GBPNZD: Turning bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks.GBPNZD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.440, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 26.806), trading right over its 1D MA50. If broken, it will be the validation of the new bearish wave of the 1 year Channel Down. The 1D RSI is forming the very same Arc pattern as the May bearish wave. Upon validation, we will get short and aim for the 1D MA200, over the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 2.12500).
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Newzealanddollar
NZSDUSD Bottom of the 1-year Rectangle. Strong buy.The NZDUSD pair gave us a solid sell signal on our last idea (September 04, see chart below) as it respected the 1-year Rectangle pattern, stayed within its Resistance and Support levels and easily hit our 0.6000 Target:
The price hit yesterday the top of the 1-year Support Zone (0.58500) and is reacting today positively with the first green 1D candle in 6 days. The 1D RSI has double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold barrier as on April 14, so we have a strong case for going long with huge reward and limited risk. Notice how we are about to form a 1D Death Cross and the last two such patterns coincided with the bottoms on the Support Zone.
As a result, we are now long, targeting 0.6200, which is considerably below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that all previous Bullish Legs hit.
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NZDCHF Channel Down and Head and Shoulders driving it much lowerThe NZDCHF pair gave us a spot on buy signal last time we looked into it (August 23, see chart below) that easily hit the target and immediately after started a correction that broke the Channel Up to the downside:
What has emerged from that top is a Channel Down pattern, which made yesterday a new Lower High on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That's not all however. As you can see, this Lower High can technically be the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which makes the trend even more bearish.
The 1st Bearish Leg of the Channel Down reached a -4.55% decline, so another such Leg would price a Lower Low at 0.50255. This happens to be just above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is a standard target for H&S patterns. Our Target is marginally above both at 0.50500.
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NZDCAD Buy opportunity at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up.The NZDCAD pair hit our 0.85650 Target as discussed on our last idea (August 22, see chart below) and then got immediately rejected:
The rejection initiated the Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up and the price is approaching once more the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. The previous 2 Higher Lows were priced on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which is slightly below, but the 1D MACD is forming a Bullish Cross today, which has been an absolute buy signal this past year.
As a result, we turn bullish on this pair, targeting Resistance 1 at 0.86450.
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NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key FundamentalNZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key Fundamental Drivers (07/11/2024)
Overview
On 7th November 2024, NZDUSD is showing signs of a slight bullish bias, driven by key economic data releases and broader market sentiment. This article provides an in-depth look at the factors shaping NZDUSD today, including central bank commentary, global market trends, and recent shifts in risk sentiment.
Keywords: NZDUSD forecast, New Zealand dollar, forex trading, USD, economic data, central bank policy, risk sentiment, technical analysis, forex market
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Key Factors Supporting NZDUSD Bullish Bias Today
1. Federal Reserve Dovish Outlook
Recent Federal Reserve statements have taken a slightly dovish tone, with policymakers emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach to further rate hikes. The possibility of a Fed pause on interest rates provides support to the New Zealand dollar, as market sentiment leans towards a softer USD.
2. RBNZ’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently signaled a focus on inflation control, reinforcing a hawkish stance relative to the Fed. This contrasts with other central banks, positioning NZD as an attractive currency in the current global environment. Markets are pricing in a limited chance of a rate hike from the RBNZ in the near term, which could further support NZD.
3. Improved Risk Sentiment
Global markets have seen an increase in risk appetite, with equities rebounding and commodities trading higher. This shift often benefits the NZD due to its reputation as a commodity-linked and high-yield currency. As investors seek yield, demand for the New Zealand dollar may rise, enhancing NZDUSD.
4. Strong New Zealand Economic Data
New Zealand’s recent economic data, including employment figures and business confidence, indicate resilience in the economy. Solid domestic growth and low unemployment rates suggest underlying strength, which could further boost NZD demand against USD.
5. Technical Analysis Indicators
From a technical standpoint, NZDUSD is approaching key support levels around 0.5900, showing upward momentum and signaling a potential reversal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) levels indicate that the pair may have room to move higher before hitting overbought territory, aligning with a bullish outlook.
NZDUSD Today: What to Watch For
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Scheduled later today, these figures may influence USD if they show a labor market slowdown, potentially adding to the Fed’s dovish stance and supporting NZDUSD.
- NZDUSD’s Resistance Levels – Key resistance near 0.6050 could be tested if bullish momentum continues, while support at 0.5900 could offer a base.
Conclusion
Given the softer stance from the Federal Reserve and favorable economic data from New Zealand, NZDUSD shows signs of a slight bullish bias. As always, forex traders should monitor any significant data releases closely, as these could prompt volatility in NZDUSD.
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NZDUSD: Bullish scenario The 4H market structure is bullish
Also as you can see on the chart the 15 min chart is bullish.
So it can be a good opportunity to buy on the demand zone with LTF confirmation.
Please pay attention, both demand zones are valid, we can enter to the position with LTF confirmation.
AUDNZD: Bullish extension expected.AUDNZD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.156, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 27.433) as it maintained the rebound made on the 4H MA200 and bottom of the Channel Up. According to the 4H RSI, this pattern is similar to the 4H MA200 of April that made one final extension on that rebound to the 1.786 Fibonacci level. Our target is slightly under it (TP = 1.117500).
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NZDUSD Slightly Bullish Bias Today: Key Fundamental Drivers !Introduction
Today, the NZDUSD currency pair shows a slightly bullish bias, supported by fundamental factors in the current market conditions. Traders are closely monitoring the New Zealand dollar's performance against the US dollar, as it provides valuable insight into the economic trends in both countries. In this analysis, we’ll break down the key drivers likely to influence NZDUSD today and explore whether a bullish stance is justified.
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Key Factors Driving NZDUSD Bullish Bias
1. New Zealand Economic Data and Market Sentiment
The NZDUSD is benefiting from positive sentiment around recent New Zealand economic data. In the last few weeks, upbeat employment numbers and stable inflation indicators have bolstered confidence in New Zealand’s economic resilience. The recent jobs report revealed an increase in labor force participation and a decline in the unemployment rate, which suggests stronger consumer spending and economic stability. This environment supports demand for the New Zealand dollar, as traders expect a steady economic performance.
2. US Dollar Weakness Amid Mixed Data
The US dollar’s recent struggles play a significant role in NZDUSD’s bullish outlook. Recent US data releases, including mixed non-farm payrolls and a below-expectation ISM Manufacturing PMI, signal an uneven recovery in the US economy. Additionally, traders are beginning to anticipate that the Federal Reserve may hold off on further interest rate hikes, putting downward pressure on the US dollar. This outlook supports a bullish sentiment for NZDUSD, as reduced rate hike expectations make the New Zealand dollar more attractive in comparison.
3. Commodity Prices and Global Trade Trends
New Zealand's economy is heavily commodity-dependent, and rising global dairy and meat prices provide a tailwind for the NZD. Furthermore, the recent uptick in global trade volumes is particularly favorable for New Zealand, which relies heavily on exports. The improved demand in key markets for New Zealand exports, like China and Australia, strengthens the economic outlook, reinforcing the NZD and contributing to the bullish bias for NZDUSD.
4. Interest Rate Differential and Central Bank Policies
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a hawkish stance relative to the Federal Reserve, and this divergence is crucial for traders betting on the NZDUSD. The RBNZ’s approach to keeping interest rates elevated amidst inflation control efforts indicates support for the NZD. With the Fed showing signs of a more dovish outlook and potential rate cuts in 2025, the interest rate differential could favor a stronger New Zealand dollar against the US dollar.
5. Global Risk Sentiment and Safe-Haven Dynamics
The NZD often benefits during periods of strong global risk sentiment, while the USD’s safe-haven appeal wanes. Given the relatively calm market sentiment today, risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD tend to attract buyers, while the USD may face pressure. If this positive risk sentiment continues, the NZDUSD could maintain its upward bias.
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Technical Outlook for NZDUSD
From a technical analysis perspective, NZDUSD is trading near key support levels, which align with the fundamental bias for a slight bullish trend. Key resistance levels around 0.6000 may be tested if the current bullish momentum sustains. Traders are watching for breakout signals that could indicate further upside potential, with support levels near 0.5930 expected to provide a floor if the pair faces minor pullbacks.
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Conclusion
In summary, a combination of supportive economic data from New Zealand, US dollar weakness, favorable commodity prices, interest rate differentials, and risk-on sentiment underpin today’s slightly bullish outlook for NZDUSD. As these factors continue to influence market sentiment, NZDUSD could see moderate gains if bullish momentum holds. Traders should keep an eye on any shifts in US economic data and central bank communications, which could impact this bias.
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NZDJPY: Rectangle trading calls for buying.NZDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.566, MACD = 0.350, ADX = 19.993) as it's been trading sideways inside a Rectangle pattern since September 27th. The recent rebound happened on the 4H MA200 and today it took a rejection on the 4H MA50. One more test of the 4H MA200 is possible but overall it is more likely to see an upward test of the lower Resistance Zone (TP = 91.800).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Anticipating a Slightly Bullish Bias.Introduction
Today, we focus on the NZDUSD pair, assessing if a slightly bullish bias is likely. Amid evolving fundamental factors and current market sentiment, the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZDUSD) may see subtle upward momentum, depending on several key drivers. Let’s explore these influences in more detail to help traders make informed decisions.
1. Recent NZ Economic Indicators
New Zealand's recent economic data shows a stable but cautious outlook, with moderate improvements in employment and inflation metrics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a wait-and-see approach, prioritizing inflation control without aggressively tightening interest rates. Recent improvements in inflation data may continue to support the NZD, as stable inflation signals robust economic activity without undue financial strain. These trends encourage moderate investment inflows into New Zealand, providing slight upward pressure on the NZD.
2. Federal Reserve and US Economic Data
The US Federal Reserve’s recent signals suggest the potential for a pause in rate hikes. This dovish stance supports risk sentiment, favoring currencies like the NZD. If the Fed emphasizes an inflation-fighting stance with a cautious approach, risk sentiment could rise, supporting a slightly bullish bias for NZDUSD. Additionally, softer-than-expected US economic data may weigh on the USD, creating room for the NZD to gain traction.
3. Commodity Prices and Global Trade Dynamics
New Zealand's economy is heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly dairy and agricultural exports. A recent uptick in global dairy prices is favorable for the NZD, as higher export revenues strengthen New Zealand’s trade balance and overall economic resilience. Improved trade relations between China and New Zealand may also bolster investor confidence in the NZD, as China is a major trade partner. Positive developments here could add to NZD strength against the USD.
4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
Global risk sentiment plays a critical role in shaping the NZDUSD pair’s direction. The NZD often benefits in risk-on environments due to its status as a high-beta currency. Currently, with geopolitical uncertainties relatively controlled and a more stable global economic backdrop, risk appetite may support NZDUSD gains. If investors remain optimistic about global growth, the NZD’s appeal increases, leaning the bias towards a slight bullish trend.
Conclusion
In summary, the NZDUSD pair could exhibit a slightly bullish bias today, driven by favorable domestic economic indicators, the US Fed’s dovish stance, rising commodity prices, and stable market sentiment. This anticipated trend is subject to fluctuations, and traders are advised to keep a close eye on US data releases and global risk dynamics.
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NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias Amid Today !!NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias Amid Current Market Conditions (31/10/2024)
Introduction
As we delve into today’s trading session, the NZDUSD pair shows signs of a slightly bullish bias due to a combination of fundamental drivers and current market conditions. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the NZDUSD's outlook on October 31, 2024, shedding light on the key factors impacting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the US Dollar (USD) in today’s trading environment. With the right blend of technical and fundamental insights, we aim to offer valuable insights for traders considering NZDUSD positions.
Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting NZDUSD Today
1. China's Economic Growth and Its Influence on NZD
- The New Zealand Dollar, a commodity-linked currency, closely correlates with China's economic health due to New Zealand's export reliance. Recent reports suggest a moderate recovery in China's industrial and manufacturing data, which bodes well for NZD. Increased demand for New Zealand exports, especially dairy, bolsters the Kiwi's outlook, creating an overall positive sentiment for NZDUSD.
2. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Stance
- A significant driver for NZDUSD is the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, with expectations for a pause on future rate hikes. This has resulted in a softer USD as investors anticipate fewer rate hikes going forward. A dovish Fed policy tends to weaken the USD, increasing the attractiveness of the NZD and slightly tilting NZDUSD towards bullishness.
3. New Zealand's Stable Economic Indicators
- New Zealand’s recent economic data reveals consistent GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and a robust labor market. This stability has created an optimistic environment for the New Zealand Dollar. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a steady rate outlook, supporting the Kiwi by keeping investors interested in NZD assets due to positive yields.
4. US Treasury Yield Fluctuations and Its Impact on USD
- The ongoing fluctuations in US Treasury yields have contributed to the USD's recent mixed performance. A decline in yields typically makes the USD less attractive, as lower yields reduce the appeal for foreign investors. As a result, NZDUSD may benefit from a weaker USD, supporting a bullish bias in today’s trading.
5. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
- Recent geopolitical tensions and global market fluctuations have impacted the broader market sentiment. The Kiwi typically gains when there is a higher risk appetite among investors. As volatility stabilizes, we may see increased demand for higher-yielding currencies, which could strengthen NZDUSD’s position, albeit moderately.
Technical Analysis of NZDUSD (31/10/2024)
Looking at today’s technical setup for NZDUSD, the pair trades above its 50-day moving average, a potential bullish indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near the 60 mark, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Support levels at 0.5850 and resistance near 0.5920 will be critical zones to monitor.
Key Support: 0.5850
Key Resistance: 0.5920
Conclusion: NZDUSD Outlook for 31/10/2024
With today’s economic data and current sentiment, the NZDUSD pair leans towards a slightly bullish outlook. Strong economic fundamentals from New Zealand, coupled with a softer US Dollar from a dovish Federal Reserve stance, are influencing the pair's potential upward movement. However, traders should stay vigilant to potential changes in Treasury yields and any abrupt shifts in global risk sentiment.
By focusing on today’s fundamental and technical drivers, NZDUSD traders can better gauge the market’s slight bullish bias.
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NZD/JPY Triangle Pattern in Daily Time Frame: Breakout and Long On the daily time frame, I’m monitoring a triangle pattern on NZD/JPY. Once a confirmed breakout occurs, I plan to enter a long position. My first target will be the pink resistance zone. This key level could provide the next significant resistance point, and I’m waiting for price confirmation before taking action.
NZD/SGD Tests and Rejects Key Demand Area, Bullish Sentiment.Over the past three days, the NZD/SGD pair has retested a previous demand area and shown a clear rejection, signaling potential buying interest at this level. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report adds weight to this scenario, revealing that retail traders remain predominantly short, while "Smart Money"—institutional investors—are beginning to edge higher in their positioning.
Large speculators have already turned bullish, reflecting a growing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the Singapore Dollar (SGD). This shift in sentiment could set the stage for a possible long setup, particularly as seasonal trends suggest further upside potential for NZD/SGD.
From a technical perspective, the rejection of the demand zone, combined with the bullish shift in institutional positioning, points to a potential upward move. Traders will be closely monitoring price action in the coming days for confirmation of a breakout, which could present an opportunity to enter long positions in alignment with the emerging bullish sentiment.
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NZD/USD Attracts Modest Buying on Friday Amid USD WeaknessThe NZD/USD pair has attracted some buying interest for the second consecutive day on Friday, driven by a modest weakening of the US Dollar (USD). However, the upside momentum lacks strong bullish conviction as the pair continues to hover around the 0.6071 level, close to the one-month low touched earlier this week. Despite the rebound, market sentiment surrounding the pair remains cautious, with traders awaiting further cues from both global economic developments and key technical indicators.
US Dollar Weakness Offers Relief
The primary driver behind the modest gains in NZD/USD has been the slight pullback in the US Dollar. The greenback has recently shown signs of weakening after a strong rally in previous weeks, largely supported by robust US economic data and hawkish expectations around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The recent downtick in the USD has provided some breathing room for risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in the pair.
Technical Outlook: Demand Zone Holds Firm
From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair appears to have rejected a significant demand zone, suggesting that there is support for the pair at current levels. This demand area has seen increased buying interest, particularly as retail traders remain extremely short on the pair. In contrast, smart money – typically institutional investors with deeper market insights – has started to build long positions, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
The rejection of the demand zone and the presence of long positions from smart money traders suggest that the NZD/USD pair could be poised for further gains. This technical setup aligns with the broader seasonality patterns that indicate a potential uptrend in the coming weeks.
Seasonality and Market Sentiment: Bullish Signs Ahead?
Seasonality data, which tracks historical patterns in currency movements, shows a potential uptrend for the NZD/USD pair. This is supported by the current market positioning, where retail traders are overwhelmingly short, creating a contrarian signal for a potential rally. Smart money's shift towards building long positions adds weight to the argument that the pair may be headed for a sustained move higher.
Given these factors, we have decided to open a long position on NZD/USD, taking advantage of the technical setup, smart money movements, and favorable seasonality trends. While the overall market sentiment remains cautious, the combination of these signals offers a compelling case for a potential bullish move in the near term.
Conclusion: A Cautious Bullish Outlook
While the NZD/USD pair has attracted modest buying on the back of USD weakness, the bullish conviction remains limited for now. However, the rejection of a key demand area, coupled with the increasing long positions from smart money and favorable seasonality patterns, suggests that the pair could see further upside in the days ahead.
As always, traders should remain cautious and monitor upcoming economic data releases and market developments that could influence the pair's direction. Nonetheless, the technical and fundamental setup currently points to a potential opportunity for upside gains, and we are positioned accordingly with a long trade.
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NZD/USD Rebounds, But Caution Remains Ahead of US Economic DataThe NZD/USD pair rebounded today from a key demand area, but caution remains among traders as critical US economic data looms. The upcoming reports for USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly affecting both EUR/USD and NZD/USD. These data points are crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected results could further support the US Dollar (USD), applying downward pressure on other currencies like the euro and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
China's Economic Data in Focus for NZD
In addition to US developments, market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday. The upcoming GDP and Retail Sales figures will be closely monitored, especially after the recent disappointment in China’s CPI and PPI numbers. Weak results from China could have negative implications for the NZD, given New Zealand’s heavy reliance on trade with China.
The New Zealand Dollar has faced additional challenges, as China's recently announced fiscal stimulus measures have failed to lift market sentiment. Investors remain uncertain about the scale and impact of the stimulus package, further weighing on the outlook for the NZD.
USD Strength and Federal Reserve Outlook
Meanwhile, the US Dollar has found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered market expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with little to no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction. This has kept the USD resilient, further limiting the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair.
Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment
From a technical standpoint, while the NZD/USD has seen a rebound, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain bearish on the pair, whereas smart money has started increasing their positions. In addition, our forecast suggests a potential shift toward a bullish seasonality for the NZD, though market conditions remain uncertain.
Given the importance of today’s US economic data, we are adopting a patient approach, waiting for the news release before considering any entries. Stronger-than-expected US figures could dampen the outlook for the NZD, while weaker data may present opportunities for the NZD to regain strength.
In conclusion, while there are signs of a potential bullish trend emerging for the NZD/USD, the combination of ongoing USD strength and upcoming key economic releases from both the US and China makes it necessary to remain cautious in the near term. Patience will be key as we await further developments in the market.
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NZDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6080
Stop Loss: 0.6140 (60 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.5980 (100 pips below entry, offering a 1.67:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
The New Zealand dollar is displaying signs of weakness, and with global risk-off sentiment prevailing, NZD/USD may continue to fall towards 0.5980. This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.
NZDUSD: Broke under both MAs. Strong sell signalNZDUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.216, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 38.839) as it smashed through both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200. The long term structure is a Rectangle (R1 and S1 Zone) and the current pattern that is emerging is almost identical with the previous bearish waves towards the S1 Zone. It is possible to see a medium term reboudn back to the 1D MA50 but on the long term we are bearish (TP = 0.58600).
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GBPNZD Strong buy signal at the bottom of the Channel Up.The GBPNZD pair has been trading within an 11-month Channel Up and since its break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on August 28, it has been forming the new bottom. Monday saw it approaching the Higher Lows trend-line and with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just below it as a Support, we believe that we've seen the new Low.
In fact, as the 1D RSI made a Double Bottom, it resembles the Channel's last bottom formation on June 06. The final confirmation of the bullish break-out will be when a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50. We expect at least a +4.45% rise, thus targeting 2.19000 on the medium-term.
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