Get started

Newstrading

Unpleasant surprise from China, eighth peak, FOMC protocolsLast week, we already wrote about the fear of the “second wave” of the epidemic associated with the opening of economies. Then it led to local sales in the stock markets, as well as the strengthening of the dollar. But then the markets calmed down somewhat and decided to postpone worries about this until actual confirmation of the fears would be received. China, it seems, sends a warning about this to the whole world. The sharp increase in the number of cases in northeast China has already led to new quarantine measures in these regions of China. As a result, more than 100 million people are in the lockdown. According to medics, the virus thoroughly mutated. Now its incubation period is even longer, which means it is more difficult to catch the beginning of the outbreak. And the disease now lasts longer. In general, the news is extremely depressing, especially the surge of optimism associated with the successful passage of the first phase of the coronavirus vaccine test on Monday. The situation in Brazil continues to deteriorate rapidly and the general situation in the world continues to look like a new (already eighth) peak. In Russia, situation continues to remain stably heavy. So the pandemic will be for a long time not only on the headlines, but also harm the global economy. Accordingly, we continue to consider what is happening in the stock markets is a bubble, which sooner or later should burst. Another important event for the markets was the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. We did not expect anything new from them, because recently Powell had already provided comments on key issues and the picture with the Fed was more or less clear. The minutes confirmed that the Fed’s negative rates are not considered, but options for long-term assistance to the economy are considered, since the pandemic and the damage from it are for a long time. According to official figures, oil inventories in the USA fell again, and very significantly: by -4.982 million barrels, with a forecast of +2.150 million barrels. In Cushing, the decrease was even more significant -5.587 million barrels. So the white stripe for oil continues. Bloomberg announced its forecast for the GDP growth rate in Russia in the second quarter. By growth, of course, we mean a decline. Analysts are waiting for a record in history (even compared to the global financial crisis) drop of 16%. In this light, the current attempt of the ruble to strengthen is a great opportunity for its sales at a higher price.
TVC:SPXShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Unemployment in the UK, EU 540+ bln fund and hopes for the bestYesterday turned out to be quite rich in a variety of macroeconomic statistics. The UK has reported a record jump in the number of jobless claims. The number of people applying for unemployment rose to 2.1 million in April from 1.2 million a month earlier, increasing by 70% and reaching the biggest change from the previous month since the start of registration in 1971. So our recommendations to sell the pound continue to be relevant, especially in light of the fact that on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday we are waiting for new data on the state of the UK economy, which will almost certainly be weak. Unlike the pound, the euro has much more reasons for growth. This is primarily a statement by Merkel and Macron that Germany and France will support the creation of a fund of $ 546 billion to help Member States most affected by the outbreak of coronavirus. In addition, the ZEW Expectation Index yesterday showed an unexpected increase to 51 (the highest value over the past 5 years). However, the ZEW current situation index reached -93.5 (!), which somewhat spoiled the mood for buyers of the euro and the DAX index. In general, despite the generally positive fundamental background, the growth potential of the euro against the dollar looks rather limited (we are talking about the resistance near 1.10). But against the pound, growth prospects of euro now cause even less doubt. In this light, we recall our recommendation to buy EURGBP, which we published when the pair was below 0.87. And although the cross has already grown by 250 points since then, its growth potential has not yet been fully exhausted. The optimism about the Moderna vaccine has faded somewhat, since the obvious became clear - it will take months to go on the shelves, so here and now this does not solve the pandemic problem as well as economic problems. Other data confirm that the world economy is now experiencing one of the worst moments in modern history: car sales in the EU fell by 76%, the start of construction drop by 14.1%, in the US the situation is even worse - the start of construction literally collapsed by 30.2% . So our recommendations to sell in the stock markets are still relevant.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
On impossibility of "V" form, vaccine and recession in JapanYesterday started with an official transition of the Japanese economy to the recession stage (two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP). Moreover, a decrease of 1.9% against the previous quarter (7.3% compared to the period a year earlier) is in fact only the beginning of the problems, since it is obvious that the second quarter will be much more disastrous. So Japan joined Germany, France, Italy and other countries that, following the results of the first quarter, went into a state of economic recession. Despite these facts the stock systemically grew, starting from the German Dax, ending with the American Nasdaq. Financial markets continue to live by the principle "the worse, the better." Since we are fans of a rational approach, we continue recommending sells in the stock markets. This growth occurred right after the CBS interview with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he directly stated that the economy would recover for a long time - until the end of 2021. That is, there will be no V-form in the dynamics of economic recovery. The reason for the sharp surge in optimism yesterday was a message from Moderna about the successful testing of the coronavirus vaccine. An early human trial showed that the vaccine produced antibodies against Covid-19 in all 45 participants. The news, of course, is encouraging, but it does not mean that tomorrow the vaccine will appear on the shelves (will not appear), plus its costs and possible scale of production are not clear. But the markets continue to be optimistic and perceive the partial lifting of restrictions as a signal that the worst is behind, and a bright future awaits us all. So the news about the opening of stores in Italy, the growth of traffic in China, the opening of 25 Apple stores in the United States warns the appetite for risk. In this light, we recommend not only sells in the stock markets, but also sell of emerging currencies: the Russian ruble, Indian rupee, Mexican peso, South African runt, Turkish lira, etc. They all, in our opinion, are excellent candidates for sales.
TVC:SPXShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Week in a Glance: second wave, $3 trillion, Powell, Brexit, oilThe past week has passed under the fear of the “second wave” - a new peak of pandemic due to the removal of quarantine restrictions. Recall that many countries are in a hurry to open up, even being unprepared for this. The quintessence of this approach, of course, was Russia, which, according to the results of the week, took the second place in the world in the number of cases, but at the same time it was decided to open the economy on Tuesday. The US is also clearly in a hurry. And even the warnings of the country's main infectious disease specialist could not change Trump's ardor. Even countries such as Germany, prepared for easing restrictions, are now puzzled, as the number of new cases and deaths in the country last week began to grow again. So the fear of the second wave is quite reasonable. The result was not only an increase in fear in the financial markets, but also the accompanying dynamics of the US dollar (strengthened), gold (increased by the end of the week) and stock markets (decreased). This was largely facilitated by the speech of Jerome Powell, who not only dispelled the myth about the Central Bank’s readiness to switch to negative rates, but was generally very pessimistic about the future of the US economy. The past week can definitely be written in the liabilities of the pound, which was under pressure from both weak economic data and news from the negotiation fields, according to which the threat of “hard” Brexit in the current conditions is becoming more tangible. In this light, we recall our recommendation to sell the British pound, which remains relevant this week. And finally, another, important event of the week was a vote in the US Congress on the initiative of the Democrats to allocate an additional $3 trillion to help the US economy in the fight against the crisis caused by the epidemic. And a few words about the oil market. Fundamentally, the week turned out to be extremely favorable, starting from the decision of Saudi Arabia to further reduce production by another 1 million bpd, ending with the first decrease in US oil reserves since January 2020. The upcoming week will be relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic statistics, that is, there will be a lot of data, but they can hardly be called decisive. Accordingly, it makes sense to continue to work as we did: to sell in the US stock market, buy oil, sell the British pound and buy the US dollar.
FX:USOILLong
by Trade24Fx
1
Unemployment, IEA Report, US Retail SalesThe main event of the yesterday was the publication of the next figures on jobless claims in the United States. Experts expected growth by 2.5 million, but in fact the growth amounted to almost 3 million. Thus, the situation in the US labor market continues to deteriorate. This is supported by the fact that Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for unemployment rate from 15% to 25%. We think there is no need to describe what does this mean for an economy where 2/3 of the GDP is generated by the consumer sector. So we continue to recommend sales in the US stock market. The picture for the world in general continues to be extremely sad. According to UBS Group AG analysts, 2020 will be the worst for the Chinese labor market over the last 2 decades. As expected in UBS, the number of jobs in China by the end of the year will be reduced by 10 million (as a rule government expects increase in the number of jobs by 10 million). IEA published its monthly oil market report. On the whole, it can be called relatively optimistic in the sense that forecasts for oil demand were improved (it will decrease not by 9.3 million b / d, but by 8.6 million b / d), while it was noted that supply in May will sharply decrease (by 12 million b / d) to 88 million, which is the minimum value for the last 9 years. In general, the fundamental background for oil continues to be quite positive, and we continue to hold our medium-term purchases. Friday promises to be the busiest day of the week in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Key data - German and Eurozone GDP for the first quarter, US retail sales for April. Markets that have already lost confidence this week are at risk of becoming depressed, as April retail sales data in the US will almost certainly fail (April is a peak of lockdown in the US), and the first quarter in the Eurozone was clearly not the most successful.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Powell and Negative Rates, UK GDP and Oil InventoriesFrom the point of macroeconomic statistics, the main event of yesterday was the publication of data on GDP and industrial production in the UK. The data came out, of course, extremely weak, but better than predicted (industrial production in March fell by -4.2% m / m - with a forecast of -5.6%, and GDP for the first quarter fell by-2.0% q / q with a forecast of -2.6% q / q), which even provided some temporary support to the pound. As for the Eurozone industrial production in March, the data also turned out to be disgusting, but slightly better than forecasts: -11.3% m / m while experts expect the figure to be -12.5%. Overall the growth of the EURUSD and GBPUSD yesterday was more related with the general pressure on the dollar due to the expectation of the speech Jerome Powell (the head of the FED). The fact is that after extremely weak inflation data (US consumer inflation fell by a record 0.8% over the month) and another Trump's attack on the Fed (urged the Central Bank to lower the rates), Powell expected to provide comments on possible negative rates. But they were not followed. Accordingly, the danger for the dollar was over, and it was actively restoring in the foreign exchange market. The stock markets, on the contrary, got a reason to fix profits, which, in fact, was used. Trump, meanwhile, continues to deny reality and insists on opening the US economy as soon as possible. Despite the fact that one of the main infectious disease specialists said at a Senate hearing on Tuesday that such a rush could lead to very serious consequences. And a few words about the oil market. For the second week in a row, the news background was positive for oil buyers. Yesterday, official data on US oil inventories showed the first reduction in stocks over a fairly long period of time (since January 2020). Thus, the main fear of the oil market - the shortage of oil storage facilities and the inability to store newly produced oil automatically disappears. In this light, we recall our medium-term recommendation to buy oil, which was and continues to be an actual trading idea.
FX:USOILLong
by Trade24Fx
1
UK data, Fed and Saudi Arabia Yesterday turned out to be relatively calm for financial markets. In many respects, the absence of significant macroeconomic data contributed to this. What can not be said about today for the British pound: GDP for the first quarter, GDP and industrial production for March - this is enough to ensure high volatility in pound pairs. Considering how badly the UK economy is and how much fundamental negative factors have accumulated around the pound (pandemic, forecasts of the Bank of England, problems in the negotiation process with the EU and the ghost of a “hard” Brexit), there are reasons a) to expect extremely weak data and b) sell the pound without even waiting for these very weak data. So sell GBP is the # 1 trading idea for today. The main news yesterday, which generally explains the runaway growth of the US stock market, was information that the Fed will buy corporate bond exchange funds (ETFs) from Tuesday. What does this decision mean? In principle, this is a revolution in the financial markets. Since now you can safely do what you want - Uncle Sam will insure and if you need to get rid of distressed assets - the Fed will come to the rescue. The Fed also said it would soon begin to buy debts issued directly by companies. That is, if no one gives you a loan, because you are an unreliable borrower - it does not matter - the Fed will take care of you. Of course, we exaggerate the news, but in general, the basic economic linkage “risk-return” is violated. No investors do not have to take into account the risk component in their activities. Not surprisingly, everyone is now buying in the US stock market during deepest crisis in the US economy. After all, the Fed’s next step can be to buy stock market ETFs. The news from the pandemic fronts is generally rather gloomy. After the outbreak in South Korea, information appeared about a sharp increase in the number of cases in Wuhan. China responded to this with a statement that all (!) 11 million residents will be tested. Sweden, meanwhile, seems to be curtailing its experiment in the natural production of antibodies and is beginning to introduce restrictive measures after a sharp increase in the number of deaths. And a few words about the oil market in the end. Saudi Arabia has decided to further reduce oil production in the country by another 1 million barrels per day of existing obligations under OPEC + in the amount of 3.8 million b / d. In total, the country will reduce production by 4.8 million b / d, which is more than a serious amount. On the one hand, this suggests that the country has serious problems and the rise in oil prices it needs as an air, and on the other, it is an excellent signal for those who buy oil. One of the largest oil producers, is ready to do anything to raise oil prices.
Short
by Trade24Fx
1
Fears of the second wave, South Korea and the consequencesAfter last week's rampant fun, it seems the markets are moving on to the hangover stage. The Fear Index on Monday increased, and stock markets, on the contrary, declined. The reason for the change of sentiments was the fear of a new wave of pandemic. Actually, we have already written about this: if Italy, Spain or Germany had more or less objective grounds for the partial removal of restrictions, then the United States against their background looks completely unprepared for the opening of the economy. However, Trump is impatient, like many other countries. Obviously, mitigating quarantine at the peak of a pandemic is a rather dubious adventure with extremely unpleasant consequences. It is not only about a new round of the pandemic, but also about the fact that the economy against this background will have to be closed again. In general, on the one hand, we are happy that at least someone begins to realize how dangerous the rush can be. On the other hand, the authorities are unlikely to reverse their decisions. So just in case, you should prepare for the worst. In this light, stock market sales remain a relevant trading idea, as are dollar purchases. Central banks against this background continue to threaten the consequences for the economies, and also warn about new monetary incentives to fight the crisis. Note that the example of South Korea showed how quickly an ideal country to combat the epidemic can turn into an antihero if measures are cut earlier and stronger than necessary. This refers to the opening of nightclubs in South Korea and the ensuing outbreak of diseases (the number of new cases has increased by almost 10 times over several days). Meanwhile, a scandal with Germany is slowly erupting. After the German court issued an ultimatum in 3 months for the ECB to review the QE program, the European Commission threatens to sure Germany. And a couple of words in the end. We have already noted that statistics on the US labor market came out totally devastating and worst in the entire history of observations. But there was also rather interesting point that few people paid attention to - a sharp increase in wages. It would seem a positive signal. Under normal conditions, yes, but not now. The sharp increase in average hourly earnings only indicates that the least paid workers were losing their jobs much more often than the others. Given that current unemployment assistance is higher than the salary of many low-skilled workers, this can lead to the fact that even when it becomes possible to return to work, workers can simply ignore it. Why, in fact, return to work if you can get more being unemployed. As a result, the budget suffers from excessive deficit and the economy suffers from a lack of workers.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
1
Week in a Glance: re-open, NFP, Bank of England , USA vs China The last week was very busy. The most influencing event of course was a partial opening of the economies of the Eurozone and some US states. As a result, the Fear Index at the end of the week fell to the values that were at the time the pandemic just began. Stock markets, respectively, approached the marks that were before it became clear that the coronavirus would not stop in China. Such behavior of markets is rather strange. The number of cases in the world continued to grow, exceeding the mark of 4 million, and by the end of the week there was not even a hint of a downward trend in the world. On the contrary, the new peak looks much more threatening than the previous 5 peaks (!). That is, at least another 4-5 weeks, the global economy will suffer. How strong? Look at the NFP data to assess the scale of the crisis: -20 million - such a number has never been seen in the history of the United States. That is, the scale of the crisis is unprecedented. In this favor evidence forecasts of the Bank of England announced last week following the meeting on Thursday: the Central Bank predicts the worst economic crisis in the UK since 1706. The central bank said it expects gross domestic product to decline by 14% during 2020 and by 25% in the second quarter. In this regard, despite the fact that the US stock market has completely and totally lost touch with economic reality, during this week we will continue to sell in the US stock market, but with stops. In addition, sales of the pound against the dollar and the euro (sell GBPUSD and buyEURGBP) this week only added relevance. Not only because of the forecasts from the Bank of England, but also in the intensification of talks about the "hard" Brexit. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that the risk of hard Brexit is increasing, since negotiations between the UK and the European Union on future trade relations have not yet led to any progress. It is clear that this is part of the game, but the desire to buy a pound from many should be discouraged with such news. Another important topic of the past week, which does not add optimism and is not taken into account either in the dynamics of the Fear Index or in the dynamics of stock markets, was a sharp increase of tensions between the United States and China. The US wants to make China guilty in its problems associated with the epidemic and threatens to disrupt the implementation of the first phase of the trade deal. China, in turn, threatens to sell off part of the US government debt, which could bring down not only the dollar, but also the entire debt pyramid that the US has been building for years. In the meantime, the fundamental situation in the oil market is changing radically: OPEC + is in game (minus 10 million b / d), the USA is actively reducing production (minus 1.2 million b / d), oil reserves in the USA are growing at a slower pace and the number of active oil rigs in the US reached its lowest level since 1940 (!). At the same time, oil demand, on the contrary, is growing (according to JBC Energy in May it could grow by 7.5 million b / d). It is difficult to imagine better conditions (a sharp decline in supply with a sharp increase in demand) for rising oil prices. So we recall our medium-term idea for oil purchases, which, despite the recent growth of the asset by a couple of hundred percent, remains relevant.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Expect for a weak NFP and for the worst economic crisis in UKThe main event of yesterday in the financial markets was the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England. Monetary policy parameters remained unchanged, but Central Bank warned it may to increase the size of the quantitative easing program as early as next month. The pound’s attempt to grow on this news ended quickly enough, as the Bank of England predicts the worst economic downturn in the UK since 1706. The central bank said it expects gross domestic product to decline by 14% during 2020 as a whole and by 25% in the second quarter. So today we recommend to sell the pound. Jobless claims in the USA continue to come out with millionth values (again more than 3 million), which cannot but scare the markets ahead of official statistics on the US labor market. This data is always of great interest to financial markets in view of their exceptional importance and ability to show not only what happened to the economy a month ago and is happening now, but also what will happen to it in the foreseeable future. The labor market is a leading indicator of the economy. Its sharp deterioration today is a signal that tomorrow there will be weak data on industrial production, retail sales and, in a couple of months, on GDP. Friday's NFP data are predicted to be the worst in the history of observations. On average, experts expect a decrease in the number of newly created jobs by 22 million. To understand the scale of what is happening, we note that 20 million is approximately the number of jobs that have been created in the US labor market over the past 10 years (!). Why is the -22 million figure really real? We suggest looking at the figures for jobless claims. Recall that the basis for calculating the NFP for the month of April is the data for the end of March until the 20th of April. That is, purely arithmetic, we have 3.3 + 6.8 + 6.6 + 5.2 = +21.9 million unemployed. Thus, the figure of 22 million is quite real. Our calculations are also confirmed by the employment data from ADP, published on Wednesday. They even slightly exceeded the -20 million mark. A logical question arises how to make money on this unique situation that the US have never encountered in their entire history. Since this is about the state of the US economy, the stock market as well as the US dollar are obvious candidates for trade. The following plan is proposed. Sell in the US stock market, which in the last month completely ignores the fact of the economic crisis, despite extremely weak statistics and even more failed quarterly corporate reporting. But this cannot last forever. Sooner or later, bulls in the stock market will have to admit the fact that economic reality has changed dramatically and has changed for the worse, and the stock market has not yet taken this into account in prices. So Friday’s data is ideal for the role of a cold sobering shower. That is why we recommend selling the US stock indices today. In general, if you listen to any competent expert, then this development of events seems to be the only reasonable option. For example, the head of BlackRock ($ 8 trillion under management) Larry Fink said that the United States should prepare for massive bankruptcies among small and medium-sized businesses, empty planes and cautious consumers, as well as raising the corporate income tax. As for the US dollar, three months ago, on such data expectations, we would recommend selling it literally for the entire margin. But now the situation in the financial markets has changed. In the last couple of months, at times when the markets are scared, the demand for the dollar has increased dramatically. That is why, no matter how strange it sounds, we recommend buying a dollar against the backdrop of disastrous data on the US labor market. Motivation: weak data is a reminder to markets that have recently relaxed greatly, how deep the economic abyss is. A natural reaction to this will be an increase in fear, which in turn will provoke an increase in demand for dollars. Note that the markets are not only interested in the dollar itself, but rather in the absence of risky US Treasury bonds, for the purchase of which dollars are needed.
Long
by Trade24Fx
5
Bank of England, US Labor Market, Trump and the EuroThe main event on Wednesday was the publication of US employment data from ADP in April. Median forecasts in the region of -20 million in fact were justified by almost 100%. So the markets received another reminder that it takes only one month of lockdown to destroy everything that was created in the US labor market over the previous 10 (!) years. But this week the topic of the US labor market is not exhausted. Today we are waiting for the next weekly data on the number of jobless claims in the United States. And tomorrow will be the most interesting - official statistics from the US officials: NFP and unemployment. But we’ll talk about this tomorrow. Today we recall that in the light of this state of the labor market, sales in the stock labor market remain relevant. In addition, we continue to recommend the purchase of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, since now the dollar acts on the contrary: the worse the data, the greater the demand for it. The euro was under pressure yesterday because of the another weak data on the Eurozone economy. Retail sales fell by almost 10%, and business activity indices have habitually reached the lowest levels in the history of observations. The European Commission announced its assessment of the damage to the EU economy: a 7.7% decline for the year (again a record high). Returning to optimism in the financial markets, which rose sharply due to news of easing restrictions and the gradual withdrawal from quarantine of European countries. The United States and, in the first place, Trump really want to keep up with Europe in this regard. But the current epidemiological situation in the United States is not very conducive to mitigation. Even Trump admitted this yesterday, and outlined what everyone tried not to talk about: the rush to mitigate the lockdown means additional victims. But Trump, apparently, is ready to go for it. The main event on Thursday will be the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England. Central Bank almost for sure won’t touch the rate, but the expansion of the quantitative easing program is possible. In addition, officials are likely to comment on the state of the UK economy. Almost certainly they will be extremely depressing. In this light, we recall our recommendation to sell the British pound against the dollar (selling GBPUSD) and against the euro (buying EURGBP).
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
USA vs China, weakening of restrictions, more weak dataThe start of the week was surprisingly calm. Volatility as for the last time was rather low. In many respects this was facilitated by the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, as well as the very busy previous week. In general, traders decided to take a breath. The main event of yesterday in terms of macroeconomic statistics was the publication of Markit indexes on the Eurozone. Confidence fell to a record low in April, and job cuts were the sharpest since 2009. The overall activity in the Eurozone fell to 33.4, the lowest level since the start of publication in 1997. The manufacturing component fell to 18.1, well below level 50. US manufacturing orders fell 10.3% in March. The whole world this week is following the US rhetoric towards China, which is becoming more aggressive every day. The United States wants to blame China for the development of the virus and its subsequent spread in the world, the main victims of which were precisely the US. Potentially, this is a very bad situation with the worst possible consequences (as if the world economy lacked problems without it). From conditionally positive news, it is worth noting that the economies of many countries are planning this week to remove some of the restrictive measures and begin the gradual release of their lockdowns. And if in Italy, Germany or Spain, this seems like a natural evolutionary process after 5 weeks of a downward tendency in the development of the epidemic, and then the removal of restrictions in the United States looks clearly premature, because there the pandemic is still at its peak and there is no any positive tendency yet. But some states are already opening parks, restaurants and introducing other mitigation measures. This is potentially fraught with stretching the duration of the epidemic or even reaching a new peak. By the way, Japan against this background extends the state of emergency in the country until the end of May. So we do not see any reason for optimism in the stock markets and continue to recommend sales primarily in the overbought US stock market.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: Central banks, remdesivir, earnings seasonLast week once again turned out to be extremely rich on events and movements in the financial markets. The main anti-hero of the week was the US dollar, which was under rather strong downward pressure. The reason is the growth of optimism against the background of information about the wonderful properties of remdesivir - the “magic pill” from Gilead, which should help in the fight against the pandemic, then about the easing restrictions and reopening of economies, also about the steps of the Bank of Japan, which decided to remove the limits on purchases government debt, in fact giving a card blanche to any government action to support the economy, and the financial results of the largest US corporations, which came out not as bad as they could be. But the end of the week passed on a minor note. Weak data from the USA (GDP decreased by 4.8% - by the way, the first decline since 2009, and the number of unemployed increased by almost 4 million over the week) and the Eurozone (GDP decreased by 3.8%), the overall failure of the earrings season ( corporate profits fell radically and forecasts for the future are even darker), an increase in the number of diseases, as well as the potential failure of attempts to open the German economy - all these led not only to a decrease in the US stock market at the end of the week, but also to a partial recovery of the dollar in the foreign exchange market, especially against commodity and emergency currencies. In this regard, our recommendations for the current week are globally unchanged: we will continue to look for opportunities to buy the dollar, especially against the Russian ruble and commodity currencies, we will also sell in the US and Eurozone stock markets. We still find market optimism too premature. Especially when you consider that there is an indicator like China, which is ahead of everyone by a couple of months and acts as a kind of litmus test for future economic processes in the rest of the post-epidemic world. The "Economist" gave some statistics on economic activity in China after quarantining. Trains in the subway and domestic flights fell by a third, the cost of visiting restaurants fell by 40% and so on. That is, while there is no vaccine, in the next few months, there is nothing to count on at least approaching the pre-crisis levels of economic activity. As for our medium-term position in oil, it is unchanged - we continue to hold purchases. The situation in the oil market after a few demarches of the USO (world's largest oil ETF-fund) stabilized. The supply is falling rapidly, OPEC + is starting to act, oil inventories in the US are growing at a slower pace than expected - apparently the worst is over (looks like). And a few words about the upcoming week. It will be calmer from the point of news background: the peak of the earnings season has passed, most central banks have spoken. But this does not mean that high volatility will disappear. Especially on Friday, when statistics on the US labor market will be published. Well, the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday also should not be written off, especially in the light of our medium-term EURGBP purchase position, which continues to be relevant this week.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Another sad jobless, earnings and a bit about ruble The main events of yesterday were centered around statistics from Europe and the United States, as well as reporting by US corporations. The data came out habitually weak. But on the whole, quite unexpectedly, Europe looked relatively less weak then the United States. Partially this can explain yesterday's growth of the euro against the dollar (besides this, traders talk about the end of the month and the related rebalancing of investment portfolios, which provoked a sharp increase in demand for the euro). EU GDP for the first quarter fell, but not by 4.8% in the United States, but by 3.8%. Unemployment increased, but only slightly (from 7.3% to 7.4%), which looked particularly contrasted with information from the United States, where the number of jobless claims increased by another 3.8 million, and expectations of unemployment in the United States at around 20 % are already perceived as a given. In this regard, the McKinsey & Co. report turned out to be quite revealing, which states that up to 57 million US workers will suffer from the economic consequences of the pandemic. In general, everything is still extremely bad in the USA and the Eurozone. Accordingly, the stock market, both the United States and Europe - is an excellent object for sales. As for the relatively good reports from US giants, we recall that you should not confuse the exception with the rules. The rule is that, with rare exceptions (Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon), the financial conditions of the vast majority of US corporations has deteriorated sharply: we are talking about a drop in sales by tens of percent and profits at times. So there is still no reason to buy in the US stock market. The ECB meeting did not bring any surprises. The rate was left unchanged, and the head of the Central Bank of Europe, Christine Lagarde, warned that the region would experience an unprecedented economic downturn. In general, according to the results of the week of the Central Banks, the Bank of Japan turned out to be the most aggressive. Beating the dollar in the foreign exchange market, which was systemic and consistent throughout the first half of the week, yesterday became quite chaotic. The dollar suffered losses against the euro and the pound, but it strengthened against the Japanese yen, Canadian and Australian dollars. Friday is generally good for taking profits in the EURUSD and GBPUSD purchases. So today we tend to sell these pairs within the day. Naturally, we will do this without fanaticism and with mandatory comparatively small stops. And one more thing about our favorite position - the sale of the Russian ruble. Yesterday, extremely unfortunate news appeared for him. According to Bloomberg, the Russian Federation plans to allow the Central Bank to print money for the purchase of government bonds. The purpose of this maneuver is understandable - to close the black hole in the budget. But the signal for the ruble is negative. On the one hand, this is a recognition of the lack of domestic demand for government bonds in sufficient volume (external demand in the current conditions is weak). On the other hand, this is the launch of a printing press, which means inflation. There is another aspect of the problem. Formally, all this is proposed so as not to touch the reserves. On this occasion, there is an assumption that the authorities are very afraid to show that the king is naked - this means a strong discrepancy between the nominal size of the National Wealth Fund and the real liquid assets that are available. In general, the ruble's prospects are not yet in doubt. So feel free to sell.
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
“Magic pill”, economic data and Central BanksSince the pandemic began, it is difficult to find a simple day in the financial markets, but among difficult days there are especially difficult ones. That was yesterday and will be today as well. The markets yesterday continued to be optimistic: they were not stopped by not very weak data on US GDP for the first quarter (the indicator decreased by 4.8% with a forecast of -4% and the past + 2.1%), nor a very sad in general earnings season in the USA, when ¾ companies report a radical decline in profits amid falling sales, nor the general extremely sad prospects for the second quarter. The news that Gilead Sciences invented the “magic pill” from the coronavirus firmly settled in the minds of investors. Gilead's experimental antiviral drug, remdesivir, has helped improve symptoms in patients with COVID-19. And although recently there was information from China that remdesivir does not give a confirmed effect in the treatment of COVID-19, the markets felt blood. Accordingly, everything goes as it happens in such cases: the VIX index was falling, stock markets were growing, the dollar was falling, commodity currencies and currencies of developing countries were strengthening. The Fed left monetary policy parameters unchanged. There were no sound statements. So the Central Bank did not prevent the markets from being charged with optimism. The optimism of investors in the stock market was supported by relatively good reports from tech giants and simply stock market influencers: Microsoft, Facebook, Tesla. It is important to understand that a pandemic and lockdowns generate problems for the vast majority of companies, and for many, this is a deadly thing at all. But there are individual corporations that benefit from it. It is important to separate the rules from the exceptions to the rules. The markets are clearly trying to pass off as wishful thinking, in fact, no matter how strange it sounds, it makes little difference here and now. There was no doubt that sooner or later the humans will be able to fight the coronavirus. But the damage to the economy has already been done and will continue to be done in the foreseeable future (even if remdesivir really helps, tomorrow it will not appear on the shelves and will not move us back in time). Just in case, we note that the United States successfully overcame the mark of a million officially infected. But the fact that stocks are being bought in the stock market despite the fact that the cost of the each dollar of profits has grown significantly and the immediate prospects are extremely negative is frankly surprising. But we do not plan to change our sell recommendation for the US stock market. The market is extremely overvalued - look at it through the prism of P / E, or EPS or any other adequate investment metric. As for the dollar, its intraday purchases by and large remain relevant, as, indeed, are our favorite medium-term positions in foreign exchange market: sell the Russian ruble, buy EURGBP. For other positions (AUDUSD sales, USDCAD purchases, GBPUSD and EURUSD sales) prices are extremely good for opening positions here and now. Current day is interesting primarily for the ECB decision and data on GDP, as well as unemployment figures in the Eurozone. In addition, data on jobless claims are already traditionally of great interest. Analysts expect further growth in the number of unemployed, which amounts to millions. Which once again confirms how bad everything really is.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
1
A difficult day ahead: earnings season, US GDP and Fed dayThe pressure on the dollar in the foreign exchange market this week is a direct result of the sharp rise in optimism in the financial markets. Which in turn is connected with the news about the gradual and soon exit of many countries from the lockdown. Today will be very important day for both the dollar and the US stock market. US GDP statistics for the first quarter will be published. Analysts expect a decrease of 4%. Although there are pessimists who expect a deeper fall up to 20-30%. This is about the estimates of the White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett. In our opinion, this is rather an attempt to scare the markets, since 2/3 of the first quarter were for the United States outside the lockdown. That is, we will see all the power of negativity only in the second quarter. In any case, you should be prepared for weak data. It sounds strange but weak data will play in favor of dollar. So today we recommend to buy it. After then the Fed will say its word. Interest rate will almost certainly be left unchanged (100% of traders believe this). But a statement of the fact of a sharp deterioration in the US economy may well return buyers in the stock markets to reality. Our position in the stock market is unchanged in any case: only sales. Let's pay attention to another interesting fact regarding the SP500 index. Currently, only 5 companies (Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon) make up 20% of the index capitalization. This makes its dynamics totally dependent on the behavior of stock prices of these companies. Today report Facebook and Microsoft, and tomorrow Apple and Amazon. If markets will be disappointed by their figures, this could trigger a sharp drop in the entire US stock market. Recall that when market power begins to concentrate in the hands of a limited number of players, this leads to vulnerability of the entire market. You don’t have to go far for an example: the oil market and the USO ETF fund. Another fund re-positioning this week triggered a new round of oil sales. Google already reported yesterday and, unlike the vast majority of other companies, were able to show better results than analysts had expected. However, this exception only confirms the rule: the most of the companies show a sharp decline in profits right up to the transition to the territory of losses.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
1
About market optimism and its reasons, money winsCentral banks have so accustomed financial markets to stimulus that they expect more and more money from each new meeting of the Central Banks. This week three leading Central Banks will announce their decisions on the parameters of monetary policies: the Bank of Japan, the Fed and the ECB. The Bank of Japan has already met these expectations by increasing the limit for the purchase of corporate bonds and commercial debt securities - up to 20 trillion yen. But most importantly, the Central Bank confirmed the expectations of the markets regarding the rejection of the limits on the purchase of government debt (previously the size of purchases was limited to 80 trillion yen per year). This means that any government initiative to provide economic aid in Japan will be funded by the Bank of Japan. The Central Bank left the rate unchanged. As a result on the start of the day, the stock markets gladly accepted this news. This is another portion of steroids to continue the crazy and thoughtless growth. Since we consider madness to be temporary, our recommendation to sell in the stock markets remains relevant. The global economy is experiencing the worst crisis since the Great Depression, but the stock markets are at the levels of December 2019, when no one could even imagine what is happening now in a nightmare. To understand how much current prices are divorced from reality just look at the latest Adidas report. Profit fell 95% (!). Since this week, 173 companies out of 500 in the S & P 500, including Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft, are reporting on the results of the first quarter, it is possible that markets will accept reality very soon. Another reason for general optimism was the information that most countries after a month of lockdown are not ready to support it further in the strictest form and are preparing to gradually soften the conditions. Rationale - the peak of the pandemic has passed. Considering that last Friday, was recorded an absolute maximum for the daily new cases, it is obvious that this is an attempt to give the wish for a real, but in fact, just a desperate measure. If at first it was decided to sacrifice the economy, now the choice is inclined "in favor" of people. Money ultimately turned out to be more important than lives. Note that Britain does not support this initiative. Considering that the country's economic data have recently been worse than ever, the euro may well get a handicap against the pound, so we recall our recommendation to buy a pair of EURGBP. The deepest depression continues to reign on commodity markets, and therefore we recommend opening medium-term short positions in basic commodity currencies: the Australian and Canadian dollars. Australia's exports are totally dependent on the commodity market (70-80% of the country's exports are raw materials), while Canada, in turn, is highly dependent on the situation in the oil market.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
1
Welcome to the real world, Trump, Oil and Bank of Russia Yesterday's Eurozone and UK PMI indices can be called a cold shower or a return to the real world. The Eurozone composite PMI was at 13.5 (forecast 25.0). In the UK, the picture was even worse: 12.9 with a forecast of 29.5. The picture for the services sector in both cases was even worse 11.7 and 12.3, respectively. Obviously, this is a complete failure. Although the failure was absolutely expected, as we warned about in yesterday’s review. In the light of such sad data on the pound, let us recall that EURGBP is in the buying zone, and sales of the GBPUSD pair are also quite promising. Further sad statistics came from the USA. Data on jobless claims has traditionally been very disappointing (+4.4 million unemployed). In general, the woes of the US labor market have not yet seen an end. First the employees of the restaurant, hotel business, as well as factories and factories were injured, now office workers and support personnel have joined them. According to a Gallup poll, a quarter of working Americans believe they will lose their jobs in the next 12 months. So forecasts of an unemployment rate of 20% from a terrible tale are becoming closer to reality every day. Other statistics for the United States also did not please: sales of new homes fell by 15.4%, as did PMI indices, which fell to area 27. In this light, let us remind that the prices in the US stock market radically differ from reality. And sooner or later they will have to admit that everything is bad. And then we will witness a fall, the scale of which will amount to tens of percent. Accordingly, current prices are a gift to be taken. This is a winning lottery ticket, all that is needed is just to take part in this lottery. The strengthening of the Russian ruble amid a decrease in panic in the oil market, we consider as another gift, which is simply criminal to ignore. The Bank of Russia today will almost certainly make it clear that there is nothing left for carry traders in the Russian Federation to do, so the ruble will have nowhere to go except to look into the abyss, especially with such oil prices. And the abyss is sure to look back. And a few words about the oil market. Trump tweeted about the destruction of Iranian ships in response to their unsafe maneuvers and again introduced the variable “geopolitical tension in the Middle East” into the oil price equation. We, in turn, recall that the current situation in the oil market can fundamentally be described as nowhere worse. But there are about a dozen reasons that can improve the situation, beginning with a decrease in production from OPEC + and other countries, ending with the Trumps’ tweet mentioned above.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
4
Data Day, earnings season and another money injectionAll the most interesting yesterday in terms of price dynamics again occurred in the oil market. But past enthusiasm was no longer observed. On the start of the day oil was kicked more by inertia than by a fit of enthusiasm. Which suggests that the worst is behind. Of course it’s too early to completely relax, but perhaps it’s already possible to take breath. Plus, finally, there was a clear explanation of the mess on Tuesday. With Monday everything was clear - the expiration of the May contracts. But why did they beat July futures on Tuesday? Their expiration is far ahead. The whole thing turned out to be the decision of the world's largest oil ETF, which owns from 1/5 to ¼ of all oil futures to reposition and move its position from June futures to July and other longer periods. That is, there is logic in the events and it is more connected with technical issues than with the fact that the laws of the economy stopped working. One more interesting thing for us was a statement by an analyst at Mizuho Bank that oil could reach -$ 100 per barrel. When such forecasts appear in the market (from the past, one can recall Bitcoin at 100K or even 500K, Tesla at 2K per share, etc.), then the situation has already reached the terminal stage. From the news of the day, it is worth noting the successful passage of legal procedures in the United States of another package of aid to small businesses of almost $ 500 billion. The stock market met this with moderate optimism. In general, investors can be understood, especially those who read the Delta Air Lines quarterly report. For the first time in 9 years, the company reported losses. After a profit of $ 730 million a year earlier, in the first quarter, losses amounted to $ 534 million. But this is only the beginning of the problems. The company predicts a drop in revenue in the second quarter of 90% (!). This is where the company's problems will be demonstrated in all its beauty. So we do not get tired of reminding about the feasibility of sales in the US stock market. Thursday will be an exceptionally busy day for financial markets in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Traditionally, for the last time, the main attention will be focused on jobless claims data. Another terrible figure is expected in the region of 4 million. In light of what has been happening on the oil market recently, as well as the inability of the system to process applications, we will not be surprised if the data comes out again above 5 million. In addition, on Thursday will be published PMI indices for Germany and the Eurozone in general, the UK, as well as the United States. This will be the April data, so there is every reason to expect the worst data you can imagine. Accordingly, the euro and the pound will probably be under pressure. And after US data the dollar in turn can be under pressure. In general, the day expects to be volatile not only in the oil market, but also in the foreign exchange and stock markets.
FX:USOILLong
by Trade24Fx
2
The bottle neck of the oil market, panic and fear are backWhat happened yesterday in the oil market can be explained by the transition to a new reality in the awareness of what is happening and the boundaries of the possible. Fear was firmly entrenched in the hearts and minds of traders and completely clouded their minds. However, according to the old expression of traders, now is just the moment when you need to go against the herd: buy when everyone is scared, and sell when greed reigns in the market. Or a modification of this expression from Buffett: “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”. The fall of May WTI contracts on Monday to - $ 50 per barrel settled a feeling of deep uncertainty about tomorrow. But what if this happens again next month? As a result, a mass exodus of alarmists from the oil market began. It's hard to blame them, and easy to understand. We still think that current situation is a typical bottleneck problem. Yes, here and now the demand has drastically decreased, here and now many storage facilities are full, producers continue to pump and pump pre-crisis volumes of oil. This narrow neck is very limited in time and will most likely be calculated in days. Since May, the OPEC + deal comes into force, US oil producers are actively curtailing their activities, but the economies of most countries, on the contrary, will gradually be un-paused. Seas and oceans are plowed by floating oil storage facilities with storage potentials of up to 2 billion barrels, of which 250-300 million are so far filled at best. All of this together will lead to a total change in market situation. But, of course, only those who can seep through the bottleneck of the oil market will be able to capitalize on this. So we continue to hold purchases of oil and believe that the risks are actually greatly exaggerated and generally incorrectly assessed by the markets because of their emotional state (fear and panic). Recall also that we do not sit in one position, but have a whole set of them. While losses are still accumulating in oil, good profits are generated, for example, by sales of the Russian ruble, as well as sales on the US stock market and EURGBP (all these positions were mentioned on Monday in a week in a glance report). So fear and panic are reliable helpers who help not only to compensate losses from what is happening on the oil market, but also to earn in general. Current losses in oil for us so far are simply profits postponed in time. Perhaps the last thing that prevents the stock market from collapsing into the abyss is the incessant flow of money from the Central Banks. Monetary authorities of the G7 countries only in March bought assets worth $ 1.4 trillion in the framework of quantitative easing programs. But again, this process cannot last forever. Another reason for the growth of fear was the information that the leader of North Korea is on the verge of death. And this means a possible change of power in the country with a very unobvious result of this. Overall our positions are as follows: buy EURGBP, buy USDRUB, sell the US stock market and buy oil. Additional positions for today are buy USDCAD today and look for opportunities to buy gold (but here we act without fanaticism and will use reasonable stops).
FX:USOILLong
by Trade24Fx
Worst day in oil history, more money to god of moneyPerhaps the main news yesterday was the fall of WTI crude oil to its lowest level in history. Anyway, yesterday will go down in history as the worst day in the history of the oil market: losing 300% (!) of price per day is definitely an achievement. But you need to understand what kind of oil that has lost 3 times of its value. We are talking about the May futures. In many ways, what happened yesterday in the oil market was a technical issue. The expiration date for the May futures contracts on the WTI brand was on April 20. Since there is no demand here and now for physical oil (pandemic, lockdown and economic crisis), and the storages are full, none of the owners of futures contracts wanted to execute them. Roughly speaking, nobody now needs a physical supply of oil, because here and now there is nothing to do with real oil. Accordingly, buyers began to get rid of contracts. The fact that there are a lot of them, and they began to do it at the very last moment provoked a fall almost to the area - $ 40 per barrel. As a result, the price difference between the May and near contracts reached completely indecent and historically record highs. In general, now those who have the opportunity to store oil can get rich. Judging by the current difference, the cost of storing a barrel of oil reaches $ 40 for a couple of months. So those who have a couple of empty tanks in reserve could well buy May futures for $ 40 yesterday and sell June or July futures at the same time. Futures of longer periods suffered yesterday too, but far from critical losses (just look at the prices for June or July futures to understand that nothing was lost and the world is still here). Reason: everyone understands that there is a current moment with its momentary characteristics, and there is a prospect for the development of events. So, the prospect is such that in the very foreseeable future, demand will mostly recover, and the storage facilities will accordingly begin to be actively emptied. It is this fact that supports us in the belief that oil purchases from current prices or higher are not a problem position. The shock associated with the epidemic is limited in time: all that buyers need is patience. Some positions just need to be sustained. This is definitely the case. In the USA, meanwhile, they continue to make more and more money as a sacrifice to the God of Money. We are talking about a package of measures to help small businesses in the amount of $ 500 billion. It is expected that legislative procedures will be successfully passed by the end of the week. In the US stock market this week, the focus is on the earnings season. Banks last week seriously failed, losing some 50% and some almost 90% of profits. This week 74 out of 500 companies from the SP500 index report, so it will be very hot. And when energy companies or airlines will report, the return to the reality of bulls can be very tough. On average, analysts expect earnings in the second quarter to fall by 26.7% (5.7% growth was forecast before the epidemic). This will be the biggest decline since the first quarter of 2009, when earnings fell 41.1%, according to FactSet. Recall, we strongly recommend selling on the US stock market, which we consider absolutely divorced from reality. Lets quote Scott Maynerd, investment director at Guggenheim Investments ($ 270 billion under management): “Speaking about current P / E levels, the stock market has no intrinsic value. The growth of stock indices is due solely to liquidity”.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
4
Week in a Glance: Trump’s Plan and Pandemic, China and IMFLast week was traditionally full of records and loud statements. The loudest traditionally was Trump, who presented a three-phase plan to re-open the US economy. Given that no deadlines have been announced, and the criteria for implementing the plan are quite stringent, it’s even more than premature to be optimistic. Rather, it is an attempt to make a good face in a bad game. Just because last week the number of new COVID-19 cases exceeds 2 million, and in the United States this week may well see the first millionth case. In general, voices about leaving the lockdowns sounded louder last week. From the very start of May, Germany will start to re-open the economy: first it will open small shops, schools and unlock the activities of car dealers. At the same time, everyone is looking towards China, which has already come out of the lockdown, and in theory shows what will happen to the rest of the countries in a few weeks. Including situation in economy. Last week, data were released on GDP (-6.8%), industrial production (-1.1%) and retail sales (-15.8%) for March. The data are terrible (the first decline in China's GDP over the past 50 (!) years), but the consensus is such that it could be much worse. In this regard, the hopes for the happy end activated, which led to a sharp increase in stock prices. We continue to be pessimistic and recommend using this growth as an opportunity for sales. On Tuesday, the IMF published their vision of the current situation as well as future projections. Overall current economic problems are much worse than the global financial crisis (IMF expects a 3% drop in global GDP for the year). This week we will continue to buy EURGBP. There will be a lot of statistics for the UK, which will almost certainly be unpleasantly surprising. In addition, the UK returned to the negotiating table with the EU, which means an almost guaranteed influx of negative news. Of the other planned events, we note the meeting of the Bank of Russia, which will almost certainly lower the rate and most likely significantly. For the ruble, this will be a strong blow. So do not wait until Friday and sell the ruble now, while it is still relatively expensive. Medium-term oil purchases continue to be relevant for us, since market self-regulation mechanisms are already in place. The number of active oil rigs in the USA decreased in just a week by 66 to 438 units, and oil production in the USA decreased by 100 K bpd in a week to 12.3 million bpd (in March production was 13.1 million bpd). Our basic medium-term positions are as follows: sales on the stock markets, oil purchases (last week we added purchases from $ 20 in the WTI brand) and gold purchases, sales of the Russian ruble and other emerging currencies (for example, the Turkish lira, Indian rupee, Mexican peso), as well as the purchase of EURGBP.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Trump's plan, rising unemployment, and statistics from ChinaThe main event of yesterday, traditionally since the start of the lockdown in the USA, was the publication on Thursday of the jobless claims data. And traditionally, the indicator justified the most pessimistic forecasts: 5.2 million. So now, in just 4 weeks, the labor market has officially lost over 20 million jobs (this is what US labor market has created during last 10 years(!)). Of course this upsets Trump. As a result, the President unveiled a plan to re-open the United States, which includes 3 phases. The first phase: employers should telework where possible, return to work in phases, minimize non-essential travel and make accommodations for the vulnerable populations within the workforce. The second phase: non-essential travel for employers can resume. Schools and organized youth activity can reopen. Bars can operate with diminished standing room occupancy. The third phase: all these venues -- bars, gyms and large venues -- can reopen with “limited” social distancing and “standard” sanitation. Employers can resume “unrestricted staffing of worksites,” so employees can physically return to work. Note that the transition to the implementation of this plan is possible only if criteria such as "downward trajectory" of reported "influenza-like illnesses," "covid-like syndromic cases" and "documented cases" or "positive tests as a percent of total tests" within a 14-day period, as well as the ability for hospitals to "treat all patients without crisis care" and have a "robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing"are satisfied. On the one hand, Trump’s plan can mitigate the economic blow from the pandemic and accelerate the economy, but on the other hand, it can bring pandemic to a brand new level. In general, rather mixed news. Our position on the US stock market is unchanged: only sell. The situation in Germany is somewhat similar. Against the background of information about the maximum number of new cases of the COVID-19 over the past 5 days, the country's authorities are planning to open small shops and all car dealers from next week. Schools will be partially open from May 3rd. Mass events are still banned. At the same time, other countries, although they talk about the need to remove the lockdowns, nevertheless, extend them. For example, the UK extended the lockdown in the country for another 3 weeks. Japan has expanded the state of emergency throughout the country. The main event of today has already become: the publication of statistics from China. It was a rather comprehensive block of data, which included the first quarter GDP, industrial production and retail sales. The data came out pretty mixed. On the one hand, GDP for the first quarter collapsed by 6.8% (the forecast was a decrease of 6.5%), and retail sales fell by 15.8% (against the forecast of -10%), on the other hand, industrial production in March fell only 1.1% (analysts expected a drop of 7.3%). In addition, inflationary data from Europe is waiting for us today, but by and large, now everyone is not up to them - there are more important problems. As for our positions, these are medium-term sales in the stock markets, medium-term oil purchases (this week were added to the purchase from $ 20 in the WTI mark) and gold purchases, sales of the Russian ruble and other emerging (for example, the Turkish liras, Indian rupees, Mexican pesos), as well as the purchase of EURGBP.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
1