Get started

NEWS

4-8th April Economic Outlook!Hey traders, Today we're going to be looking through this weeks economic calendar. We're going to look at what data is going to be released and what really is going to be affecting the market. I will also share my bias on the different pairs and the different data being released to see if any of these are going to be tradeable or whether or not we should just kind of stay out of the market during these times of uncertainty. I hope you enjoy this outlook into the week ahead. It's going to be a quiet week compared to recent times unless we get any breaking news coming out of Russia and Ukraine. In terms of economic data releases, it is going to be a little bit quieter than usual. Monday - 4th April We don't have too much happening in our favor on Monday. Here the biggest release is the unemployment change for Spain. While it may move the euro just a little bit, I'm not seeing a whole lot of tradeable opportunity. I think Monday is going to be a lot better just to kind of sit back and watch to see what happens. Tuesday - 5th April On Tuesday, we get a little bit more exciting. We have a fair bit of data being released for us. 🟨 AIG Construction Index Early in the morning we have the AUD, AIG construction index. This index indicates how well the construction industry is actually running at the moment, it's not something we're going to trade, but rather it's good insight as looking ahead into the PMI, into our employment rates and then overall trade balance in the future. It is a good indication of how well the economy is running confined into that construction sector as it is a very large employer in Australia. 🟥 Cash Rate Coming in a little bit later in the day, we have a very large, definitely tradeable event with the RBA rate statement and their overall cash rate. The forecast is for it to remain at 0.10%. I believe this will remain at 0.10%. I'm not expecting any shock announcements. However, in the event we do get a shock number come through, it's going to be a very volatile time and a possible opportunity to be able to catch a lot of pips on the Aussie dollar. If we do get a shock event on this, it will move for a few hours prior to entering into the European market so keep an eye on this release. ⬜ EUR Looking ahead, we do get a lot of services PMI coming out for the euro, but not really looking to be trading that. I'd rather use that as an indication of how well the economy is running, looking ahead into future releases. 🟥 ISM Services PMI The biggest standout is the ISM services PMI for the US dollar. Obviously the market is forecasting growth in the services industry. I'm not too sure how well that's going to stand. It's not something I usually trade. However, given the previous data releases, I'm unsure if it's going to be able to maintain its bullish forecast. We've been told that construction spending is down, the manufacturing PMI, while still expanding has slower growth than what it was first anticipated. Our nonfarm employment change was negative. There's a lot of different areas suggesting that we may not be as hawkish as what the forecast says. So I do expect this to come in a little less than what we're looking at currently but only time will tell. Wednesday - 6th April 🟧 Crude Oil Inventories This is going to be an interesting one. This is something I've been looking to try to look to how it affects the US dollar, but rather something I'm just overly intrigued about given the current circumstances in the world. 🟥 FOMC Meeting Minutes FOMC meeting minutes is always volatile one. it is good to have a look through what the meeting discussed and how it went on. For users that don't know how this affects the market FOMC meeting minutes is a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Thursday - 7th April 🟨 AIG Service Index Another AUD index release. We have the construction index earlier in the week, now we have the services index coming out. Once again it's not something I trade, however, it is fantastic insight into retail sales data. When we do get those retail sales announced next week, we can use this services index to give us a pivotal action point on where those retail sales are aiming, which is why I've noticed that in today's economic calendar, it's worth noting because we can make a preemptive play on the retail sales data release. 🟨 Retail Sales The Euro retail sales expecting a little bit of an increase with the overall potential panic buying happening across Europe. It's going to be interesting to see what happens here. We massively missed the forecast in March. However, it is looking like they've been a little bit bearish while still forecasting growth of 0.6%. Banks are no longer aiming for the real high numbers, I think we're going to come in maybe around 1%, but I'm not putting money on that prediction, it is rather an assumption. I will have to do some more research and I recommend you do you same as well, having the services PMI come through this week from all the different countries within Europe is going to be a great insight into how well the economy is actually performing on the retail sales front. Friday - 8th April Nothing worth mentioning on Friday, the week is going to come to a slow stop. As I said, it is a bit of a slow week this week, only a few different data points worth noting, so we will end the week quite quiet. Obviously, we might have a bit more movement on the fundamental side of things next week but this week looks like it's lining to be a great technical analysis trading week. Always keep your eye on the whole Russia and Ukraine situation because anything can happen there and the market will react accordingly. Do keep your news streams live and in depth as you don't want to be caught off guard by anything going on over there. These are personally just my outlooks having a look into the future week. Do note the data to keep an eye on when they are released and of course you can use the TradingView calendar as well to keep note on that. Have a fantastic trading week, I wish you all the best success.
Education
by the5erstrading
Cardano Price Analysis — March 25ADA has finally snapped the $1 barrier and has tapped the $1.191 top following a four-day parabolic bull run. However, the cryptocurrency has retraced to the $1.100 support area, as bulls ran out of steam near the $1.200 resistance. That said, the seventh-largest cryptocurrency has put the 100 EMA below it, securing a goodish bias despite the recent retrace. As we head into the weekend, I expect a mild bearish continuation towards the $1.050 support. After that, I expect to see a bullish rebound to the $1.200 - $1.250 range. Meanwhile, our resistance levels are $1.150, $1.200, and $1.250, and our support levels are $1.100, $1.050, and $1.000. Total Market Capitalization: $2.01 trillion Cardano Market Capitalization: $38.4 billion Cardano Dominance: 1.9% Market Rank: #7
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by Mr_Wogbe_Alex
$PYPL Looking for a Breakout to fill Gap down from $160+ to $200Let's start with the Tech side of things: 1. Has flipped the PARSAR bullish on the daily and is about to flip it bullish on the weekly 2. Accum/Distri has begun to climb sideways and upwards on the daily and the weekly after being down since Oct last year 3. MACD is been flipped bullish on the Daily and is about to be flipped bullish on the weekly This is just a few of the technicals that have turned bullish in the last few weeks, there are several more. Analysts: 1. MoffettNathanson's Lisa Ellis raised her buy recommendation to $190 this past week 2. Deutsche Bank's Bryan Keane raised his buy recommendation to $200 Why are they Bullish? Keane met with Paypal's CFO John Rainey this past week, following which he wrote that: "Beyond new product initiatives, PYPL also stands to benefit from expanding into China later in the year (catalyst for ) as well as through increased omni-channel capabilities as it integrates card based solutions and Zettle." Zettle by PayPal is its point-of-sale solution; its maker was bought by PayPal in 2018. Ellis wrote that she believes the stock is very attractively priced, and that she " upside from the strong U.S. eBay growth (27% in 4Q21), a macro recovery in China and other international markets, and the rollout of new services, including , crypto investing, and bill payment."
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by StockGuild
$SPY Clear Breakout Continues Monday Possibly into Wednesday$SPY has been on an absolute tear the last few business days and for good reason. For the most part the interest rate hikes, war in Ukraine and the "New" Covid subvariants from Europe are all baked into the price and the tide has turned, there are now more bearish than bullish people which means its a time to buy. The uncertainty surrounding the markets have indeed tapered off. I expect stocks like $PYPL $MULN and Tech Electronic stocks to gain back considerable ground. Not to mention on the tech side of things the $SPY has broken the key resistance at the 50MA and 200MA and is about to break through the Ichimoku Cloud.
AMEX:SPYLong
by StockGuild
4
$PYPL Clears the way for a breakout to the Upside PT $200A year after PayPal adopted the crypto market and allowed users to receive and use crypto for goods, PayPal has returned to its Pre-Covid levels that most tech companies have recently returned to after seeing an extraordinary last two years. Now in a clear uptrend with the stock market and crypto heading back up to breakout levels I anticipate PayPal to follow suite and gain considerable ground over the next few weeks. My current PT is $180-$200 I've bought May 20th $150 Calls in anticipation of this. GLTU All
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by StockGuild
Short Term Profit Trade Idea - Check Stop Loss and Take Profit!Sentiment: Bearish (short term) Entry Price: Orange Line Horizontal Target Price: $42,000 Take Profit Price: $42,500 Stop Loss: $45,100 (just above resistance) *using Pionex reverse leverage grid robot, which lets me lock up my BTC and loan 5x USDT for my trade. I control the amount of grids and profit/loss per grid….highly recommend. Switching over to Margin grid as soon as BTC bounces off the support of $42K. From $42K, we are looking at target price of $50K-$56K with new support at $45K. Buy Dips and Eat Chips.
Short
by Fabreezio
USDJPY BREAK AND TEST Usdjpy technical analysis: h1 chart: price is above 200 hour sma and has tested a support zone (highlighted in orange) that corresponds at 0.382 fibonacci retracement from the last impulse. The pair is in a general uptrend in bigger timeframes as h4 and daily. There are good chances that usdjpy can push higher towards the main resistance, already tested two times. Pay attention to news of tuday on pending home sales and durable good orders for USA. Use a proper money management
Long
by Dragon_Investments
2
Chronicles of Stress, Iran and Oil,Stock Market and the FedEveryone on this planet seems to know about the current situation around Ukraine and Russia, so we will not retell the latest news and events. We only note that there is always a chance to stop the escalation. However, from the position of game theory in the current situation, it is more profitable to be a pessimist, because you will either be right or gladly wrong. But back to market realities. We have already written more than once that the main reference points are oil and gold. So yesterday, both assets updated local highs. And oil has generally updated its highs since 2014. Which means that we are still at the stage of deterioration. Recall that oil and gold prices have inflated mainly due to the expectation of a war, and its absence is a reason for a serious price correction. Moreover, a serious reason for sales may soon appear on the oil market: negotiations with Iran seem to be moving towards a happy ending. And this, in turn, means an increase in supply in the oil market. The stock market continues to be under pressure. And his future looks very bleak. Even if we are all lucky, and the topic of war is, if not closed, then postponed, which will formally be a reason for rising prices in the US stock market, the attention of the markets will immediately switch to the March meeting of the Fed and optimism will quickly give way to despondency. In general, selling in the US stock market has been and remains the basic trading idea for us.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
On the Rising Oil Prices Patterns and Reasons for SellingWe already wrote that the level of geopolitical tension is now easiest to assess not even by the usual VIX Index (aka Fear Index), but by the dynamics of oil and gold prices. So yesterday, both assets were growing, hinting that we are entering the next local peak. But imagine that common sense has not gone away. He is here, he is with us, and no one is going to start fighting either globally or locally. And after that, let's ask ourselves the question: "How fair is the current price of oil?" Yes, in 2020-2021, OPEC+ confidently provided an imbalance in the oil market in favor of an artificial shortage of the asset. Which naturally pushed oil prices up. Then in the fall of 2021, Europe, and then the world, was covered by an energy crisis. Oil, being a basic energy asset, could not pass by and quite naturally grew in price. The start of 2022 is the most powerful information attack at the global level on the subject of war between Russia and Ukraine. Which is fraught, for example, with sanctions against Russia and its hydrocarbons. Since Russia produces 10+ mb/d of oil, i.e. over 10% of the global supply on the market, the growth of the asset again looks natural and justified. And everything seems to be logical and natural. And under the worst-case scenario, the trends will clearly continue and intensify. But back to the assumption that the world has not gone mad. Let's take the position of optimists. So, in this case, it will be necessary to start at least to remove the "war premium" from the price of oil. And this is over $20 per barrel (see the dynamics of oil prices from December 2021 to the current time). Winter is coming to an end, and the Olympics are already over. That is, the energy crisis is rapidly losing its relevance: no one froze, there was enough gas for everyone, which means that there were fewer reasons to hysteria, to put it mildly. And don't forget about OPEC+. Since August 2021, production has increased by 400K b/d every month. That is, the supply on the market has already increased by 3+ million b/d. This is what we are for. And to the fact that you can take advantage of the current situation and earn. The sale of oil should give at least 20-30 dollars of earnings per barrel. Well, if the pessimistic scenario works out, then there will be no time for losses on this transaction, because there will be more important problems.
TVC:UKOILShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Apple (Short) PositionNow I am not completely sold on going short on Apple. However, follow the puzzle that is the stock market, my guess with negative press on every other FAANG stock, Apple will be the last piece of the puzzle. Something wrong in Apple's supply chain, update backfires, etc. anything can happen and betting that it will. Today, German regulators are investigating Tesla for a malfunction with their autonomous functions in their new Teslas. Why now do German regulator begin their investigation, my assumption is that people in power want to see the FAANGs drop to rebalance the rest of the market to brace for FED interest rate hikes. March is going to be fun. I am short Apple for now (3 weeks), yet I am hopeful the market will hold on but I am prepared for the blood that will be the next couple of weeks. It also doesn't help that crypto market has dropped almost 10% over the weekend, which does not lead me to believe that this week will bring good news in the stock market. I am attaching an article that I wrote earlier today about my concerns of Russia and the United States' high inflation.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by chasenlz
Week in a Glance: War, Inflation and the Fed, Retail SalesLast week, the information tension around Russia and Ukraine reached its local peak, since February 16 was the date the US announced the start of the war. Despite the fact that the date has passed without any excesses, the shadow of the war has tightly covered the financial markets and is not thinking of retreating yet. Perhaps the two main indicators of the level of information tension are the dynamics of oil and gold prices. With oil, everything is clear, since 10+ million barrels per day of production are at stake. And gold finally remembered that it is an eternal safe-haven asset, and the demand for it has been increased all week. So if anyone believes in the markets and their ability to respond as sensitively and quickly as possible to the slightest changes in the information field, then here's what you need to look at in order to understand when it will be possible to breathe a sigh of relief. Oil will fall and gold will begin to decline, which means the worst is behind us. But, unfortunately, we start the week at close to maximum levels for both assets. As for the stock market, it still should not be used as a pure indicator. Yes, it is also under downward pressure. But it still has its own separate story in the form of a change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States. And last week, the markets received a number of signals in favor of the fact that the tightening promises to be quite aggressive and very soon. Both the minutes of the last FOMC meeting and data on manufacturing inflation in the US spoke in favor of this. Considering that in other countries, for example, in the UK, the situation is no better (inflation is at its highest levels over the past 30-40 years), as in Canada, the downward pressure on the US stock market can be explained not only by geopolitical risks. At the same time, we note that positive news and an optimistic mood are not in the price now. Retail sales in the US showed solid growth, which turned out to be much higher than expected. But, judging by the reaction of the markets, it was of little interest to anyone. As is the reporting season, which is coming to an end in the US. The upcoming week is unlikely to change pessimism to optimism. The shadow of war, judging by Biden's latest comments, is only getting denser so far. But every day without a fight increases the chances that it will remain informational. In terms of the economy, this week we are waiting for the decision of the Central Bank of New Zealand, which is expected to raise the rate again. And if the comments are aggressive enough, the New Zealand dollar will very likely be in high demand in the foreign exchange market. In addition, there will be a host of less important macroeconomic statistics such as PMIs in Europe or data on personal income and spending in the US.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Ford seems to be finding a bottomFord Motor Company F Areas of interest: Consolidation: 1) $19-20.50 2) 17.52-18.59 Breakup at $21.50 Breakdown at $16.49 Recent overhead gap between $18.46-19.89 Reversal candles seem to be appearing in the lower consolidation zone (2) on the 3 day chart - almost looking like an inverted hammer but not enough wick to truly label them as such. Indicators show us on the 3 DAY chart: Currently trading below the 12 and 26 EMA The 12 is above the 26 but appear to be attempting to cross soon if bears take control and push the stock price below consolidation 2 (listed above) Currently trading above the 50 MA The 50 MA recently has acted as support and seems to have help stabilize the stocks price into consolidation for the past 1.5 weeks of trading Observations from a bull and bear side: As a bull, I (obviously) want to see the 50 MA hold and to see divergence of the 12 and 26 EMA (to the upside) to shake any fears of a potential cross under (12 under 26). Recapturing $19 would be my first target. A break and hold of this level will signify an attempt by the buyers to send the price of Ford back to its consolidation zone. This is needed in order for Ford to breakout and create NEW structure. The previous attempt was rejected as the price moved too fast to levels not seen in 20 years. Remember, there is such thing as a 20 year bag holder. Employees, insiders, investors, retail, shorts, etc. A blue chip company like this needs to gradually climb, in stairstep manor, creating small consolidation periods where the market accepts small movements one at a time. That said, I would love to see Ford make use of its previous consolidation zone to prep for the next level. In my opinion, this would be $21.50-22.50. As a bear, a break below the 50 MA while considering the breakdown level of $16.73 should be watched. A break below 16.49 would potentially send Ford down to it's PREVIOUS structure between $12.38-16.49. I want to highlight this only to prep for the potential this could happen -imo it is unlikely unless the entire market continues to slide further into a true recession/crash. For this fact alone, either selling covered calls at this breakdown level or buying puts would be a good way for Ford longs to fight against this scenario. Most recent news - I will makes this as UNBIASED as possible: 1. (RUMOR) - "Ford is considering separating its electric vehicle business from its legacy operations, Bloomberg reported Friday." www.thestreet.com 2. (Heavy Bullish Opinion Piece) - "The legacy automaker has copied from its great rival a method which makes it possible to have updated cars regularly and to reduce costs." www.thestreet.com 3. (Bearish Facts, sorry Bulls) - "New Broncos Are Reportedly Sitting Undelivered Due to Chip Shortage" www.roadandtrack.com 4. (Interesting way to approach safety) - "Ford’s latest road safety idea? In-car sounds of pedestrians and bike bells" road.cc 5. (Counter to #1) - "“We have no plans to spin off our battery electric-vehicle business or our traditional ICE business.” www.barrons.com 6. (Consumer Report top EV pick awarded to Ford) "Ford Mustang Mach-E Is Consumer Reports' EV Top Pick. The Tesla Model 3 won the award for the last two consecutive years." insideevs.com 7. (DON'T count out NASCAR, man) www.nascar.com 8. (New turbocharged inline-4 SUV) - www.motorauthority.com 9. (Not sure how this will play out, probably BAD PR tbh) - "Ford says it's working with unvaccinated salaried employees before rolling out unpaid leave plan" www.wxyz.com 10. (Ford building new plants) - www.autonews.com 11. (Fords push to EV and battery solutions) - "Ford, Volvo join Redwood in EV battery recycling push in California" www.reuters.com
NYSE:FLong
by OccamsPhazer
19