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News background & trading ideas for 22/02/2019 Yesterday has been an intense day with a variety of macroeconomic statistics. Europe has traditionally been a disappointment. For example, the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany decreased to 47.6 (export orders fell to the maximum value over the past six years). However, it wasn’t all hopelessly bad: the Eurozone composite PMI index in February came out even better than the forecasts (51.4, with the forecast 51.1). So all is not lost, and the euro’s purchases is not a lost cause. As for the dollar, the data for the United States came out relatively mixed. On the one hand, the PMI Composite Index was much better than the previous value of 55.8 against January 54.4. On the other hand, home sales in the secondary market suddenly dropped by 1.2% (experts expected growth of 0.2%). Durable goods orders were also worse than forecasts, but in the positive zone, which cannot be said about the Leading Indicators Index, which turned out in the minus zone. So there are no reasons for aggressive purchases of the dollar, which means that we stay on our side of the fence and recommend looking for points for intraday sales of the dollar. But the interesting thing happened yesterday, not with the US dollar, or even with the British pound, but with the Australian dollar. The fact is that yesterday Reuters reported that the port of Dalian in China banned the import of coal from Australia for an unspecified period. This led to sales of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Even the good data on the labor market in Australia didn’t help the Aussie. Another portion of positive news came from the negotiations between the USA and China. According to the same Reuters, China and the USA started to harmonize particular aspects of reduction of trade balance surplus of China in relation to the US. Well, things are going to the fact that on the fist of March there will be at least a draft of the deal on the table if not a ready treaty. Positive signals also came from the Brexit battlegrounds. In particular, the Chancellor of Her Majesty's Treasury, Phillip Hammond, suggested that in the coming days may take place a vote on a new version in Parliament, and this is good news for the pound. So we remind that there is a place for its growth, and it's not too late to buy. Friday promises to be an intensive and tough day as well. Again a lot of macroeconomic statistics from around the world: Germany's GDP, inflation in the Eurozone, retail sales in Canada, multiplied by the speeches of the heads of the ECB and the Bank of Australia, as well as a number of Fed representatives. All this ensure that it will be an exciting day. Oil has pulled up since buyers were surely confused by record data on export and oil production in the USA, as well as stumped by the growth of oil reserves in the United States for the fifth week in a row. The USA is now exporting more oil than almost any OPEC member (except for Saudi Arabia and Iraq). However, as long as the asset is above 53.50 (WTI), we continue looking for points for intraday purchases. Recall that our mid-term and long-term position is unchanged - we sell oil in a long time horizon. The Russian ruble continued to gain. We consider that it is an exceptional opportunity to build short positions on it from more convenient points.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 21/02/2019Yesterday was as well rich at the events. News about the pressure of the United States on China in order to force the Celestial Empire to use the devaluation of the yuan as a tool for obtaining an advantage for its exporters was the most interesting for the foreign exchange market. As a result, the yuan has been strengthened. But everybody continues waiting for a big decision about the end of the trade wars. With equal interest, markets observe the Brexit. Yesterday was held a widely announced meeting May and Juncker. Parties stated the follow-up that the negotiations were constructive and they need to meet again soon. That’s mean that it came to nothing. Meanwhile, domestic political crises are amplified in the UK: deputies are forming new groups, ministers are trying to negotiate behind May’s back about the postponement of Brexit terms. Anyway, the intrigue is ongoing, when the time is running out. It is expected that the next vote on a deal in the parliament will take place already on the twenty-seventh of February. Our position remains unchanged - looking for points for the pound’s purchases , since we believe in the triumph of common sense and that Britain will not leave the EU without a deal. Another significant event of yesterday was a publication of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting. These minutes interested the markets especially strong since precisely in January the Fed made a strong maneuver in changing the vector of monetary policy from "tighten" to "neutral." However, there was nothing fundamentally new. Most FOMC members currently do not have clarity of what to do with the rates. Besides, there was a fixed necessity to announce plans of draw down the normalization of balance by the Fed. The dollar, in general, was cool about the text of the protocol, since its key points had already been included in the price. So our position for the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Oil has slightly slowed the growth yesterday, amid reports that half of OPEC+ participants are not meeting their obligations. According to Bloomberg, only 10 of the 21 parties to the treaty fully fulfilled their commitments. The maximum conformity with the OPEC+ conditions was demonstrated by the Cartel member countries (86%), and the minimum one - by the producers that are not included in it (25%). Thus, OPEC+ #2 is still behaving like OPEC+ #1. Firstly, then was very difficult either with the fulfillment of obligations, but over time, the countries reached 100% compliance with the norms after all. Let's see how it will be this time. For oil, this is quite a strong bearish signal, but until the asset is above $54 (WTI), we continue to recommend intraday purchases of oil. Gold still felt quite confident, so its purchases remain in the to-do list. But we continue to recommend to be extremely careful. Gold is very high so far but can collapse very sharply and unexpectedly. As for today, well, something extraordinary is not envisaged. Although the day can hardly be called calm one because of an abundance of macroeconomic statistics, starting with the Australian labor market and economic activity of Japan, ending with inflation and business activity of Germany and the Eurozone, as well as durable goods orders and business activity in the USA.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 20/02/2019Unlike Monday, yesterday was much more exciting and intense. Let’s start with the labor market statistics of the UK, which came out considerably well. Take a look at least at the figures on employment: +167,000 with the forecast of +151,000. Other indicators (unemployment, average wages) were released within the estimates. This created a foundation for the growth of the pound, which used in full not only this news but also the information that on Wednesday, May and Juncker will hold a meeting, which may finish with a new draft of the deal. Even the news that the Japanese car manufacturer Honda for the first time in 71 years of its existence will close the plant, which is located in the UK and produces every tenth car in the country, did not prevent the growth of the pound. This loss of 3,500 workplaces viewed not only as a loss but another alarm of what will happen to the UK industry if it leaves without a deal. Anyway, yesterday the pound made it possible for our readers to make a good profit, and we just add, that 1.31 it is far away from the limit of the GBPUSD pair growth, so we continue to recommend purchases of the pound in the foreign exchange market , much less, today a new wave of optimism may cover the pound pairs as a result of the May and Juncker meeting. We continue to advise purchases of USDJPY. Especially in the light of the statements made by the head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda that it will take a further reduction in monetary policy. Recall, while USDJPY above 110 its purchases are a priority. The euro paired with the dollar has also gained ground yesterday But it goes rather to the common dollar weakness than to the economic data (quite the opposite, because the data from the ZEW institute came out very weak both in Germany and in the Eurozone in general). Predictably Trump’s state of emergency underwent massive obstruction in the United States, and lawsuits started tumbling out one by one. All this, of course, can’t make the dollar buyers happier. Well, news of a possible breakthrough in Brexit also plays into the euro hands. All in all, purchases of EURUSD today does not seem to us as a bad idea. The growth of gold was not surprising to us since we have been recommending its purchase for a while. Just want to offer our congratulations for those of our readers who follow our recommendations with a good income yesterday. Recall, in our view, the goal of the current upward movement - test 1350-1360. The goal is nearing completion, but another 10-15 dollars from the market can be squeezed out. So it remains our aim to buying, but caution is advised. Gold climbed high and can collapse very sharply and unexpectedly. We must not be tricked by the growth of the Russian ruble. The arrest of the last and most devoted foreign investor in Russia for two months is a very clear signal of the Russian Federation to the rest of the world (we are talking about Michael Calvey, the leader of Baring Vostok). To demonstrate the level of what was happening and what is going on now, let us give you a few numbers. According to the Russian central bank, foreign direct investment in Russia decreased from $27.1 billion in 2017 to $1.9 billion last year (while in 2013 its were $79 billion). So we continue selling the ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 19/02/2019The day-off in the USA and Canada yesterday drove to a pretty boring American session, well, generally, Monday has not been a remarkable day in terms of price dynamics. Although we can’t say that there were no interesting events at all, so let’s talk about the most exciting ones and the last news as well. The meeting between representatives of the US and China became a key event of the past weekend, which resulted in the another noted by parties progress and willingness to continue the dialog up to the finish. Trump named the negotiations as very productive and promised to postpone tariff increases on Chinese goods if necessary. Actually, precisely from this news went the main movements in the financial markets. First of all, we are talking about the growth of commodities as gold and oil, a decline of the Japanese yen, as well as the increase of commercial currencies (the Australian and Canadian dollar). As for today, it promises to be quite calm in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Attention should be paid unless to the labor market statistics in the UK, but the formation of any directional movements after its publication should not be expected, because of Brexit. Since yesterday did not bring anything thoroughly new to the financial markets, our trading preferences remain unchanged : sell the dollar on almost all fronts (the exception is Japanese yen - while the USDJPY pair is above 110 we are looking for points for intraday purchases). While gold is above 1294, we are looking for points for its intraday purchases as well. Last week, this tactic excellently worked out, and we see no reason to change it. We also sell the Russian ruble, which last week also made it possible to make good money. Basically, in the light of the progress in negotiations between the United States and China and the fact that oil (WTI brand) confidently went above $55, intraday purchases of “black gold” seem to us a good trading idea in line with current market sentiments. Moreover, according to rumors, one of the largest fields of Saudi Arabia suspended its work for an indefinite period (the field produces 1.2-1.5 million b/d, so the losses are more than significant not only for the country but for the world as a whole).
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 18/02/2019The past week has not resolved the main issues of concern to the markets. The negotiations process between the USA and China continues, and there is no finish line yet. Brexit continues to be on the same page yet despite that the time is running out. It seems the matter of funding the wall in the USA is getting worse: the shutdown was avoided, but Trump has declared the state of emergency after all. The goal of such actions - to unblock necessary to build funds (in Trump’s view it is about $6 billion). So it is likely it will be the feedback from the Democrats: the trials, protests, etc. Anyway, Trump is doing all his best to make the news background extremely eventful. The dollar is under big pressure amid such activity. Well, we continue this week to recommend the dollar’s purchases in the foreign exchange market. The week was also remembered by weak macroeconomic data from almost everywhere: the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and even the United States (the failed retail sales on Friday were supplemented by equally awful figures on industrial production). The exception was the statistics from China, which has shown a sharp increase in exports in the Celestial Empire. Among other developments of the past week, it is worth remembering enhancing of the new sanction’s processes against Russia. Buyers of the Russian ruble slightly relaxed after November, when the USA did not impose the hellish sanctions, moreover the change in leadership of Rosstat and the “sharp growth” of Russia's main macroeconomic indicators after that created the illusion that everything was good for the ruble and it strengthened well. We’ve been recommended using it and selling the Russian ruble. We can not fail to note another notably unpleasant news for the ruble: the arrest of the founder of Baring Vostok, Michael Calvi. One of the oldest and largest venture capital funds invested in Russia. Some experts identified this event as a fatal. So, basically, it is almost impossible to invent more effective sanctions. Regarding the current week, it promises to be relatively calm after a very rich previous one, at least for macroeconomic statistics. So obviously, we'll continue to monitor the ongoing events and keep our followers aware of the most significant ones. Today, due to the days-off in the USA and Canada, promises the appearance of a “thin market” in the afternoon, so you need to be very careful because instead of the expected calm we can get another flash crash. Our trading positions are mostly unchanged: we sell the dollar on almost all fronts (with the exception of the Japanese yen - as long as USDJPY is above 110 we are looking for points for intraday purchases). While gold is above 1294, we are looking for points for its intraday purchases as well. Last week, this tactic worked out excellent, and we see no reason to change it. We also sell the Russian ruble, which last week also made it possible to make good money.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 15/02/2019Before talking about the market’s sentiments at the end of the week, let’s analyze yesterday’s events. Let’s say that the main surprise for statistics data became external trade numbers of China. Chinese export has literally soared by 9.1% (analysts had expected a decline of 3.2%). What does it mean? That it is too soon to write the engine of the world economy off. What are the consequences of this? The demand for safe-haven assets may well fall down. Actually, the decline of the Japanese yen is a clear confirmation of this. In theory, the next one is gold. So, we will refrain from recommendations of USDJPY sales and even side up into its purchases. We can buy USDJPY from the masses 110 with profits of 111 and stops below 109.70. Nevertheless, gold is risky to sell so far. By “so far” we mean, as long as it is above 1294. Recall that for us this is the divide of the balance of power in gold. As long as the asset varies above this mark intraday, gold is quite possible to buy. But in case of the breakdown, we can safely side up into sales. So we buy gold in the area of 1295-1300 with profits above 1310 and stops below 1290. From other data, it is worth noting the GDP of the Eurozone, which came out exactly as part of the forecasts. However, the main data, of course, became retail sales in the United States. We have warned in yesterday's review that the data may unpleasantly surprise us. So as it actually happened. With the forecast of +0.1% m/m, the actual numbers was -1.2% m/m (!). It was logically that, amid such fiasco, the dollar underwent massive sales. Along with the United States, Canada also checked with weak data. Industrial sales in December fell by 1.3% m/m, while analysts have been expected growth of + 0.4% m/m. So the pressure on the Canadian dollar as a whole is explicable. However, we continue to recommend looking for points for sales of the USDCAD pair. Sell from the current, the stops above 1.3350, profits are 1,3200. Since the EURUSD transactions steadily generate profit, we continue to recommend purchases of the pair from 1.1260-1.1280. Stops below 1.1230. Profit in the area of 1.1420. The Russian ruble worked out our forecast in an exemplary manner. But that's no reason to close its sales, albeit in a good plus. By and large, it is just a beginning, which means that the plus may still grow, so we continue to sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 14/02/2019Yesterday was quite rich from macroeconomic statistics. Europe, as already usual, disappointed. Industrial production in December decreased by 0.9%, that is, it turned out to be more than 2 (!) times worse than forecasts (analysts expected a decrease of only 0.4%). In general, if we match it with the data of last year, the drop was the maximum since 2009 (!). So the data is very frustrating. Although the euro has not undergone massive sales in the foreign exchange market. That's what it means, have taught the markets to weak data. The UK has taught traders to mediocre statistics in recent years. Yesterday's inflation data for the first time in 2 years were below the target of the Bank of England (in annual terms, inflation was 1.8%). And in January a deflation of at all -0.8% m/m was recorded. If it is not the Brexit, we could speculate on the possible reaction of the Bank of England to such statistics. But it makes no sense since everything in the Kingdom now revolves around the exit of Britain from the EU and precisely the outcome of this process will determine both the state of the economy and the monetary policy in the future. Yesterday was a clear example. Another portion of rumors about the rescheduling of Brexit terms led to the short-term pound’s growth. But it is still rumors. Nevertheless, our position is unchanged - we continue keeping mid-term purchases of the pound and buy it from the attractive points within a day. And last but not least, the US inflation has already exceeded forecasts in the annual value, but there was no much flow of optimism among the dollar buyers. After all, for the Fed the general economic state is much more interesting, than the inflation component. Optimism was most likely affected by Trump's allegations about the postponement of the implementation of tariffs against China for 60 days, since the negotiations are dragging and have every chance of success, and it looks like the shutdown will have to be canceled. So, the dollar increase yesterday is utterly natural. Our position, meantime, is maintained - we believe that the dollar is relatively overvalued and it has to be sold. Today, in terms of statistics, will be quieter, but Eurozone GDP data should still be monitored. Well, the focus should be on the figures for retail sales in the United States. We would not be surprised if, instead of a positive zone, they turn out to be less than 0. The dollar is likely to be subject of sales in this case. But once again, we note that it is better to act upon, that is, to enter the transaction after the publication of data. Since there were no fundamental movements yesterday, the trading plan is unchanged. If the USDCAD pair decides to go up to 1.33, sell it from there. Stops are above 1.3350. Profits are 1,3200. Buy gold below 1310, adding about 1295. The minimum profits are set in 1320, and the stops are placed below 1290. As long as the asset is above 1294, we see no threat for long positions. EURUSD : purchases from 1.1260. Stops are below 1.1230. Profit in the area of 1.1420. Well, as already traditional, we recall about the feasibility of selling the Russian ruble , especially in the light of the intensification of talks about a new portion of sanctions from the US and the EU against Russia, which also promise to be the toughest ever. According to Reuters, new issues of OFZ, the banking and energy sector of the Russian Federation, as well as a number of individuals can get dragged into new sanctions.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
News background and trading ideas for 13/02/2019Yesterday the particulars of a tentative agreement between Democrats and Republicans were known. Parliamentarians agreed to allocate $1.375 billion for building a wall. It is now up to Trump and he has some difficulties with this because he needs $5.7 billion for this aim. So the dollar buyers have to stay focus anyway. Our position is unchanged so far - continue looking for points for dollar’s purchases. Optimistic signals from the fronts of negotiations process between the US and China continue to be received (it’s been a month since its coming, but there is no actual process yet). Brexit's spring continues getting tighter. But according to the incoming news, Britain is going to wait till the last. It means until the last week of March when the EU summit is to be held, where they will try to form a new version of the agreement. Consequently, the UK Parliament will vote on a new treaty almost on Brexit’s day. By and large, voting in such conditions will not be for an agreement itself, but for the exit "without a deal" or "with one." May's tactics are understandable, and generally, have great chances of being efficient. For us, there is nothing new in this news. We warned of such scenario (wait till the last minute) in September yet. So everything goes as planned. As we see, there are the same as last week or two weeks issues in the light. Consequently, the equilibrium in the financial markets has not changed much. So, there is no sense waiting for big and direct movements so far. It would seem reasonable to focus on intraday trading. As for today, the key events will be the publication of inflation data for the UK and the USA. And if in the first instance we do not assume any particular explosions of volatility (macroeconomic data is not currently in the focus of the pound), then data from the United States may well trigger a surge in trading activity in the foreign exchange market. The monetary policy of the Fed, or rather its vector, is the primary threat to the dollar in 2019. And since the stability of the national currency is the main task of any Central Bank of the World, markets can be quite nervous to statistics on consumer inflation in the United States. The trading plan for today, bearing in mind yesterday’s decline of the dollar, is generally unchanged in that we continue looking for points for the dollar’s sales intraday and mid-term. Our yesterday’s recommendation for sales of the USDCAD pair worked out pretty well, so if today the pair decide to go up to 1.33 again, we’ll sell it again. Stops are above 1.3350. Profits - 1,3200. Gold also made it possible to “bite” a small piece from the market. Therefore, our intraday recommendation is unchanged : buying below 1310, adding about 1295. Set minimum profits around 1320 and place stops below 1290. As long as the asset is above 1294, we see no threat for long positions. Since EURUSD could not take hold below 1.1300, we will probably buy this pair with small stops as well. Purchases are about 1,1300. Stops are below 1.1250. Profit is in the area of 1.1420.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 12/02/2019Yesterday can be called a crash day for the pound if one looks at macroeconomic statistics. Everything was literally pretty bad. Industrial production fell (-0.5% m/m - with a forecast of +0.1% m/m), construction decreased (-2.8% m/m with a forecast of +0.1% m/m), the trade balance worsened (-3.229 billion pounds with a forecast -3.000 billion pounds), as well as GDP in December (-0.4% m/m with a forecast of 0% m/m). Eventually, the GDP for the 4th quarter despite turned out to be positive, but in a very slight way, was worse than forecast (+0.2% q/q +1.3% y/y, while the forecast was +0.3% q/q +1.4% y/y). Considering that these were quite basic macroeconomic indicators, under normal conditions, with such a pronounced negative, the pound had to fly down 150-200 points within an hour or two. But in fact, the losses did not exceed 30-40, which, taking into account the general strengthening of the dollar, can be attributed to an error at all. We found such response of the pound as another confirmation of our mid-term recommendation buying the pound while awaiting for the Brexit outcome. The pound has already got an immunity against almost any information excluding news from Brexit fields. And although there is no progress so far, it seems for us as an inevitable scenario. So, we continue to keep mid-term positions on the pound purchases and gradually adding from good points. The dollar’s increase occurred amid reports that the Democrats and Republicans have tentatively agreed and a threat of the shutdown significantly decreased. Despite such obvious fundamental positive, we are under no immediate pressure to turn over into dollar purchases for one simple reason - the Dollar Index has reached the upper limit of its mid-term range. There isn't much time left for the maximum marks of the last year, and it is somehow absolutely wrong to buy near the key resistance of 97.50. So, we continue to recommend dollar sales, but with short enough stops. Today we prefer to sell the dollar against the Canadian dollar. The entry point is the area of 1.3300. Stops above 1.3350. Profits 1,3200. Oil after the breakdown of 53.50 (WTI brand) again looks pretty sales attractive. The profiteers synchronously retooled and prefer sales now. The number of sellers among hedge funds grew by 28% in just a few days. In the short run, we choose not to go against the will of the market, and since the current sentiment coincides with our mid-term position, we, with a calm soul, recommend selling oil within the day. At the same time, given the extremely volatile market sentiment, above 53.70 sales should be covered. As for the goals, a minimum, this is the masses of 50, but in the foreseeable future, we can see 45 and even lower. Gold yesterday was under quite strong downward pressure. The reason is both the general strengthening of the dollar and the next news about the intensification of the negotiation process between the US and China. So far, we recommend using this decrease as an opportunity and reason for cheaper purchases. The trading plan is unchanged: we buy below 1310, we add around 1295. We put the minimum profits in the area of 1320, and we place the stops below 1290. While the asset is above 1294, we see no threat for long positions. Recall that when it comes to intraday positions, it is desirable to close it at the end of the day. The news that Moody’s has increased sovereign ratings of the Russian Federation inspired bulls to buy the Russian ruble. To our mind, it generally doesn’t influence the current state of things of the RF economy and its prospects. So again, the current growth of the Russian ruble it is an opportunity, not an issue, a possibility for more expensive sales.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 11/02/2019Last week was not marked with anything fundamentally new. The most sensational event for the foreign exchange market became a change of the vector of monetary policy in Australia from the potential tightening to the neutral. The Bank of England has remained parameters of the monetary policy unchanged, however, it substantially lowered the forecasts of the economic growth in Great Britain. But all of that has taken place outside the framework of the campaign for soft Brexit, so there's no cause for alarm. Meanwhile, Theresa May hid all over Europe in search of a compromise. She began her journey with Northern Ireland (recall, the question of the border of Northern Ireland is one of the main stumbling blocks), and then moved to Brussels. It's too early to talk about a breakthrough. So far, the parties have agreed to negotiate further. Actually, the highlight of the last week in terms of price dynamics can be called a sharp increase in cryptocurrency on Friday: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Ripple went up by 5-25%. According to The Independent, the fact that the trading volume of Bitcoin in Venezuela this week reached record levels could contribute to that. Considering that most of the country's financial operations are somehow hampered by the US imposed sanctions, the Venezuelan government might well have tried to use cryptocurrencies for certain transactions. This week will be very interesting for the UK for another round of debates in the Parliament. So increased volatility in pound’s pairs is quite likely, but do not take it at face value. Not less exciting might be in the dollar’s pairs. February 15 in the country can begin a new shutdown. At least so far everything is going precisely to this scenario: Trump’s and Dems attitudes remain polar. The ongoing week will be rich on the macroeconomic statistics. On Monday data on the UK GDP will be published, as well as industrial production, trade balance and a number of other macroeconomic indicators. Data is supposed to be weak, so local sales of the pound are pretty possible, but we continue to recommend mid-term purchases of the pound. The motivation behind this is presented in our previous reviews. Besides, it’s worth paying attention to the inflation data from the USA on Wednesday, GDP of the Eurozone and retail sales in the US on Thursday, as well as retail sales in the UK and industrial production in the US on Friday. This week we start with the following trading preference: looking for points for the intraday dollar’s sales, buying gold, selling the Russian ruble. The dollar can be sold versus the euro (buying EURUSD at 1.1310, stops below 1.1250, profits at 1.1420) or against the yen (selling USDJPY about 110.00, with stops above 110.40 and profits at 108.90 ). As for gold purchases , the trading plan is the same as the one that gave us the opportunity to make good money last week: buy below 1310, add about 1295. Set minimum profits in the area of 1320, and place the stops below 1290. While the asset is above 1294, we see no threat for long positions. Recall that when it comes to intraday positions, it is desirable to close it at the end of the day. Turning to oil , technically, within the day, it needs to be sold (the guidance for us is 53.50 for the WTI brand — if the price is below the mark, we are looking for points for sales, if it is higher, we are looking for points for purchases). But a level of 53.50 last week was thoroughly blurred, so the situation with oil within the day generally unclear.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 08/02/2019The highlight event of yesterday became an announcement of the Bank of England meeting. The rate and other parameters of monetary policy were predictable upheld. The forecasts of the Central Bank about the UK economy shape were pressuring the pound, which has been dismal (particularly the Bank of England has curtailed the forecast for GDP growth for 2019 to 1.2% from 1.7%). Actually, we have warned that Brexit and its uncertainty will pressure on the BoE. Nevertheless, we continue to consider what is taking place as a part of a great game, where the Central Bank plays not the last role. The object of the game is soft Brexit. One of the conditions for its implementation is the creation of the illusion of complete losses in case of an exit without a deal. These kinds of predictions will make parliamentarians more compliant. Recall that May yesterday led negotiations in Brussels, which both parties recognized as "tough but constructive." So the caravan is going and we continue to recommend mid-term purchases of the pound. Another impressive event of this week was the lesson taught investors around the world by SoftBank founder, a billionaire Masayoshi Son. Quite often our clients are interested in how to determine the fair value of the asset. So Masayoshi Son gave an answer to this question and also showed how to turn $5 billion into $17 billion overnight. Analyzing the financial statements of the company, he drew the following expression: "25-4 = 9?". It stands for as follows: at SoftBank's asset value of 25 trillion yen and a debt of 4 trillion yen, the company's capitalization is only 9 trillion yen. Thus, Masayoshi Son showed that SoftBank is undervalued by the market by almost 14 trillion yen. And since the company's shares are so cheap, he announced plans to repurchase its. As a result, SoftBank's capitalization increased by 18% within one trading session. But back to the financial markets reality. The dollar continued to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. But we still recommend avoiding its purchases. The doomsday clock for Americans state employees is ticking. The new shutdown is around the corner (a week), while there is no progress yet. Today, in general, does not augur any surprises, but “Brexits”, shutdowns, the USA&China negotiations (the news has passed that the meeting of the heads of China and the United States, scheduled for March 1, may not take place) can make an informational shot any moment, so you need to be focus anyway. Besides, it’s worth taking attention on the Canadian dollar, on which the portion of significant statistics about labor market condition will be published. We tend to sales of USDCAD pair. Also today we will be looking for points for gold purchases intraday and mid-term. As for oil, after the asset again passed below 53.50, we are hitting pause in asset purchases. Buying points of EURUSD pair look very attractive, as well as sales of USDJPY are quite good. Gold is still in the area of optimal points for purchases. As long as the asset is above 1294, we see no threats for long positions. So buy from the current, add about 1295 and earn. Minimum profits are set around 1320, and stops are placed below 1290. And once again we draw on excellent points for the Russian ruble sales .
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 07/02/2019The highlight event of yesterday in foreign exchange market, which took most of traders and analytics by surprise (we’ve been caught as well, but in defense we note that the Australian dollar mainly is under our radar) became an announcement of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, that the Central Bank is moving to a neutral position in monetary policy (before that, the Central Bank announced a tightening of policy in the long run). The logical response of the Aussie to this news was its sharp decline. In general, there are high chances to its further decline, so we would recommend to beware of the Australian dollar purchases. Among other news of yesterday, it’s worth noting unexpectedly positive data for the dollar on the US trade balance, the deficit of which was $49.3 billion, with the forecast: $54.0 billion. As a result, the dollar slightly strengthened. But we are still taking things slow with its purchases. The reason is a possible escalation of the political situation in the USA. Today will be interesting firstly by the announcement of outcomes of the Bank of England meeting. Although we shouldn't wait for any revelations. The rate will remain unchanged while comments will be around Brexit and related to its concern. By the way about Brexit. Theresa May yesterday has visited a Northern Ireland in search of compromise offer on borderline, which is the main issue of Brexit process. After North Ireland, she is going to Brussels. So, we will get some news from the Brexit field already today. In this regard, the next discharge of the insider (or maybe just rumors) that the British ministers secretly discussed the plan for an 8-week delay of the UK exit from the European Union became quite symptomatic. That is, Brexit can be rescheduled for May 24th. It is likely that this kind of news can come from Brussels today. This is positive for the pound, so we continue looking for points for mid-term purchases. It is noteworthy that yesterday our EURJPY sales recommendations worked out quite well. Same cannot be said of oil purchases. The asset again tried to go below 53.50, thus increasing the downward pressure on the asset. Recall, we consider the level of 53.50 (WTI brand) as a kind of Rubicon for oil. As long as the asset is below this mark, we recommend intraday sales, and if this mark is exceeded, you can turn over into purchases. Gold is approaching the optimal points for purchases. As long as the asset is above 1294, we see no threats for long positions. So buy from the current, add around 1295 and make money. Minimum profits are set at 1320, and stops are placed below 1290. And once again call attention to amazing points for sales of the Russian ruble.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 06/02/2019As far as macroeconomic statistics, yesterday was almost like Monday: once again weak data from the Eurozone, and unconvincing statistics from the UK. Retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 1.6% (however, this was in line with forecasts), PMI in the service sector came out below forecasts, and the equivalent figure in France was at all below 50, that is, signaling a decrease in economic activity. In the UK, the Composite PMI, released although more than 50, it still turned out to be lower than expected: 50.3 with the forecast of 51.4. As a result, both the pound and euro were under pressure. But it didn’t bring up the massive sales: firstly, the news was off-the-rack, secondly, do not miss that fact that the dollar has its dissenting opinion. Before turning to the United States news, we’ll give one more reason to defend our position to buy the British pound. In the options market, the cost of protection against price volatility of the pound sterling fell to almost a three-month low (implied volatility decreased to 10.8% from the 15% mark recorded last November). That is, traders do not expect a sharp drop in the pound. But let’s back to the US news. Yesterday investors very carefully were working with the dollar, waiting for Trump’s speech in Congress. And they had a point: a declaration of the state of emergency was a possible scenario. Everything ended without that, but Trump’s rhetoric wasn’t peaceful in any way. Trump strongly blamed Dems and promised to build the wall whatever it takes for him. So, there is every indication that in 10 days we will get another shut-down. Accordingly, despite the current dollar’s success we continue looking for points for purchases of the greenback in the foreign exchange market. Today the reason for its decline could be data on the US trade balance. Recall, that precisely the trade gap is the Achilles heel of the United States economy. On the fronts of commodity markets without much changes. Recall our intraday recommendations this week: purchases of gold and oil. Although we note that oil again tries to go below 53.50. For us, this is a watershed line - below this mark we turn over into sales. The parameters of the trade plan for gold have not changed. You can buy from the current with adding in the area of 1295 and stops below 1290. At the same time, profits can be placed up to 1350. Sales of the USDJPY pair look pretty good. You can try it in the area of 110 with stops above 110.30 and profits below 109. Mid-term sales of the EURJPY pair look quite interesting either. You can sell around 125.70-80 with stops above 127.20 and profits below 124 or even lower if you have enough strength to keep longer.
Short
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 05/02/2019Monday, as expected, has been a quite calm fundamentally. However, there was some news, so let’s talk about it. The Eurozone has traditionally been marked by weak economic data. In particular, Sentix Investor Confidence Index in February was -3.7 with the forecast of -1.3 and the value for the previous period at the level of -1.5. The United Kingdom also distinguished itself. The business confidence index PMI in construction in January came close to recessive values (50.6, with a forecast of 52.2 and a December value of 52.8). In general, the United Kingdom, with its uncertainty, continues to harm primarily itself. From the latest news: Nissan stated they are not going to produce a new model of X-Trail on the British factory. The reason is uncertainty with Brexit and conditions of the UK exit from the EU. Tellingly, even guarantees and insurances from the Government of Great Britain didn’t help. And this was not an isolated incident, so there is much to consider. And that’s precisely what Theresa May does so far. PM has formed a work-group on preparing a new variant of the deal. Our position on the pound is unchanged so far: looking for points for purchases intraday and mid-term. Quite unexpectedly, for most experts, industrial orders in the United States dropped sharply (-0.6% m/m with a forecast of +0.3% m/m). Data on orders for durable goods also disappointed, as they were 2 times worse than forecasts (+0.7% m/m with the forecast of +1.5% m/m). All this is happening amid Trump's other threats to impose a state of emergency. The reason is that unblocking the funding of government bodies has a good chance of remaining temporary because a compromise with the Democrats has not been found. In this light, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales. Oil some slow down its growth on Monday. But yet the general fundamental background is propitious for assets quotes growth (at least in short-term perspective). OPEC cuts production, Venezuela gets deeper and deeper into an abyss of anarchy and chaos, and the US shelves seem to be experiencing growth difficulties. So we continue to recommend looking for points for oil purchases intraday. And simultaneously keeping mid-term short positions on the asset. Decline in quotes of gold on Monday we perceive as an opportunity to buy cheaper. As long as the asset is above 1295, we see no threats for long positions. You can buy from the current with the adding in the area of 1295 and stops below 1290. At the same time, profits can be placed up to 1350.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 04/02/2019Last week turned out to be not very prosperous for the dollar. The reason was the Fed attitude. The Central Bank has put the interest rate on hold and demonstrated quite a dovish sentiments in general. Even excellent NFP figures did not help the dollar (+304K with a prediction in +165K, and recall we were expected even worse numbers). The thing is, that statistics on the labor market includes not only the figures of the NFP but also the wages dynamics and unemployment rate. And its just let down. Unemployment turned out to be higher than forecast (4%, while the market expected figures to be 3.9%), and the average hourly wage showed an increase of only 0.1%, while the estimate was +0.3%. We believe that precisely the last figure did not give the dollar an opportunity to win back losses on Friday. For the Fed, salary growth is one of the primary inflation indicators. Accordingly, a sharp slowdown in inflationary processes is a sign for the Central Bank that the decision not to raise the rate was right, and the cause for not raising the rate in the future. So, despite spectacular NFP data, we continue to deem the dollar as vulnerable and recommend looking for points for its sales this week. Besides, the candidates for purchases this week are commodity assets of both gold and oil. Gold has not yet reached the goal of the current upward movement (we are waiting for growth to the area of 1350), and amid a weakening dollar and dovish Fed position, there are all chances for further asset increase. As for oil, after the asset managed to take hold above 53.50 (WTI brand), the path to further growth is open, and there is no point in standing aside - you need to earn. The reason for the intensification of buyers was the data from Baker Hughes that the number of oil rigs in the United States dropped sharply to its lows in 8 months (the number of oil rigs decreased by 15 to 847 pieces). While noting that buying this week intraday, we continue holding mid-term positions on oil for sale. This week promises to be relatively calm after very intensive previous ones. The highlight of the week will be an announcement of outcomes of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Today in terms of macroeconomic statistics is of little interest, so it makes sense to continue to trade within current trends.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
2
News background & trading ideas for 01/02/2019Yesterday was quite mixed for the foreign exchange market. In the beginning, the dollar was under severe pressure. The reason is apparent - outcomes of the last Fed meeting. However, the second part of the day was already scripted by the dollar. Today we are quite negative about the dollar. The reason is the publication of statistics on the US labor market. Seemingly that everything should guide our thoughts in a positive way: last month the fact turned out to be 81% better than the forecast, and the figure of +313K was more than impressive. Plus, the data from ADP published on Wednesday also came out better than expected. Despite all this magnificence, we are pessimistic. We consider the positive surf in the past month as an anomaly related to the holiday season in the United States and the increased but temporary demand for labor in the United States. Besides, we are persuaded that the longest shutdown in US history should be reflected in the economy of the United States, and the labor market is one of those components that reacts faster than other indicators. Recall, about 800,000 public officials were for a month without a salary. And the current shape of the US economy, in general, raises questions. So, we are looking for weak NFP figures. How much worse the forecast, they will come out - this is the question. But a negative surprise can be very, very meaningful. And in this case, the already weak dollar will receive an additional adverse impulse. So we recommend selling the dollar, even without waiting for the publication of official statistics Getting back to the yesterday’s events, we note statistics on the GDP of the Eurozone. Which, although it came out in the projections, however, looked frankly weak in general. Although the euro was not triggered by this data, but by the comments of the Head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, who said that Germany’s economic growth in 2019 would be lower than forecasts that were announced only a few weeks before and Germany would soon face an economic slowdown. Gold continues to increase and only ensures us in our recommendations, which we have been voicing since the time of hold 1235 - the efficiency of buying gold both intraday and in the mid-term. The current movement has not yet exhausted its potential, and the reach of 1350 looks like the only logical scenario. So we continue to recommend gold purchases. Since oil keeps holding above 53.50 (WTI brand), its intraday purchases remain relevant either. Meanwhile in mid-term we sale the oil. Besides, we recommend sales of the Russian ruble even despite the current weakness of the dollar. In the end, from our point of view, the Russian ruble will be weaker anyway.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 31/01/2019Yesterday was exceptionally rich in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Let’s go over the foremost data. The Eurozone once again shocked euro buyers with weak economic data, according to which consumer confidence decreases, as well as the business climate and economic confidence in general. However, the euro has already accustomed to weak statistics from the Eurozone, and there have been no sales. Data on employment in the US from ADP surprised: with the forecast of +181K, the fact came out at around +213K. On the eve of Friday's official statistics on the US labor market, this is a very positive signal for the dollar. The highlight event of yesterday was an announcement of outcomes of FOMC meeting. As markets expected, the rate remains unchanged. Comments generally were dovish. Among interesting details it’s worth admitting the disappearance of the phrase “further rate hike”, and markets got it as a signal that it may not be new hikes at all, moreover Fed is willing to reduce an interest rate. So in that light things started to move exactly as we expected - the dollar came under sales. We continue to recommend the dollar sales. Today is interesting primarily for Eurozone GDP data. Amid a series of disappointing statistics from the Eurozone, it will be rather strange to see figures better than forecasts. So, it is quite likely that the euro will remain under downward pressure today. Nevertheless, yesterday's breakdown of 1.1470 is a strong signal in favor of further growth of the euro. So we recommend euro purchases against the dollar. Besides, it’s worth paying attention to personal income and outlay data in the USA. But by and large, markets will wait tomorrow and a block of data on the US labor market. About our expectations and trading recommendations, we will talk in tomorrow's review. The oil market also did not go without winning movements: the asset made another attempt to hold above the key resistance of 53.50 (WTI brand). A trial seemed a prosperous one, so today, you can try to buy oil intraday , at least until its quotes are above 53.50. The minimum target is 57.20. Stops are below 53.30.
by Trade24Fx
News background & trading ideas for 30/01/2019The most significant events yesterday took place in the British Parliament. The pound in general escaped with slight shock. What pound might be afraid of? First of all, that parliamentarians rejected an amendment about the postponement of Brexit terms. The main outcome of yesterday’s events in the Parliament became an understanding that there is a limited number of followers of exit without a deal, which indicates that the compromise will be inevitable, soon or later. So, Theresa May was sent to Brussels to the new round of negotiations. Actually, everything is going accordingly to our scenario. That’s why our recommendation remains unchanged - continue looking for points for pound purchases. Today promises to be even more intense than yesterday. We are waiting for a block of significant statistics from the US: the ADP report on employment in the private sector (extremely relevant on the eve of Friday data on the US labor market), data on US GDP and last of all, the announcement of the outcomes of the FOMC meeting will end a tough day for the dollar. We will focus precisely on the last issue. At least on dovish comments from Fed officials, since not many people believe in rate hike today (99% of traders consider the rate will remain unchanged). Besides, there is a big risk of additional signals from the Fed in favor of some easing of monetary policy (we are talking about the parameters for reducing the balance of the Fed). This means that the dollar today may be under very severe pressure. We estimate the likelihood of its sales as high. Consequently, we continue to recommend its sales in the foreign exchange market on all fronts. Meanwhile, discussions between the US and China continue, and as long as there is no breakthrough or final outcomes, investors will be under of strain, which means that gold purchases (as long as it is above 1298) remain applicable. Oil, as well as the Russian ruble, is worth selling. The factors that have been supported the Russian ruble in the last couple of weeks (the end of the tax period and the increase in oil prices) stop there. Do not either forget that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has returned to the market and is actively buying dollars.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background and trading ideas for 29/01/2019Monday was relatively calm in the financial markets. Which is understandable, traders keep strength, since already today the real slaughter, at least in some assets. Today, for instance, we’ll get another portion of news from British Parliament. The vote promises to be more than unpredictable. There are a lot of alternatives on the agenda, one is better another: to postpone Brexit, hold a repeated referendum, give Brexit under Parliament control, vote the amendments and send May for another round of negotiations, etc. The outcomes are not predictable. But there is one common thing which unites everybody - the reluctance of the “harsh” Brexit. We warned last fall yet that there are no political suicides in the British Parliament. Actually, now we see the confirmation of this. What does this mean for a pound? By and large, the options for the results are located on a scale from good to very good. “Soft” Brexit is good for a pound. A repeated referendum (which will almost certainly convincingly demonstrate the UK’s desire to remain in the EU) is very good. Accordingly, virtually any outcome of this evening will play into the hands of the pound. This means that you can and should buy it. And do not be afraid that it has already increased by 500 points lately. We have noted before that the growth potential is 1000+ points. So there is still a place for growth. In other news, funding of US government is partially unblocked, but Trump still doesn't show an agreement capacity, which means that it could circle back in a couple of weeks (meaning blocking funding with the possibility of imposing a state of emergency in the country). Plus, the markets are quite skeptical about tomorrow's Fed meeting and its outcomes (but we'll talk about it tomorrow). Amid such circumstances, you probably shouldn’t buy a dollar. So we continue to recommend looking for points for its sales List of our recommendations following the results of Monday without changes: we continue looking for points for the pound purchases, as well as the dollar sales generally. Besides, while oil has not taken hold above 53.50 (WTI brand), we recommend its sales. While gold is above 1294, we are looking for points for its purchases both intraday and mid-term. Recommendations for the Russian ruble sale continue to be relevant.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background and trading ideas for 28/01/2019Last week was marked, as already familiar, by a shutdown in the USA (eventually talks about possible credit downgrade in the US have appeared), as well news from Brexit fields (markets believed in a problem solution out of context “exit without a deal”). As for the dollar’s sell-offs om Friday, it connects at first with shutdown (it’s already reached the point that one of the busiest airports in the country was forcibly closed due to lack of personnel) and secondly the arrest of Republican Roger Stone, the man next to the US President Donald Trump. Stone was arrested on Friday in Florida as part of an investigation into the alleged collusion of Trump's campaign headquarters with the Russian leadership during the 2016 election campaign. The arrest recalled the markets that the investigation against Trump continues, and has quite substantial results. Accordingly, investors fear the development of a political crisis in the United States with the possible impeachment of Trump in the end. As for the shutdown, the financing of government bodies is temporarily open until February 15, but by and large, there is still no settlement between the parties. Another quite amusing moment, fixed on Friday, became a sharp growth of the EURUSD pair. Obviously, the credit goes to the declining dollar, but most significantly that this growth was on another portion of weak statistics data: according to the IFO, the business climate in Germany turned out to be much lower than forecast. The sharp rise in gold on Friday and the breakdown of resistance in 1294 actualized the uptrend, and this week we decided to reconsider our position on the asset. While it is above 1294, we are looking for points for gold purchases. The oil market has recently been out of the investors' attention, but we cannot but note a sharp increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States. According to Baker Hughes, the number of working oil rigs has grown by 10 units. However, before that the indicator had been decreasing for three weeks in a row, so, for now, we can only speak about the appearance of breaking the trend. It is not surprising that oil took the news rather calmly. Volatility in the area of 50.00-53.50 continues, but the strong movement is coming. So you need to be ready to become in its tracks. As for macroeconomic statistics and other events, the week promises to be really intense: the announcement of the Fed's decision on the interest rate (Wednesday), the British Parliament vote on Brexit (Tuesday), US GDP data (Wednesday) and the Euro zone (Thursday), the heads The ECB and the Bank of England (today) will complete all this statistics on the US labor market. This week we continue looking for points for the pound's purchases (but acting with regard to tomorrow, when will take place another Parliament meeting on Brexit issue), as well as for the dollar sales generally. Besides, while oil has not taken hold above 53.50 (WTI brand), we recommend its sales. The conditions for buying gold we voiced above. Recommendations for the Russian ruble sales continue to be relevant.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background and trading ideas for 25/01/2019Yesterday was definitely not the best day for the euro, and this is not about the outcomes of the ECB meeting. In this regard, everything was expectable and predictable, albeit Dragis’ statements were quite dovish. The main issue of the Eurozone recently is extremely weak macroeconomic statics. Yesterday another portion of data was published, which showed that business activity in the Union is on the verge of decline, and in some places is already falling. In particular, PMI in the manufacturing sector in Germany came out at 49.9 (forecast 51.5), which signals in favor of recessionary processes. In France the situation is even worse, Composite PMI was 47.9 with a forecast of 51.0. Nevertheless, we will take it slow and not sell the EURUSD pair, at least because the US dollar, which is a component of this pair, and is in even more unpleasant situation: the shutdown continues, they have not reached a compromise, and investors are increasingly afraid of its consequences. The pound continues to please us and increase. This time, the rumors that the Democratic Unionist Party expressed its readiness to support the new plan for Brexit Theresa May was the reason. Despite the maximum values of the pound against the dollar over the past 2.5 months, we continue to recommend its purchases - the growth potential is far from exhausted. Oil, meanwhile, can’t make up its mind about the direction of movement. On the one hand, data on oil reserves in the US from API showed a sharp increase (+6.5 million barrels), as well as official statistics from the Ministry of Energy (recorded reserves growth of almost 8 million barrels), are pulling the asset down. On the other hand, the revolutionary events in Venezuela are perceived by traders with concern. In this regard, we recommend working very delicately intraday with small stops. The basic direction is sales. Another commodity asset, which looks pretty reversible, is gold. Since the resistance of 1194 has shown excellent resilience, we recommend focusing on looking for points for asset sales, while gold prices are below 1194. The breakdown of this resistance will be a very strong signal in favor of purchases. The Russian ruble is clearly aimed at a test of support 65.50. We take it strengthening as an excellent opportunity for more expensive sales and recommend buying a pair of UDRUB from current ones with the addition of around 65.50. As long as the pair ranges above this point, we see no perils for purchases, but only exceptional opportunities for gaining. The deal parameters are the following: stops below 64.80, and profits at least in the area of 66.80, but you can be even more ambitious and place profit-taking orders in the area of 69.50.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background and trading ideas for 24/01/2019Let's start with the formally most significant event of yesterday's day - the announcement of the outcomes of the Bank of Japan meeting. Technically because by and large, this Central Bank has not given occasions for explosions of volatility and the occurrence of panic waves for a long time. So this time, the parameters of the monetary policy remained unchanged, and the reduction in inflation forecasts was perceived by the markets as a dovish tone. No wonder that the yen was under pressure. This once again confirmed the validity of our current position in the yen - to sell on an upward trend. Traditionally, a few briefs from the Brexit field. Market sentiment continues to change toward the pound. “Harsh” Brexit has gone off the agenda so far, and everyone is debating what will happen instead of it - postponement of Brexit deadline or a repeated referendum. Speaking of the last option, next week in Parliament will be a vote on amendments, which will reduce the probability of exit without a deal and parliament will get the call to decide on a repeated referendum. The initiator of the amendments was the Labour Party opposition. The USA continues to suffer and split between Trump and common sense. So far without much success. And many officials have already talked about extending the shutdown until March. What does this mean for the US economy? According to the economic advisers of the White House, this may lead to a zero (!) growth of the US economy in the first quarter. So we don’t see any reasons to turn over into dollar purchases. Moreover, the latest data on the sale of housing in the secondary US market was frankly a failure (-6.4%, while waiting for a decline of only -1.5%). Today is interesting first of all by the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting. However, the euro is unlikely to get any support. The economy of the Eurozone looks very unpersuasive now so the ECB could afford not only “hawkish” actions, but at least thoughts and statements. However, if the euro goes down to the area of 1.1300, from there a pair of EURUSD with small stops, you can probably try to buy. If, of course, the Central Bank does not present some frankly "dovish" surprise.
Long
by Trade24Fx
News background and trading ideas for 23/01/2019Yesterday was typical for the financial markets day. Usual mean that core informational trends were unchanged. The thirty-second day of a shutdown passed in the USA. At the end of the week, 800,000 servants again will not get paid. The saddest part is the lack of progress in the negotiation process. Trump's “final and best” offer was rejected by Democrats. In light of these events, it’s difficult to disagree with Goldman Sachs, who advise their clients to sell the US dollar. Motivation - the landing of the US economy in 2019 will be tough. Recall that in 2019 we are just looking for points for dollar sales only. Another already traditional an informational irritant is Brexit. Plan “B”, voiced by Theresa May, was well received as an attempt to shove a plan “A”, but in new one packing. Accordingly, there are no chances that it will pass through. British opposition meanwhile is more and more actively expanding the idea of repeated referendum or at least the postponing terms of Brexit. For the pound is going quite well so far. The second referendum is good, and reason to come back to prices, which were before first one. Negotiations and the new deal, and “soft” Brexit consequently - it’s well as well. Note, that the scenario of “harsh” Brexit has completely vanished from agenda. From our perspective, it is the best confirmation of our recommendation buying the pound since its current prices are taking account exactly “harsh” Brexit. Yesterday’s statistics on the UK labor market is another pound positive. Salaries have grown at the highest rates since 2008, while unemployment has declined. Davos started yesterday with a criticism of the Fed and excessive rise of rates by Central Bank. Actually, it’s another thorn in dollar’s side. Oil could not find the strength to take root above 53.50 and grow further. This means that we can come back to its intraday sales. Well, we did not either remove mid-term sales from the list of our ongoing recommendations. As for today, the Bank of Japan, as already traditionally, has remained parameters of monetary policy unchanged. Although the situation with yen is generally mixed and ambiguous, we are leaning to its sales on this week. Among our others positions, note as well intraday sales of gold (you can use the RSI's overbought hour to determine the time of entry), sales of the Russian ruble over the entire investment horizon.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx