DXY longTVC:DXY
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the DXY in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a long opportunity. I would see two good entrys on this pair. First would be at the resistance zone around 104.350. Secound entry would be at aournd the Fib 61% or 78% level. I definitly prefer the 61%. This level looks way better for me and would give me more confident too. There's important newsin the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir das DXY im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einem long trade. Ich würde zwei gute Entries bei diesem Paar sehen. Der erste Einstieg wäre in der Widerstandszone um 104.350. Der zweite Einstieg würde bei einem Fib-Niveau von 61% oder 78% liegen. Ich bevorzuge das Fib 61% Level. Dieses Niveau sieht für mich viel besser aus und würde mir auch mehr Selbstvertrauen geben. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es wichtige Neuigkeiten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Meldungen können die Richtung des Charts sehr schnell ändern!
NEWS
USDCAD longFX:USDCAD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the USDCAD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a long opportunity. This trade realy depends on what the dollar is doing tomorrow if we see a strong dollar there shouldn't be something in the way to not get up there.We can also see 6 wicks on the fib61% which shows us that the currency don't want to fall under the level. There's important newsin the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir den USDCAD im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einem long Trade. Dieser Trade hängt größten Teils davon ab, was der Dollar morgen macht. Wenn wir einen starken Dollar sehen, sollte es kein Problem geben dorthin zu gelangen. Wir können auch 6 Dochte auf der Fib61% sehen, was uns zeigt, dass die Währung nicht unter das Niveau fallen will. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es wichtige Neuigkeiten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können sehr schnell die Richtung des Charts ändern!
GBPUSD shortFX:GBPUSD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the GBP/USD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a short opportunity. Today we had a really strong dollar that already led to my first take profit. Now I am looking for another short trade from the Fib 61% or 78% level. If this currency is at one of the levels and you see reactions, you should look where the Dollar (DXY) is when it is getting bullish at the moment, you should definitely enter, otherwise you should wait for the Dollar to show a strong momentum and then look for a short opportunity. There's important news tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir das GBP/USD im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einem short Trade. Heute hatten wir einen starken Dollar, der bereits zu meinem ersten Take Profit führte. Jetzt suche ich nach einem weiteren Short-Trade von dem Fib 61% oder 78%. Wenn diese Währung auf einem der Levels ist und Sie eine Reaktionen sehen, sollten Sie schauen, wo der Dollar (DXY) ist, wenn er im Moment bullisch wird, sollten Sie auf jeden Fall einsteige, ansonsten warten Sie bis der Dollar ein starkes Momentum zeigt und dann sollten sie nach einem short-trade suchen. Morgen gibt es wichtige Nachrichten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können sehr schnell die Richtung ändern!
DXY searching new highsTVC:DXY
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the DXY in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a long opportunity. We have now made a lower high and also a significant bounce of the Fib. DXY also made it through back over the main level 104. 000. Today we had really crazy bullish voluminous moments. There's important news tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction very quickly!
Deutsch:Hey, Händler! Hier haben wir das DXY im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich bin auf der Suche nach einem long Trade. Wir haben jetzt ein tieferes Hoch gemacht und auch einen Sprung auf dem 78% Level des Fib. DXY schaffte es auch, wieder über die Hauptebene 104. 000 zu kommen. Morgen gibt es wichtige Nachrichten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können sehr schnell die Richtung ändern!
You've missed these in 2022: DXY This is definitely not a complete list of events that happened for the year, just a snapshot of the highlights.
What a year it has been for the DXY, starting at around 96.00 and rose to a historic high of 114.75 before retracing back down again. (In comparison, the DXY only rose from 89.65, up to the 96 price level in 2021)
There were many contributing factors to this historic rise in the DXY, and to be fair, a lot of it did not have to do with the performance of the US economy.
On the 21st Feb 2022, Russian President Putin signs a decree declaring the Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic as independent from Ukraine, and, despite international condemnation and sanctions, begins a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
A flight toward reserve currency/commodity saw the commencement of the dollar bull, with the DXY quickly climbing to reach the 100 price level
17th March 2022 , the US Federal Reserve begins on its path to hike interest rates, to combat the inflation rate growth (7.9%)
Toward the end of April , jawboning from Chair Powell, about a 50bps rate hike saw the DXY rocket upward to reach the 104 price level.
In May, with inflation still climbing (8.3%) but GDP now entering into negative territory, the fears regarding a US-led global recession/stagflation begins to mount.
June 2022 , inflation is at 8.6% and the federal reserve has just increased rates by 75bps, taking interest rates to 1.75%
The DXY broke through the key price level of 105 a couple of days after the rate hike.
July 2022, inflation has now climbed to a historic high of 9.1%. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is felt, not just from a conflict perspective, but the increasing cost of energy, commodity, and food.
The Federal Reserve conducted another 75bps rate hike, with the interest rate climbing to 2.50%.
During this period, most major currencies are losing significant ground against the Greenback, especially the Euro and the Yen, causing central banks to embark on massive interventions.
Given that the DXY had been climbing from 96.00 to approach 110 in 8 months, the markets were keenly eyeing the Jackson Hole event in August , anticipating for Chair Powell to signal the possibility of a pivot in the monetary policy path.
But what we got instead was further jawboning about more rate hikes to come, and a reiteration of the FOMC's commitment to fight inflation growth.
This was probably the last straw, as the DXY continued to rocket upward, blasting past 110 to reach the historic high of 114.75 in September, following another rate hike of 75bps from the Feds. Interest rate now stands at 3.25%
Toward the end of September, improving consumer sentiment data showed that despite inflation growth and increasing interest rates, the economic performance of the US has been resilient.
This provided some market confidence that the Federal Reserve could begin to pivot sooner rather than later, which consequently saw the reversal of the DXY.
In October and November, inflation growth begins to indicate a slowdown. However, the Federal Reserve was still increasing rates at 75bps (interest rates were now at 4.00%).
But as talk about terminal rates increases and the anticipation for a slowdown in the scale of rate hikes, the DXY continues to trade lower.
In December , the inflation rate slows down to 7.1% the Federal Reserve's most recent rate hike was only 50bps, the DXY has retraced below 110 and now trades along the 104 price level.
Is this the beginning of the bearish DXY?
(Please put it in the comments if I've left out any key events) And stay tuned for the 2023 outlook!
USDCAD longFX:USDCAD
English: With USD/CAD, I would look for a bullish move upwards. BUT tomorrow is very important news for the CAD, so it all depends on how the news will be. . . If the CAD news are good, USDCAD will decrease, if the CAD messages are bad, USDCAD will increase.
Deutsch: Beim USD/CAD würde ich nach einer bullischen Bewegung nach oben suchen. ABER morgen sind sehr wichtige Nachrichten für den CAD, also hängt alles davon ab, wie die Nachrichten sein werden... Wenn die CAD-Nachrichten gut sind, sinkt USDCAD, wenn die CAD-Nachrichten schlecht sind, steigt USDCAD.
Using HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence (update)I could be dead wrong with what I'm about to say but trying to take a short even at 1800 doesn't match up with the rate hike next week.
Tomorrow's JOBS # is the final piece of the puzzle; we'll know what's going on once the dust settles.
But if the criteria (see image) is met, I'm definitely interested in going long into next Wednesday (FOMC).
How to use HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence!During deflation investors prioritize investment-grade bonds, defensive stocks (those of consumer goods companies), dividend-paying stocks, and cash.
Current asset flows, including the slide in oil indicates this regime allocation is in play (see attached image - below)
In terms of XAU:
- It has already been repriced higher after less-hawkish comments from Powell. The new rate of change (lower) can now be established for the overall down trend
- Going into DEFLATION, your gold is likely to be “deflate” in price because the logic is: hard times cause people to sell their assets (gold, silver etc.) to make ends meet
- There is a greater incentive for people who understand what's happening (like us!) to shot XAU at these higher prices or get in cash/bonds in order to buy the dip in equities down the road once Fed policy actually hints towards loosening.
The current narrative around interest rates is “higher for longer” = still no signal they will stop hiking which = it's still valid to look for shorts on XAU and stocks
GBP/AUD upside ready for next week...Recently we have finally seen some rest bite for the pound after looming USD data. Other instruments are markets have also somewhat corrected and as we can see from GBP/AUD we are picking up some momentum to the upside with targets of 1.8400 for next week.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Bitcoin Day Trade Setups, Scalping Entries🖥️ We have determined there is a 65% chance Bitcoin will RISE from our current entry point.
📉 LONG - BTC : $17,810 📉
💵 Length of trade: we are expecting BTC to hit a $400 scalp, with a high end of $550 - minimum expectation $250.
🕰️ Duration of trade: we are expecting this to occur within a couple hours of market open Thursday. But we can see a fast spike up to 18k at anytime prior.
📊🖥️ INDICATOR SHOWN ON CHART : Scot Signal Indicator
EURUSD before FED CPI news passed yesterday, but the interest rate decision is today.
This is the most important news and we will see reaction of all assets.
Expectations to rise have been met. We’re now monitoring for reversal grounds.
Another rise and leaving a rejection wick will be the best possible option.
And let’s not forget that the ECB’s interest rate decision is due tomorrow.
EURUSD Trade Breakdown Hello traders
-Today we had a trade on EUR/USD which is currently in profit due to the NEWS event.
- In the next steps, we will break down this trade and explain why it is risky to trade if you have strong news.
- Chart breakdown
1) On the left side you can see that the major low has not been broken, therefore the price has the potential to continue bullish.
2) Negative confirmations are bearish reactions and big wicks that you can see at the end of momentum.
3) The price is in an overall corrective PA, the structure is more bullish than bearish because we have not broken the major low.
4) But be careful with such trades because we had a lot of negative confirmations, you have to breakdown the whole chart and then make a decision for the trade.
WARNING!
-Strong news was present here. The news was on our side in this case. But be careful when trading the NEWS event, because the main reason why some prop trade firms do not allow you to trade the NEWS event is "slippage". If "slippage" happens there is a chance that the price will "forget" you SL and you will lose more than you should have.
-That was all about this part, if you want more education like this, don't forget to leave a like and write us a comment if something is not clear to you.
EURUSD before CPIToday’s the first important news this week.
If you don’t trade aggressively just wait for the news to pass and then look for good entries.
We’re looking at possible H1 trend reversal from the resistance zone. And we’re also expecting pullback from the zone which to confirm the entry point.
Rejection wicks in both directions are possible, that’s why pre entries are not recommended.
Bitcoin Scalp Signal for Day Trading🖥️ We have determined there is a 60% chance Bitcoin will RISE from our current entry point.
📉 LONG - BTC : $16,965 📉
💵 Length of trade: we are expecting BTC to hit a 200 scalp, with a high end of $350 - minimum expectation $200.
🕰️ Duration of trade: we are expecting this to occur within 5 hours of this signal for the Min. Profit Target. Then we see this trade playing out till U.S. markets open Wednesday.
📊🖥️ INDICATOR SHOWN ON CHART : Scot Signal Indicator
The West Takes Aim at Russian Oil MarketsAs tensions continue to escalate between the West and Russia, a new development has emerged in the ongoing struggle over oil shipments. The West has been using shipping insurance as a tool to put pressure on Russia, but this strategy has had limited success so far. Insurance is only available for shipments valued at less than $60 a barrel, and as it happens, Russian oil already trades just below this cap. As a result, it's not yet clear how much of an impact this will have on oil prices.
But this raises an interesting question: why would the West set the cap at this level? The answer, it seems, is that they've calculated it in such a way that it provides just enough incentive for Putin to keep pumping oil. This is because the West is understandably concerned that Putin might choose to remove Russian oil from the international market, causing prices to rise significantly. And if global oil prices do rise much above where they currently are, the situation could become much more heated.
This is just one example of the complex dance that goes on between petronations and the West. On the one hand, the West has the ability to put pressure on petronations by limiting their access to the global market. But on the other hand, petronations have the power to put significant pressure on the West via energy prices. So it's a delicate balancing act, and it's not always clear who has the upper hand.
But what does this mean for the future? Well, it's difficult to say for certain, but it's clear that the West is trying to find a way to put pressure on Russia without causing a major disruption in the global oil market. And if they're successful, it could have significant implications for the ongoing struggle between the West and Russia.
Of course, there are many other factors at play here, and it's impossible to predict exactly how things will unfold. But one thing is clear: the discussion around this issue is only going to become more heated as global oil prices continue to fluctuate. So it's definitely a topic worth keeping an eye on in the coming months and years.
Bitcoin Scalping Signal for Day Trading🖥️ We have determined there is a 60% chance Bitcoin will Fall from our current entry point.
📉 SHORT - BTC : $17,210 📉
💵 Length of trade: we are expecting BTC to hit a 225 scalp, with a high end of $325, and a minimum expectation of $150.
🕰️ Duration of trade: we are expecting this to occur within 1.5 hours - 4 hours. Then we see a maximum duration of 14 hours.
📊🖥️ INDICATOR SHOWN ON CHART : Scot Signal Indicator
WTI USOIL weekly review outlook analysis to premarket
Closing last month as a bearish month and bullish week. The long term objective remain 6172.5 Aug 2021 Low.
Closing last week as a bullish week and closing inside the weekly bearish FVG. I will love to see price use that to push price lowwer but Bias can just be base on one Time frame alone that's why we need Top Down analysis. Monday closing as indecisive day after taking out old weekly low purge and revert method making price to come up into the old highs with the Daily FVG making Thursday the height of the day.
There is a lot of internal dialogue I'm having with myself looking at this chart and it is all making sense bc of the experience I have hsd in this same type of price delivery. I am Bearish and I am also having it at the back of my mind I am bullish… why ??? I can see the IOF on 1hr is bearish for now but I won't be surprised to. See price turn upward after taking out the sellside Liquidity and we do have most of the High/Low impact NEWS 📰 towards the end of the week (I feel like most of the volatility might be towards the end of the week).
Stick around as we learn more together… and I show you more about my trading here… thank you for coming this far with me it means a lot .
EURUSD before NFPUS jobs data coming up today. The news will cause movement so be careful.
Buys should be closed because the expected rise to 1,0540-60 has already been completed.
There will be an option for new aggressive buy trades on correction or after the news.
We expect the movement to end and reverse around 1,06.