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NZDCAD EW 5 wave ideaWelcome to another Forex Trading Snack. NZDCAD looks good for a possible EW ( Elliott Wave ) 5 wave pattern on the hourly or the 2 hour and also in the 4 hour charts. Sometimes patterns are much more clear on a certain timeframe, but at times like this, it fairly clear in multiple times. Friday trade was wild with NFP news and price action that followed. Yet NZDCAD set up a nice pattern and along with using RSI it appears to have put in a short term top and now we can look for a 3 wave ( a, b, c, wave decline ) My game plan is looking for a bounce higher into Asian trade yet for the top around .8500 to hold as the high. There is a chance for a new top to form and still not upset this pattern. Assuming the top is in. I’m looking for price to go to or around .8475 and have that as a good selling point placing my stops just above the highs. My targets are .8400-.8375 That would be risking 25 pips to try to make a 100 A good risk reward play if I may say so. In forex trading you either make dust or you eat dust! If you trade any idea you automatically assume all risk of loss to your own trading account. No trade idea is a sure thing. Just because I maybe trading this idea doesn’t mean it will result in profits made or that our outcomes will be the same good, bad, or indifferent. All the best in your trades.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
EURUSD scalping patternsIt’s not all that often I get to post up a scalping plan. So here is another Forex Trading Snack! EURUSD broke above it channel it had been running in for about a week and one-half. Although it seems tired a bit for today. It’s still grinding higher. Although I can count a EW 5 wave in the 15M I would suspect pullbacks to be bought the closer we get to 1.1050-75 Longer term I’m seeing this one marching on to 1.1200-50 top of a very long term wedge pattern that has been forming for over a year now. With headline news risk, I think if we get the chance to short some on the approach of 1.1150 it could retest short term channel top line or even break lower just off of short term profit taking in front of the weekend. Remember this is counter trend. Trade light If you trade the risk is all yours. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best my trading warriors.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
So trading is headline driven... If you have been trading GBP pairs you’ve know all about the tape bombs or headline whiplash moves. It’s hard to get in a trade when a headline can just drop or jump by 100 or more pips regardless of technical setups. But we’ve somewhat known the with Brexit and any of the possibilities there of, things were going to get volatility rolling. So here is another Forex Trading Snack. At first I was caught wrong sided, then managed to get all of my losses back off a pull back trade, then missed getting in long before the next tape bomb hit... blah, blah, blah! I know! All of the should have, and could have trades, that didn’t hit! This brought my attention to the DXY and patterns I’ve been following for some time. Well today the pattern started to break down. Here is the landscape view of my DXY It is very similar to the EURUSD just inverse. Last Friday I had taken a very small long play on the EURUSD at the 1.10 level. Manage to move stops to BE ( Break even, no risk on trade ) but I’m looking to add to this position. If the DXY is breaking down it should test the 97 area, where its up channel lower trend line is currently. If or when that should happen, it would be reasonable to think the EURUSD would also test its upper trend line of a descending wedge pattern it has been in, and that is around 1.12-35 ish So long as EURUSD stays above the 1.1030 area recent resistance level I see the odds shifting to it going higher towards that 1.12. There is one question I have with the DXY index though. Just how much of it’s recent moves have only been due to GBP pairs, because they have really moved where EURUSD which is over 50% of the index hasn’t moved all that much in comparison. If you trade any idea, the risk is all yours. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best my trader warriors.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
Straight line move strategy II GBPJPY Well to say the least Friday’s move was a surprise. I mean back to back multiple hundred pip moves, WOW! The market is never wrong! So yes, why not such a moving pattern? Why not another day or two like the last. It’s all possible. Well here is how I took the challenge. And here is another Forex Trading Snack. Just because you lose a trade and take a losses, it just isn’t time to throwaway the strategy just yet. I would hope your strategy or trading plans would have some statistical statistics behind the plan in the first place. When the odds are in your favor and the trade isn’t working, what does your personality say to do? Mine says play the odds. This weeks open and boom! Straight from the start and the pair couldn’t push higher. What can not go higher must go the other way. I took the short play again. Just a bit lighter in size. A bit tighter of stops... You see on Friday’s trade I took a bigger size thinking the move was very large and in a straight line higher, yet the market kept squeezing higher, ending the day at the highs. My question all weekend was... How many people trading to the short side are left in the trade? On the flip side, how many more traders are looking to buy still more driving price higher? It is just this kind of thinking that has everyone on edge a bit with their risk capital, and which side would have better odds in setting up new positions. My strategy from the onset has been one born of which side has the better odds of moving In that one direction. After day one’s oversized move the odds were tilting ever more towards a reversal with every pip higher it moved. That was the mindset behind the trade and how it was setTing up at this new weeks open. So I took the same trade again, just smaller is size so it would be less of having a farther risk of loss. But I also took profits faster then usual. So with a profit of 120 i was all the way out. I mean, I took a 100 pip loss on Friday, just makes sense to take a break even or a slight profit and set out and see where the market wants go from here. The trade was get short at 137.60 and I got out at 136.40 Taking a 120 pip gain. It’s not perfect or even a trading idea of perfection. It’s just playing the odds with every trading idea. Good traders trade the odds and are consistently adjusting for the ever changing odds of the markets moves. This is always my goal, to improve myself in odds making and the markets moves. Here is the landscape view. If you trade, the risk of loss is all yours. If you trade you either make dust or you will eat dust. All the best my trading warriors.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
GBPJPY straight to the bankYou’ve all head the story of the Bulls, bears , and pigs..., you’ve herd that one before I’m sure! Bulls make money! Bears make money! But pigs get slaughtered!! Here is another Forex Trading Snack. GBPJPY along with I think every GBP pair ripped higher today in the markets. Good news on the Brexit front, or just good rumors to spark traders into positioning for what they think the future holds. Should a Brexit deal get done the pair will squeeze higher, a lot higher!! But with moves like today, some 3 X the 15 day average range of the pair it begs to short it. First; with a move like today the odds of it retracing some of the move is higher then more of a straight line move higher. Just my opinion anyway. Second; we are heading into Friday’s trade and the last day before the weekend—do you think the bulls are going to hold their positions over the weekend? Is there a reasonable chance for some news to bomb over the weekend to then take away some of the move anyway? If you think so, what are the odds?? Third; usually after the New York market closes for the day we see a small pull back from the days move and then an extension of that move early into Asian markets open. It’s just an observation on my part. GBPJPY’s pull back after that crazy run higher was small by any standards. Again what are the odds, the chances, the likelihood... or anyway you’d like to put it... what direction has the greater chance of happening in your opinion? Those are just some of the things I think about in looking at a straight line move of this magnitude. What’s the trade? I’m looking to take shorts ( to sell it ) if and when we get a pop up in price towards the 135.00 my stop placement is totally based on ones own risk tolerances. My targets would be if my orders get filled, I’d like to see a pullback to 133.50-1.3400 or better. I have already traded it to the short side from NY market highs down to 134.05 banking 40 pips per lot traded. But like I say, I believe if it should pop higher it will be short lived. Bulls will be looking to take at least some profits on this move before the weekend. My trade idea is looking to take advantage of traders repositioning because of the straight line move higher. If you chose to trade this idea the risk is all yours to assume. This is strictly my own idea and shouldn’t be taken as trading advice, but as only a look at how I trade the markets. In this way you can gain some insight and or some good training as to how other traders trade. You either make dust in the markets or you will eat dust. All the best my trading warriors.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
Revised EURCAD pattern & trade ideaTo say trading Forex / currencies can be frustrating, is an understatement. To be a good trader, we must shake it off and get busy searching for high probability trades worthy of risking our risk capital. So here is another Forex Trading Snack. Earlier ( what I mean is a few days ago ) I pointed out a nice EW ( Elliott Wave ) 5 wave pattern developing in my opinion. But as we all know the market is never wrong! And so as traders we much change with the ebb and flow of price action. To be good at trading and or to be always looking to improve our consistency in trade results, we need to maintain an open mind as well be open to changing our opinions or views. Enough about that! I still see EURCAD in a sort of EW 5 wave movement or pattern. For the past days sense I posted my first idea to current time of this post... ( See my pasted idea of EURCAD linked to this post.) We have seen this pair in a consolation from it near term highs just after the manufacturing ISM reported news. I fully expected the pair to make a 3 wave drop which usually happens following an EW 5 wave pattern. Instead we got this consolation. This leads me to believe we could still set a 5Th wave high and that this pattern isn’t completed just yet. I can also see a triangle forming because we have set lower highs and higher lows throughout this consolation period of time. ( triangle marked in pink lines ) Trade plan; I plan to trade the breakout higher or lower depending on what the market decides. If we break higher we could retest horizontal resistance zone around 1.4730-50 and that would be some 60-100 pips away. If we should get that move and then a rejection candle on a daily, then we could consider a 5Th wave top to be in place. However if we break lower from the current triangle in pink we could run again some 60-100 pips or even more, your guess is as good as mine. Truth be told though, a pattern build up like the consolation pattern in pink lines will break one way or the other. I prefer it to see it break higher first. Because should that happen the downward move after the 5Th wave will be a bigger move and should be in 3 waves, giving plenty of opportunities to go short with size of position. It’s all about seeing potential future moves and positioning for that move before it really takes off. If you trade these ideas the risk is all yours. Your comments or ideas are most welcome. In trading you either make dust or you will eat dust. All the best in your trades.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
10-9-19 USDCAD on the verge?Another Forex Trading Snack. I’ve been following the USDCAD for sometime looking and waiting for a great opportunity to possibly trade it. But for some time it hasn’t followed oil, or the other commodity currencies. Currently though it has made a very good looking bullish Flag pattern inside of a bigger triangle, which happens to be inside of a even bigger triangle. I know patterns in side of patterns... the flag pattern looks to have broken higher and looks to be very close to also breaking over the next patterned triangle marked in pink lines. ( flag pattern in gray lines ) Here is the daily landscape view... Now that the chart views are setup, here is what I’m looking for and hoping to do. I’d like to place an order to trade on the daily close to or just above the 1.3350 area. This will have broken not only the small flag pattern but also the pink daily triangle pattern, and this should target the 1.35 ish area or very close to the even bigger black triangle area. That’s the setup and what I believe should be a higher probability trade if and when.... Here is the rub. USDCAD of late has had a habit of having a false break or two and then exploding forward past those false break points. Just look at the gray patterned flag. Knowing this and where we are in the current price action, along with the China trade talks restarting again on the 11th, any positive news or a deal of some limited kind, and this could break higher. Now you know how I’m viewing it and looking at the landscape of this pair. If you trade this idea you are also assuming all risk of loss if there should be any. This is not trading advice, but for training purposes or an education on how I personally try to setup trades. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. I’d hope you would rather stay out front and be making dust! All the best my trading warriors.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
NZDUSD inverted H&S ??Here is another Forex Trading Snack NZDUSD fell below the 2015 low ( indicated by the black horizontal line) but bounced just as quickly back above. Thus tells me that that level might be of interest of larger position holders. What makes this very interesting is the weekly candles. Moving back to the shorter 4H charts I saw this inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. Well it looks like that’s the pattern at least. Until the neck line is broken it’s just a possible pattern building. If I were to play this pattern, I’d place a stop buy just above the neckline, placing my stop according to one’s risk tolerances under the neck line. The target to the up side would be measured at the same distance from the head to the neck and project that same distance from the neck line up to its limit ( 0.6400 ish ) If you chose to trade this idea you assume all risk of loss if any. This is not trading advice, but should be used as training or educational purposes. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best my trading warriors.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
Day trade USDJPY longWell the blue top channel trend line held once again on this pair. It is a weekly channel top trend and until it’s broken and held the path of least resistance is higher. Add into the mix traders, and thus the market is looking forward and wanting something positive out of the Trump China trade war front. With meetings at the end of this week 10-11-13-19 I can see JPY drifting higher and then when the meetings get under way for real the pair should trade more nervously. With today’s impulsive push higher and a break of a small hourly triangle, the up side target on the triangle break should be around 107.60-80ish. Near term horizontal support is close to the break out point 107.00-107.20 I’ve git orders out and looking to play this into Asia’s market opening. If you trade, the risk is all yours. Thus isn’t meant to be trade advice. In trading you either make dust or you will eat dust. All the best my trading friends.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
ISM disappointment & Trading the aftermath! Here is another Forex Trading Snack! I try to post up higher probability trade ideas in my opinion according to my own style of trading. If this also matches yours. Great!! Allow me to just say, this idea is both long and short trade plays in one pattern and trading idea. Full disclosure; I’m already short at 107.75 When news hits and markets react to it, it is usually impulsive. A knee jerk reaction! The EW 5 wave setups when found in the markets is usually a really good indicator of such market reactions. If you’ve gotten lucky enough or are talented in finding such trades beforehand and gotten into a trade that is an impulsive move, that suddenly slows down. Check to see if there is a wave count ( a EW 5 wave price structure) because just getting out and feeling lucky is fine. But then if there is a 5th wave pattern you would have left some pips on the table, not to mention a reversal trade opportunity. A disappointing ISM number and the USDJPY that I’ve been trading long, suddenly reversed building a great small timeframe EW 5 wave structure. It somewhat easy for me to spot. First you see a small down turn and an attempt to retake the swing high. The wave 1 and 2 price structure. Then this is followed by a huge or at the very least a very long ( in this case ) price drop, which is again followed by shorter price movements trying to push against the tide. Any reversal in price is shallower and can hold this price action for some time. This usually happens when one market closes for the day and before another opens. In this case NY closed and Asia hasn’t even had the opportunity to see the ISM report or the markets short term reaction to it because it’s still closed. This is exactly why I believe another short downward push is coming. Marking the 5th and the final wave of the EW pattern. In addition to EW 5 wave patterns usually mark the end of a trend and are usually followed by a 3 wave move that is slower in movement. Thus price action suggest the market is digesting the news before moving in the direction market players believe the news will impact economies. My trade plan is to go short USDJPY and have done so at 107.75 with stops above 108.00 and my target of 10740-60 My target being at a support level and so a good bounce and an ending to a 5Th wave level. If this is a 5Th wave structured pattern we are looking to take advantage of a small short and then reversing the trade close to support for a ride back up into the recent broken up channel that was broken due to the ISM news. Markets that move off impulsive reactions often over react. This is a strategy for exactly such market conditions. Bring that this pattern is on a very small timeframe chart, I’m trading it with less lot sizes and tighter stops. Remember if you trade any ideas presented, you are also assuming the risk of loss on your own. This is not advice. Past performance doesn’t mean future successes. Landscape view of my chart. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best traders.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
Wash, rinse, and repeat trade! 9-25-19 EURGBP So I often see setups of past moves repeated in smaller timeframes. A lot of people might think a small timeframe trade setup needs eyeball attention thus your time applied to charts and screen time. True or not, it’s a traders choice. Besides patterns just jump out at you at times, so, trade what the market gives you... is what I say. On lower portion of this chart we see the lower setup and price action that is very similar to the upper pattern. Only differences are the size of the pattern. I still see it as a playable and still possible higher move in the pair.. after all strong momentum in between 2 levels of side ways price action says buyers in this case are still coming in as well as previous buyers are still holding on for more and not allowing price to come down much. The pink lines define a sideways price action. I placed pink line just above the upper level of each of the ranges. As well as a lower one. If your looking to place a momentum trade as prices pushes up and over the upper pink line at some point in the near future, then place a order just above the pink line. I’d also set a stop just below the lower range pink line. Placing a stop is important because false breaks do happen. That’s one way to play this... Another way is to place a order close to the smaller bottom pink line that is just below the bottom longer pink line. That line is at the 50 EMA moving average. Current price is above that price, however that EMA is often a point where price changes direction after it is challenged and then continues in the longer trends direction. Being that we are a few hours before the Asia markets open often there can be a sudden move due to low liquidity in the markets at that time of day. Should such a move happen we could capture a better long position price. Of course you’d set a stop appropriate to your own risk tolerances in either case or strategy. Number 3 way is to set orders up on both points using smaller size to accommodate again for personal preferences, style of trade, and or account size. By placing multiple orders at different points in or around a targeted area The overall orders might give you a better average price. That and no one really knows where short term tops or bottoms are and so entry prices might get filled or might leave you on the sidelines as a spectator to a move you found to be a high probability—-that also then became reality! Targets should as always should be at least 2 X your stop size. If you decide to trade this idea or any idea the risk of loss is always yours. Because there is no sure thing in trading and trading is very risky, plan your trades and only then trade your plan. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best in your trades.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
9-25-19 and CADJPY offers a clean EW 5 wave setupAnd here is another Forex Trading Snack. This pair is offering up one of the cleanest Elliott Wave 5 wave setups right now. I usually post this kind of setups as EW 5 wave. On the chart we have additionally a down sloping channel pattern that is slow in price movement and has over lapping price action forming the wave 3 down to wave 4 in the pattern. This kind of price action often breaks in the over all larger trend. Should that happen the 5 th wave could reach as high as 82.50 to 83.00 some 100 or more pips from current price. I’ve been tracking this pattern for days now, and trading it every time it hits the lower channel support— but as of now still no break higher. All I can say is I believe it coming and will break higher when most of us aren’t paying attention or looking for the break. Once again, my strategy is set a order accordingly to your trade plan. Then live life! When you get the chance check back in on it. Or better yet set an alarm around your order price, that way you will get an alert that a trade is about to go live. If you trade any idea, the risk of loss is all yours. In trading you either make dust or you will eat dust. All the best in your trades.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
9-25-19 USDJPY bullish breakout Here is another Forex Trading Snack. There is always a bit of confusion with new traders who haven’t yet settled in on a type of trader they would like to become. Most trader newbies are having to balance trading with other sources of income and a family life a well. Many tend to trade in a scalpers mode for shorter times in the markets. Yet one of the frustrations with such a style is often coming back to check in on the markets only to see a major run that had happened already. This happened to me a lot because I needed some daily sleep and my time zone places me at a disadvantage to the best time of day to trade. The solution for me was combing two styles of trading together as one. Now it happens to be for me this way also complements my personality, so it even better—win, win! My posts, or my ideas and explanations should reflect this style of trading, and also show how traders can anticipate types of moves off different things found in the markets everyday. Thus allowing individual traders to build a strategy in trading these moves successfully. My trade idea with USDJPY is rather simple. The pair yesterday tested the weekly down channel ( blue lines ) as well as the daily channel ( lines in pink) and broke back above both with price momentum. This tells me higher prices are a higher probability moving forward in time. My strategy is to buy in the red box area or zone or as close to it as we can. Setting our stops just below our average buying price, and those for mentioned broken channels which now should offer some support. Our first target is 108.60 area a major resistance zone, leaving room for a second bit of our orders to run passed if this area should break higher. Using the zones I’ve outlined here the risk levels should be 20-50 pips risk With a 100-150 pips of reward Because we are looking for a short term pullback from current prices at the time of this post. I believe we should have 8-24 hours of time till such a order and trade might become a live trade. But nothing is certain I’m placing orders out within my outlined plan. Doing this allows me freedom to get away from my screen without losing out on opportunity. So I can now go out and live life away from my computer screen I only need to monitor or check in every hour or two to see how things are progressing or if things need readjusting. An easy thing to do from my mobile device. As always if you decide to trade this idea the risk of loss if any is all yours. In trading you either make dust or you will eat dust. All the best in your trading.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
Forex Vs. straight line moves and grooves. Here is another Forex Trading Snack. It’s easy to post up any trade idea as it happening or just after the best opportunity has come and is now gone. Here is an idea before it has become a filled order or trade. The trade before it a trade! Someone once told me, in Forex trading straight line moves usually to a great trader equals taking a calculated counter trend position opposite to that straight line move. Because nothing moves in straight lines for long. In other words, in seeing moves like this and then aligning one’s self up with the trend or the changing trend equals a higher probability opportunity. I can see new traders saying but my candles on my chart really aren’t all that straight in my view.... There is no wrong or right in different traders looking at the same chart. The differences usually are in seeing high probability opportunities within the same view, and this comes by seeing things that you have kept statistics on and you also know what the statistical probabilities are. All of that comes easier with experience. EURNZD has broken down out of a up trend 4H channel. The move has been ( at least on my chart ) in a longer straight-ish line out of the channel and right into a support zone. For my trading likes, this points to a top in trend price action and a newly set lower low. The lower low tells me a new trend is setting up. As to how long the trend will be or how long it lasts... well it anybody’s guess. Trading isn’t about guessing but seeing a potential move before it happens and getting into position to capture that move utilizing good practice of risk reward according to your trading plan. If you want to trade successfully you will need to build a personal trading plan according to your personality and risk tolerances. Without a personal plan... your a gambler!! My idea is to wait for a bounce. Maybe it does, or maybe it doesn’t bounce. Here is my trade idea and look. I set orders according to my idea and walk away from that screen till the end of the day NY trade. At that time we reevaluate or readjust. This style of trade might have some of you just plain scared. I have to set a bigger stop, some say. Usually they say this because they are wrongly focused on the potential negative account impact, or they are trading with to much leverage or they have failed to build a personal trading plan, or all of the above! How ever, just looking at this idea.... would you say it’s a good exchange to be willing to trade 40-60 pips loss for a chance to gain 100-200-300 pips in return?? You know, I like living life! Being tied to a computer screen trying to trade, to me isn’t a better, or more enjoyable life now or for some dream in the future. I love to have as much or more freedom with my life’s time currently.... but then those are some of the things that are important to me while I journey towards my dream. A trader only needs to plan for that kind of a life. The secret is, if you trade less, only trade high probability trades, except a tad bit larger stop loss limits ( hey here is another way to look at it. If I was trading smaller stops but tied to the screen and took 3 small stops, let’s say 20 pip losses—isn’t that the same impact to the account if I only took one trade with a 60 pip stop....But also wasn’t tied to the screen??) then you’ll also be focusing on finding the best high probability trade setups. It’s a trade off within the mind as to what strategy or life style you want to use in your trading life. As always, if you trade any ideas, you also assume all risk of loss. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best in your trading.
Short
by PipsTradingClub