Get started

NEWS

March Rate Hike, Oil and China StrikesAfter the highest consumer inflation in the last 40 years, followed by a 10% increase in producer prices, the ranks of the Fed finally closed: it is necessary to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. And if at the start of the week the markets were counting on an increase in May, then after a series of aggressive comments from the Fed officials after inflation, now with a probability of 90%, a rate increase is expected in March. In fact, March is just around the corner. So before the denouement, there was nothing left. A little longer until the resolution of the pandemic issue. China, with its zero tolerance for the pandemic, is starting to harm the global economy, slowing down global logistics, which cannot recover without it. Well, Biden, meanwhile, is going to use the army to ensure the functioning of hospitals. Formally, the current fundamental background is quite favorable for the US dollar, but it has been sold all week. The fall looks manageable so far, and we see it as more of an excuse to buy cheaper than to flip short. The best candidate for mid-term purchases of the dollar among the majors is the euro. Well, the Turkish lira remains an attractive target for sales against the US dollar. Where the negative fundamental factors have not yet been sufficiently taken into account, it is in the oil market. Everyone somehow forgot about the next increase in production from OPEC +, about the growth of production in the US, about interventions from the States in the form of sales of the strategic reserve (the US Department of Energy said on Thursday that it sold 18 million barrels of strategic reserves of crude oil to six companies) , about thousands of canceled flights around the world due to the outbreak of omicron, the closure of cities in China, etc. In general, selling oil at current prices is a great trading idea.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Controlled Inflation, Company Costs, and Omicron CollapseLooking at yesterday's data on consumer inflation in the United States, one involuntarily wonders what the Fed was counting on when they repeated the mantra about the temporality of inflation for six months and assured that it would resolve itself. It resolved to the highest growth rates since 1982 and an annual growth rate of 7%, which is unheard of for developed countries. Tellingly, everything points in favor of a further rise in prices: the energy crisis has received a second wind thanks to the winter and a cold snap, and the inability of automakers to meet demand due to a shortage of chips leads to an increase in prices for used cars. In light of such data, 2022 is simply bound to become the year of a comprehensive tightening of monetary policy, however, Powell officially confirmed all this on Tuesday, speaking in Congress. Recall that the Fed's target is 2%. Markets estimate the chances of a first rate hike as early as May at 79%. However, yesterday the markets once again decided to ignore reality and pretended not to notice either inflation or the consequences that it entails. But the consequences are not only a tightening of monetary policy, but also an increase in companies' costs. And endlessly transferring them to consumers will not work. Sooner or later, you will have to sacrifice margin and profit. Banks are already reporting tomorrow and the reporting season is entering an active phase. It will be very interesting to see how corporations deal with inflation this time around. If they decide to give up some of the profits so as not to lose customers, then the disappointment of buyers of shares can be transformed into a sale. The number of covid diseases in the world has jumped over 3 million (!) new cases per day. As a result, the FDA said extremely ominously in Congress that an unprecedented wave of omicronic infections across the country could provoke the inoperability of police, health care and transportation services. What can we say about non-emergency services - all kinds of production, services and other elements of the economic system. By the way, we wrote about this earlier - if everyone is sick at the same time, then there will simply be no one to work. And now everyone is getting sick en masse.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
2
EURUSD LONG SETUP - US CPI NEWS - 1.15?Hello everyone! today's trade is on EURUSD, a pair with high volatility which is a favorable thing for traders. Why are we taking this trade? - Ascending triangle on EURUSD with a very strong uptrend and buying-volume. - Price above the 20-50-200 EMAs and the POC. - European Stocks Higher on Recovery Optimism. - Dollar edges off lows as U.S. inflation test looms. - As inflation continues, CPI news have a high probability to come negative for dxy. - Good RRR trade, 1:3 - Not going against price direction. Everyone will have a different entry based on his risk management! mine is Buy-limit at 1.134 hope it gets filled. Don't scalp! swing trade as high volatility might hit all your tight SLs. Good luck everyone.
Long
by dogofwallstreets
Aggressive Powell Against Omicron RecordsRisky assets were recovering yesterday, while the VIX Fear Index was declining. To say that there were some special reasons for this, perhaps, is impossible. On the contrary, the headlines of the leading news agencies set up rather gloomy thoughts. Let's start with the fact that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economy is in good enough shape for the Central Bank to start tightening monetary policy without fear. Recall that the Fed plans for 2022 are as follows: a reduction in the volume of the quantitative easing program (it should be brought to zero in March), followed by 3-4 rate hikes, and the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet will be the icing on this cake. It's strange that the markets go out of their way to ignore this elephant in the china shop. Apparently, they are waiting for the dishes to start beating. We continue to believe that it is possible to act ahead of the curve, the outcome is too obvious. Meanwhile, the number of Covid-19 patients in US hospitals has surpassed last winter's high, with the US reporting 1.5 million. Such is the "soft" omicron. In fact, what is expected due to a sharp increase in the incidence of diseases, even with a smaller proportion of hospitalizations, US hospitals are overloaded, which may well cause a local collapse of the healthcare system. China, meanwhile, placed under lockdown 5 million people living in the city of Anyang after two cases of omicron infection were reported there. In general, of any rational reasons for the growth of the US stock market this week, one can only note the start of the reporting season and extremely optimistic expectations of the markets, the implementation of which investors are trying to take into account by buying in advance.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Bad Omens: China, Crypto, IPO, Woods and InsidersBuyers in the US stock market were again uncomfortable yesterday. There were no new reasons on the horizon: all the same talk about tightening the Fed's monetary policy. Meanwhile, the number of bad omens is growing. The point is that although the US stock market as a whole seems to be in order, some of its elements (the most extreme) or other risky assets are already being sold out with might and main. In today's review, we just want to talk about these early signals. We have already written about some of them earlier, but we will repeat ourselves in order to form a more complete picture. The US tech sector in the form of the Nasdak index added almost 30% at the end of 2021. But at the same time, a similar Chinese index lost about 50% (!). Or here's another fact. Katie Woods, who tripled investor investment in 2020, managed to lose over 40% in 2021. Once again: with the market growing by 30%, Katie Woods, when buying, managed to show the result in minus 40%. Why is that? Because it works with the most extreme assets that have just started to crumble. These assets are extreme also due to the riskiness. By the way, about the most risky assets. Our entire cryptocurrency market Bitcoin has lost about 40% over the past couple of months. And somehow the predictions about 100K or 500K per cue ball are no longer heard. But all these are links of one chain. It's just that at first the most risky assets fell down, and the rest will follow. Well, and a few more words about risky assets. 2021 was a record year for an IPO. But in fact, the year was a year of a record number of disappointed expectations and investors. Of the 50+ U.S. tech companies that went public in 2021 through an IPO, SPAC, or direct listing, only one company is less than 20% below the peak price. More than 20 companies out of 50 have lost at least half of their value compared to their peaks. We have already cited an interesting fact: American billionaires sold $ 42.9 billion in shares by the beginning of December 2021, which is more than double the $ 20.2 billion sold in all of 2020. It would seem that everything is growing, the prospects are sky-high - we must take it. But people who perfectly understand the real value of the company and the state of the markets are selling, and in record volumes. In general, if we combine all these facts into a big picture, we get the classic flight of rats from the ship. Moreover, these are only the first rodents so far, the rest will follow them, because the ship is doomed and it is only a matter of time until it finds its reef and it does not matter if it is an increase in the FRS rates, a new wave of a pandemic, political destabilization or an energy crisis.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
1
Week in a Glance: FOMC, OPEC+ Protocols & Risky Assets ProblemsThe past week turned out to be one of the worst for risky assets in recent years: crypts were falling, sales were going on in the US stock market. And it was not about the omicron, which, although it provoked new world records of the pandemic (the number of new daily cases of diseases approached the 3 million mark, and a couple of weeks ago only slightly exceeded 1 million), was nevertheless stubbornly ignored by the markets. The trigger was rather the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC FRS. It followed from the text that the US Central Bank was going to uncover almost all of its anti-inflationary bazookas in 2022: tapering, rate hikes, as well as a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. Moreover, judging by the latest data from the Eurozone, annual inflation does not even think that it will decline, but even stop growing, having reached a new historical maximum of 5% in December. Well, on Friday, an additional reason for sales in the US stock market was provided by data on the labor market NFP came out 2 times worse than expected and even worse than the previous value, showing an increase of less than 200K. Perhaps the only risky asset that showed growth was oil. But there is a separate story with Kazakhstan. At the same time, we note that OPEC + continues to increase production by 400K b / d every month and in February there will be another increase in oil supply. So we believe that selling not only the stock market and crypto, but oil as well. The coming week will be interesting primarily for inflation statistics from the US, as well as retail sales in the States. It is quite possible that the week will become a defining one for the cryptocurrency market. A mining recovery in Kazakhstan could bring optimism back to the market and push prices up. But if this does not happen, then the remaining buyers may disappear from the market, and we will see Bitcoin at 30K or lower in the foreseeable future. Well, the reporting season. Banks traditionally open it.
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Trade24Fx
1
GME and the MediaGME tested strong high-volume support from March and earlier in 2021 and bounced up sharply off the ~$122 level rising to ~$174 in the AH yesterday. The AH spike occurred at a time when most retail was not in the market, likely to avoid FOMO and more specifically to effect the IV in a manner to curtail potential options trading by retail and other players in this equity. Smells of desperation. And the OBV for GME is amazing and continues to show that nobody is selling even during significant price drops. GME bulls will just not let go of their shares. Further, the Woodies CCI indicator had a fairly extreme reading this week and with the sharp bounce up off support, it appears that the near-term bottom may finally be in... In terms of the recent media coverage I heard it was "bad" for GME. I don't watch the media much if at all, but trading wisdom has always dictated that traders should 'SELL THE NEWS' - meaning smart traders will often buy/hold on bad news and sell on good news. Based on the OBV it looks like the smart money is adding and holding through this recent bad news...so am I. Not financial advice.
NYSE:GMELong
by Akksujean
2
How To Trade During the News?It's critical for forex traders to pay attention to big economic data releases, government statements, and geopolitical events. Why? Because this information generally represents a country's economic strength and can predict a currency's future direction. Trading the news might be tough and not fit for everyone, but the resulting volatility can provide a plethora of trading chances. You know what they say: with the big volatility, comes the big responsibility (or something like that, right? #InvestroyJoke), so beware of wide spreads and slippages. We must first determine whether news items are even worth trading before building a "Trade the News" method. "Which news releases should I trade?" is a question you want to be able to answer. The big event risks that have a significant influence on the major currencies should be familiarized by forex traders. Remember, we're trading the news because it has the potential to raise volatility in the near term, thus we'd want to trade just the news that has the most market-moving potential for the currency market. The news that tends to influence market action and create volatility generally consists of the following: Modifications in central bank policy (sometimes known as "monetary policy"). Changes in government policy (sometimes known as "fiscal policy"). Economic data releases have had unexpected results. Random tweets from a particular international leader who enjoys emblazoning his name on skyscrapers (not anymore), or a billionaire working on spacexploration. Pretty much everything marked red in the economic calendar (especially related to US). There is no single news trading approach. As traders assess the conclusion versus market expectations, the price tends to surge in one way or have a subdued reaction to the news. With this knowledge, there are two basic ways to exchange news: a) Having a bias in one way b) Having an asymmetrical bias When you have a directional bias, you expect the market to move in one way when the news is disclosed. When looking for a trading opportunity in a certain direction, it's helpful to understand what aspects of news stories lead the market to move. The non-directional bias technique is a more popular news trading strategy. This strategy ignores any directional bias and merely relies on the fact that a major news event will cause a significant movement. It makes no difference either way the FX market swings. We simply want to be present when it happens! When you have a directional bias, you expect the price to go in a specific way, and you've already placed your orders. When news is released, it is always beneficial to grasp the underlying reasons why the market swings in a particular manner. You don't care which way pricing goes when you have a non-directional bias. All you want to do is get activated. Straddle trades are a type of non-directional bias setup. Conclusion: In addition to the factors mentioned above, you should be willing to learn along the way by figuring out: which news are stronger than others, what is the difference that needs to be between forecast vs actual for volatility to skyrocket and which news you should never even try trading. All these things come from trading and trading only (moreover, bad news, market changes every year). Personal note: The way we do it most of the time is… we trade them way before release, as this is how market picks up the direction.
Education
by Investroy
15
Technical analysis of BTC DEC21"Why it moved the way it moved" Technical analysis on the past chart is of no use we have to be prepared for the next possible move before hand. But every time i start charting i feel this is not predictable might be because im busy, lazy or unmotivated. 😒 But that doesn't mean we can archive every move cuz next time maybe when it starts moving we can be prepared beforehand, Afterall we are deciphering charts to get each patterns, right? This month my overall portfolio increased by 0% heck i even liquidated my demo accounts. All in the hope that i will be prepared for the next month. BTC don't move because of the news. BTC moves are indication of a future news. Everything happens for a reason, its either long or short, we just had to be there at the right place at the right time Lesson: be in short and long position beforehand so even when we breakout we are already in a position
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by phenodev
Greetings from the Fed, Surprise from ADP and Risky Asset IssuesBuyers of risky assets were not in the mood for fun yesterday. The US stock market collapsed, commodity assets went into deep minus, crypto, of course, fell. Tellingly, nothing fundamentally new has happened. It's just that the Fed was reminded that 2022 will be the year of tightening of monetary policy in the United States. Although everyone knew about it. The minutes of the last meeting of the FRS Open Market Committee were published yesterday, which were extremely aggressive. To begin with, FOMC members believe the labor market is approaching full employment, while inflation is a major concern. That is, they made it clear what part of the Fed's dual mandate is now a priority. Recall that at the last meeting of the FOMC, it was decided to accelerate the reduction of the asset repurchase program, as well as updated forecasts for the FRS rates, which suggest up to 3 rate hikes in 2022. In addition to all this, in the text of the protocols, there was a mention of the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which finished off buyers. All in all, the worst news for the US stock market is hard to imagine. The central bank is clearly embarking on a warpath. The US stock market bubble was inflated mainly by the Fed by injecting trillions of cheap money. So the texts of the last FOMC meeting show that in 2022 the Fed will carry out the opposite processes - to withdraw money, with all the ensuing consequences for the stock market. The protocol texts that the US labor market is approaching full employment are in very good sync with yesterday's ADP employment data, which turned out to be the best since May 2021. The growth in the number of jobs in the private sector amounted to 807,000 per month, which significantly exceeded the forecasts of experts (375,000) and the November increase of 505,000. The main generator of new jobs was the leisure and hospitality sector (246,000 new vacancies). And finally, we note that the pandemic continues to break records. The number of new cases of diseases worldwide has exceeded 2.5 million per day. But even a couple of weeks ago, the number did not exceed 1 million. Since the data from ADP did not take into account the last couple of weeks of December, a very unpleasant surprise may await the markets next month.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
2
OPEC + and Oil Surplus, Omicron's Six Zeros in the USThe main event of yesterday was the OPEC + meeting. But this time there was very little intrigue. Unlike a couple of previous meetings, when the markets were not sure about an increase in production by 400K (either because of the fall in oil prices, or because of the pandemic), this week everything went very casual. An additional 400K b / d will appear on the oil market in February. Recall that, according to many experts, including OPEC, at the start of 2022 the oil market will go into a surplus (according to OPEC, in the first three months of the year, production will exceed world demand by 1.4 million barrels per day). But the participants in the financial markets are not particularly worried about this and are in no hurry to sell oil. Rather, on the contrary, neither risky assets continue to buy oil amid growing demand. The US stock market closed mixed yesterday. On the one hand, going against a furious bull is a bad idea. But, on the other hand, buying at current prices is still crazy. In general, Buffett, with his strategy of sitting on a bag of cash and waiting for a crash, looks like a kind of "golden" and risk-free mean. Even the 6-zeros figure for the number of new coronavirus cases in the United States could not shake faith in the bright future of the markets. The United States reported a record number of new Covid cases on Monday, with more than 1 million new infections, according to Johns Hopkins University. Yesterday was published data on the number of open vacancies in the United States. More than 10.5 million jobs are waiting to be filled. So there is a shortage of labor. The fact that people do not really want to work is evidenced by the fact that in November a record 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs. Today, with the help of ADP, it will be possible to see how the supply is able to meet the existing demand.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
New Year Kicks off with Records: Tesla, Apple, Ford & PandemicThe new year kicked off on a very optimistic note for risky assets. Tesla gave cause for optimism, having reported about 936K sold electric vehicles at the end of 2021. This is 87% more than in 2020. The growth rate is astounding, especially against the backdrop of the main scourge of automakers in 2021 - the lack of chips. And although Tesla shares were quite logically and naturally growing on this news, we cannot but note that all this does not negate the fact of their strongest overvaluation. And if the bubble in the US stock market starts to collapse, then one of the first victims will be Tesla with its sky-high prices. Although the markets ignored it, they wrote in a notebook that Tesla was recalling about 500K cars to fix something important there. And in general, if it seems to someone that Tesla is the king of growth in 2021, then here's a fact - Ford shares rose by 140% at the end of last year, which is more than the growth of Musk's shares. And although the bubble is not going to collapse yet, there is more and more evidence of its extreme phase. Let's take at least one more record of yesterday: Apple's capitalization reached $ 3 trillion. But not only Tesla and Apple are setting records these days. The new wave of the pandemic in volume has already exceeded two times the previous highs: 10 million new cases in seven days - this is almost double the previous weekly record of the pandemic. In Florida, for example, the number of new diseases has increased by almost 1000% in the last 2 weeks. And do not think that a milder course of the disease means that these numbers do not mean anything. At the very least, this is fraught with a temporary shortage of labor in the world. And as a maximum - new lockdowns. By the way, speaking of the labor force, the data on employment in the US from ADP will be published today, and on Friday we will see the official statistics on the US labor market.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Trade24Fx
Buying Put Options as Protection against Omicron Amid DivergenceOmicron continues to amaze with the speed and scale of its spread. The numbers are really terrifying. In Europe, the number of cases has increased by more than 50% in just a week (in America, the figure is about 30%). As a result, the number of new cases in France is already under 200K (almost three times higher than a couple of weeks ago). A similar figure (180K) in the UK. The United States has approached the 500K mark (a new absolute record) and it is likely that already at the start of 2022, after the successfully celebrated Christmas, the country will exceed the previously unthinkable number of one million new cases of the disease per day. In this light, as well as in anticipation of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, more and more traders are trying to at least partially insure themselves against a possible fall in the US stock market. That is, it has not yet come to open massive sales, but put options are flying like hot cakes. SentimenTrader estimates that in the week ended December 17, approximately 23% of new retail options were put contracts, up from 16% in early November. It should be noted that 2021 was a record year for the options market. On average, 39 million options contracts were traded daily this year, up 35% from 2020. At the same time, retail investors account for 25% of all trading activity. Which only confirms the idea expressed in yesterday's review. In general, summing up the results of 2021, let us once again note their ambiguity. That is, on the one hand, this is a super successful year for risky assets. The S&P 500 Index added almost 30%, which is a lot. But at the same time, 40% of the companies included in the index not only did not grow, but generally decreased in price by a two-digit amount, and a good half of these two hundred companies lost over 20%. We have already written about Katie Woods and her “successes” in 2021. That is, growth cannot be called uncontested. Such divergences are a sign of internal market weakness. So in 2022, despite the rally of Santa Claus, we prefer to enter not with long, but short positions in the US stock market.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
3
Pandemic's Breaking Records, Lemmings, and Gas in EuropeGas prices in Europe continue to crash. If a week ago quotations exceeded $ 2,000 per thousand cubic meters, then after five consecutive days of decline, quotations dropped to the $ 1100 region. The reasons are an increase in the supply of liquefied gas to Europe from the United States, as well as the expectation of warmer weather. This, of course, is not the end of the energy crisis, but a reason to reduce the upward pressure on oil. In general, our recommendation to sell oil has not lost its relevance, but, on the contrary, has added. In general, this behavior of gas prices is largely synchronous with the general behavior of financial markets, which are very changeable in their moods and are ready to change their point of view rather quickly and strongly. So risky assets grew yesterday by inertia, but then they somehow deflated. And again, there was no reason to change the mood. Rather, on the contrary, according to Omicron, the news could be interpreted in favor of risky assets: the CDC reduced the isolation period for the omicron from 10 to 5 days, those who had recovered from the omicron receive immunity from the delta. However, all this does not negate the rapid growth of diseases: over 1.2 million people fall ill every day around the world, which is almost 2 times (!) Higher than just a couple of weeks ago. Well, there is no need to say that this is a new absolute record for the entire pandemic. The strain is becoming dominant throughout the world. In the US, already under 60% of new cases are omicron. It is hard to recommend buying risky assets after looking at the graph of the number of diseases around the world. Note that the pandemic has caused a natural boom in retail investors and traders. As a result, the markets were flooded with an army of incompetent participants, due to which the behavior of the prices of financial assets was greatly detached from the fundamentals, and this must be taken into account when making trading decisions. According to brokers TD Ameritrade and Schwab, in 2021 they opened six million new accounts for two. But this is just the tip of the iceberg - Robingood and others like him, cryptocurrency exchanges and brokers - tens of millions of retail investors have become a real new force. In the meantime, our favorite indicator of the behavior of extreme forms of risky assets - investments by Katie Woods - shows that the year actually turned out to be not so uniquely successful for the US stock market. All of Woods' key investments in 2021 are in the negative, and quite deep (over 10%): Block, Coinbase, Unity Software, Zoom Video.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Risky Assets Rise on Retail Sales, Lira StormsThe last week of the year started on the most positive note for risky assets. The US stock market has reached new all-time highs and the impression is that it does not want to wait for the start of next year. Once again, we note that this is not the specificity of a single US stock market, but part of the general rally in risky assets, because cryptocurrencies were also growing yesterday, adding about 21%, and oil with almost 4% growth. Markets have clearly gone into berserker mode, where all negative aspects are ignored. Both current news, such as the cancellation of thousands of flights in the United States alone due to the outbreak of the pandemic, and promising news, such as a change in the vector of US monetary policy, are ignored. The expectation of a milder course of the disease caused by the omicron, as well as the figures for retail sales in the United States during the holiday season, which, according to Mastercard, grew by 8.5% compared to last year, were already chosen as reasons for growth. And since 2/3 of the US GDP is generated by the consumer sector, the news is extremely good for the economy as a whole. Of course, in such conditions, going against the market is an extremely dangerous idea. But all this does not negate the fact that the dynamics are too one-sided for such a versatile fundamental background. It is still volatile in pairs with the Turkish lira. As soon as the Central Bank of Turkey stops intervening, the lira begins to pour in. According to some estimates, last week the central bank burned about $ 8 billion in reserves to support the national currency. In general, a sharp increase in confidence in the national currency, which Erdogan had hoped for, did not happen - people did not run to banks with lira in order to put them on deposits, or with dollars to exchange for lira. In this light, we remind you about the sale of the lyre after its most powerful and, as it turned out, exclusively steroid growth last week.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Week in a Glance: Santa Claus Rally, Energy Crisis and LiraThe past week has been extremely successful for risky assets. The US stock market, represented by the SP500 index, reached historic highs, bitcoin went above 50K, and oil added 5% +. The reasons for this, on the one hand, were the belief that the omicron leads to a much less serious form of the course of the disease. On the other hand, the overall positive attitude due to the holidays. The year 2021 as a whole can be called a year of unbridled fun among risky assets. So the end of the year in this light looks quite natural. Interesting things were happening in the energy assets market. A new wave of panic swept over Europe, driving gas prices above $ 2,000 per thousand cubic meters. But by the end of the week, the bubble deflated (within 3 days, gas prices in Europe fell by more than 40%). Oil in this light was in high demand and was growing almost all week. But in light of such a rapid fall in gas prices, there is a feeling that without further replenishment from the side of risky asset lovers it will not be easy for oil to grow. In general, the current prices are quite promising in terms of sales. The Turkish lira looks very interesting now. Interesting things happened to her last week. The markets sincerely believed that the measures proposed by the Turkish authorities to stabilize the situation will be successful, all economic problems are behind and in general a bright future is literally around the corner. As a result, the lira, which was trading at 18 per dollar on December 14, strengthened to 11 by the end of last week. In our opinion, this is a typical overreaction and a correction is inevitable. So selling a little lira at the start of the week is an extremely rewarding and promising occupation. A festive week is ahead of us. In theory, everyone has no time for financial markets. But there is an element of danger in this - a thin market and potential flash crashes, which are quite likely in the presence of a large number of price bubbles.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Santa Claus Rally Amid Lockdowns in China and Booze SalesThe US stock market this year clearly intends to demonstrate what the "Santa Claus Rally" calendar anomaly is. Rally Santa Rally is a price pattern in which stocks rally in the last seven trading sessions of the year plus the first two trading days of the New Year. Over the past 92 years, the S&P 500 has risen 77% of the time during the Santa Claus rally, according to Sundial Capital Research. Average growth over this nine-day trading period was 2.66%. So the last three days in a row of growth fit well with this pattern, but poorly correlate with common sense. Common sense refers to the fundamental background that currently surrounds the US stock market. In general, markets live in the omicron-took, omicron-dal paradigm. And now is just the phase when the omicron gives rise to growth. The reason for this hopes for its milder course, confirmation of which are in the form of preliminary studies (the latest study from South Africa showed that the probability of being hospitalized, picking up an omicron, is 80% less than in the case of the same Delta). And the answer to the question of what to do with the omicron is news, like the approval of a magic pill from Pfizer, by drinking which you can overcome the virus inside yourself. At the same time, the markets do not pay attention to 100K per day of sick in Britain or, even worse, news from China, which continues to remain faithful to its principle of zero tolerance to a pandemic and on this occasion sent 13 million residents of Xi'an to lockdown. Meanwhile, the worst is yet to come: a new peak of the pandemic is expected by the end of next month. While retail investors buy whatever is bad, American billionaires continue to sell stocks. By early December 2021, they had sold $ 42.9 billion in shares, more than double the $ 20.2 billion sold for all of 2020. Why? According to their financial advisors, it's simple: customers look at prices and believe the market is at the top.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Lira Explodes, USD Dominates the Foreign Exchange MarketWe mainly viewed the change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States through the prism of the US stock market. But if someone loses, then someone should also win. And that someone is the US dollar. In general, 2021 turned out to be successful for the American currency: the dollar strengthened against all the currencies of the G-10 countries. At the same time, in our opinion, the growth potential has not yet been fully exhausted. In the context of interest rate differentials, its further growth against the New Zealand dollar or the same pound does not look as unambiguous as, for example, against the euro or the Japanese yen. The sale of the Turkish lira looks quite promising after its epic growth at the start of this week. Let us remind you that the economic insanity of Erdogan this year cost the lira very dearly: the currency has depreciated threefold. The sharp rise on Monday is associated with the announcement by the President of Turkey of unprecedented measures to support the national currency. For example, the country's government will reimburse the owners of bank deposits in lira if the Turkish currency falls in price by an amount that exceeds the interest on deposits. In addition, the tax rate on investments in bonds denominated in lira will be reduced from 10% to 0%. And, of course, inflation will decrease in a few months. All this, of course, is great, but how the bloodless Turkish economy will pay for these and other initiatives is not very clear. But it is clear that there is no trust in the lira and will not exist until Erdogan reads at least a couple of basic textbooks on economics. The energy crisis continues in the meantime. Gas prices in Europe have renewed new records, surpassing 2000 per thousand cubic meters. For substitute goods, including oil, this is good news, but last time the rise in gas prices in the 2000 region in Europe was of an exclusively temporary nature, and in just a few days prices then collapsed by more than 50%. So you shouldn't rush to buy oil - on the contrary, its growth is a reason for more expensive sales.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
MRK has a lot of headline potential from hereHeadline Potential Merck has three drugs currently under priority FDA review, one of them a Covid-19 drug: Molnupiravir, an antiviral for Covid-19 which has received a positive opinion from the advisory board and which Merck's CEO says should work against any variant Vaxneuvance, a pneumococcal vaccine Lynparza, a breast cancer drug Merck also continues to make strong headway with Keytruda, an immunotherapy, which recently picked up another approval in Japan. All of this means that Merck has a lot of headline potential in coming weeks, especially at a time when a new Covid-19 variant is spreading across the world. There's quite a bit of options activity in Merck today as traders place bets ahead of the news. Technicals and Sentiment Merck is currently near support from a long-term trend line and from the 200-day EMA. It has 26% upside to the average analyst price target and a bullish put/call ratio of .43. It has an average analyst rating of 9.3/10, which is very high. It gets an above average ESG score of 2.25/3. Value S&P Global gives Merck's fundamentals an average score of 90/100. IIt's currently trading -1.4 standard deviations below where it usually trades in relation to its major moving averages. Forward dividend yield is about 3.7%, forward P/E just over 11, forward P/S about 3.4. The price to free cash flow ratio is fairly high, at over 20, but that has to be interpreted in light of the other multiples. estimate that Merck has about 18% upside to its average price multiple of the last 3 years. Its earnings outlook is highly positive; I score its growth forecast a 5/6.
NYSE:MRKLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
9