Get started

Newsbackground

Fed's decision and dollar reaction, the CB of Japan and EnglandFed Decision: Interest rates cut by 25 basis points after FOMC meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the rate to 0,25%. FOMC does not have a fixed position: some members believe in further reduction, other members voted against any further reduction at this meeting. So could observe the lack of dollar sales. Different positions are understandable. In the last couple of weeks, the US economy has shown good outcome, so the Fed may well take a break in easing cycle. As for the USA. Statistics on the real estate market in the United States were published yesterday. The figures came out more than good. So, the start of construction indicator increased by 12.3% m/m (forecasts + 5%), and building permits in August grew by 7.7% m/m (analysts expected an average decrease of 1.3%). In general, talking about a downtrend in the dollar is premature, and even a correction in the dollar value is in question. However, today we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar. Today, the Bank of Japan has traditionally left monetary policy parameters unchanged. The Bank of Switzerland is also expected to leave the rate unchanged. However, both of these Central Banks are pursuing an ultra-soft monetary policy, there is simply nowhere to lower rates. The Bank of Japan has not yet held a press conference following the meeting when we were completing news background. If there are no surprises, then our position is to buy the Japanese yen today. First of all, against the dollar and the euro. The pound was under pressure yesterday. This was due to both statements by the EU that the risk of exit without a deal and macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Consumer inflation came out below per cent. Weak inflation on the eve of the Bank of England decision announcement on the parameters of monetary policy is a sign for pound sellers activation. Total up to the verdict announcement we prefer to stay away from pound positions. Moreover, before that, data on retail sales in the UK will be published. Since the Bank of England will announce the decision today, we will present our adjusted position on the pound tomorrow. In the end, the pound is not the only instrument for trading. Gold purchases from local lows continue to be relevant. As well as oil sales from local highs. The situation with Saudi Arabia seems to have stabilized and markets generally calmed down.
by Trade24Fx
Preparing for Fed verdict, analyzing the state of the oil marketThe attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure led to the biggest jump in global prices. The correction was not observed until the American session started. We recommended on Tuesday to open short positions in oil because we were confident in the corrective movement and the end, the recommendation justified itself at 100%. In just 10 minutes, oil lost over 4%. The reason for the decline was the information that Saudi Arabia has officially confirmed - production capacity will be restored by the end of September. And to compensate for losses in production associated with the attack, the Saudis will increase production up to 12 million bpd by the end of October. So those of our readers who trust our experience and analytics should have made good money. As for trading on the oil market today, then after the strongest fall yesterday, everything looks rather ambiguous. And although we continue to incline toward asset sales you should be careful with that. As for the Fed and the Open Market Committee. An event that was devoid of intrigue just a couple of weeks ago (100% of traders set a minimum rate reduction of 0.25) may surprise. The current probability of a Fed rate cut is slightly above 60%. And if you take into account that yesterday's data on industrial production in the USA were frankly surprising: 0.6% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m and July outcome -0.1% m / m, the Fed can keep the rate unchanged. Our position remains unchanged. We expect the rate to be lowered by 0.25%. There are enough reasons for this: an interest rate reduction by ECB rate last week, a deterioration of the US labor market and the US economy condition as a whole, threat of a global recession and intensified trade war, multiplied by the risk of a US military campaign in Iran - all of this obliges the Fed to act and reduce the interest rate to prevent the US economy downfall. Anyway, reinsurance is better than solve the consequences duo to the lack of action. Accordingly, our position on the dollar today is also unchanged - we will sell it. At the same time, we do not forget the euro and its movement after the ECB meeting last week. The probability of false movements is great and it is extremely important to follow a predetermined plan. But at the same time, it is worthwhile to put stops so as not to go against the market will. In addition to the decision of the Fed and the subsequent explosion of volatility in the foreign exchange market, it is worth paying attention to inflation data from the UK and Canada. As for the UK. Despite Johnson's unsuccessful meeting in Luxembourg, the pound did not react that much. This means that we will continue to look for an opportunity to buy the British pound. First of all, against the euro and the US dollar. The tactics of buying gold in the area of local lows continue to be justified, so we will continue to adhere to it today.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
US oil prices had their biggest spike. How to earn on it?US oil prices had their biggest spike. Oil prices soar after attacks on Saudi facilities and ended nearly 15% higher on Monday. Abruptly ceased more than 5.7 million barrels per day of production. We consider this situation a unique opportunity for earning. The fact is that the disappearance of 5 million b / d of oil is a temporary phenomenon. According to some estimates, most of them will return to the market in the coming days. Also, Trump is ready to sell oil from US strategic reserves to stabilize the market. Accordingly, the current growth is an emotional reaction. So oil will be adjusted. Given the scale of yesterday's growth, the correction will also be significant. So today we recommend oil sales. It may be necessary to be in the position for several days, but the goal is clearly worth the time spent. Another opportunity for earning. The Russian ruble entered the sales zone. The next round of sales (final) we will start with 62.50 (unless, of course, the price reaches these marks). And finally, the recommendation to buy gold and other safe-haven assets is also relevant in the light of current events. The US has already managed to blame Iran for the attack, so in theory, the situation could be developed. Meanwhile, financial markets received another batch of evidence in favor of the global economic slowdown. This time, China gave cause for disappointment and concern. Industrial production in Sino grew by 4.4%, which is the minimum increase since 2002 (!). So if the oil shock goes on, the chances of a global recession will increase. Today is formally out of surprises. It is worth paying only to industrial production in the USA. But in general, markets are beginning to prepare for the Fed results announcement. But we’ll talk about it tomorrow. And today, we note that dollar sales are still one of our priorities in trade.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Central Banks Week Ahead: Our Expectations and Trading PlansECB president, Mario Draghi unveiled a package of measures to ease monetary policy: the rate was reduced, and new asset purchases were announced. The euro initially reacted “classically” - with a decline, but then on Thursday evening and Friday was growing steadily. A similar thing was observed last week with the Turkish lira, which sharply strengthened after the Central Bank of Turkey reduced its rate by 375 (!) Basis points. This reaction can be explained by the fact that now the absence of a recession in the future is more important for markets than a drop in profitability. So, we cannot wait to watch the dollar reaction to the Fed decision on Wednesday. The rate is likely to be lowered, but how the dollar will react is unclear. Of course, we will sell it, but keep in mind the variant of an illogical reaction. What we recommend to do in the future, we believe the dollar is doomed to decline. Reasons for its sales are understandable. The budget deficit that exceeded $ 1 trillion is enough to build apocalyptic theories and sell the dollar. This week will be rich in events related to the Central Banks. After Wednesday and the Fed’s decision, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Switzerland, and the Bank of England will announce their decisions on Thursday. Given the global trend towards easing monetary policy, surprises are likely from all the central banks mentioned above. So you need to be prepared for it. Therefore gold purchases continue to be a good trading idea. And this week we will continue to buy the asset on the intraday basis. Although Mario Draghi stated that the risks of a recession in Europe are insignificant, economic data suggest the opposite, as well as what the ECB does. So we will continue to sell euros this week. The general slowdown in the global economy is definitely against developing countries and markets. Russia seems to be particularly vulnerable in this regard, so we recommend selling the ruble. The pound continues to grow amid confidence in the markets that there will be no “hard” Brexit. Therefore continue to recommend its purchase.
Short
by Trade24Fx
What happens to euro, the price of Brexit and Trump's rebatesYesterday turned out to be busy and volatile. The ECB has eased monetary policy in the Eurozone. ECB cut the deposit rate by 0.1% to -0.50%, announced new purchases of assets (the ECB will buy government bonds at 20 billion euros per month, starting November 1). There was a signal - weak economic data: industrial production in the Eurozone in July fell by 0.4% (analysts expected a decrease of only 0.1%). Not surprisingly the euro fall against this background. Actually, in yesterday’s review, we predicted such a development of events and recommended selling the euro. So those of our readers who follow our recommendations should have made good money on euro sales. The amazing thing started after has gone down by more than 100 basis points. After Mario Draghi said that the probability of a recession is low, the euro went up. Despite this growth, we believe that the euro should be sold. In the end, on one side - facts (lower rates and buyback program expansion, weak economic data), and on the other - the words that everything is not that bad. So today we will sell the euro. First of all, against the yen and the pound. It was possible to earn on gold purchases yesterday. As we predicted, difficulties gold experienced were temporary and yesterday's growth is evidence of this. Gold growth took place from the information that Trump has delayed the use of part of the tariffs, and China has expressed its willingness to buy agricultural products from the United States. But even this could not stop the growth of gold. The same with the euro, Draghi's comments have so far turned the situation upside down. We do believe that the decline in gold value last night is a great opportunity to buy it cheaper. The UK government considered the possible consequences of a no-deal. In general, everything turned out to be not that good: lack of food and fuel, job loss, riots, problems in logistics, the closing of several oil refineries and so on. Once again confirms that the deal is important and needed. So the recommendation to buy the pound remains relevant. Also, data on consumer inflation in the US were published yesterday. They are very important since next Wednesday the Fed will announce its decision on monetary policy parameters. According to published statistics, US consumer inflation in August was 1.7% year-on-year, lower than the Fed’s forecasts and target. This means that the Fed’s hands have been untied to lower rates on Wednesday. For the dollar as a whole, this is a negative signal, so we recommend selling it. And a few words about the oil market. Sales in the past couple of days have been linked to Trump's hints that sanctions on Iran may be partially lifted. Since the oil market is already on the verge of surplus, the appearance of an additional 1-2 million barrels of oil per day will be a sentence for buyers
Short
by Trade24Fx
What to expect from ECB and what to do with the euro, US inflatiAnnouncement of the ECB decision on monetary policy in the Eurozone is what everybody waiting for. Analysts are expecting lowering rates, a new quantitative easing program (an increase in bond buybacks) and all kinds of support signals from the ECB for the European economy. What are the chances? In our opinion, the chances are high enough. The fact is that the Eurozone economy is sending more and more signals about problems and the upcoming recession. Recall the German GDP growth rate in the second quarter (below zero), negative retail sales in the Eurozone and business activity indices below 50. Everything is decisively in favor of the need for ECB intervention. And although representatives of the Central Bank are supporting fiscal stimulus, it is obvious that the ECB is expected to act. What does the softening of an already ultra-soft monetary policy mean for the euro? It means that the euro will be under pressure and it needs to be sold. Against the yen, against the pound and even against the dollar. At least that is what we plan to do today and possibly in the foreseeable future (the final position will depend on the actual decisions of the ECB). Also, today it is worth paying attention to data on consumer inflation in the United States. Recall that next Wednesday the Fed should decide whether to reduce the rate or not. In this light, inflationary data can either sow doubts or remove them completely. Weak data (low inflation) will make it clear to the Fed that you can safely reduce the rate. In the end, the central bank’s main goal is to control inflation, and then help to ensure economic growth. Accordingly, weak data will be another reason for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. Trump, meanwhile, continues to escalate, urging the Fed to lower rates to 0%. As for other trading ideas, we traditionally recommend buying gold and selling the Russian ruble. Pound purchases also remain a priority.
Short
by Trade24Fx
UK, oil news and gold forecastsWhen leading economies stably show statistics worse than analysts' forecasts and signal a slowdown in economic development, Britain continues to surprise with industrial production and GDP outcome on Monday, then on Tuesday, the statistics on the labor market turned out to be better than forecasts. In particular, the unemployment rate went below the forecast, and the average salary, on the contrary, exceeded experts' expectations. As the British Parliament temporary is not working, Johnson is in charge. After a series of humiliating defeats in the Parliament, the Prime Minister is seriously preparing for negotiations with the EU and a new deal. Although nothing has been decided yet, we continue to recommend buying British pound with stops. At least for now when the fundamental background is that favourable. The dollar strengthening in the foreign exchange market this week, in our opinion, is an excellent opportunity for selling the dollar when the price is high. The reason - the Fed will lower the rate next Wednesday, and this will be a powerful signal for dollar sales. Citigroup analysts, meanwhile, are predicting a bright future for gold, + $ 2,000 an ounce. The argumentation of the new historical lows: the growing risks of the global recession, the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and the zero interest rates of other central banks, geopolitical instability, as well as overheating of leading stock markets. In this light, we want to recall our basic recommendation to buy gold on the intraday basis. However, bears have temporarily are in charge, we do not see any serious changes in the fundamental background, which means that gold purchases remain relevant. Another favourite position is that oil sales are becoming more and more relevant every day. But this week we want to wait for the OPEC meeting outcome before offering to open short positions. The fact is that a change in the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia could lead to a temporary artificial increase in market prices. This will be due to the need to provide better conditions for the initial public offering of Aramco.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Euro and pound week, pressure on the dollar and weak NFPsBoris Johnson managed to turn into the worst premiere minister ever. His attempts to neutralize Parliament so he could complete Brexit by October 31 failed. As a result, Johnson lost a majority in Parliament. Why even Johnson’s brother disowned him left the Cabinet and the party. As we warned in our reviews, Johnson's defeats are pound’s strength. As a result, the pound after gaining lows since 2016, added about 400 points by the end of the week. So those of our readers who listen to our recommendations should have earned good money. As for the pound and Brexit. The legislation, which requires Johnson to ask for a three-month extension to Britain’s EU membership if parliament has not approved either a deal or consented to leave without agreement by Oct. 19, is expected to be signed into law by Queen Elizabeth on Monday. Readers could earn a couple of hundred points on our recommendation to buy AUDJPY. NFP data was the main statistical event of the past week. As we predicted, they turned out to be rather weak and below forecasts (+ 130K at the forecast + 160K). So, the dollar was under pressure. On September 18, the Fed is likely to lower the rate, and the dollar could be sold out. As for the Canadian dollar. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada did not reduce the rate, and then on Friday the Canadian labour market showed excellent results, as the Ivey PMI Business Activity Index did. So sales of the USDCAD, despite its decline by more than 200 points, look like a good trading opportunity. The euro and the pound can gain a lot this week. As for the pound, the confrontation between Parliament and Johnson will continue. Therefore pound volatility explosions are quite likely. As for the euro, the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting will be the main event. There are a lot of are waiting for a new round of monetary easing from the Central Bank. If a new program of quantitative easing and rate cuts would enter into force then the euro will be under pressure. This week we will continue to look for points for gold purchases as last week, this tactic showed great results. Do not forget to sell the Russian ruble (the Central Bank of the Russian Federation again reduced the rate), as well as oil (supply on the market is growing amid the threat of lower demand). This week we will continue to look for points for gold purchases as last week, this tactic showed great results. Do not forget to sell the Russian ruble (the Central Bank of the Russian Federation again reduced the rate), as well as oil (supply on the market is growing amid the threat of lower demand).
Long
by Trade24Fx
NFP, pound growth and goldEverything develops according to the scenario described earlier - Johnson’s defeat in Parliament is an occasion for the pound growth and its purchases. However, it’s too early to relax. Yes, the pound still has the opportunity to grow for not just a hundred points, but a thousand or even more. The key threat to the pound has not disappeared yet. So you should trade cautiously. There is every chance that the ban on exiting without a deal will acquire the status of the law, which means Johnson will not be able to do anything. Even his brother Joe denied Johnson. So the streak of setbacks for the new prime minister is going on. But Johnson's failure is the success of the pound. US employment data from ADP surprised us. + 195 000 with a forecast +148 000. And the data surprised us because recently the US economy has been showing more and more disturbing messages such as GDP data for the second quarter, and business activity indices, some even went below 50. So, despite yesterday's figures from ADP, we are rather sceptical about official statistics on the US labor market. In general, today's data is more important than ever. On the one hand, weak figures will confirm investors' concerns that the US economy is losing its confidence more rapidly. And on the other hand, it will become a signal fo the Fed that it is necessary to do something. That is, the fate of the rate cut may not be decided on September 18 at the FOMC meeting, but today. Therefore the dollar may receive a double hit, from which it will not be able to recover for a long time. That is why today we recommend selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. But we need weak NFPs for that. As for the trade war. The US and China negotiations were postponed. Now the date sounds like “early October.” That is, the confrontation will continue in September. So do not forget to buy gold.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Johnson loses and Pound Victory, Bank of Canada and GoldWe continue to watch the confrontation between the British Parliament and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson is losing another battle. On Tuesday, Boris Johnson not only lost his working majority, but he also could not initiate early elections. As we predicted, the pound strengthened. Even the weak data on business activity in the UK could not prevent its strengthening: the PMI index of business activity in the services sector came out below forecasts (50.6 with a forecast of 51.0). The dollar continued to suffer losses in the foreign exchange market. Even the euro strengthened against it. And this even though retail sales in the Eurozone came in the negative zone (-0.6%). However, despite yesterday's growth of the EURUSD, we are rather sceptical about buying euros. Gold purchases look much more attractive and prospective under the current conditions. Another Fed rate cut in a couple of weeks (100% of traders believe in) could give an upward impulse to gold for its growth in the region of 1600. Recall that one of the key arguments against buying gold is its inability to generate guaranteed profit. But the Fed's rate-cutting cycles could lead to the dollar losing its ability to generate profit and becoming not interesting to investors. The Bank of Canada announced that it left the policy rate steady. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened by a hundred points against the US dollar. Central Bank is not planning to cut rates in Canada saying that there are no reasons for that yat. Today, as for macroeconomic statistics, it is interesting primarily for US employment data from ADP. Weak data could trigger dollar sales - traders will not wait for official statistics on Friday and will rush to discount under weak NFPs in advance. Bears Continue To Drive The Dollar Lower so we recommend selling it since we expect a stronger wave of sales due to statistics on the US labour market. Besides, today we will buy gold and the Japanese yen. Sales of the Russian ruble and oil are also what we are interested in.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Parliament vs. Johnson, China vs. USA, AUDJPY GBP updated its lowest level since 2016 been in a pair with USD, but after soared at 100+ points for half an hour. The reasons for these movements we announced yesterday - the opposition of the British Parliament and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. We briefly outline the events of yesterday. A group of deputies is planning to initiate a bill where Boris Johnson will have to ask for another Brexit suspension if he can not conclude a new deal with Europe. Expectedly, Johnson he took it hard, saying that he would rather hold an early election than allow maltreat him. So far, the alignment of forces in the Parliament was not in Johnson's favor (about 20 people from his party went against Johnson), which is good for the pound. Note that although there is no certainty yet. If events continue to develop similarly, its further decline, for example with the dollar, to the area of 1.10 paired can be put aside for now. There are no changes in the trade war development. China’s ceasefire proposal (delay the introduction of tariffs) was rejected by the United States. At the same time, there is no concrete start date for the negotiation process. So our recommendations on the sale of safe haven assets remain relevant. Moreover, global production is slowing down. The PMI indices around the world are showing that. The eurozone as a whole, Germany in particular and the UK - everywhere indices went below 50, which indicates a decrease in business activity in the manufacturing sector. Well, the news on business activity in the manufacturing sector in the USA disappointed the markets. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (ISM Manufacturing) fell below 50 the same as in 2016. The consequences of the trade war are becoming more and more obvious. Hurricane Dorian is weakening. So the United States may well get off with slap on the wrist. Although, according to UBS Group estimates, even such a good end will cost about $ 25 billion - the result of the massive flights cancellation and other consequences of the hurricane. And finally, we note that the Reserve Bank of Australia left the rate unchanged yesterday. The fact of not cutting rates can be considered as a positive for the Australian dollar, which triggered its growth yesterday. However, in the light of the ongoing trade war, we would not have rushed to buy it in a hurry. However if China and the United States close on the agreement in September, then it is the Australian dollar that could be stronger than others. At the same time, we agree with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which recommends buying the Australian dollar not paired with the US dollar, but paired with the yen. Their logic is generally understandable - the end of the trade war, on the one hand, will provoke demand for commodity currencies, which include the Australian dollar, and on the other hand will lead to a sharp drop in demand for safe-haven assets, which include the Japanese yen. That is, the AUDJPY pair will receive a double reason for growth. So we recommend our readers to follow the development of events and keep in mind this deal (purchase AUDJPY) - potentially we are talking about 600-800 points of profit.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Getting ready for a volatile day: pound and dollar have the bullLabor Day in the US and Canada led to a relatively calm day on the financial market. But today everything can change radically. On the one hand, Hurricane Dorian threatens to become the most powerful in history. This means that the potential damage could also become the most significant. Yesterday we promised to show the way how to make money on this kind of natural force majeure. Here are a couple of facts. Irma was the first Category 5 hurricane (like Dorian) provoked a sharp decrease in the number of new jobs created out of a farm sector in the United States (NFP indicator) in September 2017. With an average 200K number, its September figures were (the peak activity of Irma in the month of August) -33K (!). In 2018, hurricanes were less destructive, but the September NFPs came out below forecasts 30% (!)and much lower than the average. Thus, if the hurricane turns out to be quite destructive, we can expect weak figures for the US labor market for September-October. Accordingly, it will be possible to prepare in advance for the failed data and make money on it. But the consequences of Dorian are not clear yet and will manifest after some time, but in the UK everything can be much more dynamic. Today, the UK Parliament is returning from recess with the understanding that they have less than 10 days to stop Johnson, because on September 12 his activities will be suspended until mid-October (the UK will leave the EU on October 31). That is, today all sorts of sensational news are possible to happen. There are a lot of development options of events, starting from the law prohibiting exit without a deal, ending with the resignation of the Government or early elections.Thus, the dynamics of the pound so far seems completely unpredictable - it will be entirely determined by the results of the parliamentarians activities. Let's try to give an approximate plan for working with the pound, depending on certain results. We sell the pound if the Parliament can accept nothing, as this is likely to mean a "hard" Brexit. We buy the pound if a law is passed to ban the exit without a deal or if a vote of no confidence is put forward to the Government. We regard early elections as a neutral option with positive for the pound since it will at least delay the “hard” Brexit. Also, today it is worth paying attention to the ISM index of business activity in the USA, Michel Lagarde speech, as well as the index of business activity in the UK. Speaking of our other trading preferences for today, we note that we will continue to sell the euro, buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble.
by Trade24Fx
Hurricane Dorian, Trump's new tariffs & Brexit Queen approves PM`s plan. Parliament is to be suspended for five weeks ahead of 31 October, the day the UK is due to leave the EU that was perhaps, the main event. This event is unusual: the prime minister, who was not chosen, and the Queen, who was not chosen as well, blocked the work of epy supreme body, which directly selected by people and represents their interests. So we closely monitor event development in Britain. This week we will see the continuation of an exciting series from the UK. On Tuesday, parliament will return from the summer break and will work for only a week before suspending its work, according to the Queen’s decree. A hurricane of events that is what we all are waiting for. Events are becoming less predictable and ever larger in terms of consequences. One of the main victims, well, main beneficiaries, of course, will be the British pound. We will refrain from direct pound trading orders. However, we continue to believe in the triumph of common sense and a valuable exit, which will provoke the growth of the pound by hundreds or even thousands points. But taking into account how events are developing, it’s worth preparing for almost everything, including the classic divorce with “beating dishes”, the division of property and the courts. As for the other important events, another uncertainty in the trade war: the parties either want negotiations or not. But at the same time, the facts show that the war is going on and even intensifying. From now on, the United States introduces new tariffs on goods from China. Also, Extremely powerful, life-threatening Hurricane Dorian is gaining momentum and could potentially cause major damage in Florida. Tomorrow we will write in more detail how to make money on this natural phenomenon. In general, given how uncertain and worried the world is, this week we will continue to buy safe-haven assets. The week may well be difficult for the Australian and Canadian dollars: on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision on the interest rate, and the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on Wednesday. Well, the publication of statistics on the US labor market will conclude more than an eventful week. Considering that before the FOMC decision is announced, it remains just a couple of weeks, the data on the NFP may well completely change everything. But we will talk about this in more detail during the week. As for our trading preferences for this week, we note that we tend to sell the euro, avoiding trading the pound (until the current situation with the Parliament’s blocking becomes clear), buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble. As for our trading preferences for this week, we note that we tend to sell the euro, avoiding trading the pound (until the current situation with the Parliament’s blocking becomes clear), buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Fite for Brexit: getting ready for hot SeptemberBe concern working with the pound. Boris Johnson's decision to shut down parliament for five weeks in order ... controversial plan to suspend the UK's parliament for five weeks. The Queen has approved an order to prorogue the UK Parliament. Boris Johnson seriously set his sights on leaving without a deal. Of course, there is a chance that this is just his attempt to strengthen his position in negotiations with the EU, well knowing Johnson’s temperament, we no longer exclude the most radical scenarios. The first week of September may be decisive for Brexit: time the opposition has to pass a law that does not allow an exit without a deal. Among other options - a vote of no confidence in the government, the dissolution of the Parliament and early elections. So, it will not be boring, pound volatility in September are guaranteed. For intraday trading, this is an opportunity to make money trading with pound pairs. So we will continue to monitor the development of events and will keep our readers informed of what is happening. Yesterday's US GDP data came out in line with forecasts: + 2.0% y / y. This means that the data has been revised downward. Statistics on the US labor market will be published, in particular, data on the NFP will be published next weak, a serious driver for a powerful dollar movement is not expected. Extremely weak figures were published on consumer inflation in Germany. In general, the concerns about one of the best Eurozone economy raises. Based on this, yesterday’s comments by the future head of the ECB, Michel Lagarde, that the ECB has tools to deal with the recession and should be prepared to use them if it is necessary. Against this background, we will continue to recommend avoiding buying euros against anything. But sales of it still seems to be a good trading idea. As for the trade war. The markets did not understand whether Trump was called from China or not. New tariffs for goods from China come into force on Monday. And this means that the trade war is not over. However, in September, the Chinese delegation should arrive in Washington so the chance to stop still exists. We will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday basis. Moreover, safe-haven assets today are something that worth to buy.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
1
Johnson's insidious plan, US GDP and dollar’s reactionBoris Johnson asks Queen to suspend parliament. The decision will cut dramatically the time MPs will have to take action to prevent no-deal Brexit. he is going to ask the Queen to suspend parliament for five weeks from mid-September. It seems like the Queen is ready to be in. And this means that the opposition will have time until September 12 to prevent the "no-deal" Brexit. The value of the pound has fallen by 1% following news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to suspend parliament The signal is more than alarming. Chances of the "no-deal" Brexit have increased dramatically. And this means that you need to be careful. Now we consider such pound descents of 150 points as an opportunity for cheaper purchases. But with stops. Once again, we note that events are developing against the pound, for now. Data on US GDP for the second quarter will be the main event. Experts expect a slight downward revision. The GDP growth rate is expected to remain at 2 %. Our expectations are more pessimistic. The fact is that the global economy as a whole and individual countries are increasingly showing signs of a slowdown. Very indicative is the data on German GDP, which, recall, showed a decrease in the second quarter. And most importantly, the decrease was due to the slow negative dynamics of exports. That is the direct evidence of the destructiveness of a trade war. There are reasons to expect further deterioration of the situation. Thus, we will not be surprised if the data is reviewed for the worse, but not by 0.1%, but more for example 1.5%. That will shock markets and the dollar will inevitably suffer. Moreover, the dollar will be under double pressure: the reaction to weak economic data will be multiplied by the growth of confidence in the Fed rate cut in September. So today we will sell the dollar across almost the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
Arrangements, collapse in Germany and data from the USAThe China-United States Trade War is an ongoing economic conflict between the world's two largest economies. Two countries cannot even agree if they are talking. According to Trump, he got a call from Chinese officials, however, China did not confirm that yet. Well, quite possible that there was no call. this means that we are in a situation where the parties are in the active phase of the confrontation. In the light, we will continue to look for points to buy for safe-haven assets (the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market and gold in the commodity market). Yesterday extremely weak data on the business climate in the largest economy of the Eurozone came out, today German GDP in the second quarter fell by 0.1%. Another quarter with a minus mark and the recession will be announced officially. Recall recession is a period of general economic decline, defined usually as a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer. An extremely alarming signal was the decline in German GDP mainly due to a sharp drop in the country's exports (it took 0.5% of GDP growth, actually leading it into the negative zone). This is an example of how the trade war could hurt. This news confirmed our recommendation to avoid buying euros. Instead, we suggest selling the euro against the Japanese yen and the British pound. This trading idea this week works just great. As for the dollar, not everything is that simple. Yesterday's data on orders for durable goods, consumer confidence and business activity in the US came out better than expected, which suggests that the US economy is getting better. But, our position on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. First of all, against the pound and the Japanese yen. Also, on Thursday, revised data on US GDP for the second quarter will be published. Weak data may trigger a short dollar.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Balance, G7 and Jackson Hole outcome, problems of GermanyTrump: China is ready to go back to the negotiating table. China, for its part, reiterated its desire to resolve trade problems through negotiations. safe-haven assets against this background have slightly adjusted and provided excellent opportunities. Despite the optimistic comments from Trump’s side as well as Chinese, everything might change. We have recently observed something similar and buying safe-haven assets tactics on the descents over the past few weeks was the right decision. So our recommendation is to buy gold and the Japanese yen. The only thing, given the increased volatility, do not forget to set stops - it is better to re-enter. The G7 meeting results can be called insignificant. We did not hear any revolutionary statements. So we believe that this event is already “played out” and taken into account. As for the Jackson Hole symposium outcome, there was a lot of concern, but representatives of the Central Banks have stated that crisis and cyclical issues need to be solved not only by monetary methods but also by fiscal ones. Returning to Powell’s speech on Friday, he did not say anything fundamentally new and did not clarify the current state of affairs. Nevertheless, our position on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. As for the euro. Data on the business climate in the largest economy of the Eurozone (Germany) again frankly disappointed. The IFO business climate index in August came out worse than expected 94.3 with a forecast of 95.1. This is the minimum value for the last 7 years. Therefore, markets expectations as for the monetary policy easing only intensified. So it’s better to wait a while with euro purchases. But its sales against the pound or the Japanese yen look like good trading ideas.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Dollar fails Powell’s test, China and Trump keep tensionsFor the whole last week we were waiting for a symposium in Jackson Hole to be held (The Economic Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world. ). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday was the main event. The markets were waiting for the “official” confirmation of monetary easing by the Fed, the ECB and other central banks. Attention focused on a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell for news on whether it will cut interest rates for a second time this year to boost the world's largest economy. But at the same time, he did not specify a time limit. China intends to raise tariffs on US imported goods total $ 75 billion the decision was made in response to the USA. Besides, the import tax on American cars and auto parts will be increased. Trump, of course, reacted extremely nervously to such actions by China, promising to take retaliatory measures. China has a deserved reputation for intellectual property theft. On Friday, Trump estimated China robs the US of “hundreds of billions” a year in ideas. So there is a reason to believe that a very hot and hectic week awaits us. In this light, buying safe-haven assets seems like a good trading idea. But once again we note that the choice of the entry point is extremely important. The upcoming week promises to be calm. Attention should be paid only on the US GDP. Otherwise, the attention will be focused on the confrontation between the USA and China, as well as the Fed. Our trading preferences this week: selling the dollar, finding points for buying gold and the Japanese yen, buying the British pound and selling the Russian ruble. Also, oil sales seem appropriate.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Euro suffers, pound is growing, & dollar waits for PowellPowell speaks in Jackson Hole that is what everybody is waiting for. Fed minutes from the meeting also showed the lack of unity among the Fed members. That might lead to the fact that the rate can be either lowered in September or left unchanged. That is complete uncertainty. That is why Powell's comments are that important. Markets still believe in the rates cut, and afraid to sell the dollar without any existing facts. So Powell’s “pigeon” comments are capable of setting off dollar selling in the foreign exchange market. Therefore we recommend the short dollar. However - if Powell does not give any clear comments, markets may perceive this as the Fed’s unwillingness to cut the rates in September, which could lead to a wave of dollar purchase Statistics on business activity in the Eurozone and the United States came out. As for the data from Europe on the one hand, the Eurozone Composite PMI was better than expected above 50, as was the PMI in the services sector. On the other hand, data from Germany showed a sharp deterioration in the situation, and at the highest pace over the past 6 years: respondents are expecting production to decline in the foreseeable future. The United States also upset. PMI indices came out much worse than expected, and the manufacturing index generally came out below 50, which indicates a reduction in business activity in the United States. The publication of the last ECB meeting minutes showed that Central Bank officials at their meeting on July 25 discussed the benefits of combining two measures to lower interest rates and bond purchases. Recall that the ECB left its policy unchanged last month, but made it clear that it was preparing to reduce its already negative rate and resume buying bonds in September. So, the euro does not look like the best thing to buy. We recall our recommendation to sell the euro against the pound. Moreover, Johnson is stepping up towards agreeing with the EU. Even though Europe in every possible way welcomes his efforts: in particular, Merkel believes that a new deal with Great Britain is possible before the end of October. In general, the Big Seven Conference may be a kind of breakthrough in the stalemate with Brexit. We have strengthened our desire to buy the pound, especially at extremely attractive current prices.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Johnson takes a step forward, Strong dollar and gold - Why ?The growing strength of the United States dollar has already fed up with a lot of things, Trump and American exporters to traders and analysts who have bet and continue to bet on its decline. Quite a long time ago, we have turned to dollars bears and also not enthusiastic about its unwillingness to decline. So it is time to find out the reasons for its strength. According to the dollar’s reaction to the Fed’s rate cut at the last FOMC meeting, it’s not about US interest rates. They are not that high to provoke an influx of speculative capital. “It’s natural for the dollar to be strong,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief currency strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Trump is waging a trade war against economies that earn a surplus from the U.S. and making the strong American economy even stronger.” On the one hand, investors are scared so they “hide” in US government bonds, which stimulates the dollar demand and strengthens it. On the other hand, Trump's protectionist actions help the US economy, to the detriment of partner countries, which again has a positive effect on the dollar value ( in response to US trade aggression, other countries devalue their currencies which artificially strengthens the dollar). According to the Bigmack Index, the dollar is one of the most overvalued currencies in the world. So we continue to recommend selling the dollar, especially ahead of Powell's Friday speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. In this light, the legendary investor and Mobius Capital Partners LLP founder. Mark Mobius encouraged all investors to buy gold with any marks. He believes the reduction of interest rates by the Central Banks, making gold an increasingly attractive investment target. It becomes a reliable basis for long-term gold growth. As for our position for gold, it is still unchanged: intraday oscillator trading without obvious preferences, that is, we buy in the oversold area and sell in the overbought one (as a reference, classic RSI oscillators can be used or more advanced versions of oscillators developed our experts for a deeper analysis of price dynamics). And finally, we note the first hints of possible progress in the agreements between the EU and the UK. This is the first public attempt by Boris Johnson to engage the EU in the negotiation process to develop a new version of the agreement on the withdrawal. And although this is only the first uncertain step towards. So we only strengthened our recommendation to buy the pound from current prices.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Waiting for Jackson Hole, riot in Britain and ruble problemsWe have already noted that this week promises to be calm but The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual symposium, traditionally gathering representatives of all the leading Central banks in the world, might give enough reasons for bursts of volatility. The most vulnerable are the euro and the dollar. Weak inflation in the Eurozone (yesterday's report showed that consumer inflation in the Eurozone fell by 0.5%), So the euro is definitely in danger. As for the dollar, Powell's performance is scheduled for Friday expecting from him a hint to the next Fed rate cut in September. It will be a hit to the dollar. We consider the current dollar growth an excellent opportunity for its sales. Meanwhile, in Britain, a statement by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn that he promises to take any action just to prevent an exit without a deal is gaining momentum. As a result, the issue of early parliamentary elections is being increasingly discussed in the media. And although in any other situation we would say that this is a negative sign for the pound, in this particular case, early elections are more likely positive, since they reduce the likelihood of a “no-deal” Brexit, therefore this is the reason for the pound to grow. So the descent of the pound paired with the dollar of 1.21 is a good opportunity for the pair to buy: both on the intraday basis and medium-term positions. Given that there is a chance that the pound value might growth this week, and the euro, on the contrary, a decline, it makes sense to pay attention to the sales of the EURGBP. This can be done simply from current prices. Another promising deal continues to be sales of the Russian ruble. And although it has already lost quite a lot of its value, the potential for its decline is far from being exhausted. Argentina scared investors around the world and showed how it could be dangerous to invest in risky assets. So the already “toxic” ruble has become even less desirable. In this regard, recall our recommendation to buy USDRUB. We advised buying it when the pair fluctuated around 63, but even now the pair’s purchases do not look hopeless. Total, today we will sell the dollar primarily against the pound and the Japanese yen. Also, we will sell EURGBP, as well as the Russian ruble. Gold continues to be an extremely interesting asset for short-term speculative trading. In the current uncertainty, we choose the tactics of oscillatory trading without obvious preferences, that is, we buy in the oversold zone and sell in the overbought zone (as a guideline, it is quite possible to use classic RSI oscillators or more advanced versions of oscillators developed by our experts for a deeper analysis of the price dynamics).
Short
by Trade24Fx
The crisis in Argentina and Corbyn attacks JohnsonThe crisis in Argentina. Argentina’s stock market lost more than 30% on Monday, and the Argentine peso also fell significantly. The ghost of default in Argentina scared investors around the world. Given that it is all about the 25th largest economy in the world, their fears are more than understandable - this could well be a signal for a full-fledged global crisis, the prerequisites for have been formed for a long time ago. In this light, the constant attempts of gold to “gain” a foothold above 1525 are understandable. But on the other hand, our recommendation to sell on growth paid off all week, giving good earnings almost every day. So this week we will continue to adhere to a similar tactic. As for the Pound. Even though its weekly growth was slightly more than 100 points, it is important, that in dollar pair, it was able to gain a foothold above 1.21. The reasons for growth were good statistics on retail sales and the labor market and Brexit. So, last week, pound sellers were flustrated by aggressive rhetoric from the British opposition. Jeremy Corbyn, British politician serving as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition, called for a vote of no confidence and declare a caretaker government that ensures that the country will not leave the EU without a deal and will hold early UK elections. We emphasize that it is all about the rumours, so this week we will continue to look for points for pound purchases. As for the dollar. U.S. retail sales came out pretty good, however, we still continue to recommend its purchasing. Market expectations regarding the September FOMC meeting unchanged - 100% of traders believe that the rate will be lowered by at least 0.25%. This alone is enough to maintain our confidence in a dollar decline. As for the upcoming week, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it promises to be relatively calm. The main event will be a symposium in Jackson Hole - guaranteed a lot of comments from representatives of leading central banks, which will certainly lead to spikes in volatility in the foreign exchange market. So you should be prepared for this and adjust the parameters of open positions for this factor.
Long
by Trade24Fx
The resurrection of the pound & revolution in the bond marketUK monthly retail sales were expected to decrease by 0.2% however, but fortunately, we observe the increase by 0.2%. The pound was trying to gain a foothold above 1.21. Although the attempt failed at the end of the day, we continue to recommend buying the pound both mid-term positions and on the intraday basis. Pound back above $1.21 but not for the log time. US retail sales grew unexpectedly Nevertheless, our recommendation is to sell on the intraday basis as well as medium-term positions - remains unchanged. The situation with the dollar has not changed much - it is too expensive given that the Fed started cutting interest rates and the threat of foreign exchange intervention by the United States. Financial markets, meanwhile, continue to evolve literally before our eyes. Who would have thought a few years ago that investors would be willing to pay extra for the right to lend money? More than $ 16 trillion has been invested by investors in bonds with a negative yield. And the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds fell below 2%, which is a historic low. We live in interesting times. Argentina’s sovereign century bonds tumbled by the most since they were sold in June 2017. Currently, the yield on Argentina's international bonds is close to 100% (!), which made them the cheapest in the world. The yield on dollar bonds of the Argentinean government rose to 27%. Funds that invested in Argentine bonds are suffering huge losses. Considering that Argentina is not an economic dwarf, everything might end badly for the global economy. Thanks to China, yesterday was an opportunity to make good money on our recommendation to sell gold. The asset has grown (1525) on the news that China is threatening the US with countermeasures. It seems like China has felt the strength and is ready to confront the United States. But it is still too early to panic. We still consider such behaviour as preparations for negotiations between the United States and China. The parties are simply trying to gain an advantage in the negotiating position. Recall, in our opinion, gold value is too high. But the situation can change at any time., We continue to monitor the development of events and will continue to keep our readers updated on what is happening and how to make money on it.
Long
by Trade24Fx