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Newzealanddollar

NZDJPY: Key Structure Ahead! Your Plan: 🇳🇿🇯🇵 NZDJPY is approaching an important zone of confluence on a daily. We see a perfect match between a horizontal structure resistance and 618 retracement of the last bearish impulse. To catch a bearish move from the underlined zone, watch a rising wedge pattern on 1H time frame. Your trigger to short will be its bearish breakout (at least an hourly candle close below its support). Then a bearish continuation will be expected to 84.2 level. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the underlined area will push the market to higher structure levels. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
6
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite the RBNZ being one of the most hawkish central banks from 2021, it hasn’t been enough to provide any meaningful trending support for the NZD. The cyclical concerns for the global economy, alongside concerns from China regarding their struggles with their covid-zero policy as well as recent big falls in commodity prices has kept the NZD pressured. Even though the RBNZ is expecting to keep their hiking cycle intact as they proved at their July meeting, some mild economic concerns have been starting to show up in the recent data, something they alluded to in their statement as well by noting medterm downside risks for the economy. Recent data such as consumer and business confidence has confirmed this view. Furthermore, a big focus for the RBNZ’s aggressive policy (apart from high inflation of course) has been to try and calm down a very hot housing market, and even though the fall is small we have seen YY house prices cool starting to cool down. These developments on the growth side are not expected to stop the RBNZ’s hiking cycle just yet, but some market participants are expecting a more dovish tone reflecting these concerns and a push back in hike expectations in the months ahead. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Tactical positioning looksstretched, and trading at these levels it increases possibility of some mean reversion or position squaring which could trigger some upside in the NZD. Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in commodity markets (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears; lower growth concerns) should be supportive for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in commodity markets (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, further growth concerns) could weigh on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the RBNZ’s current outlook and stretched positioning, we would favour short-term upside catalysts over trying to chase the currency lower in the short-term. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials have been the biggest negative driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, the BoJ’s reluctance to shift on policy even with inflation starting to push higher remains a negative driver for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited in the current bear market compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities , so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, US10Y and commodities have been reacting more and more negative to the current negative cyclical growth outlook, and as a result has seen big players trim their massive JPY shorts. If this continues it should continue to support the currency on any negative data surprises from the US, especially given the size of current JPY short positions. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities . It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
1
AUD NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst of underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery has been a key focus for our previous bullish AUD bias, which worked out well until a few weeks ago. Our view was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but price action has proven us wrong on that assumption, with Iron Ore dropping close to 30% from the mid-June. The RBA which finally started their hiking cycle has also failed to provide much support for the AUD, with recent comments suggesting the bank isn’t ready to confirm the aggressive number of hikes that STIR markets have already priced in. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we are moving our bias to neutral for the AUD. The only reason why we haven’t shifted to bearish is because the recent data out of China has been better than expected, and still poses upside risks for the currency if things like Iron Ore can put in a base and show some recovery. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly triggers (CPI this week) or hawkish comments or actions from them could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Despite CPI >5% we’ve recently heard typical stubbornly hesitant comments pushing back against aggressive tightening implied by STIRs. Thus, any overly dovish comments or potential data triggers (CPI this week) can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially and until commodities stabilize, the AUD might struggle to maintain upside momentum. NZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite the RBNZ being one of the most hawkish central banks from 2021, it hasn’t been enough to provide any meaningful trending support for the NZD. The cyclical concerns for the global economy, alongside concerns from China regarding their struggles with their covid-zero policy as well as recent big falls in commodity prices has kept the NZD pressured. Even though the RBNZ is expecting to keep their hiking cycle intact as they proved at their July meeting, some mild economic concerns have been starting to show up in the recent data, something they alluded to in their statement as well by noting medterm downside risks for the economy. Recent data such as consumer and business confidence has confirmed this view. Furthermore, a big focus for the RBNZ’s aggressive policy (apart from high inflation of course) has been to try and calm down a very hot housing market, and even though the fall is small we have seen YY house prices cool starting to cool down. These developments on the growth side are not expected to stop the RBNZ’s hiking cycle just yet, but some market participants are expecting a more dovish tone reflecting these concerns and a push back in hike expectations in the months ahead. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Tactical positioning looksstretched, and trading at these levels it increases possibility of some mean reversion or position squaring which could trigger some upside in the NZD. Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in commodity markets (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears; lower growth concerns) should be supportive for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in commodity markets (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, further growth concerns) could weigh on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the RBNZ’s current outlook and stretched positioning, we would favour short-term upside catalysts over trying to chase the currency lower in the short-term.
by thunderpips
2
New Zealand Dollar Futures (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 0.63840 Pivot: 0.63205 Support : 0.62485 Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.63205 where the swing high resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.63840 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection , 161.8% fibonacci extension and 127.2% fibonacci extension are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.62485 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: Due to the lower economic activity, we have a bearish view on New Zealand Dollars. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
CME:6N1!Long
by Genesiv
EURNZD Long-term sell. Can get ugly if this level breaks.This is a EURNZD analysis on the 1W time-frame as our most recent one on 1D is fulfilling the projection we made on June 16: The long-term pattern remains a Channel Down and our target the 1.5600 Support. Then we can consider buying near the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel with minimum risk and high return targeting the Internal Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line. The risk should be as minimal as possible as the slightest break below the Channel, would constitute an immediate sell signal and can open the way for a powerful sell-off. The reason is the the 1W RSI Lower Highs pattern resembles that of mid 2020 which pushed the price down to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension on Feb 22 2021. That is now at 1.45000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
NZDCHF Wait for one last pull-back or buy the 1D MA50 breakThe NZDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since March 2021. It made its most recent Lower Low on July 01 2022 but since July 08 it has been consolidating sideways. This has caused the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to get very close. If it breaks, that would be a technical break-out buy signal. However as long as it fails to break, there are higher probabilities to buy lower. At least this is what took place on January 13 where after a near rejection, the price made one last pull-back to the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel and then emphatically rebounded for two months. The 1D RSI sequence tends to agree that we are replicating a similar price action. In both cases the target would be the red trend-line just below the Lower Highs (top) of the Channel. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
NZDCAD Testing the 1D MA50 and following exactly our planThe NZDCAD pair couldn't have traded better lately as it has been following exactly the trading plan we posted on June 17: As you see after a rebound to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rejection, the pair made a Lower Low exactly at the bottom of both the Bearish Megaphone and Channel Down patterns, which is where we advised for a buy. Since then has been slowly rising for the past 2 weeks and is now again testing the 1D MA50. A break above, justifies our expectation that all this price action since March has a mirror pattern of March - July 2021. The target is at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, if the price gets rejected on the 1D MA50, be ready to take an opposite position and sell targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is what took place on the December 30 2021 rejection. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
NZDCAD: Classic Bullish Reversal 🇳🇿🇨🇦 So it turned out that NZDCAD formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern on a daily. The price has easily broken and closed above its neckline. I believe that it will initiate a strong bullish movement. The initial target will be based on a falling trend line. The second target is horizontal structure based - 0.8168. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
3
GBPNZD targeting 2.010 after this pull-back is completedThe GBPNZD pair is trading below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the past week. This is not an unfamiliar trading set-up as the same W pattern was last seen from October 2018 to October 2019. The last Lower High of the long-term Triangle pattern was on February 03 2022 so currently, in terms of RSI also, we are on the last pull-back before the final rally to complete the pattern. Our long-term target is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.010. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
New Zealand Dollar Futures (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 0.63185 Pivot: 0.62505 Support : 0.61850 Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.62505 where the overlap resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken the pivot , we would expect bullish momentum to carry prices to 1st resistance at 0.63185 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement , 61.8% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.61850 where the overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:6N1!Long
by Genesiv
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar slipped to a one-week low against a basket of currencies on Monday, from the two-decade high hit last week, as traders pared bets on how aggressive the Federal Reserve would be in raising rates at its meeting later this month. NZD – New Zealand CPI jumped 1.7% in the second quarter, lifting annual inflation to a 32-year high of 7.3% and resulting in some analysts calling for more aggressive policy tightening from the RBNZ. Commenting on the report, Goldman Sachs noted that: “Today’s upside surprise clearly raises the risk that the RBNZ step up the pace of tightening at its August meeting – we see a 35% chance of a 75bp hike. However, with rates already at a modestly restrictive level of 2.5%, we think the bar for the RBNZ to accelerate the pace of tightening at this point in the cycle is relatively high – and will likely require clearer signs of a breakout in long-term inflation expectations rather than high spot inflation.”
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips