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Supply/Demand Analytics on 2024 Oil: IEA-EIA Demand ProjectionDear Esteemed Members, There are several fundamental factors that could support the oil price reaching $76.09 per barrel, which is the highest level since November 2014. As the global economy rebounds from the pandemic, the demand for oil is expected to increase, especially in the second half of 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will grow by 5.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, reaching 99.6 million bpd by the end of the year. The OPEC+ group of oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has been maintaining a cautious approach to increasing output, in order to balance the market and avoid oversupply. The group agreed in April to gradually raise production by 2.1 million bpd between May and July, but this is still below the pre-pandemic levels of output. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has voluntarily cut an extra 1 million bpd from its production since February, which it plans to phase out by July. The US shale industry, which was hit hard by the price collapse in 2020, has been showing signs of discipline and prudence, focusing on improving cash flow and shareholder returns rather than expanding production. The US oil rig count, a proxy for drilling activity, has increased by about 100 rigs since the start of the year, but it is still more than 300 rigs lower than a year ago. The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will average 11.2 million bpd in 2024, which is 0.3 million bpd lower than in 2020. The oil market is always susceptible to geopolitical tensions and conflicts that could disrupt supply or create uncertainty. Some of the current hotspots include Iran, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela. Iran, which has been under US sanctions that limit its oil exports, is engaged in indirect talks with the US to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which could lead to a lifting of sanctions and a return of Iranian oil to the market. However, the outcome of the negotiations is uncertain and could face opposition from hardliners in both countries. Libya, which has been plagued by civil war and instability, has seen its oil production fluctuate due to frequent attacks and blockades on its oil facilities. The country is currently producing around 1.2 million bpd, but it faces challenges in maintaining and increasing its output amid political and security risks. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is facing social unrest and militant attacks that could affect its oil infrastructure and exports. The country is also struggling to implement a long-awaited reform of its oil sector, which could improve its governance and attract investment. Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has seen its oil industry collapse due to mismanagement, corruption, and US sanctions. The country’s oil production has fallen from over 3 million bpd in the late 1990s to less than 0.5 million bpd in 2020. Kind Regards, Ely
TVC:USOILLong
by Elysian_Mind
EUR/USD Analysis Summary:Price & Pattern: EUR/USD at 1.08397. 4H chart shows double top rejection, followed by resistance breakout—bearish indication. Technical Implications: Pattern suggests potential bearish reversal, favoring sellers. Demand Zone: Approaching demand zone, but bearish bias persists. FOMC Impact: Pending FOMC news could strengthen USD (DXY index)—further downside pressure on EUR/USD likely. Anticipated Movement: Downside risk prevails, especially post-FOMC, aiming for bearish targets. If you like my idea please boost comment and follow for more informative ideas thanks for support
by Alexview009
#Oil possible more bearish moveThe bearish move that we see in this chart, which started on September 28th, has formed two bearish channels, preventing the price from going higher seven times so far. As you can see on Friday, January 12th, with the geopolitical news from the Red Sea conflict, the price attempted to form a bullish breakout of the smaller channel but got rejected from the larger channel. As a result of this rejection, not only did the price form a daily shooting star candlestick pattern , but also the bullish breakout now seems like a false breakout, signaling the potential for further bearish movement in oil. We can also see that we have a bearish trendline on Stochastic oscillator which also bring more selling pressure on this commodity. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by mohemati
Lessons of Trading by News - MMTC - "Let it" or "Delist it" ???Time and again the stock market gets some knee jerk reaction from Investors based on some Hot News. But most news are shortlived and forgotten in forthcoming days. One such interesting counter is MMTC - A PSU Mineral Trading Company with 89% stake with Govt of India. Technical Analysis: Monthly - Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern indicating a Multi-bagger return Our initial position was at 61.55 levels and booked profit around 87-88 in just 1 month The primary reason to book profits was due to a Hot News in October from Govt that they are going to De-list the company. The counter eroded all gains within same month and fell below our entry point. For next 2 months - there is no News about de-listing - no progress - and all the Hype settled down and now when I look at the charts - its back to its beauty. You won't even remember that something happened in Oct looking at the chart now. The Original Tech pattern (Inv H&S) is still perfectly intact MMTC is once again on the verge of Breaking Out the Inv H&S pattern. It has to settle above 68 WCB for neckline BO confirmation Further it also has to close above 72 WCB for resistance BO and further upside CAUTION: New Entrants / Safe Players - please AVOID this counter. There is still no clarity on delisting process from Govt. Existing players hold for further gains and make most out of this until you see a significant reversal Disclaimer: Stocks-n-Trends is NOT a SEBI registered company. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi--timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions. If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
NSE:MMTCLong
by Stocks-n-Trends
Post-Interest Rates... 🏁--> Momentum Push? USD Interest rates helped to pull EURUSD back for better prices. Euro interest rates was the catalyst for a +1% increase in the EURUSD currency pair. The WeekIy candle can push a bit more to end off the week. We usually have a bunch of liquid just past extreme highs and that is what I am explaining on the chart. This is a price action concept. took buys at the beginning of the move and took my humble 14 pips. Anticipating a continuation of price to the upside with consumer sentiment tomorrow. It is expected to improve over the prior data point two weeks ago for the USD. Given the massive buy volume it is difficult for me to visualize that the current daily candle will not attempt at lease so some of push towards the next daily level 1.098 Daily Resistance Level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
⛔️EURUSD important UPDATE before big news release!!Please see related ideas for better context, everything else is in the video. But in short - we will have a lot of manipulative moves during the next two days. See why in the video. 👋 Disclaimer: All ideas here are for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Your trades are yours only, and your complete responsibility. I'm not particularly bullish or bearish on any given instrument, and I don't have a "fixed" bias. I'm just following the strategy I learned from my teachers and that's all. We can have completely different views on the market and still both make profits. Everything here should be treated as a simulation. 👉I believe a trader doesn't need to predict anything, so the "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live. He's right only when he executes the system, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, and share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
by Yelli_trades
10
STEP 2 to MASTER TRADING: what to do with the NEWS. NEWS BRING TERRIBLE TRADING CONDITIONS During release, spread is all over the place, in addition you can easily miss the fill. So actually worst time you can enter a position is on a release itself, hoping price will rise or fall. But usually, price will make massive moves up and down, liquidating hopeful "news traders" before going in either of direction. So next time when you will regret you were not involved in the news move, just remember that you would not have a good entry point anyway. PRICE CAN GAP BELOW YOUR STOPLOSS Another really important thing to keep in mind is that very often during red news, price can momentarily and significantly gap, and now instead of your breakeven or usual -1RR, you'll have -2 or -3RR, and what's worse - you'll have a big drawdown in your emotional capital. ILLUSION OF UNDERSTANDING Sometimes beginners, and even advanced traders, fall into this illusion. Someone reads 5 articles about a specific news type, and now begins to think they understand how the news will effect the market. In reality, each trading instrument is effected by hunderds of factors, and anyone who wants to understand them, should spend months, even years with that one instrument, learning literally everything about it and what effects it. Everything else is just gambling or being naive. EFFECT HAPPENS BEFORE THE RELEASE If you've being familiar with smart money or institutional trading, ideas of Wyckoff, you'll know that institutions position themselves long time before news release, during accumulations and distributions. Market structure gets established long before actual realease, and what news do are just producement of sporadic moves, grabs of liquidity and easy manipulations. But only 0.01% of news actually change pre-established structure and starts a new trend, big picture doesn't change because of news. What actually starts a move and a trend are accumulations and distributions, and news really can be a part of it, but only a small part. SO WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE NEWS? 1. Check red news releases during your day. Don't enter 15-30 min. before and after the news. 2. If you're already in a trade, and price came relatively close to your entry, it's better to close out the position now, because remember that price can gap below your stoploss. 3. If you're positioned in profit significantly away from the price, leave the position open. So to recap everything above, you need to trade YOUR SYSTEM, YOUR EDGE - for me it's structure, SnD and confirmations - but also we need to acknoledge the short term chaotic news effect, and use our knowledge to manage risk and that's all. Hope this post give you better understanding what should you do in order to become a successful trader. I will be grateful if you support this post by smashing the BOOST button and sharing it with other traders. Thank you! Dima
BINANCE:BNBUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
PINS: Activist could change fortunes?Pinterest Short Term - We look to Buy at 18.86 (stop at 16.57) This stock has recently been in the news headlines with hedge fund Elliot Management reported to have taken 9% stake in the social media company. The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Support is located at 18.00 and should stem dips to this area. We look to buy dips. Our profit targets will be 24.90 and 27.00 Resistance: 25.00 / 28.00 / 36.00 Support: 17.00 / 12.00 / 6.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’ ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:PINSLong
by VantageMarkets
1
Chronicles of Stress, Iran and Oil,Stock Market and the FedEveryone on this planet seems to know about the current situation around Ukraine and Russia, so we will not retell the latest news and events. We only note that there is always a chance to stop the escalation. However, from the position of game theory in the current situation, it is more profitable to be a pessimist, because you will either be right or gladly wrong. But back to market realities. We have already written more than once that the main reference points are oil and gold. So yesterday, both assets updated local highs. And oil has generally updated its highs since 2014. Which means that we are still at the stage of deterioration. Recall that oil and gold prices have inflated mainly due to the expectation of a war, and its absence is a reason for a serious price correction. Moreover, a serious reason for sales may soon appear on the oil market: negotiations with Iran seem to be moving towards a happy ending. And this, in turn, means an increase in supply in the oil market. The stock market continues to be under pressure. And his future looks very bleak. Even if we are all lucky, and the topic of war is, if not closed, then postponed, which will formally be a reason for rising prices in the US stock market, the attention of the markets will immediately switch to the March meeting of the Fed and optimism will quickly give way to despondency. In general, selling in the US stock market has been and remains the basic trading idea for us.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
On the Rising Oil Prices Patterns and Reasons for SellingWe already wrote that the level of geopolitical tension is now easiest to assess not even by the usual VIX Index (aka Fear Index), but by the dynamics of oil and gold prices. So yesterday, both assets were growing, hinting that we are entering the next local peak. But imagine that common sense has not gone away. He is here, he is with us, and no one is going to start fighting either globally or locally. And after that, let's ask ourselves the question: "How fair is the current price of oil?" Yes, in 2020-2021, OPEC+ confidently provided an imbalance in the oil market in favor of an artificial shortage of the asset. Which naturally pushed oil prices up. Then in the fall of 2021, Europe, and then the world, was covered by an energy crisis. Oil, being a basic energy asset, could not pass by and quite naturally grew in price. The start of 2022 is the most powerful information attack at the global level on the subject of war between Russia and Ukraine. Which is fraught, for example, with sanctions against Russia and its hydrocarbons. Since Russia produces 10+ mb/d of oil, i.e. over 10% of the global supply on the market, the growth of the asset again looks natural and justified. And everything seems to be logical and natural. And under the worst-case scenario, the trends will clearly continue and intensify. But back to the assumption that the world has not gone mad. Let's take the position of optimists. So, in this case, it will be necessary to start at least to remove the "war premium" from the price of oil. And this is over $20 per barrel (see the dynamics of oil prices from December 2021 to the current time). Winter is coming to an end, and the Olympics are already over. That is, the energy crisis is rapidly losing its relevance: no one froze, there was enough gas for everyone, which means that there were fewer reasons to hysteria, to put it mildly. And don't forget about OPEC+. Since August 2021, production has increased by 400K b/d every month. That is, the supply on the market has already increased by 3+ million b/d. This is what we are for. And to the fact that you can take advantage of the current situation and earn. The sale of oil should give at least 20-30 dollars of earnings per barrel. Well, if the pessimistic scenario works out, then there will be no time for losses on this transaction, because there will be more important problems.
TVC:UKOILShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Week in a Glance: War, Inflation and the Fed, Retail SalesLast week, the information tension around Russia and Ukraine reached its local peak, since February 16 was the date the US announced the start of the war. Despite the fact that the date has passed without any excesses, the shadow of the war has tightly covered the financial markets and is not thinking of retreating yet. Perhaps the two main indicators of the level of information tension are the dynamics of oil and gold prices. With oil, everything is clear, since 10+ million barrels per day of production are at stake. And gold finally remembered that it is an eternal safe-haven asset, and the demand for it has been increased all week. So if anyone believes in the markets and their ability to respond as sensitively and quickly as possible to the slightest changes in the information field, then here's what you need to look at in order to understand when it will be possible to breathe a sigh of relief. Oil will fall and gold will begin to decline, which means the worst is behind us. But, unfortunately, we start the week at close to maximum levels for both assets. As for the stock market, it still should not be used as a pure indicator. Yes, it is also under downward pressure. But it still has its own separate story in the form of a change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States. And last week, the markets received a number of signals in favor of the fact that the tightening promises to be quite aggressive and very soon. Both the minutes of the last FOMC meeting and data on manufacturing inflation in the US spoke in favor of this. Considering that in other countries, for example, in the UK, the situation is no better (inflation is at its highest levels over the past 30-40 years), as in Canada, the downward pressure on the US stock market can be explained not only by geopolitical risks. At the same time, we note that positive news and an optimistic mood are not in the price now. Retail sales in the US showed solid growth, which turned out to be much higher than expected. But, judging by the reaction of the markets, it was of little interest to anyone. As is the reporting season, which is coming to an end in the US. The upcoming week is unlikely to change pessimism to optimism. The shadow of war, judging by Biden's latest comments, is only getting denser so far. But every day without a fight increases the chances that it will remain informational. In terms of the economy, this week we are waiting for the decision of the Central Bank of New Zealand, which is expected to raise the rate again. And if the comments are aggressive enough, the New Zealand dollar will very likely be in high demand in the foreign exchange market. In addition, there will be a host of less important macroeconomic statistics such as PMIs in Europe or data on personal income and spending in the US.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Is It Time to Buy in the US Stock Market?Due to the fact that the Dow Jones index showed the worst day in 2022 yesterday, and Nasdaq has lost about 15% over the past month and a half, more and more investors are interested in the question: “Isn't it time to start buying?”. Outwardly, the question looks more than natural: “buy the dip” is one of the pillars of investing, and if we put “fear of missing out” on top of it, we get an extremely explosive mixture, having accepted which it is difficult for investors to resist the temptation to bribe cheaper. Cathy Woods adds fuel to the fire by telling how cheap everything is now. Well, yes, part of the shares of her portfolio lost 70% or more. So really, it's cheaper. But if we look deeper into the very essence of things, then we see the obvious answer to this question: “no, the time has not come yet.” The vector of the Fed's monetary policy is just beginning to change direction (however, it is doing it quite rapidly: after the publication of the FOMC protocols on Wednesday, the markets are now expecting 6 (!) rate hikes in 2022), the remnants of fiscal and monetary steroids are quickly disappearing from the market organism, and ahead life without an injection awaits us, and on the contrary, there is reason to expect a tightening of not only monetary, but also fiscal policy (the fight against the budget deficit, tax increases and a host of other amenities, after which it will be more and more difficult for the stock market to grow, and it will become easier to fall). And there is, after all, its geopolitics with potentially very negative outcomes. Yes, potential, but unlikely, but the mood from this is not improving on the markets yet (see the dynamics of prices for gold and other safe-haven assets). And the question of whether the US stock market has become cheap is actually extremely rhetorical. No, it didn't come cheap. It is still very expensive. More expensive than ever in its history. It's expensive even compared to the dot-com bubble. And then, we recall, upon its collapse, the Nasdaq index lost about 80%. So 15% is just the beginning of a long way down. Ahead is not only denial and bargaining, but also depression. So we are waiting. We are waiting for hopelessness and despondency in the market. And when they become dominant, that's when it's time to buy.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, Pound, Inflation and OilThe main event of yesterday in terms of news, of course, was the absence of war. As a result, the mood on the eve of the publication of data on retail sales in the US was optimistic. Markets were expecting US retail sales to rise 2%. But the fact exceeded the most optimistic expectations: retail sales rose by 3.8% in January. The reasons are not only the growth of consumer activity, but also inflation. So the markets were in no hurry to rejoice in anticipation of the publication of the text of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. The US Central Bank did not keep itself waiting and reminded that the rate hike in March is a settled issue, and the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet is not far off. In general, buying on the stock market now is too risky and premature. Markets must absorb the fact of the change in the vector of monetary policy, as well as the speed and scale of this. Among other news, it is worth noting inflation data from the UK. As usual, the facts exceeded expectations: consumer prices rose by 5.5% over the year, and industrial inflation came out at the American level of 9.9%. That is, inflation in the country is at 30-year highs. As a result, there is every reason to expect further aggression from the Bank of England. In this light, we recall our idea to sell the EURGBP pair, counting on the growth of the interest rate differential in favor of the pound and its subsequent strengthening against the euro. A little bit of the oil market in the end. We have already written that oil growth in recent years was mainly associated with geopolitical instability, and before that, the inability of OPEC + to increase production caused concern. So, if the first factor, apparently, will lose relevance in the foreseeable future, the second, on the contrary, can increase it. Just yesterday, the International Energy Agency released a number of figures clarifying the current state of affairs. The 10 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which are subject to quotas, produced 23.9 million barrels per day in January, compared with a target of 24.6 million barrels per day, according to the IEA. In general, when the dust of the information war settles, it is OPEC + that will determine the future of the oil market and prices on it. We remain optimistic in the sense that we believe in the market rebalancing and the upcoming deep price correction. The price of $100 per barrel now does not suit everyone, because it continues to accelerate inflation and even the OPEC countries, no matter how paradoxical it may sound, are interested in reducing price pressure. Well, let us recall that high prices give rise to the activation of American oil producers. U.S. shale crude oil production is expected to rise by 109,000 bpd in March to over 8.7 million bpd.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
2
If There's No War, Then Where Will the Prices Go?Yesterday, the markets continued to expect a war between Russia and Ukraine, but the level of confidence in its prospects began to decline. And behind it, oil and gold quotes began to decline, as well as stock markets to grow. In addition, prices for natural gas and agricultural products (grain) were falling. Considering that the current prices largely took into account a certain probability of the transition of the information war into the actual one, the lack of realization of these expectations is a reason for price correction. So the sale of oil and gold seems to us quite a promising undertaking this week. Unless, of course, you believe that the escalation will subside further. Otherwise, avoid this venture or even do everything exactly the opposite. The fact that Russia withdrew part of its troops from the border does not really mean anything. So we continue to follow the development of events, while not forgetting that there is also the economy with its laws and indicators. So, employment in the eurozone in the last quarter of 2021 exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and unemployment in the region generally reached a record low in December. The times of pandemic restrictions seem to be coming to an end as more and more countries are not only not implementing lockdowns, but rather lifting restrictions, even such as wearing masks. And finally, about the US stock market. Its growth under a friendly exhalation of relief is almost inevitable, but, in our opinion, it will be short-term and will last exactly as long as the Fed does not return it to the ground with reminders of monetary tightening. So we use growth as an opportunity to sell higher. Moreover, yesterday's data on manufacturing inflation in the US grew much stronger than forecasts.
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Trade24Fx
Bullard Raises Stakes as Gold and Oil Prepare for WarAnd although traditionally all the headlines are devoted to divination around Ukraine, we should not forget about the tectonic shifts taking place in the global financial system. This, of course, is about changing the vectors of the monetary policies of the Central Banks and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve. So St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that by July the Fed's rate should be raised by at least 1% in order to curb inflation. As a result, according to CME, the markets estimate about 55% chance that this year the rate will increase seven (!) times. In our opinion, this entire information war around Russia’s attack on Ukraine is an attempt to divert attention from what is happening in the financial markets, and at the same time write off falling stock market prices for a war, albeit possible, albeit in the minds. Who is now blaming the Fed for the fall of the same Nasdaq by more than 2,000 points over the past month or so? But God bless them with conspiracy theories. For their main charm is that they can be generated indefinitely, but they don’t give much real understanding of what is happening. On the other hand, looking at the dynamics of oil and gold, it is obvious that even a virtual war should not be ignored as long as the markets believe in its real embodiment. Oil continues to creep towards $100 per barrel of Brent. As we believe the information war has reached its peak, oil prices are also at their peak.
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: Inflation and Rates, Oil & Earnings SeasonLast week was remembered first of all by the inflation statistics from the USA. No joke, 7.5% growth in consumer prices. This has not happened since the early 1980s. Actually, after such figures, it became completely clear to everyone that inflation would not disappear by itself and strong antipyretic drugs were needed. This, of course, is about raising rates by the Fed. No one is talking about the start of the increase in May or June, as it was a couple of months ago. The question on the agenda is not “will the Fed raise rates in March?” but “by how much will the Fed raise rates in March?”. And judging by the latest projections, 0.25% is no longer an option. Minimum 0.5%. Not surprisingly, the US stock market failed at the end of last week. Note that, given the current development of events, this decline is only the beginning of the movement, and not the end. Yes, the reporting season helps and keeps the ranks of buyers from falling apart completely, but there will be less unity as the quarterly data period ends and as the X hour in March approaches. The lion's share of the rise in inflation is accounted for by rising energy prices. And the markets pay surprisingly little attention to this moment. After all, it is obvious that in order to combat such a serious inflation, it is necessary to use all available methods, including, for example, reducing pressure on the energy asset market. At the end of last year, the US has already made efforts in the form of a coordinated attack on the oil market in the form of interventions. But this, obviously, was not enough. The next ace up the US sleeve is Iran. There is a feeling that there will be a nuclear deal and oil supply may increase by 1-2 million barrels per day, at least in the short term. But the markets are somehow not at all worried about this, but in vain. The coming week will be rich in macroeconomic statistics: retail sales in the world's leading economies, plus inflation in the US, China, the UK and Canada, as well as the GDP of the Eurozone are unlikely to relax.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Inflation Keeps on Hitting Records as Bond Yields RiseThe main event of yesterday can undoubtedly be considered the publication of inflationary data from the US (consumer inflation). We already wrote that given the current prices for energy resources, industrial metals and agricultural products, as well as their dynamics (permanent growth) and the dynamics of wages, one cannot count on a reduction in inflationary pressure. So yesterday's data showed that the problem itself will not resolve. 7.5% annual price growth for the US is something unprecedented. Unseen for a good 40 years. Note that this is even higher than analysts' forecasts, who expected a 7.3% growth. This news is definitely not in the hands of buyers in the US stock market, if only because the Fed has less and less time and room to maneuver. An increase in the rate in March is already seen as something inevitable and it is quite likely that the rate will be increased not by 0.25%, but immediately by 0.5% (if before the publication of yesterday's data, the probability of this was estimated at about 25%, now it is 92%). And the rise in US Treasury yields (10-year yields have surpassed 2%) makes us wonder if it is worth buying overpriced stocks, exposing ourselves to the risk of a bubble burst, if you can get a guaranteed 2% with formally zero risk. There are still few sellers on the oil market. This was partly helped by the latest OPEC report, which says that global oil demand will grow by 4.15 million bpd in 2022 after a sharp increase of 5.7 million bpd in 2021. Apparently, the fate of the oil market will be decided at the supply level: will OPEC + continue to increase production further and is this structure really able to increase supply, by how much will the US increase production in 2022 and, finally, will they come to an agreement with Iran, and if so, how much additional oil will be on the market. The fate of oil will depend on the answers to these questions.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Are Problems Over? Data from the US May Give a HintA couple of months ago, we wrote about the main threats to the global economy and financial markets in 2022. Inflation, a pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains - that's what worried market participants around the world. And although 2022 has just begun, there is a feeling that thanks to Omicron, with its super contagiousness, with relatively mild consequences, the pandemic will stop for the foreseeable future. Commenting on disruptions in the global logistics system, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, which handles nearly a fifth of the world's container shipping, said the disruption could stop in just a few months. As far as inflation is concerned, everything is less rosy here. But the Central Banks have clearly entered the warpath and, in theory, the situation will stabilize after a while. However, even today, data from the US may remind that this problem is still far from being resolved. Moreover, commodity markets are at multi-year highs. According to Goldman Sachs Group analysts, there is a shortage of absolutely everything, from oil and metals to agricultural products. And if so, then it is somewhat naive to expect any serious price reduction in such conditions. In general, we monitor not only the actions of the Central Banks, but also prices in the commodity markets. And what else is worth monitoring is the situation in the automotive sector. If over the past couple of years food prices have increased by an average of 5%+, for energy - by about 10%, then for used cars the increase was about 23%. This, in turn, is a derivative of the shortage of chips and the underproduction of cars, the scale of which is in the millions. So the growth in car production will be one of the signals in favor of an early reduction in inflationary pressure.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
Bank of America and 7 Rate Hikes, Iran and OilOn Thursday, another portion of inflation statistics from the United States will be published, and Bank of America, anticipating its next increase, announced its forecast for the number of Fed rate hikes in 2022. The number of expected promotions is impressive - 7 pieces. This is the most aggressive forecast to date from leading experts. As an additional motivation, Bank of America analysts cite Friday's data on the US labor market, which, among other things, showed a sharp increase in wages in the US (by 0.7% in January to 5.7% per annum), which was the highest since March 2007. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are rising, as are the chances of a rate hike in March. Moreover, the probability that it will be increased not by 0.25%, but immediately by 0.5% has already approached 40%. But that didn't stop the US stock market from rising yesterday. The main reason for growth is the quarterly reporting of corporations, which, although in some cases raises questions, but for the most part, it turns out to be excellent. However, if you wish, you can find a negative. For example, analysts at Wells Fargo note that the profit margin compared to the third quarter, and a number of large companies in the reports mention the threat of inflation. Well, do not forget that many companies did not give forecasts for future quarters and the year as a whole. Which indicates their uncertainty about financial results in the future. Oil yesterday was under pressure, but not facts, but rather their expectations. I mean negotiations with Iran. While they are in the process and took a ten-day break. But according to rumors, there is progress, which means that in the event of sanctions from the United States, serious volumes of additional oil supply may appear on the market at once. According to various estimates, from 0.5 to 2 million b/d.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Oil Market Backwardation and Medium-term ProspectsThe start of 2022 turned out to be extremely successful for the oil market (since the beginning of the year, oil has added about 20%). Although many predicted that the market would go from deficit to surplus by this time, apparently this has not yet happened. At least, the presence of backwardation in the oil market speaks in favor of this. Recall that backwardation is a situation in the futures market, in which prices for goods with immediate delivery are higher than quotations for futures contracts, and prices for futures with short terms are higher than quotations for distant positions. So yesterday, with the spot price of oil on the market around 93, the nearest futures (March 2022) were quoted at 91.7, April - at 90, and May in general at 88.50. What does it say? The fact that here and now there is not enough oil and buyers are ready to overpay. We already wrote that one of the reasons for this state of affairs was the inability of OPEC + to fully fulfill its obligations to increase oil production. Plus the energy crisis, plus the winter, plus the growth in demand. In general, almost everyone needs oil here and now. Nevertheless, speaking about the prospects, we continue to believe that oil sales are an excellent medium-term (from six months to a year in position) deal. OPEC+ has been increasing production by 400K b/d every month since August, albeit nominally in places. In the US, the number of active oil installations (the number has almost tripled since pandemic lows) and production (rose from 10 million in September 2020 to 10.7 million at the start of 2021) are growing and are doing it more and more actively as prices rise. Negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran are ongoing and the US even plans to lift some of the sanctions. The recovery in demand is nearing completion, and the immediate future of the global economy does not look all that bright. Yes, and the energy crisis as the winter ends and the growth of gas transit from Russia will clearly decrease in scale. In general, the current prices look like a great opportunity to sell at a higher price.
TVC:UKOILShort
by Trade24Fx