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SPX ( S&P 500 ) risk investors on or off trade.Here is another trading Snack. Ever sense the stock market pushed to it last all-time-high, followed by risk off fears of the pandemic, we’ve only challenged the re trace move bacK to the 61.8 Fib level and now are grinding around. With zero or close to zero rates in most of the world, money managers who for the most part have only seen for the last 11 years a by the dip strategy, now are managing from the point of stocks are the only real game in town. This kind of mind set only feeds the fire of a grinding market till the next great big head line. To some degree investors are also looking towards the nation reopening up after the virus appears to be under control from spreading farther. But what will the effects of the nation closing the economy have on future outlooks and business planing? Most of the virus number that will effect investor short sided views aren’t in the mix yet. Mostly those numbers just started to show up, or in some headlines are the best guesses of our investor gurus in our present times. Buffet one of the greatest investors said the other day, now is not the time to buy! In fact his investment firm has been actively selling and raising cash levels. So what is the trade? In my opinion ask yourself what is the driving force in pushing stocks higher over the 61.8 level and then challenge those all-time-highs again? If you can not find a reasonable driver to that possibility, then the higher probability trade is sell the rallies.
SP:SPXShort
by PipsTradingClub
Are you confident ?Another Forex Trading Snack. I posted up a earlier a trade that failed me and my original setup. Sudden volatility struck fast and hard! Ok, I will admit it, for a moment my emotions were crushed. I went from trading my setup emotionless, to just about packing it all in for the day! What changed? A bit of self talk changed my fear of having just lost, to playing the statistical odds of my setup again. The first top red arrow was my failure due to increased and sudden volatility. My second attempt was the lower second red arrow by the pink trend line. Both the first and the second order was to sell AUDUSD and both orders were almost at the same price & stop zone. Some might say why did I try it again? Sure volatility was still in the market, but it was my original setup along with the 21 SMA ( black line ) that gave me the confidence that after almost climbing for a week straight, this one was ready for a pullback. In addition to that increased volatility didn’t break the 21 and hold it, but price action went right back to the lower channel trend line. My thought was if it breaks lower and holds the break, the 21 would bend lower and hold the buyers at bay until even the buyers of the past week would take their profits, thus adding to the down side pressure. In early Asian trade and as I type, my trade looks fine, stops are at break even (BE) and if I got out right here and now—what once was a 30 pip loss is now a +20 pip gain if I took it off. Because my stops are at BE should they get hit there would be zero effect to the account balance as it sits now. If that happened I’d take a 30 pip daily loss on these two trades. Not a bad loss average if that happened. Because the odds are in my favor, I’m leaving it alone till early Europe’s market open to see if it drops farther. Because if it drops farther I could take a 20, 30, 40... you get the picture. I can finish my trades with making more then I lost to begin with. That’s adding to my confidence and positive consistency in trading. If this happened to you earlier, would you have had the confidence and or conviction to try again after getting stoped out suddenly by volatility?? Would you, or do you keep statistics on trading setups / trade plans or strategies, in order to give you more convenience and or more consistent results? Would you have entered the trade the second time changing entry, stops, or just did as I did , same everything? Finally do you trade Every time you see your setup as your strategies say are the best to trade, or do you second guess the setup—only to see at times the trade leave without you? The goal is self improvement! By me posting this it drives the point home in my mind that I need reminders too. Hope this helps in a small way in your trading journey. In trading you either make dust or you will eat dust! Al the best. This is not trading advice. It is however a real experience in my trading day. Off to the next trade!
by PipsTradingClub
AUDJPY wedge play for 4/16-17/20Here is another trading snack! AUDJPY has created this really nice bearish wedge pattern. In my opinion there is two good ways to play this pattern. As always patterns can and often do break in the opposite direction from ones own analysis or market bias’s. Having said that, trade if you must with your own risk tolerances. ‘‘Tis also isn’t trading advice, but my opinion on how I’m trading this pattern. What I’d like to see is a retest if the upper trend line. It may or may not happen. I’ve set orders in the upper red box to go short with stops just over the red box. But because I suspect a break down in price. I’ve also set sell orders just below the lower red box, the one just under the lower trend lie—with again stops just over the top of that same red box. The green boxes are targets and TP zones. Ideally I’d like a retest if the upper trend line and then a break down to my lower orders. If that happens I’d move stops upon the lower orders filling to my upper orders if filled. Those stops would go to my BE point or my upper average price. Once price has moved another 20 pips or do I’d move all stops to my BE on total orders average price and wait on my targets. The strategy is to put on as many orders as my trade plan allows while limiting my risk, and while allowing for the market to move with breathing room to this consolidation pattern. In recap. The upper orders might not get filled. But a breakdown will still get me in on the idea. If the upper orders get filled but price action breaks higher, I’ve limited my risk to my accepted levels. But if the strategy goes as planed then this idea should double in size as far as trading lots, but limit my risk to a level as if I was only trading 1/2 the size in lots. As always, you either make dust in trading or you will eat dust! Again this is only an educational post on how I’m choosing to trade this idea. It is not trading advice! All the best in your own trades.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
1/14/2020 USDNOKImpulsive moves are what we are looking for. Right? I mean those are the moves that have the biggest bang for the trading risk buck! However looking around the charts sometimes you just run into a move that has already happened. Sad, but it’s true all to often. Opportunity could just be hiding in plain sight though. This is when I look for a EW ( Elliott Wave ) 5 Wave pattern. I’m no EW wave trader, but learned to spot those 5 wave patterns. First EW 5 waves are moves that happen in impulsive moves and more importantly, they’re mostly an ending move pattern followed by a counter move. A very reliable pattern with a very high percentage of these kind of out comes. Second the 4 wave is usually drawn out over a longer time and the move to the ending 5 wave is more sudden. This gives time to get in on the action even though most of the impulsive move happened when you were looking right instead of left. Spotting these on the daily or 4 hour charts is what I trade if they’re seen. USDNOK is currently in what I think is a EW 4th wave ( see the attached chart)!and about to go down more into the 5Th. In addition to the daily chart, taking a look into the 4H we can see a rectangle consolidating price action just under the 200 day daily moving average. Should this break down lower price according to EW pattern it should make a new low. I’m looking for 8.75-8.70 From it current price of 8.87-8.88 a very nice move indeed if and when it happens. I’ve placed no orders out to see if they get filled over my night. Remember yo use personal appropriate risk for you and your size of trading account. Because you know, Forex Trading is the hardest easy money you’ll try to make. All the best in your trading.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
1/13/2020 AUDJPY Another Forex Trading Snack. AUDJPY on my weekly chart it shows an interesting point in price action. Sitting just below a multi year trend line ( a trend line going back to 2018 ) this down slopping pink trend line should provide a cap in price. Usually price action taking a crack at a multi year line doesn’t break through on the first try. My bias is to set up shorts at or around the 77.00 however price is stalling at the 76.00 currently. Moving down to the 4H chart I can see a short term range setting up between the top 76.00 and the bottom 75.40-50 as the zones to break for who may take short term control between the buyers or sellers. Short term or longer term trades have some planing to do. My bias is still on the longer side of things and have placed short orders at and around 77.00 stops just above that. For me that a good well defined risk zone. For you all... well you can decide for yourselves. Remember Forex trading is the hardest easy money you’ll ever make! Plan your trades and trade your plans accordingly to your risk comfort zone. All the best in your trades.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
1/12/2020 EURUSD long ideaAnother Forex Trading Snack! The EUR has been trapped inside of a multi year wedge pattern ( indicated by the blue trend lines ) but once it broke out of this pattern it’s bias in my opinion is to the long side. Also recently the DXY index has formed a wedge like shorter term pattern and the exact inverse pattern of the DXY is the gray trend lines indicated on this chart. My idea is buying the dips. My red box is my buy zone as well the bottom of the box is my extreme stop placement. Should orders get filled I would expect the top of the gray pattern line as the first target zone, but secretly wanting a breakout to happen. As always all the best in your trading. A EURUSD landscape daily chart Always remember, Forex Trading is the hardest Easy money you’ll ever make!! Plan your trade, and trade your plan with your individual risk management.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
Gap trading I’m often asked about gap trading after I post up a gap trade setup. Usually the question is, “ what is my strategy in trading gaps?”, or “What is gap trading?” Back in June 28-30 this gap happened in spot gold. ( the pink circle) it’s a good example of gap trading from real charts not text book examples. Well first of all, not all gaps are created equally. On days where the market, or certain currency pairs gap in price right from the open, gapping with a larger gap from the previous Friday closing price, those are my targeted trading opportunities and here is why! Any gap which is larger then 30-40 pips or even bigger are good opportunities. The 30-40 is a minimum range in gap totally depending on the pairs daily true range. Example with the USDJPY pair. The daily range is a smaller range so a gap of 30-40 pips is a good opportunity. I’ve seen gaps of 100 and more in this pair. So weather it gaps up or down we are interested in taking the other side of the gap. Mostly a gap is created by imbalances in the market and one of my rules of trading states... “nothing moves in a straight line for a long!” Imbalances correct themselves, overly excited traders pushing price in a straight line and at some point they also take profits. Thus price pulls back ending a straight line move or in case of a gap the imbalances seek to correct just because of the imbalance at the open. Going into this weeks open I will be actively looking for gaps in currency pairs with tighter broker spreads. Because some pairs will open the week with 10-20 pips or more in broker spreads, those pairs are right off my list of pairs to watch for gaps. Unless these pairs ( larger broker spreads ) gap by 100 pips or more, I don’t bother with them. I don’t even look at them unless same underlying pair in a smaller spreads pair gaps are over sized. Example: if the USDJPY ( a pair who usually has a tighter broker spread even in low liquidity ) gap is let’s say 50-70 or on the larger side of things, we could expect that the EURJPY or the GBPJPY gaps will also be larger even in those pairs even with broker spreads being larger on average to start with. So the trade strategy is simple. Using the 15 minute chart I allow the first candle to form. With a larger gap we then enter the trade slightly to the gaps direction after the closing price of that first 15 M candle then the first candles closing price. Example of this would be; if the pair gaps higher and the 15M candle closed at 109.00 then we’d set a sell order at 109.05 or 109.10, because both entries are at higher prices then the 15 M candle close. We at the same time set a tighter stop setting because gaps can get larger before returning to closing the gap. Usually we set the stop above the first 15M candle. But there is a second strategy of playing a gap trade. One could enter the trade just like my example above but also setting more orders in the direction of the gap just in case of an even larger gap move after the opening gap. After the orders are filled we wait for the closing move. Mind you, these weekly opening gaps are also in the lowest liquidity part of a new trading day, so gaps usually will close heading into the Asian market days open. We get out of the trade in my standard way. By taking some off as soon as the trade moves in a positive way equal to my stop setting. At the very point we take some profits off we also move stops to break even ( BE ) and allow the trade to hit targets because we have a free ride trade or risk free trade. Once we get to this point of a free ride trade, I always allow the market to take me out at either my targeted profit zone or at BE. No more management or time must be devoted to this trade. Besides the outcome is either profits or no negative effect to my trading account. So my time is better used in finding the next opportunities. That’s it! That’s gap trading how I do it. It a higher percentage trade because to a higher degree these gaps close before moving again in their longer term trends. Side note: should a gap happen counter longer term trend then your profit targets could well be beyond the close of the gap. This would allow for your trade to move with the trend for a longer term or bigger profits. These kind of gaps are my favorite kinds to take. Because the gap in price gives a great price because the gap is counter trend but the trades outcome can be larger by added to the original trade. Because the start of the position is risk free or has booked small profits. So adding orders on doesn’t have to increase risk to the trade. I’d have to do another post on adding to positions once you’ve started a trade in the longer term trends directional move. Until next time! All the best in your trading.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by PipsTradingClub
EURUSD expected high probability moves in line to NFP reportsJust another Forex trading snack! I’ve mentioned it in chat before... “just before major expected news releases EURUSD usually seeks middle ground.” For most of this week I’ve been long EU, but mid week just before NFP release, I started to look for shorts. Why? Because for years now EUR and other dollar pairs have set their respective high’s or low’s and then moved to a middle of the most recent short trend move. This time was no different. EURUSD jumped off it weekly wedge low 1.09 ish and shot up to close to 1.11 this morning 9-5-19. From there it was an easy as well as a high probability short entry trade. If you have statistics like this which point to high probability moves—that’s an edge! This Friday morning 9-6-19 we will get a move either higher or lower for the EURUSD after the NFP report. So trying to trade that directionally before hand on the news is gambling. Playing the market as I have using known statistical prior to moves or reactions, well, that a higher probability of making money with lower risk. That is also the difference to consistently becoming more successful and patient as a trader. In life as in trading, you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best in your trading. This is not trading advice, but the information is for trading purposes only. If you trade any ideahttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tDPoQRzt/ you assume all risk of loss.
by PipsTradingClub
Intra day long Trade GBPUSD Yes I know my earlier post was about wanting Sell this pair around the 1.2300 level. However, with this impulsive and sudden move higher and taking into account of some potential dollar positive news on Friday ( tomorrow / 8/23/19 ) I can see a run up in price based on a EW 5 wave setup I see on the hourly or 30M charts. I know they are short term charts, but this is only a short term intra day trade / a tad bit longer scalping trade. You can pick which is which. If I were to try this trade...and I might yet due to the fact it plays well with my targeted starting point where I’d like to go short. And there is nothing wrong with being a tad bit aggressive with trades so long as you trade light Use tight stops Have already booked profits to then risk being aggressive on a trade. Have a clear plan And are prepared to trade that plan using your rules. If I were to trade this—I’m looking at the pink zones / horizontal supports, as my entry points. Those zones play well with fib levels as well. I’d use 20 pips stops or less, and I’d target just above the highs of the last 12 hours as of this post as my take profit zone. Over all I like to go short on my longer time frame charts. With this potential short-term EW 5 wave setup, it only adds to my conviction on going short at my levels should it play out. All the best. Should you trade any setup / idea, you assume all risk of loss. In life and in trading, you either make dust or you eat dust.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
GBPUSD up dateHere is another Forex trading snack! With news bombs flying around GBPUSD has finely broken higher. But what’s new here with these kind of moves right? It seems the market is leaning very negative, so when there is news, rumors of news, or news that can be interpreted as positive / no hard Brexit, the currency has a higher probability of jumping higher. But as I was saying in a previous post I was waiting for higher prices to then go short once again. However when triangles form like this one did on the 4 H chart.... Then I usually take an aggressive counter trend trade— just in case of such moves. My idea here isn’t based on technical or economic changes, but on nailing the traders who entered the trade on the short side expecting a normal triangle break with the over all longer trend, but were stopped out on a news bomb! I was able to scalp 65 pips by setting a long order just over the top triangles trend line and then set a take profit just under my new order short zone I had pointed out some days earlier. For the short trade idea now... I’m looking to enter short orders around the 1.23 level or that longer term black descending trend line. It a swing style trade, so a good technical level with the 50 and 61.8 fib’s And that descending trend line. If GBPUSD does push over the 1.2380-1.24 price I’d expect short traders to get squeezed and run for the hills. So I feel short traders will defend the zone where my entry price targets are. We will have to wait to see what happens in Asia’s Friday’s market open or maybe even Europe’s open. I suspect this triangle break will have some traders yet grabbing their short trade profits before the weekend. In turn giving my short trade idea a better price to enter. As normal, if you trade any ideas, the overall risk of loss is yours. This is not trading advice, but for training purposes on how I trade the markets. In life as well as in trading, you either make dust or eat dust! All the best.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
NZDUSD trade idea Thought I’d poss up some Forex trading snacks! The NZDUSD is coming into a short term risk reward zone and up against a falling channel trend line. I see this as an opportunity to short some mainly because the price action is heading into multiple technical resistance zones and the back story is one of one of the most dovish central banks VS one central bank that is reluctantly becoming dovish. Also set into the mix, with a risk off stance currently entering the markets—the stronger of the two currencies is the USD just on it’s safe haven status. On this 4 hour chart you can see the falling channel and current price action hovering around the upper channel around 0.6450 Using the last daily high price around 0.6470 as a stop zone, which is also above the falling trend line for some more possible added resistance. The pair would need to break what has been a stronger trend of late to invalidate this setup. My target for entry is 0.6440-50 , my targets would be the recent years low around 0.6300-50 Recap; short trade entry 0.6440-50 Stop. 0.6470 Total risk. 20-30 pips Target 0.6300-50 or 100-150 pips Risk reward Better then 1-3 Trade idea is only for education and training. Should you trade any idea the assumption of risk is all yours. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. Plan your trade and trade you own plan. All the best
Short
by PipsTradingClub
EURUSD I believe moves more on dollar revaluation .Wow! What crazy short term market moves!! That right on a day like today where the EU zone reported weaker economic numbers but seemingly the EUR held up in value until news / rumors / or presidential Tweet on social media, announced that the China trade war was relaxing just a bit. Pushing tariffs out which gave the impression of relaxing the hard line trade war stance and a heightened possibility for a trade war resolution... And Poof! EUR weakens USD strengthens, and a lot of newer traders are asking themselves seeing the sudden moves “Now what?” Understand what is most likely to happen if and when this trade war really ends. Today’s moves were nothing... First let me say I don’t have all the answers. I’ve made most if not all the kind of mistakes you have made. I lost some money today on the EURGBP trade idea I posted, but also was on the right side of a win-fall calling the GBPCAD move right. What I’m saying is just my personal opinion, my thoughts, and observations, and how the EURUSD has moved this summertime period. And it is my belief that the EURUSD should it be on the side of strengthening and moving up—that a move like that is mostly due to government dollar revaluation, and not due to economic outlooks. On my daily chart you can see the EURUSD has been over all, in the long term grinding lower. Recently Trump tweeted how he wanted lower rates / lower dollar valuations, and Poof! EURUSD created a false breakdown—jumping into the 1.1200’s and there began stalling. Economically what really changed in either economy? Both the US and the EUR zone were starting to show signs of a global slowdown. What I’m seeing is the markets have carved out a channel showing the extremes of valuations within these times of nations attempting to use politics to manipulate currency values and keep economies going despite politically overspending. So what does this have to do with trying to trade the EURUSD? As traders we value trades as to where are the highest probabilities of a move happening. Up or down being in the center of a daily channel I’d say there is a 50% chance of it going up and a 50% chance of going down. No real trade probabilities. Of coarse as I explained already political Tweets can move markets. So as the EURUSD moves down towards the lower channel trend-line the odds of a bounce goes up. Why? Because president Trump needs a weaker dollar in an attempt to get a more favorable out come with the China trade disputes. And as the EURUSD goes down towards the lower trend-line, the probabilities of crazy tweets increases, and the current market outlook for the Fed cutting rates in the US more—should push the pair higher. On the top end though what conditions could take place pushing the EURUSD towards 1.1350ish ?Certainly not in terms of true economic comparisons between the 2 economies should the EURUSD sustain that kind of valuations. Only a successful political policy of the USA government to weaken the dollar could in my view. But then who am I? Being in the middle of the range and having a higher news risk to trading this pair, makes this one a bit more risky to trade for new traders. If you are looking to trade it... trade lighter and with smaller size. Use tighter stops ( thus risking less), shorten profits target zones ( don’t have unrealistic dreams of a favorable bigger move, yet be aware of a large unfavorable move that can happen with just a Tweet. ) Those should be the lessons of today’s market moves. Good luck to all your trades. In markets like today, you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best.
by PipsTradingClub
2
It's a loser's game - officiallyThis post is modified and re-posted after it was banned (a matter of fact and the truth). Why? I was said to be promoting a broker's website seemingly because by I identified the source of quotation and said that they were being honest. I have now substituted the name the broker with a fictitious ABCXYZ (which is not the name of any broker as far as I am aware). The rest of the post is the same. I promote nobody - not even myself. ESMA is not a broker. The quotation is directly from an email I received today from ABCXYZ.com ABCXYZ.com has been fully transparent on the risk of losing money on it's platform. Nothing in this educational post is to suggest that people avoid trading. The sole intention of this post is for new and season traders to better understand the risks, and to realise the amount of effort, discipline, training and sacrifice that are needed to become consistently profitable. As a new trader your chances are very very slim, for making consistent profits over months or years. Some people think that it's all about following a set or rules. Well, if it was that simple then 80% of people would just follow rules and be millionaires. That's not going to happen! For novices, the high probability of losing money is nothing to do with any particular broker. It must be something else! I'm afraid the most important factor is hardly ever discussed in forums. What's that? It's about 'trader psychology'. It's that unseen thing - the elephant in the room - that causes the problems. I say, it does not matter what system you use to tackle the markets with, the underlying obstacle is 'your psychology'. It is not about mastering the charts. It's all about self-mastery. Any dissenting opinions? Have your say now. For the avoidance of doubt or suspicion, I am 100% committed to helping other traders develop for absolutely no pecuniary or other advantage to me - ever! In other words, I'll never take you to some site that sells tips, signals, or courses - where you'd start of at free but then have to pay to learn from some 'inner circle'.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Three things Mark Douglas taught me. (Pt2) Risk & Money Management Risk management, in my opinion, is equal in importance to psychology because it allows your trading strategy/edge to play out by keeping you in the market equity wise. There really isn’t much to risk management other than its number one rule, never risk more than 1% per trade. Risking one percent per trade allows your trading system to take losses and have drawdowns but not enough to the point that you won’t be able to get out of it. I’m actually not a big fan of risk so I place trades using less than 1% of my capital. A lot of traders would think risking .75% per trade based off of my trading strategy is ludicrous but to me, it makes a lot of sense. As a trend follower, I take multiple small losses and few big winners that make double, triple, or quadruple, the loss. Trend following is very difficult because of the multiple small losses but definitely pays off because it lets your winners run. Big winners and small losses are definitely a trader’s best friend because it allows you to have a high risk reward ratio. If you risk $1 per trade, your goal is to make at least $4 back. If you constantly trade looking for 4x your risk all you need to do is win more than 20% of the time to be profitable. (Ex: Win 1 trade=$4 Lose 4=$4=0) .To be profitable you have to win more than 1/5 trades or 20%. With that being said, risk management gets even better when you use money management. As you can tell from the title, money management and risk management are two different things in my opinion. This wasn’t always true though. The old me would've said risk management and money management are the same exact thing but now that I know what I know now, I completely disagree. Money management to me is where you spread your risk to give yourself an even bigger edge. To illustrate, let’s look at the example shown here. According to my trading strategy my risk would be .75% of my equity on this trade but I would "spread the .75%" by taking it and dividing it into six trades instead of placing it on one. Let’s say I have $1000 in my trading account with .75% of $1k being $7.5. I would take the $7.5 and divide it into six or $1.25 per trade. My trading system would've told me to take buy limit trades at 1.66308 and 1.66815 at .005 lots (possible through Oanda) at 25 pips stop loss. Unfortunately the trades would’ve been a loss of $2.50 total or -.25% but because I'm spreading the risk I would still be able to enter four more trades. The remaining four would be a buy stop at 1.6654, 1.67068, and two at 1.67980 in anticipation of price closing at 1.68300 for us to take profit. If we were to follow our trading plan and disregarded negative psychological energy, our end profit would be as follows: -$1.25, -$1.25, +8.73, $5.90= Total profit $12.13 or 1.2% gain.
Education
by ElieTheForexTraitor
5
GBPJPY currently consolidating* NEW TRADER any tips or comments would be much appreciated!* GJ is in a uptrend in the daily chart but is currently going through some consolidation on hourly. If it breaks the trend-line then I will be looking for a longer term sell, still have to see a pullback. If it hits the light blue mark, that could be a short opportunity for a buy(would set the take profit close to the resistance). Will have to keep up with the market to see where it's going.
by sagagenesis
1