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Newzealand

ridethepig | NZD Price Dissection [Live]As we approach the 0.660x handle it is time to take profits from our shorts, well done those following from the entire process from the previous diagrams: All of this is taking place while inside the Macro swing: The radius of our flows has been secure in a wide territory. This could also be considered a base formation in a sense of the word. The major play is to the topside for 1H20 as Dollar devaluation is the underlying theme. A lack of space prevented us from reaching all the way to the topside in the macro target, so we had to briefly pause for a few zig-zag range trading formations. This is a superb live example of trading fast flows and forcing short-term moves. Good luck all those positioning in NZDUSD for the coming weeks, I hope these short-term charts have proven helpful.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZD Retail Sales FlowWith retail sales out in NZ tonight it is a good time for a short-term flow update. It to me seems a poor choice of moment to advance for bulls, extending the lows after a retest of the 0.6645/60 sell zone with a weak print tonight makes more sense to me. This would be in accordance with the needs of the flow. The 2020 macro map takes on the retrace leg, but another sweep of the lows would be a more reliable guardian. Here recommending longs into the 0.6645/60 resistance as a good opportunity to sell the headline and mount a last attack for the penetration of the lows. We will update the chart should we see the highs visited today. Good luck all those trading Retail sales, after the distortion around last months print it is highly likely in my books that we see a soft undershoot tonight. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Long
by ridethepig
8
Buying AUDNZD Aggressively !!A timely update to the previous AUDNZD weekly chart and after completing the initial selloff we are set for a major leg to the topside. Before we dig into the Fundamental and Technical side I recommend for those following to start by reviewing the previous charts to understand how and why we are trading the lows: On the AUD side, markets are pricing an RBA move in Q120 with 50bps cut 60% priced in. Should see some unwinding for those outguessing a surprise like we did with RBNZ. Australian surpluses is providing a mattress to AUD as the historically low yield pick-up is allows deficits to be financed. Perhaps what is most interesting of all and highlights the underlying shift towards the USD devaluation / reflationary theme comes from real money managers who have started to take profits on their AUD shorts after RBA delivered in June & July are once again reaching extremes and ready to unwind again. On the NZD side, NZD is not expected to outperform AUD however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. Markets have reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which is what has supported NZD in the short-medium term. For the fiscal side, we had highlights going overnight to NZ announcing a big round of fiscal spending. Markets have since gone overboard selling AUDNZD. In any case, here is the NZDUSD map for 2020: For the technicals I am tracking an impulsive swing to the highs after markets completed plumbing the 1.03xx lows via NZ fiscal flows (a mouthful). Those with a background in waves will know we have market the lows in a multi year 5 wave sequence which we traded live here: ….and can lean on the AUD macro directional side: Lastly for those following NZDCAD and AUDCAD flows are sitting comfortably in profits and can let the rest run for our final targets: Best of luck all those trading the lows and buying dips. Please keep your support coming with likes and jump into the conversation comments with your views and charts as usual!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 2019.11.29Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there continues to be further upside: For AUDNZD flows, for the most part of 2019 the market has been heavily short NZD, and the NZD short cleansing pullback is likely to continue if regional growth and trade improves. Watching risk sentiment closely, with AUDJPY and NZDJPY coming to life intraday and with the power to drive the commodity currencies on other crosses. On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD: As previously mentioned, confidence for those betting on the topside has increased dramatically after cracking 1.0620, watch closely for follow-throughs here into 2020 after the NZD outperformance theme fades away. Best of luck those already in positions and those looking to build swing positions into 2020. ...Please remember to keep the support coming with likes and comments!
by ridethepig