes it is hard to believe price can make it that high, but this market does not care what we believe. At the moment, there is not much on the chart that shows any signs of immediate weakness. Pull backs are shallow and no where near any major support levels. This is why I have been saying in order to trade this market and keep your risk low, it is important to stay focused on the smaller time frames where you can make adjustments quickly. There are opportunities both long and short if you have the plan and the agility. As far as shorts go, this market reminds me of the Dow futures back in 2007. At the time, the market was relentlessly strong and I felt that the strength was simply unjustified. So I was shorting it and getting hammered over and over. It was pushing 14k which were all time highs. Eventually the market sold off, that was some time in 2008. I was a little early. The lesson that I learned besides not to short a market pushing new highs is this: If you are going to short the bigger picture, at least wait for some form of structure like a double top on a large time frame like a 4 hour or above.This may require a ton of patience, but even if you are wrong, and the market still goes higher, your chances of a profitable outcome are much better. Shorting a market on new highs because you feel "how much higher can it go?" is a bad reason to be short. If you want to see a great example of a market that offered structure for bigger picture shorting? Look no further than the EURUSD on a 4 hour or larger time frame. Head and shoulders after head and shoulders. That is what a bigger picture short looks like. Now if you are day trading than you can get away shorting as long a you are taking your profits quickly. A shallow retrace for this market is 300 points, which offers plenty of opportunity for this type of strategy. As far as my plan for this market (since I am looking for longs only), I would like to see IF price can retrace back to 6567 which is now the .382 of the recent bullish swing. While a break of that level can take prices to the 5798 area which is the .382 of the broad bullish structure. IF the market retraces to either one of these levels, that is where I will look for bullish reversals for a possible swing trade long. I do not expect a retrace of that magnitude until after the upcoming fork is out of the way. Also remember that in order f or a retrace like this to unfold, something will have to surprise the market. Just like the Chinese government nonsense over a month ago. Remember that? Yeah neither does this market. In summary. strong markets like this are not driven by logic, and as one trader wrote in a previous comment, "Noone wants to buy the top" so it tough not to get involved one way or the other if you let your emotions get the best of you. Taking swing trades at these levels is high risk long or short (unless you don't mind taking 1k points of pain). Day trading is where the best opportunities are because you are looking for small profits (30 points is small). In terms of proportion, this market can see the 8k level, especially since there is no real selling signals to speak of. My plan as I have written before is to wait for a retrace back to one of my projected levels and look for reversal from there for a swing trade long. No need to get emotional, just a matter of waiting. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
33
Apple long term buy?I remember buying AAPL at 119.00 and I sold off my shares near 140-150. Another opportunity has risen. AAPL has broken out of a head and shoulders pattern. Also, the 50 MA is providing support and the coppock curve has a lot more room to move positive so this could be a chance to get back in. (If the stock does fall then it will probably fall into the top of the head and then rebound). AAPL recently released the iPhone X so since that's so recent there is not much room for its sales and profit to be counted in today's earnings report - but maybe in Q4. So, if the stock rises I may cancel my take profit and go long-term. But, if it falls as I previously said I may buy for a medium-term swing trade.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by BlackbearTrader
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: New High And More Risk.BTCUSD Update: 7350 all time high reached which is nothing short of amazing. The best way to participate in this market is day trading because IF this market continues higher, the risk will only increase. I have been mentioning it more and more in my previous BTC reports, this is a day trading environment. Why? You can find signals on smaller time frames, capture 50 to 100 points within an hour, and get out for relatively lower risk. That cannot be done on the swing trade time frame because the risk is enormous. Think about this for a moment: No one knows where the high will be. No analysis, indicator or technique will ever forecast the high or low especially on a large magnitude with any degree of consistency. What if you were the trader who bought at 7200 thinking this thing is going to 8k and watching it sink to 6765 over the next couple of hours? Based on the price extension projected from the 5365 low, 7154 is the 1.618 target which again only serves as an estimate. The fact that price went above and back below this level in a matter of hours is certainly something to note. Nothing goes up in a straight line. People who are new to this do not understand the risk of retracing increases, the higher the market goes. At the moment, the first retrace level that IF reached would be perfectly reasonable is 6465 which is the .382 of the recent bullish structure coming from the 5114 low. That is where I would be interested in looking for an entry. If that level happens to break, the next level is 5705 which is the .382 of the entire bullish structure. This level also happens to overlap the .618 of the recent bullish swing which is 5920 to 5520 area. These are the levels that offer more attractive reward/risk compared to where price is now in terms of swing trades. Not to mention, the wave count is clearly within a 5 of 5, and extensions and extreme sentiment often occur on this wave. Yet another reason to not take any swing or position trades at these levels. This is why day trading has a purpose, but also requires experience. Without a well defined structure, your expectations will be unreasonable which will set you up for naturally taking risks that are not proportionate to that time frame. So if you are newer, my recommendation is stay out, or find another market. At the moment, it is easy to get consumed by all the hype and media attention and rocket paintings because it appeals to our greed and fear of missing out further. A lesson I learned a long time ago is that when things in the market look their best, that is usually the worst time to buy, and when things look their worst, that is usually the best time to buy. This market looks poised to go to 8k. This is why I will NOT touch it, not even with borrowed money. In summary, this market is impressive, and could possibly be driven by the expectations of "free money" in the upcoming Segwit2X. Either way, it is not a market that offers attractive reward/risk and does not meet the criteria of MY swing trade plan. Like everything else, it will retrace, but when? It can happen any time, and if I am going to do anything in this market, I would rather wait until one of my retrace prices are reached at least. If you are looking for action, look to the smaller time frames if you have the experience and well defined plan. Better opportunities in these markets are not finite, there is no need to chase, it is just a matter of waiting it out. Comments and question welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
88
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Converging Trendlines?BTCUSD Update: New highs but on below average volume as it attempts to break out of the fake out zone at 6410. This new high and failure to sell off below the 6k level makes the alternate wave count that I have been writing about clear. What makes this new high suspect is the volume. If you notice, what has been happening in recent price action is a volume spike occurs on the initial leg of the move, and it dramatically declines as price attempts to follow through, like in this case, to a new high. This type of behavior has been followed by a reversal of momentum which makes the current level very risky for new longs. On top of that, price is attempting to push the upper boundary of what I like to call the fake out zone. This is a projected zone that is based on the range of the previous swing high of 6151 to the low of 5365. There is no guarantee that price will fail, but if it does, it is most likely to happen within this zone. Combine that with the below average volume situation, and you can get a better sense of what this market is likely to do in the next couple of days at least. Even though the alternate wave count appears to be in play, it is now possible to draw convergent trend lines on the highs and lows of this price structure. This rising wedge formation implies shallow pullbacks and slightly higher highs in the near term, but longer term this is bearish. Once 5 waves are complete within this structure, a serious correction is likely. Based on a measurement and projecting from the 5632 low, this market can go as high as the 6700s (which is the 1.618 extension from current swing low) before the major correction possibly unfolds. These type of formations commonly appear in Wave 5. One thing that I have to mention about Elliott Wave is that like anything else in TA, it is not 100% accurate. Nothing is. When the market negates a wave count, you have to adjust to the new market information and relabel the formations. This is why it is important to understand and use multiple elements like support and resistance, candle sticks and chart formations to provide guidance as well. (This is especially helpful when markets change fast like this one). So what is the best way to play this market? Day trading offers the best reward/risk in my opinion because it allows you to participate in very short term moves, along with low risk stops and helps you avoid any major adverse movements. It also allows you to trade with a lot more flexibility because the movements on that time frame are proportionally large in either direction. It is not easy though because you must be nimble. Day trading requires a ton of attention, and a very well defined plan. Like I wrote before, if you do not have a process that provides guidance for your decision making, then do not trade at all, especially do not day trade. In summary, the current price action has made for a clearer wave count which is bullish, but also offers perspective on how much longer this momentum can persist before a more serious correction. At the moment, this formation may conveniently line up with the Segwit2X coming up in a few weeks. The best strategies to employ in this environment in my opinion are ultra short term, and if you are sitting on some coins with a nice profit, remember it never hurts to lock some in. These type of rising wedge formations often lead to much more dramatic market reversals, and until that is out of the way, I do not plan on taking any swing trades in this market. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
36
EURAUD: Don't miss this tradeEURAUD havent shown what we usually seen in this pair for continuation of the downside. It is currently consolidating sideways tightly (for the timeframe it's in). This indicate to us that a potential uptrend is likely on the way. Compare this with how the AUD is doing, this euro pair can go even higher. The Eurnzd can go down, if you look at the AUDNZD. The NZD is gaining strength to the AUD. Therefore, Euraud going up and Eurnzd going down is possible. Trade with care.
Long
by AbdorhmanThi
Activision Blizzard - New High expected NASDAQ:ATVI Activision Blizzard released "Legion" this year for World of Warcraft. As seen on the past view add-ons after the release we got a dropdown because the expectations were better than we got. At the end the subscriptions get lower and lower. Right now Blizzard delivered what they said, and sure not all is working well, like the PVP system a lot of people complaining about but we still will keep a good amount of subscriptions and get new subscribers or subscribers which are coming back with Patch 7.2 . For Diabolo I think we can expect a paid addon/extension in the next view years. People still excite each season, so I highly expect here an increase of sales when that is coming out. The same expectation I have for Overwatch. This game got us a huge amount of sales in 2017, and if they place some new things in a paid store or so, we can expect a new high again. What makes me a bit angry about that is that Blizzard is not lowering price for Character Boosts on World of Warcraft. People need to pay 50€ to get 100. A lot of people complaining about that. I think it would be better to give boost for free but then sell XP boosts over the shop for like ten bucks for 24 hours or so. But they also could lower the price of the boost to 15-25 € and so people would pay more often that boost because they then can play a lot more classes. We also can expect the second movie of Warcraft which should get Wow Players into the cinemas So my opinion is we will see now January 2017 maybe still a bit of drawdown to 33.00 but then when 7.2 is released and the first news released about the Abonnements etc. we will get a new high. I expect to hit over 60.00 by the end of the year.
NASDAQ:ATVILong
by icoset