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Newzealanddollar

InvestMate|EUR/NZD I'm not counting on increases💶💶EUR/NZD I'm not counting on increases 💶This time it's time for EUR/NZD 💶Looking at the chart, with what strength it has been falling over the last few days. 💶Bearing in mind that in my opinion the Euro may weaken over the next few days. And the situation on the New Zealand Dollar is not clear(It has shown a really powerful rebound over the past weeks) 💶Looking at the whole environment, I think that the currently ongoing downward wave may not end in the coming weeks. 💶I determined the support zone based on the strongest fibo level of 0.618 along with the fact that this price level has been a strong resistance as well as support zone in the past. 💶The resistance zone is located at the 0.382 level where reversals have repeatedly occurred. 💶The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the decline to the support zone. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💶 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
1
InvestMate|NZD/CAD Nearest resistance zone🍁🍁NZD/CAD Nearest resistance zone. 🍁In the current analysis I decided to try to find where the current upward impulse which started with the breakout of the bottom on 10 October, followed by a huge upward wave until now, might end. 🍁 To define a possible good place for a correction, I decided to use the external fibo measure which I led from the current peak to the low we made today. 🍁The nearest possible level is around the price level of 0.8397 where the external fibo measure of 1.272 is located. 🍁It is worth noting that we have again moved out of the uptrend channel, breaking out of it at the upside. 🍁The support zone I decided to determine based on the 0.236 level and you can also see that it was previously very respected. 🍁The scenario I am playing out is to squeeze the price to the resistance level on a wave of optimism. But I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account for this pair, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 🍁*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Long
by InvestMate
21
NZDUSD belatedly breaks up after hawkish RBNZ, broad USD selloffNZDUSD looks to have taken out resistance capped just below 0.6230, which may set the stage for upward extension toward resistance in the 0.6352-0.6469 zone. Reclaiming a foothold below 0.6150 now seems necessary to neutralize near-term upward pressure. Prices were relatively staid after November's RBNZ announcement registered on the hawkish end of expectations - seeing some gains at first but struggling to find momentum - but overall USD weakness offered fuel thereafter (with November FOMC meeting minutes at least somewhat helpful in pushing the Greenback lower, though its slide began before the news hit the wires).
Long
by IlyaSpivak
InvestMate|NZD/USD Long-awaited correction🥝🥝NZD/USD Long-awaited correction. 🥝That's what I wrote in my last post about the coming falls: 🥝That's how I would like to update/extend my downward perspective this time: 🥝The impressive gains that the New Zealand Dollar has made over the last few months is quite astounding. 🥝The NZD/USD pair was helped fact that there was a sharp wave of declines in the US Dollar as the New Zealand Dollar strengthened. 🥝Which resulted in a straight upward wave with virtually no major corrections. 🥝 Therefore, in my opinion, it was time to catch up and make a downward correction. 🥝Because looking at the chart, the price has been struggling to break through to new highs for a good two weeks. 🥝This is how we get to the support zone which, in my opinion, could hold precious if there will be a downward correction. 🥝Zone was determined by a cluster of two fibo levels. The first is the level of 0.236 of the entire downward wave that started on 25 February 2021. The second level is 0.382 of the entire current upward wave from the peak. It can also be seen that during the current upward wave from the peak, the price has repeatedly found support/resistance at that zone. 🥝The resistance zone will remain around the current peaks between the fibo level of the current downward wave 0.618 and the new highs. 🥝The scenario I am playing out is the final execution of a downward correction with a range reaching the support zone marked on the chart, taking into account smaller corrections along the way. 🥝*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
2
AUD catches a breather as risk tone moderatesDespite the improvement in risk sentiment from Monday, it’s worth noting that significant concerns surrounding China’s coronavirus situation remain, keeping risks tilted to the downside. Nevertheless, the improved risk tone has provided a welcomed respite for the AUD, copping its recent decline with AUDUSD holding steady throughout the session above the 0.66 handle. Another beneficiary of the improved risk tone is NZD, which is receiving an additional boost from expectations for another aggressive rate hike from the RBNZ at its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Consensus looks for a 75 basis points rate hike from the central bank, taking the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Indeed, the RBNZ will be the next high impact risk event in the next Asia Pacific session. Before then, central banks will still remain a key theme and focus, with comments from a plethora of central bank members throughout today’s European and US sessions. Today’s speakers will include RBA Governor Lowe, Fed’s Mester, Fed’s George and Fed’s Bullard.
by thunderpips
7
EURNZD: Your Trading Plan For This Week 🇪🇺🇳🇿 EURNZD is trading within a falling channel on a daily time frame. For the last 2 weeks, the pair is consolidating, though. The price formed a descending triangle formation - a bearish accumulation pattern. To catch a bearish continuation, wait for a bearish breakout of 1.673 - 1.679 horizontal support. After a daily candle close below that, a bearish continuation will be expected. Goals will be 1.66 / 1.65 Be patient and wait for a breakout. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
8
InvestMate|NZD/USD Kiwi ready to fall🥝🥝NZD/USD Kiwi ready to fall 🥝That's as I wrote in last posts. The dollar is ready to score an upward correction in the current downtrend. 🥝It's perfect because the exact same situation will happen on the New Zealand dollar but in the opposite direction 🥝This creates an ideal opportunity to make some profit on NZD/USD declines 🥝Looking at the fact that we have passed a double top and the strength on the upside in recent weeks has dropped significantly I decided to establish a resistance zone at the tops. 🥝I determined the support zone based on the fibo level of 0.5 of the whole upward wave. In which the price has repeatedly found support and also resistance. 🥝The scenario I'm playing out is the start of a decline with the aim of making a larger downward correction, taking into account small corrections along the way 🥝*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
14
InvestMate|NZD/JPY So what, are we falling?🥝🥝NZD/JPY So what, are we falling? 🥝As I have written in previous post featuring the Japanese yen pairs that we are ready to fall. 🥝That will also be the case this time. 🥝There is an interesting situation ahead, on the New Zealand dollar we are preparing for a strong downward correction coupled with the long-term uptrend on the Japanese yen that has started. A strong downward wave is in front of us. 🥝We are currently at a resistance zone that has been respected for months. The price has repeatedly struggled to break through these levels. 🥝The most significant support zones will be two zones. 🥝 The first determined by the cluster of the fibo level 0.382 of the entire upward wave and the outer fibo level 1.272 measuring the last upward impulse. 🥝The second based on a cluster of the 0.5 level of the entire upward wave and the outer fibo level 1.618 measuring the last upward impulse. 🥝The scenario I am playing out is to expect a strong wave of strengthening of the Japanese Yen against the New Zealand Dollar heading into support zones not excluding minor corrections along the way. 🥝*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
10
GBPNZD Strong buy opportunity.The GBPNZD pair is moving exactly as predicted on our previous analysis on September 28: The price hit and got rejected on the Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line) of the Triangle pattern that has been holding since April 02 2020. The pair pulled-back aggressively, but this remains much in line with the 2019 W-shaped fractal, which after its own 1D Golden Cross (when the 1D MA50 (blue) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange)), it made a new High above the Symmetrical Resistance. This time, since the uptrend is limited to the Lower Highs trend-line, we will again buy and target this. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
💵Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar 💵Analyze (11/14/2022)!!!After a fake break breakdown, it seems the Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar breaks(valid) the descending channel this time. I expect the Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar to grow at least until the resistance zone in the coming days. 🔅Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar ( AUDNZD ) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
6
AUDNZD has more room to dropThe AUDNZD pair followed exactly the pattern we presented on our previous analysis on September 23 and after completing a standard +4.70% rise on the blue Channel Up, it broke below it: The pattern that was our benchmark on this accurate projection was the January - July 2021 Megaphone. After a rebound on the 0.786 Fibonacci level, the price got sold-off to a new Low on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That extension on today's pattern is just below 1.07000. Only a 1W MACD Bullish Cross can invalidate the selling. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
3
NZDJPY Pull-back first, 88.000 - 90.000 later.The NZDJPY pair followed very closely the trading plan we presented on our last September 22 analysis: As you see after a drop to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, the price rebounded aggressively back to the Resistance Zone. What helped us make this accurate projection were the striking similarities that presented early on with the June - September 2021 fractal. It appears that we are inside the blue oval pull-back which was completed just below the 0.786 Fibonacci level and then bounced for a new High on the -0.5 Fib extension. See how similar their RSI patterns are as well. As a result, once this pull-back is completed, we expect a rise first to the 87.900 Resistance (top) and the -0.5 Fib above 90.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Over the past 12 months the NZD has been a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas in the cyclical environment. However, over the last few weeks the NZD’s price action has been a lot more promising by responding positively to hawkish RBNZ comments, and bullish to solid CPI and Jobs data. Which means trading NZD has been looking more attractive again. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. The currency has been moving more in line with its fundamentals over the past few weeks, which is something that we have not seen for the NZD in the past 12 months. This means opportunities for the NZD is starting to look attractive again. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
1
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Over the past 12 months the NZD has been a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas in the cyclical environment. However, over the last few weeks the NZD’s price action has been a lot more promising by responding positively to hawkish RBNZ comments, and bullish to solid CPI and Jobs data. Which means trading NZD has been looking more attractive again. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. The currency has been moving more in line with its fundamentals over the past few weeks, which is something that we have not seen for the NZD in the past 12 months. This means opportunities for the NZD is starting to look attractive again. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
6
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Over the past 12 months the NZD has been a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas in the cyclical environment. However, over the last few weeks the NZD’s price action has been a lot more promising by responding positively to hawkish RBNZ comments, and bullish to solid CPI and Jobs data. Which means trading NZD has been looking more attractive again. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. The currency has been moving more in line with its fundamentals over the past few weeks, which is something that we have not seen for the NZD in the past 12 months. This means opportunities for the NZD is starting to look attractive again. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
💵British Pound/New Zealand Dollar 💵Analyze (11/03/2022)!!!British Pound/New Zealand Dollar was able to make a Head and Shoulders Pattern near the important trend line. I expect the British Pound/New Zealand Dollar will go down to the target of the pattern = Support line. 🔅British Pound/New Zealand Dollar Analyze ( GBPNZD ) Time frame 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
2
GBPNZD testing support + newsPrice is testing the support for the 4th time, such as MACD. We can see the columns in MACDS indicator losing power, and the line crossing each other. About candles we've a three inside up after testing the support, show us a bullish signal. And to conclude the Reerve Bank of New Zeland says "economy will slow as rising rates curb consumption", the houses prices are still expensive; and this morning in NZ we had data about unemployment and employment, and: Unemployment: 3,3%, higher thand expected (3,2%). They though the rate was lower than last Q, but is the same as the previous and higher than expected. Employment: Higher than expected with a change of 1,3bp and the forecast was 0,5% --------------------------------- Dont forget about yesterday: BOE made a £838b stimulus and sold £750m of gilts
Long
by AFCapital21
NZDUSD Broke above the 1D MA50. Trading plan ahead.The NZDUSD pair has been trading within a long-term Bearish Megaphone pattern since the April 05 High. Yesterday it broke (but didn't close) above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 18. Today it is (so far) trading entirely above the 1D MA50. If it closes above it as well, we expect it to extend the rise to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) where it formed its last Lower High (August 12) at the top of the Bearish Megaphone. If rejected there or close below the 1D MA50, we will sell and target 0.55700 (top of the October Support Zone). A break above the top of the Bearish Megaphone, would constitute a bullish shift long-term with a first target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1