🤖 #BTCLIVE - 15.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 15.08 - #IDEA 🤖
Snapshot:
Short-Term
30:70- Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term
50:50 - Bullish:Bearish
Technical Analysis:
Bullish Scenario:
Alot of bearish sentiment, mainly short term would suggest a move down to $23.6k especially with the 3rd rejection from $25k andsell orders coming in - there could be a strong rally at this position to fend off breaking down on the ascending wedge which would likely drive price for another test of $25k this would be incredibly bullish and somewhat of a make or break push. A break and hold above $25k puts $27k and $30k as realistic targets.
Bearish Scenario:
Short term movement down to $23.6k is likely for the local support although there could be a lot of defense at this position a breakdown and confirmed retest can see price sing quite quickly to $22.6k where the next strongest zone of support lies, max pain in the move can still push us down to $20k region which is where the bottom of this long term channel/range lies.
Bullish Factors:
+ Weekly Pivot already filled
+ 200EMA is supporting
+20 & 50 DEMA doming to support at the key trendline support
+ Transfer Volume turned positive
+ Active Addresses turned positive
Bearish Factors:
- Bearish Divergence on the 5min
- Bearish divergence on the 4hr
- Bearish Divergence on the 1hr
- Restesting resistance
- Strong Sell Orders
- Broken through 20 and 50 EMA
- Hard rejection from 25k for 3rd time
- Exchange Netflow Total turned negative
- Liquidation turned negative
Key News:
Bull:
+ ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment market wide
+ 💥Revolut gets approval to offer #Bitcoin and crypto in the European Economic Area.
+ Judge grants Ripple’s request to review videos of SEC officials (cryptopanic.com)
+#Crypto exchange Gate.io has been granted a virtual asset custodial services license in Hong Kong.
+ Europe’s largest independent tyre re-treader, Vaculug, will accept #Bitcoin for payment!
Bear:
- $ETH: The “Merge” Protocol Upgrade Will Not Lower Ethereum’s Gas Fees
- Hackers printed 1.2 billion $AUSD on the Acala Network through an exploit.
- Brazilian #crypto lending platform BlueBenx halts withdrawals following a $32 million hack.
Metrics:
Exchange
- Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to rise, it indicates higher selling pressure.
- Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.
Miners
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
/ Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
On-Chain
+ aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom.
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
+ Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses.
+ Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has decreased by 31.00% compared to yesterday.
+ Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has decreased by 13 .00% compared to yesterday.
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 26.00% compared to yesterday.
Sentiment
+ Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
Derivatives
+ Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders.
+ Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers.
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend - Last Value: 9,142,523,051.97 24H%: -8% 7D%: -9%
- Liquidation - 42921463.65 of short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
NEWS
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 13.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 13.08 - #IDEA 🤖
Snapshot:
Short-Term
40:60- Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term
60:40 - Bullish:Bearish
Technical Analysis:
Bullish Scenario:
Defending against this double top and holding above ideally $24k.1 but mainly $23.6k to not confirm this double top would be the most bullish play we can hope for - this would likely require alot of volume to come in and would create quite a high bullish conviction given alot of the bearish markers. Immediate targets in this case would be $25k and then $27k - although don't be too fooled by the short term bearish sentiment a break out here could be absolutely massive with a realistic $30k on the cards.
Bearish Scenario:
A slightly more favourable outcome atm, given that we are filling out a double top pattern quite nicely along with a confirmed bearish divergence perfectly on the 2nd top. immediate target if we break down on $24k will be the key support at $23.6k, then $23.1k and then $22.6k - this could quite easily continue down.
Bullish Factors:
+ 20, 50 DEMA in close proximity for support
+ Holding key support and $24k support holding
+ On 50 EMA and HMA and support
+ Bullish CME Gap closing in
+ Exchange Reserve turned positive
+ Transfer Volume turned positive
+ Active Addresses turned positive
+ Relatively minimal FUD
Bearish Factors:
- Poor weekend volume
- Double Top pattern in play
- Bearish Divergence confirmed
- Strong upper resistance
- $25k resistance
- RSi Pullback Signal
- Bearish POC & Future Weekly Pivot forming
- aSOPR turned negative
- Taker Buy Sell Ratio turned negative
Key News:
Bull:
+ ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment market wide
+ "We are fully ready to regulate cryptocurrencies, says CFTC Chairman" t.co
+ 💥NEW: Union Bank of the Philippines to enable users buy #Bitcoin and crypto from its app!
Bear:
- SEC going after hedge funds for crypto
- France inflation reaches 6.1%, the highest it’s seen in 37 years.
- Spain inflation reaches 10.8%, the highest it’s seen in 38 years.
Metrics:
Exchange
+ Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure.
+ Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are low compared to the 7-day average. Lower deposits can be interpreted as lower selling pressure.
Miners
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
/ Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
On-Chain
- aSOPR - More investors are selling at a profit. In the middle of a bull market, it can indicate a market top.
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
+ Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses.
+ Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by 14.00% compared to yesterday.
+ Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 22.00% compared to yesterday.
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 4.00% compared to yesterday.
Sentiment
+ Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
Derivatives
+ Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders.
- Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers.
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend.
+ Liquidation - 65354916.17 of short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
FLUXUSDTHello, I hope we have a profitable week
It should be noted that a higher ceiling has not yet been formed for us. But the divergence of RSA in different time frames cannot be ignored!
Even if we don't consider the pattern in the daily time frame as a bearish wedge
(because it has taken a long time in terms of waves)
The downward trend line has been broken upwards and the zones have been maintained in the correctional movements.
In my opinion, the probability of reaction to the range of $0.4 is high and if the price does not fall below the specified ranges.
And in the upward trend, if it is above the yellow area ($0.511), the upward trend is likely to extend to higher areas.
We would be very happy if you share your thoughts with us.
Thank you for your support (:
CPI price action trap zone Following yesterday's exciting price action movements, there always follows a difficult period when the market needs to establish tradable levels. the EUR has fallen into consolidation on multiple pairs but EURAUD is the first to start trapping traders long and short. I'm sitting on my hands unfortunately until this plays out. As a technical trader my skills are only useful when there is consistency in price points, which are difficult to find after oversized moves like we've just seen.
There is a void below 1.45100 and obviously the area parallel to the large move so I'll let the battle happen before taking a position.
TWTR UPTRENDING DESPITE EARININGSNYSE:TWTR
has been running for 4 weeks with a RSI now over 80%
By comparison, META is sideways.
Musk just liquidated $6B in TSLA to fund a contingency
in case the court forces the contract to purchase at $54.20
www.cnbc.com
This may cause buying pressure at the present price
far below the contract price. Potentially a short
squeeze could augment the price action.
This may be a good time for a long entry on TWTR.
Potential trade on EURUSDAlthough, EURUSD isn't giving us any new highs or lows, today we may actually have a trade.
There are some USD news coming out (Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy) that could affect price action.
If we see price rejecting the resistance again, then we can look for short trades with first targets at 1,0121.
BATUSDTHello again
Currently, we are at the bottom of the long-term ascending channel, the channel has not broken down, the ranges have been maintained in the corrective trends.
As long as the price range of $0.2919 is maintained, there is a possibility of completing the head and shoulder pattern at the end of the downward trend.
Don't forget that in order to form an upward trend, the downward trend line must be broken upwards and the failure must be consolidated.
We would be happy to hear your comments(;
⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 04.08 ⚡️⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 04.08 ⚡️
60:40
Bullish:Bearish
Current Status:
At the bottom of a symmetrical triangle - bouncing twice recently with relatively level volume showing distinct signs of ranging. Longer term Bullish Divergence is now in play. Unfilled CME Gap sitting at 23.7k to 23.9k along with the POC, both bullish. On a more macro level currently sat in the middle of a longer term range that is effectively a bear flag with a high of $25.5k and a low of $21.5k. Expecting to see a break out of this consolidation triangle over the next 24hours - direction unconfirmed.
News:
- Coinbase X BlackRock Partner for institutional investment > Bullish on BTC & ETH
- Coinbase starts Ethereum Staking > Bullish on BTC & ETH
- META introduces Coinbse Wallets to platform > Bullish on BTC
- Options Expiry Friday > Heavy Volatility
- China x Taiwan FUD/Conflict > Bearish on all markets
On-Chain
Growing supply in older age bands - This signifies that both HODLers be HODLing, AND that they are not spending their cold storage coins.
Declining supply in younger age bands - literally the equal and opposite reaction.
Generally speaking - this is what we want and are starting to see for a bear market floor
Bullish Scenario
Breaking and retesting $23.4k will see a short term target of approx. $24k and a bigger term target of $25.5k
Bearish Scenario
A Break down and retest of $22.7k will likely start the descent to $21.5k at the lower range of the longer term - breaking down on that will spell major bloodshed.
THE MOST IMPORTANT FOREX FUNDAMENTALS 📰
Hey traders,
Even though I am a pure technician and I rely only on technical analysis when I trade, we can not deny the fact that fundamentals are the main driver of the financial markets.
In this post, we will discuss the most important fundamentals that affect forex market.
📍Unemployment rate.
Unemployment rate reflects the percentage of people without a job in a selected country or region.
Rising unemployment rate usually signifies an unhealthy state of the economy and negatively affects the currency strength.
📍Housing prices.
Housing prices reflect people's demand for housing. Rising rate reflects a healthy state of the economy, strengthening purchasing power of the individuals and their confidence in the future.
Growing demand for housing is considered to be one of the most important drivers in the economy.
📍Inflation.
Inflation reflects the purchasing power of a currency.
It is usually measured by evaluation of the price of the selected basket of goods or services over some period.
High inflation is usually the primary indicator of the weakness of the currency and the unhealthy state of the economy.
📍Monetary policy.
Monetary policy is the actions of central banks related to money supply in the economy.
There are two main levers: interests rates and bank reserve requirements.
Higher interest rates suppress the economy, making the currency stronger. Lower interests rates increase the money supply, making the economy grow but devaluing the national currency.
📍Political discourse.
Political discourse is the social, economical and geopolitical policies of the national government.
Political ideology determines the set of priorities for the ruling party that directly impacts the state of the economy.
📍Payrolls and earnings.
Payroll reports reflect the dynamic of the creation of new jobs by the economy, while average earnings show the increase or decrease of the earnings of the individuals.
Growing earnings and payrolls positively affect the value of a national currency and signify the expansion of the economy.
Pay closes attention to these fundamentals and monitor how the market reacts to that data.
What fundamentals do you consider to be the most important?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Do you think there will be an uptrend or a downtrend!? (XVSUSDT)Hi(: Have a profitable day
Do you think there will be an uptrend or a downtrend!?!?
We must not forget that we have an event in Toronto on July 6, but on the other hand, the Ingulf area should not be ignored!
In such a situation, the best thing to do is to wait. If the price movement is higher than the price range of $7, there is a possibility that the price will increase to the blue range.
But if the upward trend line of orange is broken downwards, the possibility of price reduction to the yellow range is not out of mind at all!
We are very happy to share your comments with
DOCKUSDTHi dear friends
In your opinion, the possibility of forming a head and shoulder pattern is not reversed!?!
On the daily time frame, it has reached an important range, we have a positive divergence of the RSI, the bulls have consumed the ranges nicely in the uptrend.
The possibility of a reaction in the yellow range of $0.01592 is very high. By observing the specified loss limit, there is a possibility of forming an upward trend up to the white range ($0.02756).
We would be very happy to hear your comments
matic make a bull flag pattern and it loks like it will move upmatic will move after makeing bull flag pattern and on 4EMA indicator to take a long position
NAS100 Daily Outlook | July 28Hi All,
After FOMC news drive yesterday, WHAT ELSE?
Here are my thoughts;
1. There is a lot of noise to the left hand side so am capping my profit target for buys from 12565 to 12667 zones.
2. Buying mostly today is also confirmed by my WICK FILL play (join my live session to access my 90% winrate playbook) but traders must not expect price to move aggressively to 12900 rather focus on the closest resistance level
3. There are chances that price can drop up until 12303/12174 levels in near term and this is because;
a. We have a strong support level around 12303
b. Previous day's bar does not have a bottom wick hence has the tendency to draw price back to itself.
Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment session.
To learn more about my favorite setups and how to perfectly harness pips using them, join my live streaming today.
Daily Live Trading session at 8:45AM EST/ 4:45PM GST
Pairs: EURUSD / NAS100 / GER30
-Kings.
⚡️ #BTC OUTLOOK - 27.07 ⚡️⚡️ #BTC OUTLOOK - 27.07 ⚡️
Showing strength at the bottom of the channel as expected to drive up to approx. $22k region likely with in next 24 hours prior to the FOMC announcement where expecting a natural FUD sell off along with the big sell walls sat at $22k.
Bull Play:
Long to $21.9k - re enter at $20k region
Bear Play
Short at $22k region to $20k region - pre set sells as it could be a flash dump
EURUSD before FEDToday we have FED Interest Rate decision, the most important news right now.
A strong USD is expected but in order to make an entry we need to see some confirmation.
The main scenario is a move up at first, price collecting some SL orders and then leaving a rejection wick. This will give us a chance to sell.
This is only one way to take advantage of the situation today. We don't recommend trading before the news!
COINBASE What happens to a dream deferred?
Part Two of the Qualitative and Quantitative NASDAQ:COIN analysis.
Quantitative
My updated levels for Coinbase are 63.5 and 53.5 , these are support levels and potential Short targets.
I added the 105 level for balance, Long target but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.
Tangible Book Value Range is still the same: 35.22 to 23.48
Net Current Asset Value: 11.48
The price has reached an upper wall of the channel I traced from around November 2021. Considering the volume Coinbase trades with, I think it can easily break through this wall, whether if I think it should is another topic.
I've linked my previous Coinbase ideas below, if anyone is interested in previous levels.
Qualitative
I will list the events and at the end make a conclusion as to why this Qualitative analysis matters, and how it should affect the NASDAQ:COIN price.
Coinbase in the news, July 21
July 21st 2022 - Former Coinbase product manager charged with tipping off co-conspirator about tokens that were about to be listed on the exchange.
This is commonly known as insider trading . Link to the official Press Release is attached below.
www.justice.gov
This was originally brought to light by a Twitter user Cobie, on April 12th 2022.
Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase in a twitter thread has revealed that since April they've investigated the alleged misconduct and provided the information to law enforcement. Happy ending, Coinbase did the right thing. Investigations take time, especially when multiple agencies are involved, if anything the timeline from April to July 21st of Investigation to Indictment is very quick.
For those of us following the crypto industry, often hear the word Regulation , we understand it's just a matter of time until the industry gets regulated.
It is funny that Coinbase in doing the right thing and reporting insider trading, led to the SEC officially naming several Coinbase listed tokens as Securities. What will this result in, I can't tell.
I linked the official SEC Press Release below.
Tokens Affected:
AMP, RLY, DDX, XYO, RGT, LCX, POWR, DFX, KROM
Regarding the DFX and KROM tokens, they do not show up in Coinbase symbol search, I assume they're no longer listed.
www.sec.gov
Conclusion
Coinbase has been struggling with financials, looking at the chart, it is clear that a lot of value has been lost. But, Coinbase has also done a lot to optimize it's operations since last quarter. Earnings Report is on August 9th, and I intend to read through the 10-Q.
Coinbase listed tokens being named as securities in the SEC report, SEC has mentioned before that currently it does not consider BTC and ETH to be securities, this might change. I anticipate Coinbase will revise it's listing framework, stricter rules, stricter due diligence. Either way, short term effects will be clear when the market opens today.
This is my Thesis, targets are purely hypothetical based on my analysis.
This is NOT Investment and/or Trading Advice.
Happy Trades!
❤️ If you enjoy my ideas , Please like/comment , It means a lot, Thank You! ❤️
Next move on EURUSD pending This week we're about to see the FED Interest Rate decision.
This will most likely cause some moves and bring some trading opportunities.
On EURUSD we could expect that to push price above 1,0278 and take it up to our sell zone.
That's where we will look for possible short positions.
The target will then be a breakout below 1,0000!
COST news should cause drop on 7/8I was intuitively alerted that there might be news that takes COST down soon, and lo and behold I hear they have sales number being released tomorrow. SO, I decided to dowse on it to see what I come up with. The result is that COST should be down tomorrow around 7.25% or so and it is a long/buying opportunity. We'll see how it goes.
⚡️ #ETH/USD - The Merge-ereum ⚡️#PEOPLESCHOICE
#ETH
Probably the most talked about and promising assets to hold rn, it is pretty hard to go anywhere in crypto atm with out getting slapped with some Mergereum news. although it is what the market needs right now, so no complaints here- with huge consistent volume coming in them Whales are accumulating. As per some handy on-chain data the larget ETH buy in 7 months has been made at $1.7b which is a whole lotta ETH at these levels.
The big story is the Merge - whilst its not in the roadmap for Sept. it is a prediction of one of the devs there.
Projection on chart are based on the perfect scenario - ie no more global meltdowns or FUD and is ultimately subject to BTC. Expecting a retrace with TD9 forming, trendline & price resistance as well as a Bearish peak on the Alpha Wave.