FDX: Overreaction?FedEx Corporation
Short Term - We look to Buy at 161.03 (stop at 148.79)
The company gave a bleak outlook for profits and plunged in the premarket by 20% .We are trading at oversold extremes. A move lower faces tough support and we remain cautious on downside potential. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. A higher correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 206.12 and 215.00
Resistance: 200.00 / 240.00 / 320.00
Support: 160.00 / 130.00 / 100.00
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Newstrading
The News Just Serves To ConfuseI have been a trader for a very long time, so listen as I spit some facts.
News is worse than a distraction, it ACTIVELY inhibits you from making good decisions.
You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION! I will say this again at the end.
I am 100% certain that I only started to be successful after I stopped DIRECTIONAL trading based on news. Of course, I know the broad mass of what's going on in the markets and which news events may have an effect. I haven't stopped listening to and reading the news, but I HAVE started to see it all differently.
You can see from the chart that all the recent "Shock News" has no real impact unless you are a day trader. rate decision, statements, unemployment, blah blah....
I am not saying that news is not important, I'm saying that you need to translate it and to be aware of why it is written. This probably sounds like a weird thing to say, but hear me out.
Do a memory check with me.
When was the last time that the news was all positive about bitcoin?
Answer: At the top and on the way down, when the big boys were selling it to naïve retail (like you, probably).
Now we are at the bottom, all the news is negative on BTC. I wonder why? (HINT: They want you to panic out so they can buy.)
There are three possible reasons for this.
1. The writers are dumb. They are part of the retail crowd themselves and are therefore subject to the same impulses, fears and hopes. They get carried away when things are pumping, and drop into despair when the markets plunge.
2. The whole industry is driven by the big firms, who obviously want to make as much money as they can. Retail traders are, on average, so bad at trading that brokers don't even put their trades into the market, preferring to risk taking the other side themselves. 75% of retail traders lose money. 90% of retail traders will lose 90% of their first trading account in the first 90 days. If I were a broker I would take the other side of those odds, thanks. All I have to do now is make people trade as much as possible. I get commission, and I probably get their stake as well. How to make people trade as much as possible? PUMP OUT NEWS THAT TRIGGERS TRADING.
3. A combination of 1 and 2. The financial industry, from megabanks through to news services, gurus and brokers, is set up to excite people about trading as much as possible. There is constant pressure to provide reasons why oil rose 5% or SP500 dropped 8% etc etc, and even on slow weeks the sheer amount of stories that are published is mind-blowing. The writers are unlikely to be traders themselves, and they just pump out stories based on what happened yesterday and what MIGHT happen today. It is all designed as a massive call to action that is constant, and traders just like you open (and close) positions based on "market analyst" pieces written by economists and professional analysts employed by the brokers.
Are you beginning to see how it all fits together?
The industry LOVES a day trader most of all, because they lose their stake the fastest, so day trading is promoted as exciting. After all, it IS exciting. Trading gives you a buzz. It's addictive, possibly more so than gambling. It is gambling after all, only slightly different, and if you trade like a gambler, you lose in the end.
So, how do I look at news?
1. If trading short-timeframe, I am aware of figures that are due this week, and avoid holding a position coming up to an announcement, and for a while afterwards.
2. If trading medium- to long-term, I remember that the non-farm payrolls may move the market a few percent sometimes, but when you zoom out you can barely see the effect. As a result most of my trading is swing trading.
3. I regard it as a reverse indicator if anything. It never ceases to amaze me when I am thinking about taking a long in, say, Gold, and then an email hits my inbox containing a bearish Gold story. I don't think I am becoming QAnon but I do think these stories can easily be planted by the big players. What journalist doesn't want to write a story after they interview some "master of the universe" trader from GS or JPM or wherever. Or maybe the boss says "write a Gold story today", so they call up their contact who trades it for a bank. Same effect. The banks are in buy mode, and they need retail to sell it to them.
If this sounds like I think the whole thing is a colossal rigged casino, then I am getting my point across. News is just a part of the effort to separate you from your cash, but it's doing a great job.
So, what to do?
1. Trade on Price Action only.
2. Be aware of news in case it affects a trade you may place or one that you have on,
3. Understand that nearly all news is designed to make you panic in or out of a trade, and regard it VERY cynically. It can be hard to remain calm in the face of a negative headline, but that's what a good pro trader will do. Currently I am long BTC, despite huge negative headlines.
Once again, repeat after me:
You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION!
⛔️EURUSD important UPDATE before big news release!!Please see related ideas for better context, everything else is in the video. But in short - we will have a lot of manipulative moves during the next two days. See why in the video.
👋 Disclaimer: All ideas here are for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Your trades are yours only, and your complete responsibility. I'm not particularly bullish or bearish on any given instrument, and I don't have a "fixed" bias. I'm just following the strategy I learned from my teachers and that's all. We can have completely different views on the market and still both make profits. Everything here should be treated as a simulation.
👉I believe a trader doesn't need to predict anything, so the "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live. He's right only when he executes the system, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups.
🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀
💬Send your comments and questions below, and share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
EURUSD short live ⤵️Alert has presented on EURUSD.
Short reversal trade identified and entered.
Working the 15M timeframe.
Trade details can be found on the chart in red label.
Trade box is tracking the trade.
Trade is currently running in blue but we'll see where we end up.
Jackson Hole Symposium starts today so this trade will be finished today be it a TP or a SL as expect some market volatility.
Want to know how I identified this trade you know what to do.
Thanks for looking
Darren🙌
STEP 2 to MASTER TRADING: what to do with the NEWS. NEWS BRING TERRIBLE TRADING CONDITIONS
During release, spread is all over the place, in addition you can easily miss the fill. So actually worst time you can enter a position is on a release itself, hoping price will rise or fall. But usually, price will make massive moves up and down, liquidating hopeful "news traders" before going in either of direction. So next time when you will regret you were not involved in the news move, just remember that you would not have a good entry point anyway.
PRICE CAN GAP BELOW YOUR STOPLOSS
Another really important thing to keep in mind is that very often during red news, price can momentarily and significantly gap, and now instead of your breakeven or usual -1RR, you'll have -2 or -3RR, and what's worse - you'll have a big drawdown in your emotional capital.
ILLUSION OF UNDERSTANDING
Sometimes beginners, and even advanced traders, fall into this illusion. Someone reads 5 articles about a specific news type, and now begins to think they understand how the news will effect the market.
In reality, each trading instrument is effected by hunderds of factors, and anyone who wants to understand them, should spend months, even years with that one instrument, learning literally everything about it and what effects it. Everything else is just gambling or being naive.
EFFECT HAPPENS BEFORE THE RELEASE
If you've being familiar with smart money or institutional trading, ideas of Wyckoff, you'll know that institutions position themselves long time before news release, during accumulations and distributions. Market structure gets established long before actual realease, and what news do are just producement of sporadic moves, grabs of liquidity and easy manipulations. But only 0.01% of news actually change pre-established structure and starts a new trend, big picture doesn't change because of news. What actually starts a move and a trend are accumulations and distributions, and news really can be a part of it, but only a small part.
SO WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE NEWS?
1. Check red news releases during your day. Don't enter 15-30 min. before and after the news.
2. If you're already in a trade, and price came relatively close to your entry, it's better to close out the position now, because remember that price can gap below your stoploss.
3. If you're positioned in profit significantly away from the price, leave the position open.
So to recap everything above, you need to trade YOUR SYSTEM, YOUR EDGE - for me it's structure, SnD and confirmations - but also we need to acknoledge the short term chaotic news effect, and use our knowledge to manage risk and that's all.
Hope this post give you better understanding what should you do in order to become a successful trader.
I will be grateful if you support this post by smashing the BOOST button and sharing it with other traders. Thank you!
Dima
EUR/GBP: Bearish news in the EuroEuro has a bad news about the prospect sanction what US firm and that will impact in the Euro currencies.
So, in this analysis, Euro/Great Britain Pound it's look into this bearish continuation that we could to entry to shorting Euro to down.
In H4 it's look bearish!!!
And this it's the Daily analysisis outlook what Euro it's droping and we could to find down the support 0.8290 Pound.
So guys, I entry in short position in the 0.8355 Pound and SL to 0.8384 Pound (24 pips) and target to 0.8290 Pound (69 pips).
I hope that this analysis suppor;t you
DXY Lower TF Rejection of Daily Resistance Level As we approach FOMC price is printing rejection candles off our daily zone.
This could all be liquidity for a move higher later during FOMC
Best to stay out of the market for the time being and possible scalp with your bias
if FOMC confirms your bias.
How To Trade During the News?It's critical for forex traders to pay attention to big economic data releases, government statements, and geopolitical events. Why? Because this information generally represents a country's economic strength and can predict a currency's future direction. Trading the news might be tough and not fit for everyone, but the resulting volatility can provide a plethora of trading chances. You know what they say: with the big volatility, comes the big responsibility (or something like that, right? #InvestroyJoke), so beware of wide spreads and slippages.
We must first determine whether news items are even worth trading before building a "Trade the News" method. "Which news releases should I trade?" is a question you want to be able to answer. The big event risks that have a significant influence on the major currencies should be familiarized by forex traders. Remember, we're trading the news because it has the potential to raise volatility in the near term, thus we'd want to trade just the news that has the most market-moving potential for the currency market. The news that tends to influence market action and create volatility generally consists of the following:
Modifications in central bank policy (sometimes known as "monetary policy").
Changes in government policy (sometimes known as "fiscal policy").
Economic data releases have had unexpected results.
Random tweets from a particular international leader who enjoys emblazoning his name on skyscrapers (not anymore), or a billionaire working on spacexploration.
Pretty much everything marked red in the economic calendar (especially related to US).
There is no single news trading approach. As traders assess the conclusion versus market expectations, the price tends to surge in one way or have a subdued reaction to the news. With this knowledge, there are two basic ways to exchange news:
a) Having a bias in one way
b) Having an asymmetrical bias
When you have a directional bias, you expect the market to move in one way when the news is disclosed. When looking for a trading opportunity in a certain direction, it's helpful to understand what aspects of news stories lead the market to move.
The non-directional bias technique is a more popular news trading strategy. This strategy ignores any directional bias and merely relies on the fact that a major news event will cause a significant movement. It makes no difference either way the FX market swings. We simply want to be present when it happens! When you have a directional bias, you expect the price to go in a specific way, and you've already placed your orders. When news is released, it is always beneficial to grasp the underlying reasons why the market swings in a particular manner. You don't care which way pricing goes when you have a non-directional bias. All you want to do is get activated. Straddle trades are a type of non-directional bias setup.
Conclusion: In addition to the factors mentioned above, you should be willing to learn along the way by figuring out: which news are stronger than others, what is the difference that needs to be between forecast vs actual for volatility to skyrocket and which news you should never even try trading. All these things come from trading and trading only (moreover, bad news, market changes every year).
Personal note: The way we do it most of the time is… we trade them way before release, as this is how market picks up the direction.
PINE: Short (signaled by 3 indicators)Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. is a real estate company, which owns and operates a portfolio of single-tenant commercial properties. The company was founded on August 19, 2019 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, FL.
Recent News (nontechnical analysis):
Dec2: Alpin Sells $24.5 Million towers;
Dec 3: Falling asset prices
Moving Average, MACD, and RSI indicate resistance has been reached a price decrease + volume decrease is on the way in the coming days.
GBPJPY ShortGBP Net short !!
From the news all data is negative !! GBP price usually follows the news later.
02:00 GBP U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Oct) 3.2% 5.0% 7.2%
02:00 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (Oct) -1.8% 0.2% 1.3%
02:00 GBP GDP (MoM) 0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
02:00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3) 4.6% 6.6% 5.3%
02:00 GBP Index of Services 1.1% 1.2% 1.6%
02:00 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 1.4% 2.2% 2.9%
02:00 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) -0.6% 0.1% -0.4%
02:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct) 1.3% 1.7% 2.8%
02:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Understanding News ManipulationIt is crucial to understand the price action prior to a high impact news event.
Analysing the range to the left beforehand can help you determine what move is likely to come next.
In this example, we saw the price was driven down by the bears to stop out buyers, only to reverse immediately to the upside moments after the news had been released.
By studying and acquiring knowledge like this, you can predict market moves that are likely to come with fundamentals.
Find the liquidity and trade it, or be the liquidity.
Merck & Co: Covid news linked breakout - BullishMerck & Co., Inc. develops pharmaceutical and vaccine products. It also offers healthcare solutions and vaccines addressing animal health. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Kenilworth, NJ.
Average Analyst Rating : Moderate Buy : Price target : $92
Hedge Fund Trend: ▼ Hedge Funds Decreased Holdings by 8.8M Shares Last Quarter.
Insider Activity : No Meaningful change last quarter
News Sentiment last week: Very Bullish
Technicals : Positive
Merck and Ridgeback Therapeutics Inc.’s experimental oral antiviral treatment is being heralded as a pill with major upside potential in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Malaysia is in talks to procure an experimental antiviral pill developed by Merck & Co for COVID-19 treatment, the health minister said on Saturday.
Fundamental news brought sharp falls for the vaccine cos that have earlier made huge gains, the likes of PFEs and MRNA and others and MRK moved up sharply, breaking the range it was moving. Since its a news related move, more likely a new range would be created and previous resistance maybe difficult of breach.
Most of the stocks that had fallen because of Covid lockdowns showed glimpses of finding investor interest as Airlines, Casinos & Gamings, Crusie Liners all made substantial moves.
From a technical standpoint, its a Bollinger band blast on Daily charts. The candle formation can be tricky, but the weekly candle looks very strong Watch out for price action on Monday, dip buying should be a good strategy. I think another rotation in its way in terms of sector moves, ride this rally and watch out the Covid news regularly.
Long $COIN$COIN - Coinbase Trailing 3 Mths
After todays announcement of Coinbase becoming the official crypto platform of the NBA, WNBA, NBA 2K League, & USA Basketball, the 1st Bitcoin Futures ETF launching yesterday from ProShares Trust, along with the recent up-trend in major Cryptocurrencies, I have a bullish outlook on $COIN for a long-term strategy.
Should believe in News or Technical analysis? by DENT DEFIBINANCE:DENTUSDT
4H trend chart
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Influence of News
You must have the same experience...News coming everywhere day and night.
It might be just a "news" for a child, salaried man or a retired man who is having a tea leisurely right now.
However, we are all in a amazing, astonishing and terrifying market, depended on what the news is!
Reminiscing Elon's twitter, Trump's mouth or a barrel of crude oil, all of them sharply affected stocks and cryptocurrency you hold.
These phenomenon occur every day, every month, and every year, even over the next decades.
Recently, DENT said DEFI is coming!
Obviously, price rallied rapidly by this news and accumulated high volume on 9/28
But pullback was followed soon.
Here, during the bumpy ride, you will choose to believe News and hold DENT or sell it from panic?
So, What would you do while seeing These News in future?
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is a method to classify, conclude the pattern from candlestick, based on Big Data and Statistic.
Like chance, it'd not provide you 100% to take profit, but could indicate the direction and trend for you to see clearly.
It's all-embracing, including chart patterns, price trends, moving averages/momentum...etc.
Although there are many methods and theories, what you need is the easy way and the one you like. (we can discuss TA deeper in future)
As DENT trend chart, obvious Trend line/Darvas box/Resistance zone are easily showing through analyses.
It appropriately provides you reference and direction to decide your trading strategies.
So, we could trust technical analysis totally?
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Conclusion
From my perspective, study and identify of News is the way to know a new commodity or tech or cryptocurrency.
Once you're interested in them, try to realize what it really is and how it processes.
While you wanna trade these product after study, technical analysis is the best tool to assist you.
You could even major on it to identify, judge and evaluate the price.
Because what you see on the chart and the real result you eventually gain are the truth and real, no matter what comes from Elon's twitter or Any key of leaders' post/mouths.
Trading is a reflection of yourself, sometimes you need to take a step back to see more.
Learn more daily and Be ready for any opportunities daily.
Have a nice trading day guys!