Three things Mark Douglas taught me. (Pt2)
Risk & Money Management
Risk management, in my opinion, is equal in importance to psychology because it allows your trading strategy/edge to play out by keeping you in the market equity wise. There really isn’t much to risk management other than its number one rule, never risk more than 1% per trade. Risking one percent per trade allows your trading system to take losses and have drawdowns but not enough to the point that you won’t be able to get out of it. I’m actually not a big fan of risk so I place trades using less than 1% of my capital. A lot of traders would think risking .75% per trade based off of my trading strategy is ludicrous but to me, it makes a lot of sense. As a trend follower, I take multiple small losses and few big winners that make double, triple, or quadruple, the loss. Trend following is very difficult because of the multiple small losses but definitely pays off because it lets your winners run. Big winners and small losses are definitely a trader’s best friend because it allows you to have a high risk reward ratio. If you risk $1 per trade, your goal is to make at least $4 back. If you constantly trade looking for 4x your risk all you need to do is win more than 20% of the time to be profitable. (Ex: Win 1 trade=$4 Lose 4=$4=0) .To be profitable you have to win more than 1/5 trades or 20%. With that being said, risk management gets even better when you use money management. As you can tell from the title, money management and risk management are two different things in my opinion. This wasn’t always true though. The old me would've said risk management and money management are the same exact thing but now that I know what I know now, I completely disagree. Money management to me is where you spread your risk to give yourself an even bigger edge. To illustrate, let’s look at the example shown here. According to my trading strategy my risk would be .75% of my equity on this trade but I would "spread the .75%" by taking it and dividing it into six trades instead of placing it on one. Let’s say I have $1000 in my trading account with .75% of $1k being $7.5. I would take the $7.5 and divide it into six or $1.25 per trade. My trading system would've told me to take buy limit trades at 1.66308 and 1.66815 at .005 lots (possible through Oanda) at 25 pips stop loss. Unfortunately the trades would’ve been a loss of $2.50 total or -.25% but because I'm spreading the risk I would still be able to enter four more trades. The remaining four would be a buy stop at 1.6654, 1.67068, and two at 1.67980 in anticipation of price closing at 1.68300 for us to take profit. If we were to follow our trading plan and disregarded negative psychological energy, our end profit would be as follows: -$1.25, -$1.25, +8.73, $5.90= Total profit $12.13 or 1.2% gain.
Newtrader
GBPJPY currently consolidating* NEW TRADER any tips or comments would be much appreciated!*
GJ is in a uptrend in the daily chart but is currently going through some consolidation on hourly. If it breaks the trend-line then I will be looking for a longer term sell, still have to see a pullback. If it hits the light blue mark, that could be a short opportunity for a buy(would set the take profit close to the resistance). Will have to keep up with the market to see where it's going.
NzdUSD, cypher bullish, 2 hourHello Again!
Here we go.
Cypher on the 2 hour time frame.
We got the 15min time frame, cypher patter complete.
And now looking for the D leg, on the big and small cypher patter bullish.
The big one D complete: 0.72365
The smaller one D complete: 0.72690.
ill look for the Smaller one first, and if this one not will complete, the bigger one.
Rsi almost oversold.
Let's wait and see. :)
Gold, XAUUSD, Gartley Bear , head & shoulder formation? 1Hour.We got a head and a shoulder formation.
Now we move into a gartley formation, we just need to the D point on : 1325.652.
Targets 1 : 1319.059
Targets 2: 1317.501.
Rsi, was oversolgt, and now will move up.
Gartley bullish on the weekley time frame.
We must not go over 1376.380, when it will be unconfirmed.
GBPUSD, Gartley long & short. ? DailyHello. Hope u all have a great weekend.
This week, ill look on the Dailey time frame.
Ill look for the D point on the BIG green on : 1.35353. Long
Target 1: 1.38465.
Target 2: 1.40345.
Stop loss: 1.32616.
On the small blue, ill look for the D point on : 1.39933 Short
Target 1: 1.38869
Target 2: 1.38200
Stop loss: 1.40825
New trader set-type using order flow long position Mo/W/D GSPUSDHave indicatios and a bias to believe that there are opportunities for the GBPUSD to go long for the Mo/W/D timeframes as trend momentum downwards has been broken, and overall Mo is up. Using the trading methodology from my mentor we can utilize a set and forget type of trade of the order flow method, since upward monthly trend is currently upward.
new trader GBPUSD 1.3384 shortMade this trade with speculation that GBPUSD is short, however trade is going against me at the moment. I utilized my strategy of creating a range between my blue and red levels, and encapsulated within them speculated inside of the shorter timeframes. Although the trade is going against me, I am using risk management that is proper and comfortable for my trade style. I am considering switching back from my new style/experiment from intraday back to a more swing trading style and larger timeframe - as this style is causing me stress along with college.
new trader possible several intraday captures using flowHave bias on several possibly intraday captures for the EURUSD; as I suspect price is ranging between my levels indicated in blue and red. this is because price may be ranging between the two, and using my current methodology aim to exploit and capture price fluctuations at low risk and gain moderate at at best, high returns. I believe there is a short opportunity as the overall momentum trend line is heading downwards for either intraday or more long duration trades. Furthermore, as many traders state the trend is your friend, although being creative with your own ideas, it is good to utilize what works.
new trader utilizing trend momentum, flowHave bias to believe that, as trend momentum has been broken, from upwards to downwards on the 4HR/1HR charts for the EURUSD -
but overall may be going long for the Daily and Weekly chart timeframes. I believe price may spike down and hit my levels colored blue for a overall rally on the Daily and Weekly charts. However, I would like to capture price going down on the H or 4HR in order to gain more experience with longer, intraday, type of trading, as I believe it fits my style more, and I would perhaps like to trade more often as in full-time. Risk is a conservative acceptable level for me.
new trader utilizing flow methodologyI have bias to believe that price for the GBP/USD will slightly fluctuate or reverse with my designated zones. this is due to levels within the blue and red zones where there I believe may be a imbalance, and price will flow, or reverse in order to go to other levels. My trades placed are limit orders, and aim to capture these reversals with low risk, and moderate-to-high rewards. This strategy is used with analyzing the current trend momentum, blue levels and red levels indicating imbalances we aim to exploit for low risk trades.
At the moment, I am testing a new strategy of my existing, seeking to capture and exit 3 trades during their reversals.
EURAUD New pair analysiswas working on this analysis awhile. Honestly after plotting trend lines and S&R I was having a hard time finding any REAL pattern, but based off market patterns I've seen before, as well as the EMA's its looking like a short consolidation and more rise to either the macro downtrend line and then more drop, OR rise up over the potential new uptrend line. keep an eye out. I put a 0.25 trade on demo with this markup for the rise. entered at 1.50564, TP set for 1.51000, SL will be set at 1.50200
*This is NOT a trade signal. I am still learning to analyze charts an am using these notes as my personal journal through my journey*