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Understanding Euro Zone Economic NewsEuro Zone Economic News Explained: Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing: The Purchasing Managers Manufacturing report is a survey of manufacturing providers in the Eurozone (EZ) and focuses in on issues such as costs and demand. Essentially, a strong PMI, in which costs are low and demand is improving is bullish for the Euro, whereas a survey that results in increasing costs and decreasing demand implicates speculation against the Euro. Manufacturing is a significant component of the EZ economy, and thus a survey that indicates optimism or pessimism about the sector can really get the markets moving, the Euro in particular. A reading of 50 is a critical measure in the PMI index with a number below 50 indicating contraction and a number above 50 indicating expansionary conditions. Taking a strong position based solely on the PMI Manufacturing Survey though could prove to be regretful. Purchasing Managers Index Services: The Purchasing Managers Services report is a survey of service providers in the EZ and focuses in on issues such as costs and demand. Essentially, a strong PMI, in which costs are low and demand is improving is bullish for the Euro, whereas a survey that results in increasing costs and decreasing demand implicates speculation against the Euro. A reading of 50 is critical measure in the PMI index with a number below 50 indicating contraction and a number above 50 indicating expansionary conditions. The services sector is very important to the EZ and any significant gains or shortcomings could set the Euro climbing or falling. Retail Trade: Retail Trade is the measure of retail sales, and thus the willingness of the consumer to spend. An upswing in this figure could result in Euro buying whereas a shortfall could cause Euro selling. This number is very important to the trader because it correlates to consumer conditions and outlook within the EZ region. If the Retail Trade figure comes in strong it means that consumers are spending money and thus are probably well off, hinting that EZ consumer confidence and the CPI may also be strong. However, if Retail Trade figures are low, it could suggest that interest rates are too high, consumer confidence is sinking, or businesses are suffering. Clearly, a worse than expected Retail Trade figure offers more information (though ambiguity hand-in-hand) than does a strong figure because a strong figure seeks reinforcement from other indicators (such as the CPI and Consumer Confidence survey) and thus lags, whereas a less-than-expected figure immediately suggests that the EZ economy is most likely turning sour in one respect. Traders will often react immediately to this release, but much caution is exercised due to the wide array of implications this number carries with it. It is inadvisable to trade solely on this figure. German Retail Sales: German Retail Sales are very similar to the Retail Trade figure but differ in that they report an aggregate number of sales at retail outlets to provide for a better estimate of German private consumption. Like in Retail Trade, traders will often look to long the Euro should the figure be impressive, and short the European currency should it fall below expectations. Much like Retail Trade, traders will use the Retail Sales figure to better understand the direction of the economy in terms of other key economic releases. One of the few advantages the German Retail Sales has over Retail Trade is the time of release. Because the German figure is reported before the EZ number, traders can “jump the gun” should they wish, though acting in such a manner is not usually advisable in the Forex market. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product: The general rule of thumb when using GDP as a fundamental signal to trade is that an improved number means Euro positive whereas a lesser or unchanged figure translates into Euro stagnancy or bearishness. The Eurozone Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the progress of the Eurozone economy as a whole. The figure is very important to traders because it gauges the level of performance with which the Europeans are proceeding as well as harbingers and undermines the set of economic data that is expected to be reported from the region during a certain time period. Generally, the disclosure of a number that’s either expected or ahead of forecasts sets off bullish signals for the Euro; a number that falls below predictions invokes the Euro bears. GDP data for Germany, France, Italy, and the collective Eurozone region tend to be most closely followed. Current Account: The Current Account Deficit is probably the most comprehensive measure of international transactions for Europe as it is the measure of net exports, (total exports minus total imports). If the figure falls below expectations, slight movements against the Euro should be expected. But it is also important to keep in mind that a number that outperforms or either falls short of expectations is not necessarily going to get the traders to act hastily. The release of this number is monthly and tends to be in accord with the Trade Balance numbers that are generally reported a day or two in advance of the Current Account figure. The Current Account Deficit is usually interpreted in one way; a large negative number is damaging to the European currency. This is because the Current Account is a reflection of the net exports, and if it is negative, it shows that the Eurozone is importing more than it is exporting; a bad sign for industries at home and means that more Euros are going out of than coming into the region. However, the negativity of the number is not what traders pay attention to, but rather the change in it; the marginal change in the Current Account. The logic is very similar to that behind the GDP in that if a number comes in below expectations, it could hurt the Euro, whereas if it out performs forecasts, it could prove bullish for the European currency (despite its negativity). However, this number cannot be solely “judged by its cover” because the number says a lot more than meets the eye. For instance, a more negative figure does indeed signal a decrease in net exports, but at the same time could also serve to patron other economic releases, such as consumer spending. If the Europeans are spending a lot of money, and that money is leading them to buy things from abroad as their fiscal conditions are allowing them to do so, then a decrease in net exports doesn’t seem so “damaging” to the Eurozone economy; it could simply mean people are buying things exotic to them because they are better off. Generally though, the trend in industrialized western nations (Eurozone included) has been that a more negative Current Account is damaging to industries at home. So if the figure falls below expectations, at least slight movements against the Euro should be expected. Unemployment Data: Unemployment is a very significant indicator for Eurozone performance. It is reported in the beginning of every month and measures the percentage of the workforce that is currently out of a job but is actively seeking to be employed. Generally, traders understand slight improvements in the unemployment figure (as monthly figures generally vacillate by tenths of percentages) to be positive for the Eurozone economy and will buy Euros, whereas a no-change or increase in the unemployment numbers could lead to Euro stagnancy or dumping across the board. The figure is important because it signals how hard the Eurozone is actually working and helps to foreshadow consumer spending. High unemployment generally leads to lower consumer spending which can be bearish for the Eurozone economy as well as the Euro. The flip scenario is also true, weak Eurozone employment is bearish for the economy as well as the Euro. Generally speaking, unemployment raises concerns about the performance of firms, questioning whether businesses are either not hiring because they do not need more help, or are not hiring because they cannot afford to do so. If the latter is the case, then it could prove even more bearish for the Euro as it could be forecasting sour economic data regarding the productivity of businesses. German Unemployment: The German Unemployment figure is expressed in thousands and measures the change in unemployment in Germany; a positive figure says that more people are unemployed, thus leading to Euro selling, whereas a negative figure is indicative of decreasing unemployment and thus leads to Euro buying. Germany is important because it is the Eurozone’s largest economy. Any big or unexpected movements in this country have significant consequences for the Euro. This figure usually coincides with the Unemployment rate, but offers “greater detail” as it reports actual numbers, so that traders may have substance to trade off of if the rate itself remains unchanged. Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index measures the change in price for a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The higher the CPI, the more positive it is for the Euro, whereas the opposite is also true. The ECB has a 2% inflation target, so whenever consumer prices grow by more than 2%, the ECB becomes concerned and contemplates the need for rate hikes. If consumer prices grow by much less than 2%, the central bank has more flexibility to adjust monetary policy and interest rates. If the CPI has substantial gains, then the ECB would have the incentive to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check, thereby benefiting the Euro. However, if the CPI remains idle, or prices decrease, then even a rate cut is possible. CPI itself though consists of a few major components: one that includes energy prices, and one that includes food prices. These two constituents are very volatile and thus tend to sometimes “exaggerate” the CPI. Though they are undoubtedly considered when considering inflationary concerns, many times traders will also focus in on the “core CPI” to see how the change in prices in other sectors measured up to the changes in these two key areas. Either way, a sharp increase would generally prompt Euro buying, and a decrease would call for Euro dumping. German ZEW Survey: The German ZEW economic survey reflects the difference between the number of economic analysts that are optimistic and the number of economic analysts who are pessimistic about the German economy for the subsequent six months. Obviously, a positive figure bodes well for the Euro, while a negative number foreshadows Euro selling. The ZEW survey is important because firstly, it gauges the economic productivity of Germany, the Euro-Zone’s largest economy. Secondly, it forecasts the string of economic releases concerned with the different sectors of the economy. For instance, something like Factory Orders, Industrial Production, or even Retail Sales could be implicated (or at least their negative or positive changes) in the ZEW survey. Therefore, the survey is one of the key economic indicators that move the Euro during its time of release; the sentiment that results usually fuels the Euro strongly in one direction (at least in the short-term intra-day period). German IFO Survey: The Germany IFO economic survey is much like the ZEW economic survey in that it measures the sentiment, the confidence, in the German economy, but differs in that it includes the market-moving words of business executives. Usually, an improvement in the figure leads to Euro bullishness whereas a decrease or an unchanged number leads to either Euro stalemating or dumping. The IFO survey usually follows the ZEW and reflects sentiment along the same lines. However, should there exist a discrepancy between the ZEW and the IFO, traders tend to give the ZEW a bit more favoritism because it lacks the bias of business executives. Trading on either the ZEW or IFO survey isn’t usually very lucrative, unless both of these numbers are in line with each other and reinforce other key fundamental indicators as well. Industrial Production: The Industrial Production figure is a measure of the total industrial output of them Euro-Zone either on a monthly or yearly basis. The number is very significant as an improvement in the figure could lead the Euro to make significant gains whereas a decline or stagnant number could lead to weakness in the European currency. The reason Industrial Production is important is because it is a confirmation of its type of preceding economic releases (PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, etc.); the only key data following the IP figure being the Eurozone CPI estimate. This is why many times, by the time the Industrial Production data is due for release, traders will argue that the market has already “priced in” industrial productivity in the previous economic releases. Therefore, though large gains or losses in this figure could spark some immediate movement in the market, the market has more or less, factored in the expected Industrial Production data. German Industrial Production: German Industrial Production is a composite index of German Industrial Output that accounts for about 40% of GDP. This figure is very important because it measures the level of German Industrial Production; an improvement usually signals a “buy” in the Euro, whereas a decline in the figure constitutes a “sell” to many traders. The reason this particular IP report is more important is because not only does it measure the industrial output of Germany, the EZ’s largest economy, but also because of the fact that though it comes out late in the month, it is one of the first IP reports, and thus serves as a harbinger to the EZ IP report; if Germany saw decline, then the EZ IP report probably won’t be too bright, at least from the perspective of the trader. In a sense, the EZ IP continues to get priced in before its release. The German release has four significant components: manufacturing, which constitutes 82% of the figure, construction, which accounts for 9.5%, energy that has a 5.9% share, and mining which has the smallest share at 2.7%. Though all four components are important for Germany, movement in its largest constituent, manufacturing, usually carries the weight of the figure and has the attention of traders. German Factory Orders: German Factory Orders is an index of the volume of orders for manufactured products in Germany. This is a key figure for many traders, as an improvement in the number signals buying of the Euro, while a shortcoming signals a sell-off. The reason this reading is important is because Factory Orders not only reflect the strength of businesses but also help forecast other key economic releases such as retail sales. If orders are high, then businesses need more inventory, meaning that consumers are probably purchasing more. Traders key in on this figure, especially its components, before reacting towards the Euro. The four major constituents of German Factory Orders include intermediate goods (45.6%), capital goods (35.1%), consumer durables (11.8%), and consumer non-durables (7.4%). All four are very significant, but for different reasons. Traders will take the first two figures, the intermediate goods and capital goods, as an understanding of the strength of businesses within Germany. If there is an increase in these categories, then subsequent economic releases such as the PMI could also look very bright. The second two say much about consumer confidence and retail sales; if these two sectors are outperforming expectations, then the Euro could see significant gains. However, traders are usually wary when interpreting the German factory orders, because given some economic scenarios, gains in some sectors may very well offset losses in others whereas during certain time periods a different emphasis may be given to the different components. Therefore prudent traders will usually first consider the weight of each component before the release comes out and then act accordingly. Eurozone Labor Costs: The Eurozone Labor Costs (inclusive of both direct and indirect) figure reports the expenditures endured by employers in the EZ region in order to employ workers. Traders will generally understand higher costs to be negative for the EZ and consequently short the Euro, whereas decreasing costs may result in buying the Euro. However, it is advisable to understand the complexities involved in labor costs. On one hand, labor costs could be interpreted as a negative for businesses, but on the other hand they could be viewed as a positive stimulus for the economy. This is because firms may simply be hiring more qualified and thus more “expensive” individuals to increase specialization. If this is the case, then individuals within the economy may be better off, signaling that optimism is rising in the EZ; the Euro may see more gains. Also, there exists the possibility that while costs are rising, revenue is also rising, thus keeping total profit for businesses constant, and at the same time increasing payouts to workers, a signal that the EZ is expanding. In this case, the Euro may also be bought. However, understanding this complexity is again subject to the current economic scenario surrounding the EZ; if it is in a situation where expansionism is fertile or businesses have excess capital, then only can the increasing costs in labor justify a long position in the Euro. If that is not the case then increasing labor costs will result in Euro shorting.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
9
Windham Hotels & Resorts - 10:1 Long, Speculative News ResponseMy analysis of Windham Hotels & Resorts follows news of NYC's recent ban of AirBNB, a development which inspired me to discover which publicly traded hotel chain might be best positioned to benefit. Hopefully you will challenge my conclusion and/or my measurements with your tough questions, since this venue is meant to arouse the reverse-engineers and to provoke the thinkers to do what they do best, right? As always, I strive to render these ideas of mine so obviously that their explanation will require no words, but this 10:1 Long trade on the WH chart is highly contextual. Not even a Market Maker can move the price of ABNB as reliably as the State of New York. Although my trading strategy is built on innate Pattern Recognition and a hard-won sympathy for the Market Maker’s Business Model, my tactics - including the beauty of Tradingview and how it makes me look good - are based on identifying the opportunities within VOLUME, VOLATILITY and TREND EXHAUSTION. Generally speaking, what a Speculator does that an Investor or a Trader does not is specifically to take advantage of price inefficiencies caused by government interference (or corruption). A good example would be accumulating toilet paper and/or N95 Masks in 2020 and selling the stock in bulk at high markup before the window of opportunity finally closed. Only a Speculator does that! The details of the chart(s) speak for themselves, however behind the scenes ChatGPT and I determined that MAR, HLT, IHG, AC and WH were the hotel chains with the greatest number of rooms in NYC that might benefit from the AirBNB news. I was surprised to see that both MAR and HLT are at or near All-Time-Highs, but just as quickly ruled them out as candidates for major growth for exactly that reason. In short, without ChatGPT concluded that WH is the best candidate to benefit from what might become a growing trend, but is already law in NYC and will therefore have an effect on prices and practices. If this case interests you, then I invite you to compare the listed tickers and let me know if you agree about WH. Keen observers will see many details in this idea, but how many noticed the ABNB correlation coefficient histograph? If my trade thesis is correct, the polarity should invert, and the tickers will move in opposite directions more often, and for longer. I am preparing a video on prospecting for opportunities during the current Sector Rotation, and Windam Hotels & Resorts might become part of it. First, though, I have a few more ideas to upload as I update other key charts for the final Quarter of 2023. Until then, be liquid !!!
NYSE:WHLong
by TheLeadingIndicator
XXII Watch news POP to $6Timing markets is almost impossible, but I'm saying I have timing (from dowsing & intuition) for news in this on Monday... Could also be Tuesday, but it's coming. I was getting September 11th in meditations through the year starting on 3/12 with the message of "good news" for XXII. I have tons of timing around now into Monday for it. Meaning when I've asked advice my dowsing suggests getting a date and this date zone comes repeatedly. When I ask what's important about this time I get that there's news that sends prices up, there's multi-days of buying and it's an "extreme value buy". I would not hold much of it past 9/18, however, as I literally received instructions to do a partial sell on that date. The price target is almost $6. I also got $7... Actually, I think this is just the universe playing with me cuz I ask for the "cents" after $7 target & get .77. Like, maybe it's suggesting the lucky 777 from a slot machine. That actually could be a good thing. This stock owes me LOL. And a lot of other people. I'm ready!
NASDAQ:XXIILong
by JenRz
1
Important market price Dollar IndexThe Bullish Channel is continuously gaining strength from a strong pullback from the 99.581 zone after a support breakout. Now at the current level, the US Dollar Index at 102.894 is a very important level and a resistance level in H4. As per the channel, the US Dollar will fall to 102.440 to give respect to its Demand zone. With the channel formed and the major zone marked, the dollar is gaining strength day by day and will touch the 104.500 zone. As per the gold and major pairs, they will shortly show some bullish movement with short wave corrections in the US dollar price, but the us dollar will be in a bullish trend. Fundamental market movements will also have a positive impact on the dollar. The Key zone in US dollar from short reversal; 1- 102.894 2- 103.443 3- 103.714 Mark the US Dollar Index chart, and you will get some good pips in Gold and major currency pairs for short-term bullish movement. Note: Keep an eye on the US Dollar Economic Currency calendar for better understanding.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Bloom_Forex_Official
Weekly Forex Forecast – GOLD (XAU/USD)Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis Using the 1-day timeframe, it is imperative to note that the price of gold rebounded slightly from a significant level last Friday, yet it failed to hit its 50-day moving average of $1,945. It is crucial to keep a keen eye on this level as it now acts as a primary barrier. This area also serves as the previously broken support, which has the potential of becoming a resistance. Failure to surpass this level may result in the bears taking control of the market, causing a retest of support between $1,930 to $1925. Furthermore, in case the market weakens further, there is a possibility of prices reaching the next major support between 1906 and 1896. However, if XAU/USD manages to break through its 50-day SMA, it could create bullish momentum, leading to an attack on the $1954 area and then $1972. Therefore, it is crucial to closely monitor these trends.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by imxoxo
EURUSD IdeaWhoa, bro, we gotta keep our eyes on DXY, the dollar, as well! 🤙 If DXY is not in sync with the EUR/USD pair, it could mean the dollar might lose some strength, dude. And when that happens, there's a higher chance that EUR might catch a gnarly wave and head higher! But, like, no worries, man! We'll keep our cool and patiently wait for those economic pushes during the NY session. The market can be a wild ride, but we're all about catching those sick waves, and we'll ride them with style! So, let's stay optimistic, bro, and listen to what the market is telling us. If we spot some juicy volume spikes and DXY isn't keeping up, it might be a signal to hop on the ETH train and ride it like a super cool, carefree surfer carving up the waves! Peace, my friend, and let's ride the market like the true wave warriors we are! 🏄‍♂️🌊✌️
Long
by themarketknight
XPEV collaborating with VW = China EV on fire !XPEV is trending up. It is Chinese in the biggest EV market on the planet. No import duties. Low-interest rates on debt and consumer auto loans here as the government is doing the opposite as the US fed. Now the collaboration with VW which has legacy excellence in manufacturing with XPEV whose forte may be technology and autonomous driving innovation. On the 2H chart, the stock price jumped fast and hard on the news catalyst. The MACD launched signals over the histogram and the Volume Price Trend screamed higher. This all spells momentum. While there is a risk of a downfall reversal and drop as they saying goes make hay while the sun shines. There may be shadows of short selling squeezing here. Time will tell. For sure being late to the party is sometimes a waste of time. The real show will be watching XPEV/ VW competing with both NIO and TSLA in China. To the victor goes the spoils. Hold on as the ride will have some bumps.
NYSE:XPEVLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
gold before unemployments claims hi guys we always have unemployments claims every Thursday for news trader:D really good chance for taking swing we have great support at 1964 (also bottom of channel) and a good resistance at 2000 just look at the actual news ... if the actual is greater than forecast :SELL target= 1970 and then 1964 if bad for USD : BUY target: 1990 _ 2000 (fibo 61% daily) also we have a negative divergence in H1 , i prefer gold is going down today (opposite main direction) keep an eye on news... good luck
OANDA:XAUUSD
by aliatashi17
1
USDCAD(PRE-NEWS ANALYSIS)FX:USDCAD As it is shown on the chart that we have a three move impulsive same color candle movement to the upside which caused the creation of an order block and oversaw developments of a fair value gap, now with the upcoming news release bulls that missed out on the opportunity might have an opportunity to go long on a fair price. 1.Possible scenario one : would be that price goes on to mitigate the bullish order block and go to the upside 2.Possible scenario two : would be another long opportunity presented by a Bos to the upside and then a mitigation of that POI which caused the upwards move NEWS RELEASE : 14:30 SAST TOMORROW : 14:30 SAST
by jack_cheques
XAUUSD - IDEAS AND OVER VIEWS WHAT TO DO COMING WEEKHere is quick understanding about gold Gold had shown consolidation after it broke resistance near $1940 -$1935 range in recent market, which was due to the CPI report. The decrease in consumer inflation also resulted DXY prices to decrease, which led the gold to consolidate through out the day. As per the current situation the resistance level that is coming ahead is $1963, followed by $1972. There is a good chance to sell from $1972 for at least 8$-10$ target. If by any chance gold breaks $1972 we can then aim for 1984$. On the other side, if gold depletes, it is advisable to go for long positions from 1952$ or even 1940$, with the target to 1962$- 1972$. resistance point - 1962, 1972, 1984 support point - 1950 -1940 - 1920 What do you guys think ?
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by Subliminalroots
1
Can TLRY continue the momentum and is the news buyable ?TLRY jumped 10% in two trading days following the announcement of "gummie beer"" by its subsidary Sweetwater Brewing. Traders who trade TLRY seem impressed and that is what counts. Objectively, a gummie product containing alcohol seems to be a nonstarter given regulatory hurtles and then marketing of familiarity. No doubt users could titrate the desired effects as easily as liquid alcohol consumption. The chart of TLRY is not the best. Price has surged to the overvalued zone of between 2 and 3 deviations above a mean VWAP anchored last week. That is to say it may be overbought. The indicators are okay showing relative strength in two-time frames over 50 but under 80 while the MACD K/D lines are rising and parallel. I will add this to my watchlist for now. I am not yet ready to take a hit.
NASDAQ:TLRYLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 7/5Link to chart: www.tradingview.com After a low volume start of the week, we are running into news from 7/5-7/7. I am expecting to see some volatility due to the news releases we have this week and the start of July. We are currently sitting between zones on every timeframe, but most importantly, we did break out of the 4HR downtrend from June 16th. We are sitting near the beginning of that downtrend so I am interested to see if we can break upwards and out, or if we fail below and retest back. As always, staying open minded to what can happen next! EOW BULLS: A push to 6/16 highs of 15475 to 15524 (R1 Pivot on the 4HR). BEARS: A retest of 6/28 highs once more where price consolidated before at 15268 to 15228 to 15176 (P Pivot on the 4HR).
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/20We just recently broke from the 1HR downtrend line and looking to break to make newer highs. We have news releases this week for possible momentum to do just that. For this reason, I have bigger EOW targets to possibly reach. For intraday targets, targeting 0.5-1% of the NQ price. BULLS:I am interested in breaking the top of the trendline at 6/16/23 recent highs of 15475 and then the Daily supply zone above to be filled near 15.5k. BEARS: I like the 14981 area as we had previous bounces on the 4HR TF about 3x. If we can break through this area, I would like the 14879 zone to be filled. Link for chart: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
Daily Market Analysis - Thursday June 15, 2023Market Analysis: Global shares decline, dollar recovers as Fed pauses rate hikes; ECB and BOJ meetings awaited. Key events on the economic calendar include: New Zealand GDP (QoQ) for the first quarter. Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate announcement for June. Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision for June. US Core Retail Sales (MoM) data for May. US Initial Jobless Claims report. US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June. US Retail Sales (MoM) data for May. Eurozone ECB Press Conference. On Wednesday, global stock markets saw a decline, while the US dollar managed to regain some of its losses. This came after the US Federal Reserve, as expected, announced a pause in its interest rate hikes. However, the central bank also hinted at the possibility of raising rates by an additional 0.5% before the end of the year. During its recent two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve presented new economic projections that indicated a potential 0.5% increase in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. This projection was based on a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. US Fed funds rate The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for determining interest rates, unanimously stated in its policy statement that maintaining the current target interest rate range during this meeting would allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. While it was widely anticipated that the US Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes, the focus shifted to the communication surrounding potential future increases. In a surprising twist, the participants of the FOMC adopted a more hawkish stance. The median forecast for the end of 2023 regarding the Federal Funds rate was revised upward by 50 basis points, now ranging from 5.50% to 5.75%. SPX NASDAQ and DJI indices daily chart Following the announcement, the closing results of the stock market exhibited a mixed picture. The Dow Jones index concluded the day with a decline of over 230 points, while the S&P 500 index managed to secure a modest gain of 0.1%. The Nasdaq index, on the other hand, experienced a more significant increase of 0.4%. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite index was primarily driven by the positive performance of AI-related stocks, including Nvidia and AMD. In addition to the stock market movements, Wednesday started with Bitcoin surpassing the $26,000 milestone. However, it retraced shortly afterward and reached a 24-hour low of $25,791. Analysts are speculating that it may potentially drop further to $25,000. These sentiments are influenced by ongoing discussions on cryptocurrency regulation, which have been dominating the news recently. BTC/USD daily chart On the flip side, gold prices initially saw an uptick, reaching $1,959 per ounce during the session. However, as Asian traders kickstart their day, the price of gold has resumed its downward trajectory, edging closer to the $1,930 level. This downward movement can be attributed to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which has bolstered the United States Dollar (USD). The prevailing market sentiment currently favors the USD, consequently exerting downward pressure on the price of gold. XAU/USD daily chart The US dollar has demonstrated a decline against multiple currencies, resulting in a 0.32% drop in the DXY index. Among the currencies, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) experienced the most notable movement, surging by over one percent and reaching a three-week high at $0.6211. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP) registered more modest gains, each recording an increase of 0.39%. NZD/USD daily chart Despite the release of favorable exports and machinery orders data, the Japanese yen encountered a 0.9% decline, emerging as the primary loser in the Asian markets. Investor focus was predominantly directed towards the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting scheduled for Friday. It is widely expected that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to bolster domestic economic growth. This anticipated approach is anticipated to have a favorable influence on Japanese stocks. USD/JPY daily chart Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is expected to encounter further selling pressure as interest rates rise in other regions, diminishing its appeal. Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials, including the newly appointed Governor Kazuo Ueda, have expressed their intention to maintain the bank's yield curve control policy to provide support to the domestic economy. Furthermore, the diminished anticipation of Japanese government intervention in stabilizing currency markets has contributed to the yen's weakening. While officials have issued verbal warnings, no concrete actions have been taken thus far. Currently, traders are closely watching the upcoming monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for later in the day at 12:15 GMT. It is widely anticipated that the ECB will implement a 25 basis points increase in key rates. However, the Staff Economic Projections and the subsequent press conference by President Christine Lagarde will play a crucial role in shaping future policy direction. Market expectations indicate that interest rates will likely reach their peak in July, with speculation of an additional rate hike following June's increase, followed by a potential pause in September. If the ECB adopts a more hawkish stance by implementing a rate hike, it is expected to exert additional selling pressure on the price of gold.
by FOREXN1
1
Gold 4hr TF setup for CPI When considering CPI, a lower figure is preferred when buying assets such as gold, EUR, EURUSD, Cable, and indices. The weaker the CPI, the better it is for risk assets, especially those associated with hedging against the dollar. For instance, if there is a year-on-year 4.7% inflation and a month-on-month 0.2%, it would be ideal to buy indices and sell dollars because the data has outperformed. If the CPI is lower than expected, buying gold and selling dollars is a good option. Gold, GBP, EUR, and JPY are some of the assets that may be purchased in such a scenario. Indices such as S&P may move 30-40 points, while Wall Street may see a few hundred points move. Typically, any CPI figure before 4.8 or lower is considered a good data point. It is crucial to analyze the CPI figure excluding food and energy. Food and energy prices have rapidly increased in the last two years, making them an important outlier. However, we are starting to see food and energy prices normalize, and they have been coming down steadily over the last three to four months. If the CPI comes out at 5%, and food is at 5.5%, it is not a good number. The ideal situation would be to see continued decreases for six months. If there is a slowdown in one or two months, that is a problem. Currently, the Fed is still raising rates, which can aid in stabilizing prices. CPI inflation and rates are positively correlated.
TVC:GOLD
by ChartStrategist
EUR/USD: 17/05. Good input for sale OANDA:EURUSD I expect EUR to consolidate in the 1.0850/1.0950 range. EUR traded between 1.0855 and 1.0910 before closing slightly lower at 1.0865 (-0.010%). The fundamental tone has softened somewhat and EUR is likely to drop lower today, but any decline could be part of a lower range of 1.0839/1.0895. In other words, a clear break below 1.0845 is unlikely. Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from Monday (May 15, spot at 1.0855) is still valid. As highlighted, the outlook for EUR remains negative and the level to watch is at 1.0805. On the other hand, a breach of 1.0945 (no change to 'strong resistance') would indicate that the EUR weakness that began mid-week is over. SELL EURUSD zone1.08600 - 1.08800 Stoploss: 1.09100 Take Profit 1: 1.08100 Take Profit 2: 1.07500
Short
by DNA_TradingFX
PPI News Release tomorrow. What is it? The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM release is tomorrow (14:30). In this idea I will talk about what it is and how we can make money of this as traders :) What the # is PPI? The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the price change on the manufacturing side. In contrast to CPI, Consumer Price Index, which measures what consumers pay for their stuff! So, the PPI covers the price changes of the sellers and that is why it is widely considered as one of the most important indicators for inflation. How does PPI influence the dollar? When the PPI rises, this sends a message to the fed that inflation may be taking place so they should raise interest rates to 'fight' this inflation. The interest rates hikes generally lead to higher value of the dollar. Rising PPI = signal of inflation = policy of higher interest rates = more attractive to investors = dollar is more in demand = increase in value Same things goes for the other side: Low PPI = low indicator for inflation = message to fed to ease up with the rate hikes = lower interest rate = Generally bearish for the dollar. So always buy the dollar when PPI rises? NO! You should also take a look at the monetary policy of the counter currencies countries. Because lower interest rates in USA generally DON'T mean a decrease in the dollar value for USD/JPY if the interest rates are even MORE lowered in japan. Conclusion To be honest, the best way to 'make' money in the long term during major news events is to not trade at all. Because of the major volatility spike you can lose money very quickly and there is also have very high risk of slippage on your trades. Trading big news events is like gambling and that's not what we do. Maybe you experience a little bit of FOMO when you see the beautiful big moves that you 'could have gotten into' but it WILL pay off in the long run to avoid trading during major news events. I give daily ideas about market analysis, trading psychology and trading in general. ❤️ If you appreciate my work, please like, comment, follow and send to someone you think should read this. ❤️ If you don't then don't! :) @yorick7878 I wish you all good trading!
by yorick7878