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Week in a Glance: OPEC +, NFP, Pandemic and stimulusThe past week turned out to be quite intense in fundamental terms. At the same time, the general trends and sentiments in the financial markets have not changed: the level of greed continues to go off scale, as generates excessive the demand for risky assets. The main event of the week, perhaps, can be considered the OPEC + meeting. Despite the preliminary negotiations, on Monday the OPEC + participants were not ready for constructive actions and the meeting was postponed until Thursday. The results are as follows: from January production will increase by 0.5 million b / d. Further actions will be agreed monthly. Is this a victory for the bulls? Well, the very fact that oil production will increase somehow does not look like a triumph of buyers. Let us also remind that the markets were expecting a decision to extend the current volume of production cuts by 3-6 months. And while things could have been worse (with a 1.9mn b / d increase in production since January 1), we think the OPEC + results is an excellent reason for oil sales. Another important event of the week was the publication of official statistics on the US labor market. Figures from ADP on Wednesday warned that NFP may well be worse than expected. And so it happened: the data turned out to be 2 times worse than forecasted and once again reminded that the pandemic has a completely material economic price. In this regard, we note that the past week again turned out to be a record one in terms of the number of new cases in the world and in the United States, in particular. Around the world, the numbers were close to 700K per day, and in the US - to 240K. Still markets have not been confused with these figures and, in general, sentiments have not changed so far. However, we believe that the markets have deviated too much from the normal, which means that a correction is just around the corner. So, we will continue to sell in the stock markets. At the same time, we do not exclude that this week the optimistic mood stays unchanged. In the US, there seems to be some progress on stimulus issue. And although the sum announced is 2 times less than the previous minimum figure for the Democrats, even $900 billion may be enough to keep the demand for risky assets going off scale. Plus news from vaccine manufacturers can help maintain the proper degree of optimism. After all, it is this week that the US FDA is due to approve the Pfizer vaccine.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
2
OPEC+ results, Burry vs Musk, NFP aheadThe long-suffering OPEC + meeting finally finished yesterday. As a reminder, according to the plan, it was supposed to end on Tuesday with a decision to extend the current volume of production cuts by 3-6 months. But in fact, after the failure of the first day, it was postponed to Thursday. The results are as follows: from January, production will increase by 0.5 mln b / d. Further actions will be agreed monthly. That is, the decision whether to increase production in February by another 0.5 million will be made at the OPEC + meeting in January. Despite some growth in oil, we consider the results of the OPEC + meeting at least inconsistent with the basic expectations of the markets, which means that sales are more than relevant. Among other events of the day yesterday, it is worth noting unexpectedly good figures for jobless claims in the USA. That is, they are still several times higher than the pre-pandemic levels, but the very fact of a certain positive trend in the current environment is surprising. Especially on the eve of the publication of official statistics on the US labor market today. Yesterday's data on PMI indices in the services sector in Europe confirmed the thesis, which we announced earlier this week: factories and plants this time were not closed, respectively, the manufacturing component suffered a little. But the service sector absorbed most damage from the restrictions (Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone as a whole - all indices are below 50 or even 40). So the US labor market may well surprise and surprise unpleasantly. Yesterday we wrote about Musk's letter of despair. And the reaction of the financial markets predators has come. Michael Burry, best known for the Big Short, as the man who invented credit default swaps tweeted that he had become a seller in Tesla shares and advised Musk to issue additional shares while prices are so ridiculous, because then it might be too late.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
6
Vaccination in the UK, weak ADPs and wise Musk's fearThe main news yesterday were traditionally related to the pandemic and vaccines. And no less traditionally they were rather ambiguous. On the one hand, the UK is the first in the world to approve the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Vaccinations will begin next week after the country receives 800,000 doses from Pfizer's manufacturing center in Belgium. The country has ordered enough doses of the vaccine to immunize 20 million of its 67 million population. As a reminder, the US FDA is due to meet on December 10 to discuss whether to recommend an emergency authorization for the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine, and the European Medicines Agency said it could grant an emergency vaccine approval by December 29. Currently, 22.5 million doses of Pfizer vaccine and 18 million doses of Moderna vaccine will be produced in December 2020. But this pot of honey was not without tar. The pandemic in the world does not even think to fade away. More than 200K new cases of infection were recorded in the United States yesterday, the number of hospitalizations is breaking records and the medical system is on the verge of collapse. Yesterday's ADP data came out much worse than forecasted (307K against the forecasted 410K) and confirmed fears that the US economic recovery has slowed sharply after a new outbreak of the pandemic. Considering that the main US labor market data will be published tomorrow, the reason for pessimism is more than serious. It is highly likely that today's jobless claims data will confirm these concerns. From local news, it is worth noting Musk's half-panic letter to his employees, in which he warned that Tesla shares would be instantly crushed, like a soufflé under a sledgehammer, if they did not find ways to reduce costs. Essentially, Musk affirmed that Tesla's profitability was and remains an illusion that requires more and more efforts to maintain over time. Why is Musk panicking right now? If you look at what happens to Nikola shares (they lost about 50% in the last week) or Nio (in just three days, the scale of losses reached 30%), it becomes clear why it is now, because Tesla, by and large, is next in line.
NYSE:NIOShort
by Trade24Fx
2
OPEC + failure, OECD forecasts and ADP data aheadSo far, the main event of the week is the current failure of the OPEC + meeting. Instead of the expected decision to extend the current voluntary production cuts in the oil market for another 3-6 months, we have confusion. So far it has not been possible to agree on anything. The UAE insists on a fairly simple thought: what is the point of talking about some terms of the deal if the deal is still not respected. And it is clearly not easy to object to this reasonable question in the framework of OPEC +. But hope dies last and the solution to the problem has been postponed until Thursday. Otherwise, the world continued to live on dreams of vaccines, imagining how soon everything will return to normal. We have already noted that reality will at best begin to match current expectations in the third quarter of 2021. Because here and now, over half a million people in the world are infected every day, and most of Europe is shrouded in a network of full or partial lockdowns. All this cannot but harm the economy. As a result, yesterday the OECD updated its own forecasts for the pace of economic development in the world and noted that the resumption of the coronavirus pandemic has dramatically weakened the global economic recovery. Downgraded global growth forecast for 2021 to 4.2% from 5% in September. And according to the S&P Global, the shock due to the coronavirus will more than double the default rate of companies in the US and Europe over the next 9 months (for example, in Europe, the default rate will rise from 3.8% to 8.5%). But who is interested in the opinion of some OECD or S&P Global? It is much more interesting to show historical highs in the stock market or in cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, we continue to live in a paradigm where objective reality is no less important than subjective perception, and therefore today we will monitor US employment data from ADP. Recall that the main block of statistics on the US labor market will be published on Friday. It is unlikely, but still it can remind dreamers of what the economy is in fact here and now.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
1
Moderna, BitCoin records, China, OPEC and IndiaFollowing Pfizer, another pharmaceutical company (Moderna) is filing for US vaccine registration. At the same time, the company noted that its vaccine is 100% effective in severe disease. United Airlines, meanwhile, transported the first shipment of Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine from Brussels to Chicago O'Hare International Airport. Against the background of this information, buyers of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular experienced another heightened optimism. This resulted in new all-time highs for Bitcoin. Despite the apparent madness of what is happening in general, it fits into the general outline of the behavior of financial markets in recent times. China, as usual, added some optimism to the markets yesterday, when reported an increase in manufacturing activity in November, which became the ninth month of growth in a row. We are talking about the purchasing managers index in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for November (52.1 against the forecast of 51.5). India tried to return the optimists to the ground. Its economy at the end of the third quarter (GDP decreased by 7.5%) confidently entered the stage of a technical recession. On Monday, the UK and the European Union warned each other that time is running out for a Brexit trade deal. The funniest (or saddest) thing is that one of the key stumbling blocks - fishing - provided only 0.03% of the British economy in 2019. That is, Britain may fail the deal with the price of a trillion in trade turnover because of 0.03% of GDP. Since this is beyond common sense, we continue to believe that the sides will reach an agreement, which means that the pound will receive its injection of positive and a reason for growth, albeit short-term. The OPEC meeting was unsuccessful yesterday and should continue today. Although some reports have postponed the talks until Thursday, as key players continue to disagree on how much oil they should pump amid weak demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. Sources said that Russia has offered OPEC + to start increasing production by 0.5 million barrels per day every month since January. Obviously, against the background of such information, oil can only be sold.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: AstraZeneca, risky assets and NPP aheadLast week has traditionally started with the vaccine news. This time, AstraZeneca reported effectiveness of 70%, but for a half dose, that is, potentially by increasing the dose, it is possible to bring the effectiveness to 90% +. Why is AstraZeneca important? The fact is that this particular vaccine claims to be the most massive in the world. With a price of $ 4-5 per dose, as well as ease of distribution (you can store in an ordinary refrigerator), the AstraZeneca vaccine has the largest market capacity - about 4 billion doses worldwide. That is why the financial markets perceived the information from AstraZeneca very positively. As a result, a massive exodus from safe haven assets to risky assets began. Bitcoin almost reached 20K, Musk became the richest person on the planet after Bezos, stock markets rushed to new all-time highs, greed level reached 92 out of 100 (CNN's Fear and Greed Index). In our opinion, markets have traditionally passed off wishful thinking and tomorrow (which may not exist) as today. After some skepticism about the results from AstraZeneca surfaced, the company announced additional global testing. In general, it is worth recalling that the massive use of vaccines will not begin until the third quarter of 2021, which means that, given the planned seasonality of the pandemic, you should not expect a radical solution to the problem before summer. So, the last week's gain is extremely unstable. Actually, losses in the cryptocurrency market on Thursday from 15% to 30% for various tokens confirm this. That is why our position is unchanged: we sell risky assets, as well as oil, and buy gold. The coming week may be decisive for the oil market. OPEC + meets on Monday-Tuesday. Markets have already fully incorporated into the current price the fact that from January the voluntary production cuts will not change and instead of the planned 5.8 mln b/d it will remain at 7.7 mln b/d. The point is that the fact is not yet there. In addition, statistics on the US labor market will be published at the end of the week. Given that November turned out to be an exceptionally pandemic month, there is every reason to expect weak data, which may remind financial markets that the present is not as cloudless as it seems to them.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Thanksgiving Day in the cryptocurrency marketIn yesterday's review, we warned that a thin market in the face of a significant number of bubbles in financial markets could provoke spikes in volatility or even flash crashes. If you look at the results of Thursday for the cryptocurrency market, it seems that we were not so far from the truth. Ripple lost about 25% (!) during a day, Bitcoin and Ether about 15%. And while other bubbles are still with us, ranging from Tesla and Nio to the US stock market in general, it is quite possible that the markets are starting to feel shortage of "fools" with all the ensuing bubbles. Among other news, it is worth noting the extension of restrictive measures by Germany until December 20 against the background of a record number of cases, which exceeded 30K per day. Germany did not tighten the measures, but the experience of the same France shows that with a sufficient level of severity it takes only 3 weeks to take the situation under control. Consumer confidence, meanwhile, is declining in both France and Germany. Exxon Moblie is gearing up for tough times. They revised their own estimates of oil prices in the next decades by 11% -17%. The company expects the damage from the pandemic to persist for much of the next decade. Britain and the EU continue to negotiate a trade agreement. So far, traditionally, it has been unsuccessful, exchanging mutual threats. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Thursday that the EU is ready for the possibility of Britain leaving the bloc without a new trade agreement. Britain in turn said that they did not need a deal "at any cost". Nevertheless, according to the participants in the negotiation process, its end is close. According to one information about the success of the negotiations will be announced at the weekend, according to the other - next week. Let us recall our trading plan for this case. We wait for positive news, being long in the pound, after that we wait 1 or 2 days to work out the news, fix the profit on the long position and simultaneously open the short one.
NYSE:NIOShort
by Trade24Fx
ECB, US data and Thanksgiving DayToday is a holiday in the United States (Thanksgiving Day). So, the markets will be “thin”. Low liquidity is a great opportunity for those looking to crash the market. Moreover, there is something to collapse: from the cryptocurrency market bubble to the US stock market. And in this case, even a formal reason for the start of the movement is not needed. Just a light kick on days like this is enough to trigger the flash crash mechanisms. The ECB tried to remind markets yesterday that the reality is not as joyful and cloudless as it seems this week. The Central Bank of Europe has warned that European banks may face a wave of defaults on loans, and in order to somehow protect themselves from this, banks are advised to increase reserves. In addition, the ECB said that the some assets may collapse at any moment. Yesterday's data from the US (which had a double doze due to the weekend today) also tried to bring the markets back to the ground. Primary unemployment benefits came out much worse than forecasted and higher than the previous value. That is, the outbreak of a pandemic in the United States, despite the absence of a full-fledged lockdown, does not go unnoticed for the economy. US GDP for the third quarter was left unchanged. France, meanwhile, said it would start collecting a tax on digital services. So digital giants like Amazon, Facebook and others can get their wallets ready. According to official data, oil stocks in the United States decreased by 0.75 million, which, due to the insignificance of the number, should not be interpreted as a signal of a deficite in the oil market. The fate of the oil itself, apparently, will be decided at the OPEC + meeting November 30 - December 1.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Bubbles are growing, Musk is richer than GatesThe start of the week was again marked by a sharp jump in the level of greed in the financial markets. Just take a look at the CNN Fear and Greed Index to be convinced (the index is in “extreme greed” zone). Naturally, this provoked a massive exodus from safe-haven assets (gold alone lost over $ 75 per ounce in a couple of days). Well, if it has disappeared somewhere, it must arrive somewhere. The markets do not even try to be selective, to give preference to relatively undervalued assets. On the contrary, the most overvalued and overbought assets are bought. Bitcoin approached 20K, Tesla - 550 (as a result, Musk overtook Bill Gates and became the second richest man in the world). And nobody worries that even less than a year ago, they did not give 4K for the same Bitcoin, and $ 75 for Tesla (price adjusted for the August split). In general, there is nothing criminal about the rise in asset prices. But what has changed in the world of cryptocurrencies? Were they allowed everywhere, and became full-fledged and commonly recognized payment instruments? Or maybe Bitcoin was introduced as a payment instrument in Google or Facebook? Maybe Testa has increased production tenfold and become a world leader in car production? The answers are too obvious to be voiced. But the saddest thing is that no one asks these questions. People buy assets simply on the basis of the principle: growth was yesterday and it will be today and it does not matter why it happens, the main thing is: it happens. The outcome of this approach is obvious. It has been clear since the 17th century, when the Dutch were no less active in buying tulip onions than Bitcoin is now. But nowadays very few people study history. In the US, meanwhile, Trump, though reluctant, admits defeat and prepares to leave the White House. Biden continues to form his team. The appointment of former Fed chief Jannette Yellen as Treasury Secretary seems like a good idea. Today a large set of statistics from the US will be published. The fact is that tomorrow in the States the official holiday (Thanksgiving Day). So, the data is published for two days at once. It includes revised figures for the US GDP, as well as data on durable goods orders and jobless claims, personal income and new home sales.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Another Groundhog Monday, JPMorgan Chase predicts collapseFor the last three weeks on Mondays, we've seen variations of the same thing. Two weeks ago on Monday, Pfizer announced 90% + effectiveness of its vaccine. Moderna said last week on Monday that their vaccine is 94.5% effective. And yesterday the British AstraZeneca made its contribution to the Monday vaccine race news. Their vaccine, however, turned out to be weaker - just over 70%. But on the other hand, you can add to the dose and increase the effect. Plus, the vaccine from the British is much cheaper and as simple as possible in terms of storage and transportation (it can be stored in usual refrigerator). If the Pfizer vaccine costs forty dollars (for two doses needed for the effect), then an injection from AstraZeneca will cost 4-5 dollars. As usual, the markets reacted extremely positively to this information: safe-haven assets were losing value (dollar, gold, yen fell in price, and the yield on US Treasury bonds grew). If you believe the analogies, then today the attention of the markets will switch to numbers for sick and lockdowns, and we will see reverse price processes. For example, Canada's largest city, Toronto, with a population of 3 million, is in lockdown for 28 days. Moreover, the latest data on business activity in the Eurozone (for November) drop below 50, that is, business activity in the service sector is declining (for the first time in the last 5 months). Against this backdrop, France and the UK announced a gradual easing of restrictions because of significant progress in the fight against the pandemic. JPMorgan Chase predicts a local collapse of the global stock market. They base their predictions on simple calculations: traditional investment funds tend to maintain a 60 to 40 distribution between stocks and bonds in their portfolios. But due to the sharp rise in stock prices, the proportion has been distorted recently and stocks dominate. If, by the end of the year, investment funds decide to return to the basic ratio of 60 to 40, they will have to sell off shares for about 300 billion. It is unlikely that the market will be able to “eat” such a volume without consequences. There was a local turmoil on the oil market yesterday related to the information of a military strike by Yemeni Houthi rebels on an oil storage and distribution center in Saudi Arabia. And although the information has not yet been officially confirmed, all this is very similar to the events of a year ago, albeit on a much smaller scale.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: between vaccines and lockdownsIn the last couple of weeks, the markets have been torn between two topics: news from the vaccine race and the epidemiological situation in the world and the United States. Moderna said its vaccine is 94.5% effective, and final test results for the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc. showed it is 95% effective. At the same time, the FDA (US regulator) will consider the issue of the Pfizer vaccine for emergency use on December 10. Recall in this light that Pfizer's revenues from vaccine sales in 2021 may grow by $ 10+ billion, so the company's shares are a good candidate for purchases. Despite such a clear positive, stock markets were unable to continue their growth. The fact is that it will take months before the large-scale vaccination begins. In addition, the current situation with the pandemic in the world and in the United States, in particular, is extremely threatening. Over the past two weeks, the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in the United States jumped by almost 50% and reached a record value of about 80,000. Against this background, local authorities continued to tighten measures to restrict social activity. So, this week we will continue to look for sell opportunities in the US stock market. An interesting event of the past week was the decision of the Central Bank of Turkey to raise the rate at once by 4.75%. Now it has reached 15%, which can naturally lead to the formation of a carry trade in pairs with the Turkish Lira. It makes sense to think about mid-term purchases of Turkish Lira. Another news of the week was the information that Tesla will join the S&P 500 on December 21. Quite naturally ($ 11.2 trillion Index funds would have to include Tesla shares in their portfolios) Tesla shares jumped, keep on blowing an already huge price bubble. Given that at the end of the week the question of stimulus in the US resurrected again, and the UK and the EU were again unable to complete negotiations (this time due to the coronavirus disease of one of the EU negotiating group members), stimulus in the US and Brexit that could become top topics of the current week.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
Surprise from Turkey, carry trade and pandemic chroniclesPerhaps the main event of yesterday was the rate hike by the Turkish Central Bank. This is not the key Central Bank of the world. However, it is not typical that the Central Bank from a G20 raises the rate by 475 (!) basis points. As a result, the rate became 15% and this is already more than a serious reason for the emergence of a carry trade in pairs with the Turkish lira. And if Turkey does not scare away investors, then the lira has every chance of forming an upward trend in the foreseeable future. Especially when you consider that China this week placed government securities at a negative rate. This has never happened before for emerging markets to be placed in the minus. 2020 has once again confirmed its uniqueness. So, Turkey looks like an even stronger contrast against this background. Considering that there is too much money now (just take a look at the bubbles in the stock markets, the US housing market, and the cryptocurrency market), the temptation to get instead of minus 0.15% plus 15% might be too great to resist. But in general, the pandemic continues to attract the attention of the markets. Optimists are watching the vaccine race (the AstraZeneca Plc vaccine has sparked strong immune responses in the elderly, and Moderna Inc. begins production of its vaccine in Europe later this month). Pessimists - for the news of lockdowns and figures on the number of cases, hospitalized and deaths. The number of hospitalizations due to Covid-19 in the United States is record in 28 states. California has declared a curfew. At the same time, schools were closed in New York, and New York subway is operating at 25% of its capacity and is going to be reduced by 9,000 people, which will lead to a reduction in transit services by 40-50%. Yesterday's data on jobless claims in the US came out rather mixed. Continuous claims are still decreasing, but the initial ones stopped the positive trend and began to grow. In general, these data don't seem like a reason for joy.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Pfizer again, plus some Boeing and BrexitAfter the US elections, the focus of the markets shifted to the pandemic and news from the world of vaccines. So the news of the day again was the information about the final results of the COVID-19 vaccine trial from Pfizer Inc. Recall, according to preliminary data, the effectiveness of the vaccine was 90%. Since then, Moderna has announced that their vaccine is 94.5% effective. But according to the final results from Pfizer, the effectiveness of their vaccine is 95%. Most importantly, since testing is complete, Pfizer is about to apply for a US emergency acceptance. According to Pfizer, the vaccine committee meeting will take place in December. That is, about a month remains to wait until an officially approved and effective vaccine appears on the shelves. But do not forget that it will be months (rather quarters), before its widespread use begins and a turning point in the pandemic takes place. US regulators intend to allow the Boeing 737 MAX to fly again after a nearly two-year pause. As a reminder, this aircraft was Boeing's most financially successful until two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019. But given the scale of the crisis in the airline industry and its rather bleak prospects, the news failed to trigger a steady rise in Boeing's stock. Note that just a few days ago Bill Gates said that according to his forecasts, after the pandemic, the number of business trips will decrease by more than 50%. Before the pandemic, it was business travel that accounted for half (!) of US airlines' revenues. It is reported that France has agreed that its fishing rights in UK waters will be limited after the end of the transition period on 31 December. Note what exactly is one of the most serious obstacles on the way to a Brexit deal.
NYSE:PFELong
by Trade24Fx
Cryptocurrency News - Who's accurate and Who's not? - BTCUSDHello Friends in Trading I've been playing with an idea, but it's going to take days to complete. Lots of hours and work will have to go into it, so first I want to determine if there is a demand for my idea. I want to do a thorough analysis of some of the top names that always pop up in the news bar on the side. Often you'll have one article saying " BITCOIN IS GOING UP" and the very next one will be saying "BITCOIN IS GOING DOWN". Which one is more accurate based on past performance and past predictions? This is what I would like to determine. I will do an analysis if I can get 15 and more likes. This will show me that there is a demand, and then it will be worth the time it will take. Please share in the comment section if you have specific sites (mainstream) you would like for me to look at. {and please, don't take this idea, I am claiming it as MINE so don't now go and steal it (coughcoughtoptraders...)} Yours in Crypto, Ev
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BlockTechEv
7
Tesla in kings, US data and local lockdownsOn December 21 Tesla wil be included in the SP500 index. The decision is rather strange, but, apparently, deliberate (in September, the index committee had already refused to include the company in the index, but now they have decided to do this). It's strange because it creates purely technical difficulties for the index committee - Tesla, with its capitalization near $ 400 billion, creating an imbalance in the index. It's strange because now index funds and ETF funds (with total assets up to $ 11 trillion) will have to buy Tesla shares even if they really don't want to do it. It's strange because Tesla is a classic price bubble that is about to burst and what will happen to the entire index because of this we don't even want to think about (nothing good for sure). In general, it is not clear why SP did this, but they did. Meanwhile, the head of the investment company Hercules Investments, James MacDonald, said he expects the S&P 500 to decline by 20% in the near term. In principle, just the collapse of the Tesla bubble may be enough for this. Yesterday's data on retail sales in the United States was not very encouraging. They rose 0.3% in October (after rising 1.6% in September). It is obvious that the situation will deteriorate further. Since the executive branch in the United States is partially paralyzed due to the results of the elections in the United States (Biden cannot do anything yet, and Trump no longer wants to), one cannot count on a nationwide lockdown. But local authorities are increasingly tightening measures in a desperate attempt to stem the rise in the number of cases. Against the backdrop of such news, the optimism caused by the news from Moderna has somewhat faded. Accordingly, the growth of stock markets stopped, as well as oil prices growth. But it is too early to talk about any kind of reversal. However, we note that the fundamental background for this is more than favorable. US Oil stocks according to API increased by 4+ mln barrels. This is not something gamechanging. But still, additional reason to sell Oil from the current prices.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Trade24Fx
New injections of optimism and the deal of the centuryLike last week, this one started with news from vaccine developers. And if last Monday it was Pfizer with its 90% efficiency, then yesterday Moderna was the generator of optimism. Its vaccine is 94% effective. But at the same time, unlike the Pfizer vaccine, which must be stored at -80 degrees, the product from Modern can be stored in usual home refrigerators. This means that it is easier and more convenient to use it. The data from Japan and China added optimism as well. Japanese GDP in the third quarter grew by 21.4% (forecasts was 18.9%). China reported growth in industrial production and retail sales (even compared with the same period last year). Another reason for the uplifting mood was the news that China and 14 countries of the Asia-Pacific region signed on Sunday the largest trade agreement in the world (covering almost a third of the world's population and global gross domestic product). That is, the markets have a feeling that things are not so bad now, but in the long term everything will be great for sure. We continue to consider this position to be at least premature. Europe in lockdown (full or partial). As a result, for example, the freeway operator Vinci reported on Friday that traffic in Europe dropped 48% in the first full week of November. And with China, everything is far from so simple. In the corporate sector, defaults on debts are growing. Even state-owned companies, which were previously considered practically risk-free, are under threat. As a result, problem loans in the banking sector rose to a record 2.84 trillion yuan ($ 429 billion) as of September 30, according to the Chinese banking regulator. So, our main positions are unchanged: we sell on the stock markets, buy precious metals, sell oil and look for points to buy the dollar.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
3
Week in a Glance: Pfizer and the pandemic, Brexit and oilThe event of the past week was Pfizer's announcement that their vaccine is 90% effective. Many took this information as a victory in the fight against the pandemic. As a result, Monday became one of the most active trading days of the year, during which there was a massive exodus from safe-haven assets and an equally massive inflow of capital into risky assets. But then it was reported that CEO Albert Burla sold most of his shares right after the vaccine efficacy news was announced on Monday (with a daily high of around $ 41.99 on Monday, he managed to sell 132,508 shares at $ 41.94 a share). His actions, naturally, raised suspicions that everything is not so clear with the vaccine and Pfizer's prospects for selling it in the amount of 1.3 billion doses (!) in 2021 might be far from reality. Pandemic statistics contributed to a decrease in optimism in financial markets. The total number of cases in the world has reached 54 million, and the daily increase is now 650K +, of which over 180K is given only by the United States. Such statistics for the United States naturally intensifies conversations about the need for a nationwide lockdown in the United States as the only way to bring the situation under control. So, it’s too early to relax and buy risky assets. That is why this week we will be buying gold and silver, selling on stock markets, selling oil. And some words about the oil market. Despite the growth of the asset, associated with expectations that OPEC + in January will not increase production by 2 million b / d, the overall fundamental background remains extremely gloomy. OPEC and IEA monthly reports indicated that the second wave of the pandemic will inevitably hit the demand in the oil market. At the same time, the sharp increase in production in Libya speaks in favor of the fact that oil sales are the only logical trade plan in the current conditions. Formally, the coming week promises to be rather calm, which, however, may change at any moment. In theory, trade negotiations between the UK and the EU should end this week. Besides the pandemic, lockdowns will remain in focus. The earnings season in the US is almost over, but is still in progress.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
USA closes, Europe suffers, IEA revises We have already written several times that the pandemic situation in the United States is becoming less and less controllable every day (160K+ new cases per day already). Currently, there is only one way to stop the worsening of an already dire situation - lockdown. The idea for a nationwide lockdown in the United States was voiced by Dr. Michael Osterholm, President-elect Joe Biden's coronavirus advisor. But while Biden has no authority, these are more intentions than part of the reality. In reality, a wave of local lockdowns and tightening measures in the USA began. For example, in New York, gatherings are limited to 10 people, bars and restaurants must close every evening at 10:00 pm. San Francisco has again banned indoor dining starting next Sunday, suspended high school reopening, and limited gyms and movie theaters to 25 percent of capacity. Note that these are half measures, which means they will not be able to quickly change the situation for the better. At the same time, Europe shows that lockdowns work. For example, in France, the number of new cases since the introduction of the lockdown has almost halved. Thursday was not the best day for the pound. UK GDP data for the third quarter came out slightly worse than experts' expectations (15.5% against expectations of 15.8% growth). In addition, information about another change in the deadline came from the Brexit fields. Let us remind you that this week the parties were supposed to complete negotiations and sign a trade agreement. But in fact, everything is postponed at least to the next week. As expected, growth in the oil market stopped. Following the rather pessimistic OPEC forecast for the oil market, the IEA published even gloomier estimates. The agency now expects demand to fall by 8.8 million bpd in 2020 (versus 8.4 million bpd in last month's report). Separately, the report noted that the vaccine is unlikely to significantly increase oil demand until the second half of 2021. Plus, the weekly data on US oil stocks from the EIA unexpectedly showed a fairly significant increase.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Risky sentiments amid pandemic records, OPEC reportIn the first 10 days of November, 1 million (!) people were infected with COVID-19 in the United States. As a result, the number of patients with coronavirus in US hospitals has exceeded 60,000. It would seem that it’s time for investors to think about a possible second lockdown in the United States after Europe. Instead, they are running out of safe haven assets (US Treasury yields are at their highest levels since spring). Equity markets are correspondingly storming historic highs. And if the last couple of days investors have tried to bypass the shares of high-tech companies, then yesterday it came to them. Recall that after the news from Pfizer, investors decided that the world will soon return to normal, which means that preference should be given to value stocks (which are now relatively undervalued), rather than growth stocks (now significantly overvalued). As a result, at the start of the week, value companies around the world as a whole demonstrated the maximum growth in the entire history of observations relative to growth companies. Russia, following Pfizer, announced a 90% + effectiveness of its vaccine. This statement looked somewhat ridiculous on the information that in the Altai Territory three doctors vaccinated with the Sputnik V vaccine contracted the coronavirus. On the oil market, all attention was focused yesterday on the monthly OPEC report. The cartel has lowered its own forecast for oil demand in 2020 (by 300 thousand barrels per day - to 90.01 million bpd). In general, the rise in oil prices in the past couple of weeks is a reason for oil sales. Today promises to be quite busy in terms of macroeconomic statistics. UK Q3 GDP, Eurozone Industrial Production in September and traditional weekly US jobless claims statistics, as well as official US oil stocks data.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
2
EU attacks again, cannabis market and RepublicansAfter the euphoria that reigned in the financial markets related to the news from Pfizer (according to data analysed by Reuters, nearly $2 trillion changing hands on Monday), the markets calmed down somewhat on Tuesday. Both new pandemic records and the statement by Republicans that they support Trump's desire to challenge the election results returned to reality. Markets took this as a hint that the Republicans are unlikely to become much more compliant after the elections, and the Democratic edition of the stimulus bill will not be able to pass in a short time. Weak data from ZEW on business sentiments in the Eurozone and Germany, as well as EU threats to impose new taxes on digital companies, also did not contribute to the growth of optimism. In addition, the European Commission launched an attack on Amazon, accusing the company of "distortion of competition", illegal data collection, misuse and other deadly and not very deadly sins. The change of power in the United States means quite a lot of tectonic and not so much shifts in the financial markets and not only. We have already written that the stocks of cannabis producers may again be in the spotlight, as it was already in the fall of 2017, when Canada legalized cannabis in the country. In the end of 2017 the shares of companies like Canopy Growth, Aurora Cannabis, GW pharmaceuticals have grown exponentially in a matter of months. So over the last month, the first two have already added about 100% to their October prices and, apparently, this may be just the beginning. The US House of Representatives is set to vote in December to legalize the use of cannabis. At the same time, in a number of states, during the latest elections, referendums were also held on the legalization of medical or recreational marijuana. Since the vote was successful, there is reason to expect the opening of one of the largest cannabis markets in the world. And this cannot but lead to an increase in the shares of companies that are world leaders in the production of marijuana: Canopy Growth and Aurora Cannabis.
Short
by Trade24Fx
3
Flash of optimism from Pfizer and oil expectations from OPEC+Markets were greeted Monday in high spirits over Biden's victory in the US Presidential election. But the real excitement began when Pfizer said its experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. Markets took this almost as a victory in the fight against the pandemic. Accordingly, the safe-haven assets were sold out, while risky assets, on the contrary, were actively bought. The wave of optimism was not stopped by the information that the results were published on a very small sample, if not negligible (a total of 94 cases), nor the fact that the vaccine must be stored at -80 ° C, which can create serious logistical problems. Unfortunately, no one bothered to ask the main question, what does this news change here and now? And the answer is obvious - nothing. Here and now and in the horizon of the coming months, this will in no way solve the problem with the pandemic. But the problem is here and now. It's been a week since the lockdowns were announced in Europe, so what? The number of new cases in France, which has one of the most severe lockdowns, did not decrease, but increased significantly. This means, at best, that the lockdown will be extended. As a result, Goldman Sachs revised Europe's forecast for the fourth quarter from 9.1% growth (!) to a decline of 8.7% (!!!). The United States is literally one step away from a new lockdown. It's very strange that no one thinks about all this. Especially if you remember other recent news. For example, the European Union has raised tariffs on American goods by up to $ 4 billion. Or the updated forecasts from Goldman Sachs, which lowered their forecast for growth in the United States for the first quarter of 2021 by 2 times (!) from 7% to 3.5%. In this regard, we continue selling risky assets, including the US stock market, as well as buying safe haven assets, including the US dollar. The oil market was also optimistic yesterday. The general positive sentiment was superimposed by the information that OPEC + is seriously considering the option to postpone the increase in production, as the renewed pandemic strikes a new blow on demand in the oil market.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
1
Week in a Glance: US elections, central banks, NFP and pandemicThe main event of the past week was the US elections. And they were rather surprising. The Blue wave, widely expected by experts and analysts, has failed. The name of the new President was not announced until Saturday - the candidates were extremely close. But in the end, Biden won. Although Trump has not given up yet and is going to sue. So, we have the worst-case scenario. Especially when you consider that the Democrats have lost a number of seats in the House of Representatives, and the Senate, it seems, will remain under the control of the Republicans. In general, despite the optimism that prevailed in the US stock market all week, we consider it clearly premature. The risks are quite material and very significant. Other events, naturally, faded against the background of the elections, but this did not make them less significant. The pandemic set new records both in the world and in Europe and the United States. And if Europe has already closed, then the United States has so far been focused on the elections. But the steady excess of 100,000 new cases per day makes a return to this question inevitable. This means that the damage to the economy is inevitable. In this light, the revisions towards lowering their forecasts for economic development by the EU have become quite indicative. The Central Banks of Australia, England and the USA met during the week. And if the latter have not yet begun to change the parameters of monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the rate and for the first time introduced a quantitative easing program, and the Bank of England increased QE size in UK. That is, the central banks have already begun to act, which only confirms how serious the situation is. The statistics on the US labor market came out better than forecasted, the markets ignored it, firstly, there was no time for this due to the elections, and secondly, in the light of the future lockdown, it is still not representative, since all past trends will be instantly crossed out. Based on the mentioned above, we expect that the current week will be sobering for the markets, that is, stock indices will go down where they belong, oil quotes will go down, and the dollar will strengthen.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
2