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Another hawkish RBA hike, but will Jerome Powell turn AUD lower?Summary of the RBA’s February 2023 statement: • The RBA hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35% • Underlying inflation was above expectations at 6.9% • Strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures • CPI is expected to decline this year due to global factors and slower growth in domestic demand • Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case • The labour market remains very tight • Wages growth is expected to continue picking up due to the tight labour market and higher inflation • The board will continue to pay close attention to labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead • Further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead The RBA hiked the overnight cash rate by 25bp to 3.35% - its highest level since September 2012 – and warned of further increases in the months ahead. The two key words here are ‘increases’ and ‘months’, as it implies more than one hike over the coming months. And with rates at 3.35% it means the market pricing and consensus among economists for a terminal rate of 3.6% is not correct. Given that the employment situation remains robust, inflation is higher than they expected and ‘strong domestic demand is adding to inflationary pressures’, we have several green lights for a hike in March and perhaps in May. Perhaps we’re closer to the elusive pause they teased us with last year, but I see no immediate threat of one in that statement. And whilst the RBA expect CPI to decline as global factors and growth in domestic demands slows, what is going to happen if they do not slow quickly enough? Yep, more hikes. For now, a March hike seems like a done deal and I live in hope they hint at a pause, but I will not hang my hat on that given the data overall and strong levels of inflation. AUD/USD 1-hour chart: The Aussie bounce around 1% after the rate decision, but it is debatable as to whether it can retain its strength if Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish message overnight. The Fed’s rate remains above the RBA’s, with a higher expected terminal rate. AUD/USD found support around the 50-day EMA and has since spiked higher, but bears may want to seek evidence of weakness around 0.6900 as it houses the monthly pivot point and broken trendline. Of course, should Powell fail to deliver the hawkish message, then it leaves AUD (and other FX majors) more wriggle room to unwind some of their post-NFP losses.
Short
by CityIndex
How the ES has reacted to EIA Petroleum Status ReportsEIA Petroleum Status Reports are considered high-impact news, yet how much do they impact ES futures? In the 30 minutes after it gets reported at 10:30am ET, here's how ES has reacted the last 5 times: Jan 4: 14.75-point range, closing up 0.21% after 30 minutes Dec 28: 11.5-point range, closing up 0.25% after 30 minutes Dec 21: 12-point range, closing up 0.12% after 30 minutes Dec 14: 8.75-point range, closing up 0.20% after 30 minutes Dec 7: 13.75-point range, closing up 0.09% after 30 minutes Plenty of range there to make money... and plenty of range to get whipsawed out for a loss. so be careful. Unless you have a specific strategy to trade the EIA Petroleum Status Report news, or you're in for a longer hold, consider sitting it out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingTruthseeker
#GBPJPY near 4h timeframe resistive area one againlook where price is one more time at an area where rejected clearly twice before plus it's a structural point too ( it use to be support but changed to resistance ) if you look at the left side of the chart. this cluster of resistance add to the importance of the area. But the thing is matter most is not to rush into a trade as we have CPI news today and depends on what the numbers going to be it can cause price to break the resistance to the upside or to reject from. If you want to have more comprehensive idea about what to expect of news are going to be released today and tomorrow I would recommend you to read the idea linked to this article. But in summery, if CPI comes out equal or lower the prediction it would be good JPY and we can expect the downside move from GBPJPY .
Short
by mohemati
impact of two important following news on DXYTwo important factors that been driving Dollar prices in last several month as we all know is Federal Funds Rate and Inflation data like CPI. In this week we have both of them coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, now we want to see how it can affect the market. Price usually tend to be at important resistive or supportive areas at the time of important news hit the market and as we can see now price is at supporting area and at the Daily low which probably will remain here until the news hit the market so we can expect of low volatility movement on USD and other major crosses, But what will happen when the news releases? As we know CPI balance is curving to downside and shows that inflation is cooling down and as we see the prediction of tomorrow CPI news we can see that the market expect this trend to continue. Now here is the tricky part, if CPI data put out like prediction or lower than the prediction this means that fed has the inflation under control which makes trader to believe that federal reserve would not need to raise prices very aggressively like before and as a result we may see a risk on environment in the market which can lead Dollar prices to come lower, but on the other hand SPX, TLT, EUR,JPY and also commodity currencies like AUD,NZD to take benefit from the situation. But if CPI data comes out higher than expectation then we can argue that federal reserve do not have inflation under control so it needs to continue hiking prices like before and this situation may lead to higher prices for Dollar and lower prices for all the other assets that we covered above. Also if the second scenario take place tomorrow we can expect USYIELD to continue going higher which have negative effect on US treasury bond and very bad effect on SPX index. Put CPI analysis apart the other important news that can shake prices real hard is federal reserve which going to hit the market on Wednesday. On that time we can see that what exactly is in the mind of federal reserve and how they are going to impact the economy. In overall, if they raise rate same or below the expectation its going to be very good for risky assets since it shows that we are getting close to end of rate hiking cycle but if federal reserve going for raising rate higher than expectation then it will have a very good impact on Dollar but bad impact on risky assets.
TVC:DXYEducation
by mohemati
GBP / USD Short Idea Bearish view here. Due to the Political failures and cost of living crisis, i only see one direction for the GBP going into the Inflation Reports on the 19th October . I expect Inflation to rise and continue to place pressure on the Pound further as seen in the past few months. I can't see the price entering any lower than 1.06700 as the buying opportunity and retracement will be too strong, but i expect to see price dropping to one of two levels. - (1.06700 or 1.09560) Previous Political news also has shown that the UK is the only major country to not have recovered from Covid and going into the winter months; accompanied with the Energy crisis and overseas conflicts, the USD simply has a stronger outlook for the next few weeks. - Note to never risk more than 1-3% of your account on any given trade. - Stop loss at 210 Pips to give room for market noise. - Take Profit at 625 Pips or 339. Please form your own research but I hope this can give some advice or fuel for ideas to be generated.
Short
by wozencroftkyle
2
FDX: Overreaction?FedEx Corporation Short Term - We look to Buy at 161.03 (stop at 148.79) The company gave a bleak outlook for profits and plunged in the premarket by 20% .We are trading at oversold extremes. A move lower faces tough support and we remain cautious on downside potential. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. A higher correction is expected. Our profit targets will be 206.12 and 215.00 Resistance: 200.00 / 240.00 / 320.00 Support: 160.00 / 130.00 / 100.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:FDXLong
by VantageMarkets
The News Just Serves To ConfuseI have been a trader for a very long time, so listen as I spit some facts. News is worse than a distraction, it ACTIVELY inhibits you from making good decisions. You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION! I will say this again at the end. I am 100% certain that I only started to be successful after I stopped DIRECTIONAL trading based on news. Of course, I know the broad mass of what's going on in the markets and which news events may have an effect. I haven't stopped listening to and reading the news, but I HAVE started to see it all differently. You can see from the chart that all the recent "Shock News" has no real impact unless you are a day trader. rate decision, statements, unemployment, blah blah.... I am not saying that news is not important, I'm saying that you need to translate it and to be aware of why it is written. This probably sounds like a weird thing to say, but hear me out. Do a memory check with me. When was the last time that the news was all positive about bitcoin? Answer: At the top and on the way down, when the big boys were selling it to naïve retail (like you, probably). Now we are at the bottom, all the news is negative on BTC. I wonder why? (HINT: They want you to panic out so they can buy.) There are three possible reasons for this. 1. The writers are dumb. They are part of the retail crowd themselves and are therefore subject to the same impulses, fears and hopes. They get carried away when things are pumping, and drop into despair when the markets plunge. 2. The whole industry is driven by the big firms, who obviously want to make as much money as they can. Retail traders are, on average, so bad at trading that brokers don't even put their trades into the market, preferring to risk taking the other side themselves. 75% of retail traders lose money. 90% of retail traders will lose 90% of their first trading account in the first 90 days. If I were a broker I would take the other side of those odds, thanks. All I have to do now is make people trade as much as possible. I get commission, and I probably get their stake as well. How to make people trade as much as possible? PUMP OUT NEWS THAT TRIGGERS TRADING. 3. A combination of 1 and 2. The financial industry, from megabanks through to news services, gurus and brokers, is set up to excite people about trading as much as possible. There is constant pressure to provide reasons why oil rose 5% or SP500 dropped 8% etc etc, and even on slow weeks the sheer amount of stories that are published is mind-blowing. The writers are unlikely to be traders themselves, and they just pump out stories based on what happened yesterday and what MIGHT happen today. It is all designed as a massive call to action that is constant, and traders just like you open (and close) positions based on "market analyst" pieces written by economists and professional analysts employed by the brokers. Are you beginning to see how it all fits together? The industry LOVES a day trader most of all, because they lose their stake the fastest, so day trading is promoted as exciting. After all, it IS exciting. Trading gives you a buzz. It's addictive, possibly more so than gambling. It is gambling after all, only slightly different, and if you trade like a gambler, you lose in the end. So, how do I look at news? 1. If trading short-timeframe, I am aware of figures that are due this week, and avoid holding a position coming up to an announcement, and for a while afterwards. 2. If trading medium- to long-term, I remember that the non-farm payrolls may move the market a few percent sometimes, but when you zoom out you can barely see the effect. As a result most of my trading is swing trading. 3. I regard it as a reverse indicator if anything. It never ceases to amaze me when I am thinking about taking a long in, say, Gold, and then an email hits my inbox containing a bearish Gold story. I don't think I am becoming QAnon but I do think these stories can easily be planted by the big players. What journalist doesn't want to write a story after they interview some "master of the universe" trader from GS or JPM or wherever. Or maybe the boss says "write a Gold story today", so they call up their contact who trades it for a bank. Same effect. The banks are in buy mode, and they need retail to sell it to them. If this sounds like I think the whole thing is a colossal rigged casino, then I am getting my point across. News is just a part of the effort to separate you from your cash, but it's doing a great job. So, what to do? 1. Trade on Price Action only. 2. Be aware of news in case it affects a trade you may place or one that you have on, 3. Understand that nearly all news is designed to make you panic in or out of a trade, and regard it VERY cynically. It can be hard to remain calm in the face of a negative headline, but that's what a good pro trader will do. Currently I am long BTC, despite huge negative headlines. Once again, repeat after me: You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION!
UEducation
by Paul_Varcoe
120
⛔️EURUSD important UPDATE before big news release!!Please see related ideas for better context, everything else is in the video. But in short - we will have a lot of manipulative moves during the next two days. See why in the video. 👋 Disclaimer: All ideas here are for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Your trades are yours only, and your complete responsibility. I'm not particularly bullish or bearish on any given instrument, and I don't have a "fixed" bias. I'm just following the strategy I learned from my teachers and that's all. We can have completely different views on the market and still both make profits. Everything here should be treated as a simulation. 👉I believe a trader doesn't need to predict anything, so the "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live. He's right only when he executes the system, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, and share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
by Yelli_trades
10
EURUSD short live ⤵️Alert has presented on EURUSD. Short reversal trade identified and entered. Working the 15M timeframe. Trade details can be found on the chart in red label. Trade box is tracking the trade. Trade is currently running in blue but we'll see where we end up. Jackson Hole Symposium starts today so this trade will be finished today be it a TP or a SL as expect some market volatility. Want to know how I identified this trade you know what to do. Thanks for looking Darren🙌
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
STEP 2 to MASTER TRADING: what to do with the NEWS. NEWS BRING TERRIBLE TRADING CONDITIONS During release, spread is all over the place, in addition you can easily miss the fill. So actually worst time you can enter a position is on a release itself, hoping price will rise or fall. But usually, price will make massive moves up and down, liquidating hopeful "news traders" before going in either of direction. So next time when you will regret you were not involved in the news move, just remember that you would not have a good entry point anyway. PRICE CAN GAP BELOW YOUR STOPLOSS Another really important thing to keep in mind is that very often during red news, price can momentarily and significantly gap, and now instead of your breakeven or usual -1RR, you'll have -2 or -3RR, and what's worse - you'll have a big drawdown in your emotional capital. ILLUSION OF UNDERSTANDING Sometimes beginners, and even advanced traders, fall into this illusion. Someone reads 5 articles about a specific news type, and now begins to think they understand how the news will effect the market. In reality, each trading instrument is effected by hunderds of factors, and anyone who wants to understand them, should spend months, even years with that one instrument, learning literally everything about it and what effects it. Everything else is just gambling or being naive. EFFECT HAPPENS BEFORE THE RELEASE If you've being familiar with smart money or institutional trading, ideas of Wyckoff, you'll know that institutions position themselves long time before news release, during accumulations and distributions. Market structure gets established long before actual realease, and what news do are just producement of sporadic moves, grabs of liquidity and easy manipulations. But only 0.01% of news actually change pre-established structure and starts a new trend, big picture doesn't change because of news. What actually starts a move and a trend are accumulations and distributions, and news really can be a part of it, but only a small part. SO WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE NEWS? 1. Check red news releases during your day. Don't enter 15-30 min. before and after the news. 2. If you're already in a trade, and price came relatively close to your entry, it's better to close out the position now, because remember that price can gap below your stoploss. 3. If you're positioned in profit significantly away from the price, leave the position open. So to recap everything above, you need to trade YOUR SYSTEM, YOUR EDGE - for me it's structure, SnD and confirmations - but also we need to acknoledge the short term chaotic news effect, and use our knowledge to manage risk and that's all. Hope this post give you better understanding what should you do in order to become a successful trader. I will be grateful if you support this post by smashing the BOOST button and sharing it with other traders. Thank you! Dima
BINANCE:BNBUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
EUR/GBP: Bearish news in the EuroEuro has a bad news about the prospect sanction what US firm and that will impact in the Euro currencies. So, in this analysis, Euro/Great Britain Pound it's look into this bearish continuation that we could to entry to shorting Euro to down. In H4 it's look bearish!!! And this it's the Daily analysisis outlook what Euro it's droping and we could to find down the support 0.8290 Pound. So guys, I entry in short position in the 0.8355 Pound and SL to 0.8384 Pound (24 pips) and target to 0.8290 Pound (69 pips). I hope that this analysis suppor;t you
Short
by harisonhbn9718
3
How To Trade During the News?It's critical for forex traders to pay attention to big economic data releases, government statements, and geopolitical events. Why? Because this information generally represents a country's economic strength and can predict a currency's future direction. Trading the news might be tough and not fit for everyone, but the resulting volatility can provide a plethora of trading chances. You know what they say: with the big volatility, comes the big responsibility (or something like that, right? #InvestroyJoke), so beware of wide spreads and slippages. We must first determine whether news items are even worth trading before building a "Trade the News" method. "Which news releases should I trade?" is a question you want to be able to answer. The big event risks that have a significant influence on the major currencies should be familiarized by forex traders. Remember, we're trading the news because it has the potential to raise volatility in the near term, thus we'd want to trade just the news that has the most market-moving potential for the currency market. The news that tends to influence market action and create volatility generally consists of the following: Modifications in central bank policy (sometimes known as "monetary policy"). Changes in government policy (sometimes known as "fiscal policy"). Economic data releases have had unexpected results. Random tweets from a particular international leader who enjoys emblazoning his name on skyscrapers (not anymore), or a billionaire working on spacexploration. Pretty much everything marked red in the economic calendar (especially related to US). There is no single news trading approach. As traders assess the conclusion versus market expectations, the price tends to surge in one way or have a subdued reaction to the news. With this knowledge, there are two basic ways to exchange news: a) Having a bias in one way b) Having an asymmetrical bias When you have a directional bias, you expect the market to move in one way when the news is disclosed. When looking for a trading opportunity in a certain direction, it's helpful to understand what aspects of news stories lead the market to move. The non-directional bias technique is a more popular news trading strategy. This strategy ignores any directional bias and merely relies on the fact that a major news event will cause a significant movement. It makes no difference either way the FX market swings. We simply want to be present when it happens! When you have a directional bias, you expect the price to go in a specific way, and you've already placed your orders. When news is released, it is always beneficial to grasp the underlying reasons why the market swings in a particular manner. You don't care which way pricing goes when you have a non-directional bias. All you want to do is get activated. Straddle trades are a type of non-directional bias setup. Conclusion: In addition to the factors mentioned above, you should be willing to learn along the way by figuring out: which news are stronger than others, what is the difference that needs to be between forecast vs actual for volatility to skyrocket and which news you should never even try trading. All these things come from trading and trading only (moreover, bad news, market changes every year). Personal note: The way we do it most of the time is… we trade them way before release, as this is how market picks up the direction.
Education
by Investroy
15
PINE: Short (signaled by 3 indicators)Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. is a real estate company, which owns and operates a portfolio of single-tenant commercial properties. The company was founded on August 19, 2019 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, FL. Recent News (nontechnical analysis): Dec2: Alpin Sells $24.5 Million towers; Dec 3: Falling asset prices Moving Average, MACD, and RSI indicate resistance has been reached a price decrease + volume decrease is on the way in the coming days.
NYSE:PINEShort
by lydiascherr777