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Newzealand

NZD: Current sentiment driversLatest developments: March 14 – The RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at a record low of 0.25% and asset purchases at NZ$100 billion as expected. Once again, the RBNZ kept further easing on the table and reaffirmed their commitment to easy policy, stating that prolonged stimulus would be needed to get employment and inflation to desired levels. March 17 – GDP for Q4 printed at -1.0% Q/Q and -0.9% Y/Y. Commenting on the contraction in economic activity, Capital Economics stated “The modest solid decline in activity in Q4 reflects the fading of pent up demand and means that in New Zealand a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1.” November 3 – For Q4, the Unemployment Rate in New Zealand printed below consensus at 4.9% from 5.3% in Q3. Additionally, Employment Change printed at 0.6% versus market consensus of 0.0%. January 21 – Inflation for Q4 saw CPI Y/Y remain unchanged at 1.4% while CPI Q/Q printed at 0.5% from a prior of 0.7%. Future sentiment shifts: Due to its high beta status, NZD’s performance over recent months has been strongly correlated with the market’s overall risk tone, with the currency weakening substantially as markets sold off and strengthening as the risk tone recovered and turned positive. Recent global data has been encouraging, continuing to support NZD and the overall risk tone; although, the ongoing spread of the virus throughout the world and second waves in many countries still pose significant risks. For a fundamental improvement in NZD’s outlook and bias, there will need to be an easing of concerns surrounding the spread of the coronavirus (which appears likely given the vaccine rollout). However, even then, NZD upside could become an uphill battle with many analysts arguing the currency is approaching overvalued levels.
by thunderpips
NZD - CENTRAL BANK ANALYSISObjective: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989 identifies the RBNZ's economic objectiveas achieving and maintaining stability in the general level of prices over the medium term. In April 2019, the Act was amended to also include supporting maximum sustainable employment. In 1990, the RBNZ became the first central bank to formally adopt inflation targeting which as of 2012 is 1-3%. As of Q4, inflation in New Zealand stands at 1.4%, unchanged from Q3. The Unemployment Rate for Q4 stands at 4.9%, compared to 5.3% for Q3. Situation: At their February meeting, the RBNZ left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 0.25%, and its large scale asset purchase (LSAP) programme at NZ$100 billion until June 2022. The central bank kept future rate cuts on the table, noting that the outlook is uncertain with several factors currently supporting economic activity likely to be temporary. However, the RBNZ also upgraded its forecasts for inflation and trade weighted index for NZD and concluded that resilience in the domestic economy implies no significant additional stimulus is currently required.
by thunderpips
2
NZD - WEAK BULLISHThe primary drivers for NZD are its high-beta status and the RBNZ's monetary policy outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook. However, regarding NZD's monetary policy outlook, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes have been pushed back.
by thunderpips
2
MCK Hotel Stock priced how it was 4 years ago - Awaiting AR ?This stock has decent fundamentals with a discounted cash flow valuation at around 70% undervalued at its current price of $1.77 at this time of writing. This company owns hotels all around the world and their market cap is above EV, their Book Value per Share in 2019 is at 6.78 and I suggest you find out the other fundamentals by yourself. Anyways, my opinion is that the market has priced in the Covid19 effects on this stock since this company is obviously extremely exposed to the effects of covid19 (lockdowns, border closed, etc...) since they rely heavily on tourism. However the company's latest annual report was for end of December 2019, and they do not seem to issue interim reports. Therefore we do not understand how much covid19 has actually impacted this company's financials just yet, so... Could this be a golden opportunity to keep an eye out for until their next report is released? What if covid19 has not effected their financial's as bad as the market has decided ? Their price at $1.77 is the price it was 4 years ago. Thats all for now from me. Food for thought!
NZX:MCK
by WineTrader888