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Market Fear Causes Respect of > [ 157.3 ] Weekly Zone / GbpJpyThis is my bias as we move into the new week of trading. I was confident after Thursday Daily candle closure that we would finally get a close above 157.300 on the Weekly and Daily Timeframes. The News on Friday caused us to respect this zone on the HTF's . I'm looking for Sells for the first few sessions of the week. My bias will change uf we get a strong 4hr close above 156.845. Looking for limit orders entries as I don't thnk these prices can hold given current market sentiment and fud. I like 156.845
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Inflation Keeps on Hitting Records as Bond Yields RiseThe main event of yesterday can undoubtedly be considered the publication of inflationary data from the US (consumer inflation). We already wrote that given the current prices for energy resources, industrial metals and agricultural products, as well as their dynamics (permanent growth) and the dynamics of wages, one cannot count on a reduction in inflationary pressure. So yesterday's data showed that the problem itself will not resolve. 7.5% annual price growth for the US is something unprecedented. Unseen for a good 40 years. Note that this is even higher than analysts' forecasts, who expected a 7.3% growth. This news is definitely not in the hands of buyers in the US stock market, if only because the Fed has less and less time and room to maneuver. An increase in the rate in March is already seen as something inevitable and it is quite likely that the rate will be increased not by 0.25%, but immediately by 0.5% (if before the publication of yesterday's data, the probability of this was estimated at about 25%, now it is 92%). And the rise in US Treasury yields (10-year yields have surpassed 2%) makes us wonder if it is worth buying overpriced stocks, exposing ourselves to the risk of a bubble burst, if you can get a guaranteed 2% with formally zero risk. There are still few sellers on the oil market. This was partly helped by the latest OPEC report, which says that global oil demand will grow by 4.15 million bpd in 2022 after a sharp increase of 5.7 million bpd in 2021. Apparently, the fate of the oil market will be decided at the supply level: will OPEC + continue to increase production further and is this structure really able to increase supply, by how much will the US increase production in 2022 and, finally, will they come to an agreement with Iran, and if so, how much additional oil will be on the market. The fate of oil will depend on the answers to these questions.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD - Will CPI cause a rally? Good morning guys! ☕️ I`m still staying aside and observe as the market is very weak in volume. The big players highly await the US-CPI-Data since they never had such a strong importance to the market, as this should offer new clues on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy this year. Almost nothing moved until yesterday due to rumors by JP Morgan saying that inflation has reached its peek and that todays CPI should be lower than expected. This would obviously be good for stocks and the risk-on-sentiment which has a strong impact on a lot of currencies since the most hawkish scenario is probably already priced in. Especially stocks that benefit from deflational-scenarios like tec-stocks were pumping (compare NASDAQ100 to SPX500). For example: AUD/USD aswell as NZD/USD were following the risk-on-mood of the stockmarket, while EUR/USD and GBP/USD were volatile without any direcction. A high and longer lasting inflation than expected while the economy slows down is currently the markets biggest fear as one of the most important tools to boost the economic growth is liquidity, so lower interest-rates and for example quantative easing. If inflation is already high central banks can not really support the market with more financial injection, means the higher the inflation the less likely it gets to see more fiscal support to boost consume and investment and that would not be good for companies, and so for stocks. Simply put: 1️⃣ A lower CPI could confirm yersterdays rally due to expectations for less rate-hikes this year by the fed 👉US-Dollar should fall! 2️⃣A higher CPI could spread fear in the market due to expectations for a very tight monetary policy by the fed 👉 US-Dollar should rally! Several companies have already lowered their earning-expectations for this year as they expect a harsh hawkish run by Jermome Powell. Let`s see whether data can confirm the markets rally or not.👊 SPX500 👉 EUR/USD 👉
by Trading2ez
3
Are Problems Over? Data from the US May Give a HintA couple of months ago, we wrote about the main threats to the global economy and financial markets in 2022. Inflation, a pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains - that's what worried market participants around the world. And although 2022 has just begun, there is a feeling that thanks to Omicron, with its super contagiousness, with relatively mild consequences, the pandemic will stop for the foreseeable future. Commenting on disruptions in the global logistics system, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, which handles nearly a fifth of the world's container shipping, said the disruption could stop in just a few months. As far as inflation is concerned, everything is less rosy here. But the Central Banks have clearly entered the warpath and, in theory, the situation will stabilize after a while. However, even today, data from the US may remind that this problem is still far from being resolved. Moreover, commodity markets are at multi-year highs. According to Goldman Sachs Group analysts, there is a shortage of absolutely everything, from oil and metals to agricultural products. And if so, then it is somewhat naive to expect any serious price reduction in such conditions. In general, we monitor not only the actions of the Central Banks, but also prices in the commodity markets. And what else is worth monitoring is the situation in the automotive sector. If over the past couple of years food prices have increased by an average of 5%+, for energy - by about 10%, then for used cars the increase was about 23%. This, in turn, is a derivative of the shortage of chips and the underproduction of cars, the scale of which is in the millions. So the growth in car production will be one of the signals in favor of an early reduction in inflationary pressure.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
Bank of America and 7 Rate Hikes, Iran and OilOn Thursday, another portion of inflation statistics from the United States will be published, and Bank of America, anticipating its next increase, announced its forecast for the number of Fed rate hikes in 2022. The number of expected promotions is impressive - 7 pieces. This is the most aggressive forecast to date from leading experts. As an additional motivation, Bank of America analysts cite Friday's data on the US labor market, which, among other things, showed a sharp increase in wages in the US (by 0.7% in January to 5.7% per annum), which was the highest since March 2007. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are rising, as are the chances of a rate hike in March. Moreover, the probability that it will be increased not by 0.25%, but immediately by 0.5% has already approached 40%. But that didn't stop the US stock market from rising yesterday. The main reason for growth is the quarterly reporting of corporations, which, although in some cases raises questions, but for the most part, it turns out to be excellent. However, if you wish, you can find a negative. For example, analysts at Wells Fargo note that the profit margin compared to the third quarter, and a number of large companies in the reports mention the threat of inflation. Well, do not forget that many companies did not give forecasts for future quarters and the year as a whole. Which indicates their uncertainty about financial results in the future. Oil yesterday was under pressure, but not facts, but rather their expectations. I mean negotiations with Iran. While they are in the process and took a ten-day break. But according to rumors, there is progress, which means that in the event of sanctions from the United States, serious volumes of additional oil supply may appear on the market at once. According to various estimates, from 0.5 to 2 million b/d.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Oil Market Backwardation and Medium-term ProspectsThe start of 2022 turned out to be extremely successful for the oil market (since the beginning of the year, oil has added about 20%). Although many predicted that the market would go from deficit to surplus by this time, apparently this has not yet happened. At least, the presence of backwardation in the oil market speaks in favor of this. Recall that backwardation is a situation in the futures market, in which prices for goods with immediate delivery are higher than quotations for futures contracts, and prices for futures with short terms are higher than quotations for distant positions. So yesterday, with the spot price of oil on the market around 93, the nearest futures (March 2022) were quoted at 91.7, April - at 90, and May in general at 88.50. What does it say? The fact that here and now there is not enough oil and buyers are ready to overpay. We already wrote that one of the reasons for this state of affairs was the inability of OPEC + to fully fulfill its obligations to increase oil production. Plus the energy crisis, plus the winter, plus the growth in demand. In general, almost everyone needs oil here and now. Nevertheless, speaking about the prospects, we continue to believe that oil sales are an excellent medium-term (from six months to a year in position) deal. OPEC+ has been increasing production by 400K b/d every month since August, albeit nominally in places. In the US, the number of active oil installations (the number has almost tripled since pandemic lows) and production (rose from 10 million in September 2020 to 10.7 million at the start of 2021) are growing and are doing it more and more actively as prices rise. Negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran are ongoing and the US even plans to lift some of the sanctions. The recovery in demand is nearing completion, and the immediate future of the global economy does not look all that bright. Yes, and the energy crisis as the winter ends and the growth of gas transit from Russia will clearly decrease in scale. In general, the current prices look like a great opportunity to sell at a higher price.
TVC:UKOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: ECB, ADP & NFP, Reporting & OPECBank of England and ECB, ADP and NFP, reporting and OPEC The past week was exceptionally rich in terms of news and, accordingly, was characterized by high volatility. The Bank of England expectedly raised the rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 0.5%. This was the first two consecutive rate hikes since 2004. The motivation is inflation, which is predicted to rise further with a peak in mid-spring 2022. The ECB continues to go its own way. For him, economic recovery is more important than fighting inflation. So the rate in the Eurozone was left unchanged. The Central Bank can be understood: retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 3% in December. OPEC+ has traditionally decided to increase production by another 400K b/d. But the markets did not appreciate this gesture, pushing Brent oil above 93 per barrel. The reason is that demand is recovering quickly, but the ability of OPEC + to actually increase production by the planned values ​​raises doubts in the markets. In our opinion, oil is now at its price peak and this is a good opportunity for medium-term sales of the asset. Especially when you consider that OPEC and other respected organizations expect an oil surplus in 2022. The US labor market is in a very strange and contradictory shape. Data from ADP, published on Wednesday, recorded a decrease (!) in the number of new jobs by more than 300K. But according to official statistics (NFP data), the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased by 467K during the month, which turned out to be a positive surprise and made it possible to make good money on purchases of the USDCAD pair, since data on the Canadian labor market was rather weak. The reporting season in the US has reached its peak. And it continues to cause mixed feelings, on the one hand, there are Apple, Alphabet and Amazon, which are showing excellent financial results. On the other hand, there is Meta, whose stock lost 25%+ on just one Thursday last week. As a result, almost the entire weekly growth of NASDAQ was “eaten”. The coming week in the news plan promises to be much calmer. Although the data on inflation in the US and GDP in the UK will definitely contribute to bursts of volatility, as will the reporting of corporations such as Alibaba, Disney, Toyota, Coca-Cola, etc.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Bank of England Raises Rates, ECB Abstains, Waiting for NFPThe news attention of the markets yesterday was riveted not to the US, but to Europe. The Bank of England and the ECB announced their decisions on the parameters of monetary policy. As expected, the Bank of England raised the rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 0.5%. Recall that at the previous meeting the rate was also increased, but by 0.15%. That is, we have two rate increases in a row - for the first time since 2004 (!). The underlying motivation for these actions is obvious – inflation. The Bank of England raised its own inflation forecast to 7.25% from 6%, which was predicted in December. The ECB decided not to touch the rate. However, it is also predictable. The current concept of the ECB: the economy is primary and the main thing is not to harm it. Accordingly, raising the rate is not their option. Considering such scenarios, let's once again pay attention to the sales of the EURGBP pair against the backdrop of an increase in the interest rate differential in favor of the pound. Mark Zuckerberg lost $29 billion yesterday after shares of Meta Platforms Inc posted a record one-day drop of 26%. Whereas Jeff Bezos added $20 billion to his net worth following Amazon's great quarterly results and the company's stock up 15% in post-closing trading. The main event of today is the publication of statistics on the US labor market. Considering how bad ADP's numbers have been, there's plenty of room for intrigue. And if so, then you can try news trading, since a surge in volatility seems inevitable, or at least very likely. The optimal choice of instrument for trading is a pair of USDCAD - simply because at the same time with the figures from the US, data on the Canadian labor market will be published, which is of increased importance for the Canadian dollar. Recall the sequence of actions. A minute before the release of the data, we place pending orders of the stop type for buying and selling in 20 points from the price that is in the pair at that time. And then we wait. If there is weak data from the US and strong data from Canada, a sell stop is picked up, and if it is weak from Canada and strong from the US, then buy stop. Well, then it remains to be patient at least for a couple of hours, after which we fix the profit.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Please Remove The News Feed above Bid / Ask watchlist section!Does anyone else not like the news feeds that are on almost every ticker above the Quote on the right side of watchlist display. Trading view needs to stop changing things that are working well already. Were traders, we like to keep it simple, the news feeds are distracting from the prices bid asks and day ranges and not important to us. Either put it down on that bottom or at least have the option to toggle the news display on and off. drive.google.com
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by TheIntelligentInvestor
EURUSD ; Less than 24 Hours to NFP / 1.14550 > Range > BreakoutEURUSD is looking quite bullish as EURO buyers showed up quite strong early in the week and have maintained a stronghold on the order flow. This shift in Sentiment from the prior week can feel quite drastic, on an intraday basis. But thats the nature of the Lower Time Frames. The lower time frame gives more detail and more noise so you cant get one without the other. However , create a bias for direction on the Higher time frame, and look for confirmation of your bias on the smaller timeframes. This takes time, experience, resilience, reviewing your losses, dealing with life outside trading etc. It is possible, not syaing it will happen, but we could come up to 1.153 tomorrow as NFP closes the week off, just based on momentum and fundamentals sentiment, etc. cheers everyone
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
8
Why the Stock Market Grew on the Failed Data from ADPThe most interesting and noteworthy in yesterday's news background is, perhaps, the data on US employment from ADP. Yes, the markets are much more interested in official figures in the form of NFP, and the correlation between NFP and ADP is about 25%, but still this is an indicator that directly characterizes the US labor market. So yesterday, according to ADP, the US economy lost 301K jobs in January. Once again, it did not show a smaller increase than the markets expected (and the markets were counting on 200K+ after the growth of 776K in December), namely that it lost over 300K jobs. This is a failure. The last time this happened, except for January 2021, just at the start of the first lockdowns. Tellingly, the basic reason for the failure is the same – the outbreak of a pandemic. This time, omicron, even without full-fledged lockdowns, dealt a rather tangible blow to the labor market. In general, supporters of the idea of ​​further rapid economic recovery have another headache. A natural question arises: if the data is so bad, then why did the US stock market grow (SP500 and Dow closed the day in positive territory). Indeed, in theory, what is bad for the country's economy is bad for its stock market. The answer to this question lies in the plane of monetary policy and the dual mandate of the Fed. Yes, the US Central Bank is on the warpath against inflation, but it must also take into account the state of the labor market when making decisions. And such data here give hope for a lower level of aggressiveness in the actions of the Fed in terms of tightening monetary policy. And this is definitely positive for the US stock market. OPEC+ yesterday agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 bpd. Recall that we keep medium-term sales of the asset, even despite its recent growth. The reason was recalled in the OPEC + report: the total surplus in 2022 in the oil market will reach 1.3 million barrels per day. And an excess of an asset is a reason for lowering its prices. Today is interesting primarily for the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England, as well as the ECB. And if everything is more or less clear with the second one - they will adhere to the line of ultra-soft monetary policy, then the Bank of England is expected to raise the rate again. In this light, the pound looks quite advantageous on the currency market, primarily against the euro. So the sales of the EURGBP pair look promising.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Fed's Trying to Calm Markets, & Sector's Pleased with ReportingWe already wrote that there is a competition among analysts and experts who will predict more rate hikes from the Fed in 2022. Some consensus is in the region of 3-4 increases. Although there are extreme cases like 7 promotions. In general, the markets thoroughly wound themselves up. The Fed, seeing this, decided to reassure the public a little. This week, several central bank officials said at once that the Fed will not make any sudden moves, monetary tightening will be gradual and any new move will depend on economic data. As a result, we see a return of demand for risky assets, accompanied by a decrease in Treasuries yields and dollar weakness. In general, the game continues. The markets were looking for an excuse to breathe, the Fed gave them this reason. In our opinion, this is the only way to perceive what is happening. An additional reason for joy was the reporting of technology giants. Alphabet and AMD released quarterly results that were better than expected. Alphabet, after 32% revenue growth and 65% share price growth over the past year, even announced a 20-to-1 stock split that will go into effect in July. Last but not least, according to the Department of Labor, there were almost 11 million job openings in December, more than 4.6 million more than the overall unemployment rate. That is, demand in the US labor market significantly exceeds supply.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Worst Month's Over, but There Are No More Reasons for OptimismJanuary ended for the US stock market on a positive note, which, however, does not negate the fact that the month was one of the worst in history. To recap: S&P 500 down 5% (worst since March 2020), Dow down over 3% (worst since October 2020), Nasdaq Composite down 9% in January (or 12% from highs) November), making January the worst month for the index since October 2008. Recall that the main reasons for the sales were the expectations of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy (by the way, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. laid out their forecast for the number of Fed rate hikes in 2022 - 5 pieces), inflation, as well as problems with global logistics. That's not counting the omicron, the scaling back of fiscal stimulus, geopolitical risks, and so on. Eurozone reported on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 0.3% growth is not an inspiring figure. Especially when you consider that the main economy of the Eurozone - Germany - is at risk of sliding into recession in the first quarter of 2022 (the fourth quarter of 2021, the German economy closed with a decrease of 0.7%). And in the US economy, everything is not cloudless, despite the excellent data on GDP for the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) cut its 2022 GDP forecast to 3.2% from a consensus forecast of 3.8%. The reasons for such pessimism are the same: fiscal support is weakening, and Omicron is pressing. Therefore, it is more than premature to say that the worst is over and start buying everything in a row. And finally, a few words about oil (one of the key drivers of inflation, by the way), whose prices are in no particular hurry to decline. This week, OPEC+ (another meeting at the start of the month) may support sellers by increasing oil production by 400K b/d once again. But the main problem is that it seems that with each new increase, market doubts about the ability of OPEC + to actually increase production are growing. OPEC+ is currently producing 600K b/d less than it should be according to plans.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx