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Macro Monday 24~New York Empire State Manufacturing Index MACRO MONDAY 24 The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index Trading View Ticker: $USNYESM The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (NYESM Index) is a month to month economic indicator that measures the general business conditions in the manufacturing sector of New York State. It is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is based on a survey of 200 executives from the largest manufacturing firms in the state of New York. The top six manufacturing states in the U.S. are California, Texas, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and then New York. Whilst New York is only ranked the 7th largest state in terms of manufacturing jobs, the state is strong in pharmaceutical manufacturing, printing and publishing, and electronics, with some of the top tier manufacturing companies including big names such as Pfizer, IBM, Lockheed Martin and L3Harris Technologies. Total output from manufacturing in New York was $75.24 billion in 2021. In comparison total output from manufacturing by the largest manufacturing state in the US - California was $394.83 billion in 2021, magnitudes larger than New York. So whilst the New York Manufacturing Index holds some weight in terms of its reputation, location and large well known firms, it is a smaller index and it should be considered in combination with other indexes/metrics to assess the broader economic picture. How to Read the Index As with many of the survey led indexes, it is a diffusion index that oscillates above and below the 0 level. Above 0 suggests manufacturing activity is expanding, below zero means manufacturing activity is contracting. The Chart In today’s chart will also attempt to see how good the NYESM Index has been at predicting general market performance/direction using the S&P500 CBOE:SPX as a market gauge: 1. One of the main findings on the chart is that 7 out of the 8 times the NYESI fell below 0 for longer than 2 months (shaded areas) the S&P500 moved lower or did not increase in price. - This suggests that in the event the NYESM Index falls below 0 for greater than 2 months there is a higher probability that market performance will be impaired. 2. The one time the S&P500 increased whilst the NYESM Index was below 0 for greater than 2 months was from July 2022 to present. - The index during this period was very volatile jumping briefly above the 0 level before falling under it again (see the red box). It is the only time in history that this occurred on the index. One could compare it to a sector gasping for air above the 0 level over that period, however the S&P500 was rallying hard as the index gasped for air. This highlights the need to review other indexes and charts, and not rely solely on the NYESM Index in isolation. One such additional index that might shed some light on the S&P500 rally during point 2 above is the relative strength of the ISM Services PMI which has remained in expansionary territory throughout the same period. The Services Index is designed to measure the economic activity and health of the services sector in the United States some of which are professional services (accounting, legal, etc.), healthcare (hospitals, clinics & other practitioners), accommodation, leisure and food services. One could imagine with everyone cooped up during COVID-19, the resilience in the services metric could help explain the resilience in the market with people enjoying more experience orientated activities. We covered ISM Services Vs ISM Manufacturing on Macro Monday 22 which you can check below in the attaching links. The ISM metrics cover all areas of the U.S. and are considered a more all-encompassing measure of manufacturing and services in the U.S. Regardless looking at individual states such as California, Texas and New York can provide clues and insights into the overall trend. Current Readings & Expectations The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index increased from Sept to Oct 2023 demonstrating a sharp rise from -4.6% to +9.1% pushing the Index into expansionary territory. Expectations for this Fridays release is a reduction of 7.1% resulting in a reading of 2 for the month of Nov 2023. This would still be expansionary for manufacturing in NY State but a reduction all the same, demonstrating less manufacturing to the prior month. Lets see how the Index performs this Friday. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USNYESMI
by PukaCharts
XAU/USD 13-18.08.2023FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Hello traders, I am looking for more short positions on gold in the upcoming weeks. Last week, we observed a significant strength in the DXY (US Dollar Index) and a break above the bearish trendline. Additionally, there were notable wicks on the last two daily candles for XAU/USD. My plan involves waiting for a push up during the London session and then entering a short position during the New York session. I've identified a resistance area around 1930 as my entry zone. If the price closes a candle above the yellow zone, I would consider that area as invalidated, and my stop loss would be placed above the 61% Fibonacci level. For take profit, I'm targeting a few pips before the -27% Fibonacci level, which aligns well with a support level. Please note that trading involves risks, and it's essential to closely monitor market conditions and news events. Best of luck with your trading strategy!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by NeptenFX
NYT to find buyers at previous support?New York Times Co - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 38.73 (stop at 37.53) Daily signals are bullish. Previous support located at 39. We look to buy dips. Broken out of the channel formation to the upside. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 41.73 and 42.23 Resistance: 39.83 / 40.47 / 40.73 Support: 39.00 / 38.00 / 37.50 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
NYSE:NYTLong
by VantageMarkets