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NEWS
AUD/USD H4 13 March 2024AUD/USD, H4 13 March 2024
The Australian dollar, while experiencing a slight retreat from its recent bullish momentum against the U.S. dollar, continues to follow an upward trajectory in the AUD/USD pair. Traders are carefully positioning themselves ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision scheduled for next week. Market expectations lean towards the RBA adopting a relatively hawkish stance, considering Australia's high inflation rate and stable GDP growth.
The AUD/USD pair has found support and traded sideways after easing slightly from its recent peak. Suggesting the bullish momentum is easing.
Resistance level: 0.6617, 0.6660📉
Support level: 0.6560, 0.6535📈
EURUSD H4 13 March 2024EUR/USD, H4 13 March 2024
The EUR/USD pair has showcased resilience, managing to strengthen against the dollar even as the latter saw an upswing in the previous session fueled by a robust CPI reading. The euro's buoyancy can be largely attributed to a hawkish stance adopted by several members of the European Central Bank (ECB), indicating a reluctance to consider a rate cut in the near term. This position is further supported by recent regional economic data surpassing expectations, suggesting that the ECB's tightening monetary policy could persist for extended periods. This scenario highlights the euro's strength amidst signals of the ECB's more cautious and prolonged approach to monetary tightening.
EUR/USD has eased from its bullish trend but remains in an uptrend trajectory. Suggesting that the bullish momentum is drastically easing.
Resistance level: 1.0955, 1.1040📉
Support level: 1.0865, 1.0775📈
GBPUSD H4 13 March 2024GBP/USD, H4 13 March 2024
The Pound Sterling has managed to find support at 1.2780 levels, experiencing a modest rebound from its recent bearish trend. However, recent economic data from the UK has presented some challenges for the currency. Yesterday's release of average earning growth and the unemployment rate fell short of expectations, adding to the pressure on the Sterling. Meanwhile, the Dollar strengthened further as the CPI reading surpassed expectations. Traders are likely to closely monitor the upcoming UK GDP reading scheduled for today. This data will provide insights into the overall economic conditions in the country, potentially influencing the strength and direction of the Pound.
GBP/USD has found support from its recent bearish trend at 1.2780 levels, suggesting a potential rebound at these levels. Suggests the bullish momentum is vanishing.
Resistance level:1.2905, 1.2995📉
Support level: 1.2780, 1.2710📈
DOLLAR_INDX H4 13 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 13 March 2024
The Dollar Index, consisting of major currencies, surged following the release of robust US inflation data. February's consumer price growth exceeded expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could complicate the Federal Reserve's rate decisions. Headline US consumer prices rose by 3.2% annually, surpassing forecasts of 3.1%, while core CPI data climbed to 3.8%, exceeding economists' projections at 3.7%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Dollar Index is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. Suggesting the index might extend its gains after breakout.
Resistance level: 103.05, 103.70📉
Support level:102.55, 102.10📈
The TradingView Digest - March 12thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top posts from our community, which includes a video tutorial on our newly revamped screener tool, an informative post about portfolio diversification, a hot script on tick data, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events.
💡 Diversification: What It Is, Why It Matters & How to Do It - by TradingView
Portfolio diversification is the strategy of spreading your money across diverse investments in order to mitigate risk, hedge and balance your exposure in pursuit of uncorrelated returns. While it may sound complex at first, portfolio diversification could be your greatest strength when you set out to trade and invest in the financial markets.
💡🎥 TradingView Screener 2.0 - by zAngus
The TradingView Screener was what initially led me to use TradingView. It allows me to quickly and easily filter thousands of stocks down to just a handful that meet my criteria. No matter your preferred trading style - whether it's based on technicals, fundamentals, indicators, price action, RSI, MACD, volume, etc. - the TradingView Screener can quickly help you narrow down any stocks that meet your criteria.
📰 Top Stories
U.S. Feb Nonfarm Payrolls +275K; Unemployment Rate 3.9%
SMCI: Super Micro Stock Jumps 3% on Upgrade. Here’s Why Shares are Up 10X in One Year.
XAU/USD: Gold Shines Bright to Record High of $2,160 as Central Banks Stack Up
BTC/USD: Bitcoin Cools Off After Knocking Out Fresh All-Time High Above $69,000, Smashing 2021 Record
CPI, Rates and Other Key Things to Watch This Week
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
America's Car-Mart (CRMT) Reports Q3 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates
Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. Reports Q4 and Year-End 2023 Results
Amplify Energy (AMPY) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
Algonquin Powers Up In Q4 But Skips Guidance On Uncertainty Over Renewables Sale
Paysafe Shares Slip 14% on Surprise 4Q Loss
💡 A Simplified Model for Bubbles - by holeyprofit
Understanding the phases of a bubble and crash is not as grandiose a claim as it's made out to be. My idea that bubbles and pops can be understood is based on my opinion that various TA methods do a good job of explaining trend development. When major bubbles and pops are viewed in hindsight, they exhibit obvious fingerprints of bull/bear trend development.
💡 Bitcoin is Still Behaving like a Risk Asset - by Tradersweekly
After reaching a new all-time high last week, Bitcoin underwent a mini flash crash, erasing more than 14% within a few hours but soon recovered. The number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC slightly increased, while those with balances exceeding 100 BTC dropped slightly.
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Order Chain - by Kioseff Trading
This indicator utilizes live tick data to visualize volume dynamics in real-time.
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“ The trend is your friend. ”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, comments, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
TradingView Team
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CL OIL H4 11 March 2024 🛢 CL OIL, H4 🛢 11 March 2024
Crude oil prices experience a slight dip as apprehensions persist over soft Chinese demand. Despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts, China's conservative economic growth target of around 5% for 2024 raises concerns. Analysts emphasise the challenging outlook without additional stimulus measures. Attention shifts to major central banks' potential rate cuts, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB, as lower rates could stimulate oil demand by fostering economic growth.
Oil prices are trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. Suggesting the commodity might extend its losses.
Resistance level: 78.00, 80.20📉
Support level: 75.95, 73.45📈
USDJPY H4 11 March 2024USD/JPY, H4 11 March 2024
The USD/JPY pair extends its aggressive decline, weighed down by a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan. Growing anticipation of the Bank of Japan exiting ultra-dovish policies fuels market demand for the Japanese yen. Policymakers' emphasis on a positive wage cycle and the potential for inflation to surpass the 2% target further intensify expectations for a tightening monetary cycle.
USD/JPY is trading lower while currently testing the support level. Suggesting the pair might enter oversold territory.
Resistance level: 147.60, 149.40📉
Support level: 146.35, 145.05📈
EURUSD H4 11 March 2024EUR/USD, H4 11 March 2024
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward momentum, primarily driven by the depreciation of the US Dollar. Despite the worse-than-expected US Unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings, triggering a significant sell-off in the Greenback, the Euro remains resilient. While the Eurozone lacks significant market catalysts, the unexpected recovery in Germany's Year-on-Year Producer Price Index (PPI) for January at-4.4%, surpassing expectations of-6.60%, further bolsters the Euro's strength against the Dollar. The EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) aligns with market expectations at 0.0% for Q4.
EUR/USD is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. Suggesting the pair might enter overbought territory.
Resistance level: 1.0965, 1.1100📉
Support level: 1.0865, 1.0770📈
GBPUSD H4 11 March 2024 GBP/USD, H4 11 March 2024
Pound Sterling experiences a surge against the US Dollar, propelled by discouraging US Unemployment data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports soft wage growth and a notable spike in the Unemployment rate for February. Despite better-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll data, the pessimistic economic outlook fuels expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut before the Bank of England, introducing a potential policy divergence. Market participants anticipate a Fed rate cut in June, while expectations for a BoE rate cut loom from August.
GBP/USD is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. Suggesting the pair might experience technical correction.
Resistance level:1.2905, 1.2995📉
Support level: 1.2785, 1.2710📈
XAUUSD H4 11 March 2024 🔖XAU/USD, H4🔖 11 March 2024
Gold prices enjoy continued gains, propelled by a weakening US Dollar. A series of lacklustre US economic data, coupled with dovish statements from the Federal Reserve, diminish the appeal of the greenback. The focus shifts to forthcoming inflation reports, where a continued decline in US inflation may heighten expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, further supporting gold market demand.
Gold prices are trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. Suggesting the commodity might enter overbought territory.
Resistance level: 2235.00, 2350.00📉
Support level:2150.00, 2080.00📈
DOLLAR_INDX, H4 11 March 2024 💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 11 March 2024
The US Dollar grapples with losses as key employment indicators present a mixed picture. The disappointing unemployment rate and hourly earnings figures contrast with a robust non-farm payroll report, leaving the greenback in a delicate position. Bloomberg reports reveal that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues are moving closer to revising their inflation strategy. Powell emphasises the need for "just a bit more evidence" before considering a shift in the central bank's approach. His recent congressional testimony suggests a potential willingness to cut interest rates in the short term, pending further confirmation of inflation trends toward the 2% target.
The Dollar Index is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. Suggesting the index might enter oversold territory.
Resistance level: 103.70, 104.50📉
Support level:102.10, 101.35📈
🛢 CL OIL, H4 🛢 8 March 2024 🛢 CL OIL, H4 🛢 8 March 2024
Oil prices have faced challenges in sustaining upward momentum, despite factors that traditionally might boost prices, such as the easing strength of the dollar and potential dovish policy shifts from the Federal Reserve. However, there was a slight rebound in oil prices in the latest trading session, attributable to a temporary supply disruption. A critical pipeline, which facilitates the transport of oil from Canada to the U.S., experienced a temporary shutdown, causing a brief uptick in prices due to the immediate impact on supply.
Oil prices have found support at their crucial liquidity zone at near $78.70. Suggests a neutral signal for oil.
Resistance level: 81.20, 84.10📉
Support level: 78.65, 75.20📈
USDCAD H4 8 March 2024 USD/CAD, H4 8 March 2024
The Canadian Dollar experienced a notable resurgence as the market absorbed the hawkish sentiments emanating from the Bank of Canada. In its most recent monetary policy decisions, the BoC opted to maintain its interest rates at 5%, with the Bank rate and deposit rate held at 5.25% and 5%, respectively. The central bank affirmed its commitment to quantitative tightening, citing Canada's robust economic performance compared to other major regions.
USD/CAD is trading lower while currently testing the support level. Suggesting the pair might enter oversold territory.
Resistance level: 1.3535, 1.3620📉
Support level: 1.3430, 1.3345📈
GBP/USD, H4 8 March 2024 GBP/USD, H4 8 March 2024
GBP/USD made significant gains buoyed by optimism surrounding the UK's budget announcement. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, revealed positive forecasts from the Office for Budge Responsibility (OBR), anticipating a 0.80% economic growth in 2024-- 0.50% higher than the previous autumn forecast. Hunt announced a tax rate cut in employees' National Insurance from 10% to 8%, signalling further confidence in the economic trajectory. Despite the tax cut, Hunt expressed assurance that the UK's debt level would stabilise and projected a gradual reduction to 94.3% by 2028-29, down from the current level above 100%.
GBP/USD is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. Suggesting the pair might experience technical correction.
Resistance level:1.2905, 1.3000📉
Support level: 1.2785, 1.2710📈
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 8 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 8 March 2024
The Dollar Index has undergone a substantial decline for a second consecutive session. This can be attributed to the messaging from the Federal Reserve chief during the testimony, indicating that the U.S. central bank is approaching its targeted inflation rate of 2%, and the Fed is on the verge of adjusting its monetary tightening policy. This development has heightened speculation about a potential rate cut in June, significantly impacting the strength of the dollar, causing it to depreciate.
The dollar index has broken another support level, suggesting the dollar is trading with strong
bearish momentum. Suggesting the bearish momentum is gaining.
Resistance level: 103.70, 104.50📉
Support level: 102.00, 101.35📈
CL OIL, H4 7 March 2024CL OIL, H4 7 March 2024
Oil prices have rebounded from their liquidity zone and maintained their previous high levels, forming a double top price pattern. The dovish stance from the Fed's testimony has provided support for higher oil prices. Additionally, the weekly U.S. oil reports falling short of expectations suggest an improvement in oil demand in the U.S., contributing to the positive momentum in the oil market.
Oil prices have rebounded but formed a double-top price pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal for oil prices. Suggests the oil prices remain trading with bullish momentum.
Resistance level: 81.20, 84.10📉
Support level: 78.65, 75.20📈
USD/JPY, H4 7 March 2024 USD/JPY, H4 7 March 2024
The Japanese yen demonstrates resilience, outperforming other currencies amid hawkish expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan. Speculation of a potential interest rate increase surfaces as the country experiences a robust economic recovery. In contrast, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hints at the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US if economic momentum persists, curbing the appeal of the dollar.
USD/JPY is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. Suggesting the pair might enter oversold territory.
Resistance level: 149.40, 150.80📉
Support level: 147.60, 146.35📈
AUD/USD, H4 7 March 202AUD/USD, H4 7 March 2024
AUD/USD benefits from additional US Dollar losses, aligning with a significant pullback in US Treasury yields amid speculation about an anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Ongoing developments in China warrant scrutiny, with potential stimulus measures providing temporary relief. Sustained positive economic indicators and a revival in the Chinese economy are crucial factors for fostering a robust upward trend in AUD/USD, further supported by rising commodity prices. Investors should remain attentive to these dynamics for potential trading signals.
AUD/USD is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. Suggesting the pair might extend its gains after breakout.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6615📉
Support level: 0.6535, 0.6485📈
EURUSD, H4 7 March 2024EUR/USD, H4 7 March 2024
The Euro has strengthened against the dollar, reaching its highest level in over a month, propelled by a weakening dollar. Anticipation surrounds the upcoming ECB interest rate decision, with the market expecting the ECB to maintain a stance of being "in no hurry" to cut interest rates in its policy statement. This sentiment has led the Euro to trade robustly against the dollar.
The EUR/USD pair has broken from its weeks-long sideways trajectory, and a break from the above suggests a bullish bias signal for the pair. Suggesting that bullish momentum is gaining.
Resistance level: 1.0954, 1.1040📉
Support level: 1.0866, 1.0775📈
GBPUSD, H4 7 March 2024GBP/USD, H4 7 March 2024
GBP/USD sustains an upward trajectory, driven by the US Dollar's depreciation. Despite the optimism, uncertainties loom ahead of the UK's 2024 budget announcement before the election, with market anticipation for potential tax rate cuts. Detailed plans remain elusive, prompting investors to vigilantly monitor developments for nuanced trading signals.
GBP/USD is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level.
Suggesting the pair might experience technical correction.
Resistance level:1.2785, 1.2905📉
Support level: 1.2710, 1.2635📈
GBP/JPY Analysis: Potential Retest and Downside MomentumGBP/JPY is currently trading at 189.962, showing signs of potential downside momentum. Here's a concise breakdown:
1. Technical Levels:
- Current Price: 189.962
- Retest Zone: Keep an eye on the 190.050 level for a possible retest.
- Downside Target: Targeting the demand zone around 188.884 for potential support.
2. Trade Setup:
- Short Opportunity: Consider short positions if price confirms resistance near 190.050.
- Risk Management: Set stop-loss orders above the retest level to manage risk.
- Profit Target: Aim for the demand zone at 188.884, adjusting based on price action.
3. Market Context:
- Monitor GBP and JPY-related news for potential catalysts driving price action.
- Assess broader market sentiment and risk appetite for additional insights.
4. Trading Approach:
- Exercise patience and wait for clear confirmation before entering trades.
- Stick to your trading plan and remain disciplined throughout the trade.
5. Adaptation:
- Stay flexible and adjust your strategy as new information becomes available.
- Be prepared to reassess if price action deviates from the anticipated scenario.
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