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XAUUSD; long-term analysis pre-NFPHere is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels. Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2670s. Our scenarios are in play after the NFP data is out. Let’s take another look at them with more in-depth outcomes. These scenarios are written from just a TA (Technical Analysis) point of view. Scenario 1: long-term BUYS -We broke above 2675. With the break of 2675 we can expect a possible move up to 2690. With a retest back at 2700s, that would confirm continuation buys and we would have to keep our eye out on our next KL (Key Level) at around 2714 or previous highs at 2726. Scenario 2: long-term SELLS -We respected our KL and stayed below 2675.700. If we start making our way down to 2646 and manage to break below it, we could see more sells in play down to 2604. NFP DATA! WHAT’S COMING? With the NFP data coming out tomorrow , we can expect huge volatility. Spikes are to be expected. With the Jobless claims report we got yesterday, we can possibly anticipate more positive numbers for the TVC:DXY and potentially leading into more sells on OANDA:XAUUSD which would play by our Scenario 2 ! If on the other hand the NFP data comes in lower than expected, we should follow by our long-term Scenario 1 . IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS: - 2690 ; breaks above would result in gold revisiting previous highs - 2675 ; breaks above would result in more upside - 2646 ; breaks below would result in sells - 2633 ; breaks below confirming lower levels - 2620 ; breaks below confirming lower levels - 2604 ; breaks below would confirm gold is bearish and we should see lower levels (2590..) Personal opinion: As the new financial year is here, and we are barely in the first weeks of trading, the direction for now is unclear until we break our mentioned key levels. The spikes we had last few days on XAUUSD did not give us the best or most optimal trading conditions. The market is undecided on the direction, until we get the NFP Data out. Stay patient and be smart. KEY NOTES - XAUUSD breaking above 2675 would confirm buys. - XAUUSD failing to break above 2675 could result in lower prices. - Breaks below 2646 would result in sells. - The market has no directions until we get the NFP Data out on Friday 10th. - Positive NFP Data would result in stronger DXY and lower prices on XAUUSD, potentially following our long-term scenario 2. - Negative NFP Data would result in weaker DXY and higher prices on XAUUSD, potentially following our long-term scenario 1. Happy trading! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FxPocket
3
Market Analisys: S&P 500SP:SPX In recent months, the S&P 500 has experienced notable fluctuations: 1. All-Time High : The index reached a record high of 6,099.97 points on December 6, 2024. 2. Correction : It then faced a correction, dropping to a low of 5,805.65 points by January 8, 2025. 3. Current Performance : As of January 14, 2025, the index closed at 5,842.91 points, reflecting a slight 0.11% increase compared to the previous day. 4. Technical Outlook : Analysts highlight potential weakness, with the next support level identified at 5,771.5 points. In summary, the SP:SPX has exhibited volatility, peaking in December 2024 and entering a correction phase in early 2025. Let's analyze in detail the various phases that have led us to this point – starting from October 27, 2023, the last moment with a significant downturn. Since then, we’ve seen an increase of about 50%, with a maximum drawdown of 10%. This represents a more than positive performance. Prior to this, we experienced a brief decline lasting around 90 days, with a drop of approximately 11%. Subsequent rallies have generally been strong, although they have been shorter and more contained. In total, we’ve experienced 5 rallies and 5 pullbacks. Currently, we are in a downtrend. As mentioned earlier, except for the first rally, the most significant one, recent bull runs have been consistently interrupted by unwelcome news, data that does not meet investor expectations, and announcements from the FED and ECB indicating that interest rate cuts will be smaller than anticipated. All of this has brought us to the current situation. We are now facing a maximum decline of about 5-6%, with a bounce on the trendline that has been guiding us since October 2023. This is all happening as inflation data is released today. The market seems to have entered a phase where it seeks further confirmations from the economy, and the technical chart is showing exactly that. Additionally, we have several other key economic data releases scheduled for this week. What do you think the market’s next move will be?
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by TIMINGTRADE
The Macroeconomic Impact of the Latest Inflation Report on USDIntroduction: Inflation data has always been a crucial driver of currency movements, and the upcoming inflation report is no exception. With USD/JPY currently at a pivotal point, traders are closely watching how the figures will influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and market sentiment. Current Market Dynamics: The USD/JPY pair has been consolidating within a tight range between and , reflecting traders' caution ahead of the release. Expectations of could push the pair out of its current range. Scenarios and Key Levels: Higher-than-expected inflation: 1.Potential breakout above . Target level: . 2.Lower-than-expected inflation: Retest of and potential slide toward . 3.Neutral inflation figures: Likely continuation of range-bound trading between and . Conclusion and Community Call-to-Action: What are your thoughts on the upcoming inflation report? Will it trigger a significant move in USD/JPY, or will the pair remain range-bound? Share your analyses and charts in the comments below! 👇
by Safaric
Comprehensive Gold Analysis for the Week of January 6, 2025Comprehensive Gold Analysis for the Week of January 6, 2025 Gold enters 2025 with a complex yet promising outlook, driven by a combination of macroeconomic, technical, and geopolitical factors shaping a favorable environment for investors. Below is an in-depth analysis of the current market conditions and potential scenarios for gold this week. Current Market Context Gold concluded the first trading week of January near $2,657 per ounce , consolidating its upward momentum from late 2024. This movement has been underpinned by: - Sustained central bank demand , particularly in emerging markets. - Geopolitical uncertainty , including tensions in the Middle East and Europe. - Expectations for looser monetary policies from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed). In 2024, gold achieved an exceptional annual gain of +27% , its best performance since 2010, driven by its role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The metal reached an all-time high of $2,790 , setting the stage for continued volatility and opportunity in 2025. Key Fundamental Drivers 1. Global Monetary Policies - The Fed adopted a cautious stance in December, signaling a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is only an 11.2% probability of a rate cut in January, suggesting short-term stability in interest rates. - In contrast, Europe and China are expected to pursue more accommodative monetary policies. China has already announced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to counter its economic slowdown. 2. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East remain significant drivers of safe-haven demand. - Additionally, uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies under President Donald Trump is adding to market volatility. While some policies may bolster the dollar, others—such as trade tariffs—could increase demand for gold as a hedge. 3. Central Bank and Physical Demand - Central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold reserves since 2022, with purchases expected to exceed the historical average of 500 tons annually in 2025. - In China, a weakening yuan and a sluggish real estate market could further boost physical gold demand. Technical Analysis Gold is currently trading within a critical range that could determine its short-term trajectory: - Key Resistance Levels: - $2,666 (psychological barrier). - $2,700 (significant technical resistance). - All-time highs near $2,790 . - Key Support Levels : - $2,635 , aligned with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). - Lower levels around $2,600 and $2,532 , which could act as correction zones. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near neutral territory (50), indicating potential for upward movement if immediate resistance is breached. However, the range between $2,607 and $2,736 will be pivotal in defining this week’s trend. Projections for This Week Bullish Scenario A decisive breakout above $2,666 could pave the way for further gains toward psychological levels at $2,700 and potentially beyond. Catalysts for this scenario include: - Weak U.S. economic data—such as Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report—supporting expectations for monetary easing. - Escalation of geopolitical tensions or clear indications of additional Chinese stimulus. Bearish or Corrective Scenario Conversely, unexpected strength in the U.S. dollar or robust economic data could exert downward pressure on gold prices. In this case: - A pullback toward support levels at $2,635 or even $2,600 would be likely before resuming the broader uptrend. Strategic Insights Gold maintains a favorable outlook for this week due to strong fundamental and technical support. However, traders should closely monitor three key factors: 1. The release of U.S. labor market data (NFP) on Friday. 2. Movements in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields. 3. Emerging geopolitical developments that could shift risk sentiment. The current consolidation near critical technical levels offers opportunities for both bullish and corrective strategies. Active risk management will be essential given the anticipated volatility.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by sdfsdfdfsdfsdfsdfd
#XAUUSDFed exposed: Probability of raising interest rates next year up to 40%? 🔻 The Fed reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25%-4.50%, but the market perceived this as a "hawkish" move. 🔻 The market reacted strongly: USD soared, stocks fell sharply, US bond yields increased. 🔻 The Fed's economic forecast is controversial when it increases the 2025 inflation forecast to 2.5% and reduces the number of interest rate cuts in 2024 to two. 🔻 Some economists, like Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok, predict a 40% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 2025. 🔻 The upcoming Trump administration's trade and tax policies could push inflation higher, forcing the Fed to consider raising interest rates sooner, possibly as soon as the second quarter of 2025. 🔻 Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, emphasizing the need to maintain a flexible stance in the face of
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SadarExplore
Gold Market Update:Corective Phase Set Stage for Further DeclineGold has entered a corrective phase following yesterday's substantial decline, with price action consolidating within a defined range. This period of consolidation is expected to persist, allowing the market to recalibrate before the prevailing bearish momentum likely resumes. Downside targets remain intact, with the next leg lower anticipated once the correction concludes. Engage with this analysis by liking, sharing, or sharing your perspectives in the comments below.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FXKAMRAN8
1
#GOLD XAUUSD SELL MORE?🌐The Fed cut interest rates by another quarter point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% early this morning and announced it would continue to shrink its balance sheet. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted to keep rates unchanged. After confirming the Fed had delivered a 25 basis point cut, markets immediately turned to see how the central bank’s view on future rate cuts has changed. Unsurprisingly, the Fed is expected to be more cautious in 2025 than President Trump had predicted before the election. The Fed is expected to cut by 50 basis points, while raising its inflation outlook
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeAdvisory
BTCUSD Wyckoff Accumulation Phase completedLets assume that the strength in the US dollar wont last for too much longer, as Central Banks try and work out how many more trillions are needed in the system. The BTCUSD had been in a trading range for some time and this week we convincingly left it, with a big dose of Bullish price action. Will it last? IDK. I am long BTCUSD so I am fundamentally in the Bitcoin 🚀 camp so I am also talking up my own book. However, if we look to Wyckoff and transpose his teachings on the stages of the accumulation phase, we get quite a convincing outlook to the upside. It could all be down to the fact that we see what we want to see, or it could be a run on the banks to the crypto-sphere.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Macrobriefing
3
BEML Ltd: Bullish Breakout AnalysisUpdate: BEML secured a ₹136 crore order from the Ministry of Defence, strengthening its fundamentals and boosting investor sentiment. Technical Highlights: Breakout Zone: Stock broke above ₹4,500 resistance with strong volumes, confirming bullish momentum. Key Levels: Support: ₹4,300 | ₹4,040 Resistance: ₹4,762 | ₹4,995 | ₹5,205 | ₹5,472 (Fibonacci target). Trend: Higher highs and higher lows indicate a sustained uptrend. Momentum: RSI in overbought territory suggests strong buying pressure, with potential minor pullbacks. Outlook: The technical breakout, combined with a solid fundamental catalyst, positions BEML for a potential rally toward ₹5,200–₹5,470. A stop-loss below ₹4,300 is advised for risk management. Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Please consult a financial advisor before investing.
NSE:BEMLLong
by AngshumanSaikia
VIRTUALUSDT: Strategic Entry into AI-Driven Metaverse TokenVirtuals Protocol ( KUCOIN:VIRTUALUSDT ): Strategic Entry into AI-Driven Metaverse Token Trade Setup: - Entry Price: $1.586 - Stop-Loss: $1.421 - Take-Profit Targets: - TP1: $1.927 - TP2: $2.333 Fundamental Analysis: Virtuals Protocol is an innovative cryptocurrency aiming to revolutionize virtual interactions through its AI and Metaverse protocol. It serves as the infrastructure layer for co-owned, human-curated, plug-and-play gaming AIs, positioning itself at the forefront of integrating artificial intelligence with immersive virtual environments. Technical Analysis: - Current Price: $1.64 - Moving Averages: - 50-Day SMA: $1.50 - 200-Day SMA: $1.20 - Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 70, indicating overbought conditions. - Support and Resistance Levels: - Support: $1.50 - Resistance: $1.80 Market Sentiment: The cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed interest, with Virtuals Protocol standing out due to its innovative combination of AI and Metaverse elements. Its recent listing on major exchanges like Gate.io has increased its visibility and trading volume. Risk Management: Setting a stop-loss at $1.421 helps mitigate potential losses, while the take-profit targets of $1.927 and $2.333 offer favourable risk-reward ratios. Given VIRTUAL's volatility, strict adherence to these levels is crucial. *When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave!* *Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.*
Long
by SiriusTrading
BTCUSD Update: Retest 100K or New Moves Ahead?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! Today, the fear and greed index remains in extreme greed at 78, while the stochastic RSI has dropped to the oversold area at 9. In the previous market update, I mentioned the potential for BTC to visit the 93K area. This morning, it dropped to around the 94K price range, which leads me to consider the 93K area invalid. So, where is BTC heading next? Based on today’s price action, there’s a big probability for a retest of the 100K area. Following this, I see two possible scenarios considering the current extreme greed zone: A pump to 105K–109K. A dump to the 90K–85K area. Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by x_Akki
SBI Life Insurance Co. Ltd. - Technical Analysis UpdateSupport and Resistance Zones: 1.Key Support Zone: ₹1,385-₹1,463 This zone aligns with the Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level and the recent reversal point, making it a strong support. 2.Immediate Resistance Levels: ₹1,555 (Fibonacci 0.382 retracement). ₹1,630 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement). ₹1,705 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement), a crucial level to watch. 3.Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The stock has retraced sharply from its high of ₹1,943 and is showing signs of reversal near the 0.236 Fibonacci level. A breakout above ₹1,500 could confirm bullish momentum toward higher Fibonacci levels. 4.Volume Analysis: Volume appears to be increasing near the support zone, indicating buying interest from market participants. The Volume Profile indicates strong accumulation between ₹1,400-₹1,500. 5.Moving Averages: The stock is attempting to reclaim the 20-day EMA as a dynamic support. A crossover above the 50-day EMA could signal further bullish strength. 6.RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is recovering from oversold levels, indicating a possible trend reversal. A move above 50 would strengthen the bullish case. 7.Projection: If the stock sustains above ₹1,463, it could aim for ₹1,555 in the short term and ₹1,705 in the medium term. A break below ₹1,385 would invalidate this view and could lead to further downside. Conclusion: SBI Life Insurance is poised for a potential bounce-back. Traders can consider entries near the ₹1,450-₹1,470 range, targeting ₹1,555 and ₹1,705 with appropriate stop losses below ₹1,385.
NSE:SBILIFELong
by AngshumanSaikia
BTCUSD Update: Correction or Pump to 107K?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! Today, the fear and greed index remains in extreme greed at 78, while the stochastic RSI is sideways at 40. From a price action perspective, there’s a higher probability of BTC revisiting the 93K area for a deeper correction. However, there’s a small chance of a pump to around 107K. Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by x_Akki
BTCUSD Hits 100K, but Is Correction Looming?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! BTC finally hit the long-awaited 100K milestone, reaching as high as 104K on some exchanges. However, this morning saw a significant drop, breaking through our red zone at 94K-93K. The fear and greed index has dropped to 72, now in the greed zone. On the H4 timeframe, the stochastic RSI is at 39 and heading toward the oversold area. Looking at the Daily timeframe, BTC has a big chance of continuing its correction, with potential targets in the 84K range, or pushing the fear and greed index toward the neutral zone first. Currently, there’s no clear sign of another pump for BTC, and even if it happens, it might only retest 100K within our green zone. Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by x_Akki
BTCUSD Approaching Key Resistance: Will 99K Hold?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! Today’s fear and greed index stands at 84, maintaining extreme greed status. Meanwhile, the stochastic RSI has entered the oversold area, sitting at 88. From a price action perspective, the range of 96,900 - 97,500 has been successfully broken. The next target is 99K. However, caution is advised as there’s a potential correction range between 98,061 - 96,911. Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by x_Akki
A stock to watch for... LONG setup or PUMP and DUMP ? PSQ Holdings, Inc. (PSQH) has recently seen a significant surge in its stock price following the announcement that Donald Trump Jr. will join the company's board of directors. This news has generated substantial investor interest, leading to a more than 270% increase in share price for the session. The addition of Donald Trump Jr. to the board is a strong positive signal for the company, indicating potential strategic changes and increased credibility. Given the recent surge in stock price and positive analyst ratings, there is a strong case for a continued upward trend. In addition, his father is the USA president... And you know what I think of human nature... So trust human nature... and watch for a LONG setup on this stock. Obviously, watch it carefully so it will not turn out as a pump and dump, so manage your risk properly.
NYSE:PSQHLong
by ZoharCho
Bitcoin Reclaims $96K – Is $100K Within Reach This Month?Good morning, crypto bro's! Starting from today's market update, I will likely focus more on the H4 timeframe rather than D1. Larger timeframes will only be reviewed every 3 to 7 days, while daily updates will now rely on the H4 timeframe. This morning, the Fear and Greed Index remains in the Extreme Greed zone, currently at 78, while the Stochastic RSI is in the middle range, around 40. As I mentioned in yesterday's market update, Bitcoin had the potential to revisit the $93K range, and it finally did. Now, it has climbed back to $96K. The $96,900 - $97,500 range and the $99,700 - $100,200 range remain challenging areas to break. Challenging doesn’t mean impossible—based on current price action, there is a high probability for Bitcoin to hit $100K within this month. As always, stay safe, don’t FOMO, always manage your risks, and that’s all for today’s update. This is Akki, signing off with one chart. Have a great day and stay SAFU!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by x_Akki
GBPAUD TO 1.9600 TODAY?Trading Plan 1. Baseline Scenario: - Macro-Fundamental Bias: Neutral to Dovish . The RBA is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates, with markets anticipating a quarter-point rate cut by May 2025 and rates ending 2025 at 3.85%. This expectation is based on the need for more progress in reducing core inflation to the 2-3% target range. - Short Term Sentiment Bias: Bearish . The AUD is under pressure due to its role as a proxy for the Chinese yuan, influenced by US tariff risks and ongoing economic uncertainties in China. Additionally, Australia's current account deficit and weak export data contribute to the negative sentiment. 2. Risk Event Baseline : - Market Expectations : - Australian GDP (QoQ) Q3: Consensus at 0.5% (previous: 0.2%). - Australian GDP (YoY) Q3: Consensus at 1.1% (previous: 1.0%). - China Caixin Services PMI (Nov): Consensus at 52.5 (previous: 52.0). 3. Surprise Scenarios: - Negative Surprise : - Australian GDP: If GDP figures come in below expectations, it could exacerbate the bearish sentiment, leading to further AUD selling. - China Caixin Services PMI: If the PMI is weaker than expected, it could further pressure the AUD due to its correlation with the Chinese economy.
Long
by Midas_Macro