EURUSD Chart Analysis and Strategy Implementation Lately I've been doing some chart analysis in the market using charts on the Daily Time-frames to identify it's trend. And slowly developing my own trading Strategy ( Semi Auto-Trading Ranging Market Strategy-SATRMS )
So I have identified that the EURUSD had been ranging for the past year or two (since 2015 till to date)
So I took the highest( 1.17143 ) and lowest( 1.03402 ) points of the current market since it started ranging to create a Boundary for my trading . And then split it up into zones where I will have a high chance of it respecting my setup. I identified 2 zones where I can implement my Ranging strategy setup.
Zone 1 ( 1.17143 to 1.10965 ) Orange Box
Zone 2 ( 1.10965 to 1.03402 ) Yellow Box.
Then I used the Fibonacci Retracement Tool to setup my Areas of Trades in each zones
So then I did a short back testing with about a total of 73 trades lasting about 7 months.
So within 7 months I had about 73 trades.
Then I did some calculation to identify it's Win/Loss ( 33:40 ) ratio
So overall the W:L Ratio is 45.20% out of the 73 trades with an average of 1.8 Risk/Reward Ratio on each trade, not that great but overall still a positive outcome.
Looking to improve my Semi Auto-Trading Ranging Strategy along the way but for now it's alright taking into consideration that there is a higher risk/reward of 1.8 so a 45% W:L provides a positive outcome.
But this is just for a ranging market but overall I can still implement a Trend following strategy within this Setup. And implement it into multiple Currencies if it's ranging in the longer term trends.
Purpose of Strategy: To create a Trading boundary in a ranging market and setup trigger points for trades to be open(Pending Orders) within the boundaries. So it acts like a Semi Auto-Trading Strategy where you just set trigger points for trades to be opened and just re-enter the pending orders once it's triggered and the trade has been closed.(it may be fully auto-trading but I don't know how to make a Trading robot yet)
Trades may last a few days or a whole week(Depends on the market)
Doesn't need to be re-analysed unless the major boundaries are broken which helps us indicate a possible transition of a Bullish or Bearish trending market(depending on which boundary is broken, Support or Resistance)
Reason for Daily Time-frame: I find that the daily time-frame helps me identify proper long term trends in the market that are more reliable for my trading compared to the lower time-frames.
For now that's the details i can provide to help explain this strategy that I use to plot my trades.
I will be sharing another post on this showing my Areas of trade executions and P:L ratios.
P.S Just sharing my ideas on my trading :) I hope you enjoyed reading this post
Newtraders
Next Weeks Trading Plan for EURUSDHere is my analysis for next weeks trading plan for EUR/USD
Overall the current trend is a Bearish Trend, as Price levels are below the 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages that I have placed.
Since i never manage to place a Short Trade, it may be too late and the trend may come to an end :(
so I set up a Ranging Market setup which will help me determine if the trend will continue to go Bearish or have a reversal to a Bullish trend But if it ranges for the mean time, I hope to catch some good trades along the way.
A brief explanation of my analysis setup
The top and bottom Black Lines are the "Resistance" and "Support" levels that I have chosen to mark my trading area. The center black line is a 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level.
For the green lines they represent the 0.618 and 0.382 retracement levels respectively.
The blue lines are the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement levels for the 0.382 green line to the Black "Support" line and the 0.618 green line to the black "Resistance" line
The red lines are the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement levels from the blue lines to the Black "Resistance" and "Support" lines
The arrows on the chart shows the trade executions
Blue Arrows =Observation areas and Stop-loss areas.
Green Arrows = Areas for Long Positions
Red Arrows=Arrows for Short Positions
On the Left side of the chart,it shows the illustration of the Profit/Loss Ratio of the trades that will be made.
This setup also helps me determine trend formations. If price levels break through my "Resistance" it may signal a Bullish Trend and if it breaks through "Support" levels it signals a possible continuation of the bearish trend.
Went Short on EURGBP and made some PredictionsWent short at 0.86539 (382 Retracement Level) with a stop-loss at 0.87616 and a profit target at 0.83023 (Current Support Level).
Then I made some Prediction on market movement and future entries.
Red Arrows are Short Positions
Green Arrows are Long Positions
Blue arrows are stop-loss areas and Observation areas before making entries.
Mainly using Technical analysis using Price action and market movements,Support and resistance levels and Fibonacci Retracements to mark my levels of Entry,Stop-loss and Profit Targets
Top 5 Risk Management RulesTop 5 Risk Management Rules:
1. Only Trade with Risk Capital
-Risk Capital is the amount of money you are willing to lose and do not include your living capital into your trading account!
2. 2% Risk Management
-The 2% Rule prohibits you from risking more than 2% of your account equity on each trade you are entering.
3. 6% Risk Management
-The 6% Rule prohibits you from opening any new trades when your current open risks in your open trades reach 6% of your account equity.
4. 10% Risk Management
-The 10% Rule prohibits you from opening any new trades for the rest of the month when the sum of your losses for the current month and the risks in open trades reach 10% of your account equity.
5. Risk to Reward Ratio
-Only take the trades which provide you at least 1:2 Risk to Reward Ratio
Top 10 Trading Psychology RulesTop 10 Trading Psychology Rules:
1. Plan the Trade & Trade the Plan
-Plan all the potential trades beforehand, and trade accordingly with your plans
2. Always be Disciplined
-Do not create excuses to break your own trading rules
3. Expect Losses
-Do not take a trade unless you are willing to accept the risk
4. Emotion Management
-Always analyze your trade objectively and with a neutral of mindset
5. Focus on Trading Well
-As a trader, your focus is on making the good trades, not focus on making the money
6. Patient, Patient and Patient!!!
-Patient to wait for the Best Setups to trade, do not trade when there are no good setups
7. Trade What You See, Not What You Think
-Concern with the effects, not concern about the reasons behind of what are happening. Everything is on your charts!
8. The Trend is Always Your Good Friend
-The easiest money is made trading with the trend
9. Trading Evaluation
-Record down your trades, why are you entry and why are you exit, continuously improve yourself
10. Trading is a Marathon, not a Sprint!
-Be realistic, trading takes time to build experience