#NZDJPY: Japanese Yen is taking NO prisoners!OANDA:NZDJPY
Observations:
1)NZ$ is overextended
2)BoJ 'fake news' about Kuroda talking about Japan's inflation are not 'fake' 100% things may be picking up.
3)Yields are @#$#Q@%$# serious disconnect between reality and Spot price behavior.
Trading Mantra: "Never risk the house for pennies."
Newzealanddolar
POSSIBLE REVERSAL IN NZDCHF - DAILY CHARTHi Folks!
Looking for a possible reversal according to some Elliott rules and criteria. If we are right we will have an ABC expanded flat which will develop a new daily impulse. Let's see how it develops, too early to plan any entries.
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Hola Amigos!
Buscando una posible reversión de acuerdo con reglad y criterios de la teoría de Elliott. Si estamos en lo cierto tendremos un ABC "Expanded Flat" que desarrollará un nuevo impulso en Daily. Veamos como se desarrolla, demasiado pronto para planear entradas.
Carlos
NZD/USD Analysis for Week 24DISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
Ok everyone so this week Im gonna step away from one of the pairs that I usually trade. Mostly because I had a good experience with this pair last week and I want to try it out this week. So here we go...
Weekly:
On the weekly charts we see some serious resistance area around 0.73818. There have been small breakouts but I dont consider them too important seeing as how the candles closed below those peaks. There is also a support line formed starting from August 24th of 2015. Making higher lows thus making an uptrend and forming an ascending wedge.
Daily:
Here we can see a little better that resistance area being held around 0.73458. There is also a resistance-turned-support area around 0.72442. Price also closed below the MA this friday. This along with the rejection from that resistance area, could be a sign that the price will retrace. I would probably look to short this pair.
4hr:
Ok on this 4hr we see the price has tapped the MA but still unable to break it. A bearish trenline seems to be forming here.
I will look at the 1hr chart on my own in order to look for entries and will look to short this pair.
AUDNZD: Are Buyers Ready to Give Up 1.0765?The AUDNZD is currently trading at levels last seen on March 3rd. That was the session that broke the 1.0765 handle, a level that had capped four separate advances since May of last year.
Today’s intraday breakdown comes on the heels of more dovish than expected meeting minutes from the RBA. The relative strength of the New Zealand dollar over the past five sessions certainly isn’t helping the case for a bullish AUDNZD either.
However, I want to stress that today’s break of 1.0765 has yet to be confirmed. In other words, until the session closes at 5 pm EST, there’s too much ambiguity to call this one way or the other.
As always, the market will make the final decision. I would, however, be surprised if buyers give up the 1.0765 handle so quickly. This is a level that held as resistance for ten straight months, so to give it up as new support would be a bit of a surprise and a clear sign of weakness.
But for now, the fate of this potential bull flag pattern is unclear. And given the recent breakdown on the Australian dollar, it will likely take a weaker kiwi for the pair to recover above 1.0765 before today’s close.
If buyers succeed, it will still take a break above channel resistance near 1.0860/70 to confirm the continuation pattern. Above that, the pair would have about 400 pips to run, which is why I’m still interested to see what happens over the coming sessions.
The Kiwi Bulls AwakeWe have finally reached the golden zone for a buy. I mentioned reaching this area in my previous post. As the week went by we saw the Dollar Index decline and this pair was doing the exact opposite of what it was supposed to do. The bulls allowed the bears to slowly bring price down to the .69300 area. That is the perfect place for a long term buy. for now i expect the pair to show signs of a retracement, followed by a strong push up.
Place your buys in now cause we wont see the .70 zone for a while.
(for more frequent trade signals contact us via message)
EURNZD: Awaiting Confirmation to SellApart from the yen, I don’t trade currency crosses very often. The price action can be choppy, and the spreads can sometimes be problematic if you aren’t careful.
However, if used sparingly, a cross like the EURNZD can offer opportunities where the potential reward is well worth the risk. Last week’s move may have given us one such opportunity.
Within the first 48 hours of activity last week, the pair traded to a high of 1.5483. The last time the Euro cross hit this mark was during the U.S. elections spike on November 9th of last year.
From the intraday charts, it looked as though buyers were determined to push prices even higher. But by the March 28th close, those same buyers had retreated in a way that they carved out a bearish pin bar from the 1.5450 resistance area.
The next three sessions were met with enough selling pressure to rechallenge 1.5215 support. In fact, Friday appears to have broken this level, which was instrumental in triggering the March 21st advance.
But there is one important question that needs answering before I’ll be ready to call this a confirmed setup.
Did last Friday break support at 1.5210?
If it did, we should see today’s session close (5 pm EST) below this area. If on the other hand, the pair closes today back above 1.5210, I’ll stand aside to see what comes of the next 24 to 48 hours.
One reason I need additional confirmation is that Friday was the last day of March as well as the end of the first quarter of 2017. For the uninitiated, the price action from these sessions can sometimes be unreliable, particularly when it lands on a Friday as volume tends to dry up.
As always, I’m in no hurry to trade the pair. But with more than 200 pips to the next key support at 1.50, the EURNZD is certainly one I’ll continue to watch.
NZDUSD: Watching 0.7040 for Directional CuesExactly one week ago the NZDUSD closed the day back above the 0.7040/5 area. The break came after the March 15th rally fell short of overcoming the region and the pair subsequently sold off on March 16th.
However, last Tuesday’s session appears to have closed back below 0.7040/5. This suggests that the Monday break above the area was a false move.
Furthermore, the final 72 hours of activity last week was once again capped by 0.7040/5 on a daily closing basis. The result was a weekly bearish pin bar, albeit not at a major swing high.
Fast forward to today, and we can see that buyers are once again challenging the level. But as you may well know, I don’t pay much attention to intraday breaks such as this. Where the pair closes the session at 5 pm EST is much more important.
For now, I’ll remain on the sideline until we have a clear indication of whether 0.7040/5 is holding as new resistance. If so, we could have a selling opportunity on our hands.
Otherwise, a close back above the area would pave the way for a retest of 0.7133. This level served as support on two occasions in the second half of February and again on March 1st.
NZDUSD Potential Range Break Opportunity This WeekThe NZDUSD could offer a range break opportunity this week. Despite gaining 125 pips following a more dovish than expected Fed, the pair fell short of overtaking the 0.7040 handle.
Buyers also just barely missed out on a weekly bullish engulfing pattern. But despite the near miss, the rally that started on Wednesday may not be done just yet.
In fact, given the technicals over the last few months, I’m favoring a break to the upside. However, I won’t enter until I see a daily close above 0.7040. Until that time comes, I’ll remain on the sideline.
If we do get a bullish break from this range, a move toward resistance at 0.7133 would be the likely outcome. This level served as support twice last month as well as the first day of March.
Key support for the week ahead comes in at Thursday’s low near 0.6970. This area served as a pivot in early January and is also the November 2016 low.
Downtrend ContinuationDISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, I'm new to trading and this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
This week I'm keeping my eyes on the Euro / New Zealand Dollar pair. Its been on a down trend for a while now and could be hitting structure from 2015. The channel looking beautiful. At the begging of the month (02/07/2017) the price hit a previous resistance price and bounced.
This past week we hit a bit of a side trend so now we are just waiting for a break. Meaning are we looking at the next new low? Or are we looking for a wave to continue the resistance line.
AUDNZD November Month Technical: Can RBNZ make wave 3 move?Talking Points:
AUDNZD Technical Strategy: Re-initiating Long position
Elliottwave Count: Reversal is in process after wave 2 completion
Analysis
AUDNZD is expecting to complete it's wave 2 correction @ 1.0350 after having an high over 1.0726. We were seen corrective move towards 1.0350 in expanded flat correction. We also had a nice bounce from channel support and horizontal support from 1.0350 levels. We are considering it's reversal trend and able to count five wave upwards move in lower time frame. Considering that analysis, we are targeting wave (iii) in coming months which can atleast target above 1.0726.
Action
We are re-initiating a long position again after had a handsome profit on long from Sept month at level 1.0337. We also defined entry, exit and stoploss criteria in trade signal section.