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Kiwibank Lowers Kiwi ForecastThe New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) has slipped below its 25-day exponential moving average (EMA) and could potentially test the 50-day EMA next. But, can sellers maintain the momentum and push further into bearish territory? Kiwibank is betting on more downside due to faster and deeper rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). However, their initial bearish outlook has softened somewhat. "In our previous FX Tactical, we anticipated the Kiwi heading towards the 0.5700 mark. But given its reluctance to trade down to that level, we've adjusted our expectations. While we still believe the Kiwi should be lower, it's clear the 0.5700 target is less likely. At this point, 0.5900 seems a more reasonable level," the bank stated. Further complicating the outlook is China’s influence. Like the Australian dollar, the Kiwi can find support from economic developments in China. Talks of a potential stimulus package from Beijing had initially buoyed market sentiment, but UBS remains unimpressed. The investment bank noted that the scale of China's recent measures falls short of previous stimulus efforts, which historically triggered strong market rallies. Economists cited by The Wall Street Journal share this view, pointing out that borrowing costs are already low, yet demand for credit remains sluggish. Consumer confidence, dragged down by concerns over jobs and the ongoing property market meltdown, remains near historic lows.
by BlackBull_Markets
Did you miss out on the surprise NZD/USD trade? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, sending the New Zealand dollar plunging by 1% against the U.S. dollar. The move caught markets off guard, as most analysts had anticipated the central bank would hold rates steady until at least its next meeting. Today wasn’t supposed to be the day, but these are the moments traders eagerly anticipate to capitalize on sudden market shifts. The RBNZ's decision underscores a growing trend among central banks, signaling a potential global shift in monetary policy. This early rate cut hints that central banks may be increasingly focused on fostering economic growth and ensuring a soft landing amid weakening economies. The big question now: Will the Federal Reserve follow suit? The NZD/USD had been on an upward trajectory for nearly two weeks, but that rally has now reversed. The pair has broken above the 200-day moving average and is nearing the 50-day as well. The key support zone around 0.5850, which has held since last September, could now be in play, with a closer pivot point near 0.5980.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZDUSD - Top Down Analysis (ICT)Quite interesting chart on NZDUSD. I give my analysis and opinion on what is likely to transpire next. Let's see what happens today (Friday) as I'm expecting the weekly to close below certain levels if I am correct in price coming for the SSL first. However, it may not happen today as there is no high impact news offering a catalyst for a manipulative move lower. We could see a weak close lower and then more aggressive action on PPI and CPI next week. Again, this is under the assumption that my bias of price wanting to go for the SSL first is correct. - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
2
NZD Outlook: ANZ’s Forecast for Next Week NZD Outlook: ANZ’s Forecast for Next Week ANZ anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will maintain its current interest rates at the August 14 meeting but may signal potential rate cuts before the year ends. Although ANZ estimates a small 10-15% chance that the RBNZ might shift to an easing bias during this coming meeting. Markets are currently pricing in 89 basis points of cuts by November 2024 and 222 basis points by November 2025. However, ANZ is cautioning against expecting such drastic moves and that markets could be disappointed with this reflected in market volatility if the RBNZ doesn't deliver. A key level to watch on the downside is April’s low which has twice served as a support level in recent weeks, rebuffing sellers. NZD/USD is currently moving higher, nearing the 100 SMA on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that momentum remains strong, with the potential for a softer unemployment claim report from the US influencing the pair’s short-term direction.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
NZDUSD: Technical Pressure Mounts Amid Weak Trade DataNZDUSD – technical overview Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action. R2 0.6154 – 8 July high – Strong R1 0.6098 – 17 July high – Medium S1 0.5942 – 3 May low – Medium S2 0.5900 – Figure – Strong NZDUSD – fundamental overview On the surface, New Zealand trade data produced a solid headline reading. However, at closer glance, the underlying components were distressing, with both imports and exports declining outright. This along with an ongoing slide in commodities prices proved to be a big weight on the New Zealand Dollar. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone consumer confidence, US existing home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
NZDUSD: Profit taking into RBNZ decisionNZDUSD – technical overview Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action. R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium S1 0.6048 – 2 July low – Medium S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong NZDUSD – fundamental overview There is no change expected from the RBNZ today, though we have seen profit taking into the event risk. We've also seen some Kiwi selling on the New Zealand Treasury's reporting of weaker sales, with consumers experiencing hardship. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD Finds Support Amidst Economic HeadwindsNew Zealand Dollar Finds Support Amidst Economic Headwinds The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has recently discovered support at 0.6090, a critical area marked by previous support levels. This zone features two major supports, the 200-day moving average, and a dynamic trendline, potentially acting as obstacles to further declines. The presence of the 50% Fibonacci level adds an additional layer of potential resistance. Despite these technical factors, the Kiwi faces challenges, as New Zealand's Business PMI and Visitor Arrivals failed to provide the anticipated support. The support zone at 0.6090 holds significance, with multiple key elements converging to create a formidable barrier against further downward movements. The 200-day moving average, dynamic trendline, and the 50% Fibonacci level collectively act as dynamic supports, suggesting a potential reversal in the NZD's trajectory. Market Sentiment Influence: Amidst the challenging economic backdrop, improved market sentiment on the last Friday provided a glimmer of support to the Kiwi. Moderate advances in most European markets and positive Wall Street futures weighed on the Safe-haven USD, indirectly bolstering the NZD. New Zealand Economic Challenges: However, economic data from New Zealand presented a less optimistic picture. Business activity deteriorated in December, and visitor arrivals experienced a significant decline compared to the same period last year. This unfavorable data poses challenges for the Kiwi's strength. Upcoming Events and Outlook: In the upcoming US calendar, market participants will closely watch the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, expected to show moderate improvement. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will conclude the week with her insights. Our Outlook: Despite the economic headwinds, our outlook for the NZD leans towards a new bullish impulse. The strong correlation with the EUR, coupled with the possibility of a decrease in US power, suggests potential upside for the Kiwi. Traders should carefully monitor economic indicators, central bank communications, and global market sentiment to make informed decisions in this evolving landscape. Conclusion: As the New Zealand Dollar navigates a challenging economic environment, the support at 0.6090 presents a potential turning point. While economic data reflects headwinds, the influence of market sentiment and the correlation with the EUR could contribute to a bullish resurgence for the NZD. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies to the evolving dynamics of the currency markets. Our preference Long positions Above 0.59500 with targets at 0.62500 & 0.63500 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
NZDCAD: Confluence Zone & Your Trading Plan 🇳🇿🇨🇦 NZDCAD is testing an important confluence zone: I spotted a perfect match between a horizontal key level and a falling trend line. For a confirmation, watch a double top pattern on 1H time frame. We need a breakout of its neckline as a trigger. Hourly candle close below 0.8356 will confirm a violation. A bearish continuation will be expected to 0.83 level then. If the price sets a new high, the setup will become invalid. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
11
✨ ADD-ON: NZDJPY ✨ AGGRESSIVE SHORT (2D) ✨TIMELINE 00:00 Intro 00:52 DCA Entries, TPs, SLs 03:48 Technical Analysis for Novices 08:20 Technical Analysis for the Pros 10:55 BIG PICTURE (21D) 12:27 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join -SL @ 90.00 🚫 SLO2 @ 89.33 ⏳(21D) SLO1 @ 89.00 ⏳ (2D) SSO @ 88.33 ⏳ (2D) TP1 @ 87.80 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 86.80 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 86.15 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 84.90 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 1.1475 (closing ALL Sell Orders) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS A few oscillators appear to be showing some bearish momentum on the NZDJPY chart. For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is NEUTRAL, which is a sign of bearish momentum. Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator is also NEUTRAL at its 14-day moving average, which signals increased distribution. Both are hinting towards selling pressure. WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
by ProfessorCEWard
NZDCAD ideaNZDCAD trend is bearish. But for now, this pair is on a demand area. 0.826 to 0.830 range area, so if we want to prepare to buy this currency, we must wait for the change of this downward trend to an upward trend, in this case breaking descending channel and breaking 0.8369 level as a resistance and pullback to this level can be prepared to a buy opportunity. But if we don't consider the demand area and give more credit to the descending channel and sellers' pressure, the price reaching the 0.833 area can be attractive for reselling. In this case, the next demand area at 0.815 rates can be your Take profit.
by Alisabbaghi
💵Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar 💵Analyze (10/05/2022)!!!Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar succeeded in making Bullish a 🦇Bat🦇 Harmonic Pattern near the trend line. I expect the Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar will go UP at least to the resistance zone. 🔅Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar ( AUDNZD) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
2