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EUR NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB In Oct the ECB didn’t offer new info on policy or forward guidance. Inflation was the biggest talking point among the GC . The bank acknowledged price pressures will be higher and last longer than previously anticipated. But also reiterated that CPI will move back below their 2% target in the med-term (2023). The meeting was as a placeholder meeting for Dec, where they’re expected to announce the way forward for the PEPP and API , with markets expecting a formal end to the PEPP program from March 2022 but looking for info on how and what type of transition to expect for the bond purchase plans. After the meeting, the EUR saw of upside, initially attributed to the bank not pushing back hard enough against money market forecasts for a hike next year but as we noted the move looked more in line with short covering and month-end Dollar selling. For now, the bias for policy remains dovish and a negative for the EUR. Given the past week’s covid developments, it does provide the ECB with an excuse to deliver a dovish tone to any bond purchase program decisions they announce at the Dec meeting. 2. The country’s economic developments Earlier issues with vaccinations and lockdowns at the start of 2021 weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials against the US and UK still quite wide, despite some of the recent strong economic data. Even though the recent activity data suggests the hit to the economy from previous lockdowns weren’t as bad as feared, the massive climb in case numbers across Europe, and now cases of the new Omicron variant also identified, odds for further lockdowns are increasing. Any further escalation with more member states moving into strict lockdowns will further weigh on growth prospects and the EUR, and as a result (and combined with ongoing central bank policy divergence) the fundamental outlook remains bearish for the EUR. On the fiscal front, attention is still on ongoing discussions among European states to potentially allow the purchase of green bonds NOT to count against budget deficits. Such a decision could drastically change the fiscal picture and we would expect it to be a big positive for the EUR and EU equities if that change should come to pass. 3. Funding Characteristics The EUR’s funding characteristics are also in focus. As a low yielder (like JPY & CHF), the EUR has been a funding choice among carry trades, especially during 2019 where it was a favourite against high yielding EM’. Also, part of the EUR upside in the initial risk-off scare in March 2020 was attributed to an unwind of large carry trades. Recently the EUR has exhibited some resilience during risk off tones. As more central banks start normalizing policy, the EUR’s use as a funder could add additional pressure in the med-term . But it could also spark risk off upside if some of those trades unwind. This doesn’t make the EUR a safe haven, but as rates climb globally it can become more sensitive to carry. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -7599 with a net non-commercial position of -3826. The Dollar’s downside on Friday was enough to provide the EUR some reprieve in the short-term. Even though we think the bounce in the EUR should be short-lived, we are not ready to look for fresh EURUSD shorts just yet, with the likes of EURNZD offering much more value at current price levels for shorts as long as the virus situation can take a turn for the positive. NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front).
by thunderpips
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front). USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation , with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the cards, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now, with possible downside risks brewing it means real yields could continue to drift lower, which have not yet hurt the greenback, but is something to keep on the radar. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US and global economic data in the next few weeks. Especially with last week’s covid fears, any downgrades to growth expectations should support the Dollar from a safe haven perspective. 4. Economic Data Fed speak will be in focus in the week ahead, going into their lockdown on Friday and with the new covid concerns in the mix it’ll be important to find out whether the Fed has changed their minds about anything. Fed Powell’s testimony will be important in this regard. 5. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -540 with a net non-commercial position of +34908. Positioning isn’t at stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large speculator positioning has been sizeable in a short space of time, which means the USD could still be vulnerable in the event of further repricing on the Fed side. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks.
by thunderpips
EUR NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB In Oct the ECB didn’t offer new info on policy or forward guidance. Inflation was the biggest talking point among the GC. The bank acknowledged price pressures will be higher and last longer than previously anticipated. But also reiterated that CPI will move back below their 2% target in the med-term (2023). The meeting was as a placeholder meeting for Dec, where they’re expected to announce the way forward for the PEPP and API, with markets expecting a formal end to the PEPP program from March 2022 but looking for info on how and what type of transition to expect for the bond purchase plans. After the meeting, the EUR saw of upside, initially attributed to the bank not pushing back hard enough against money market forecasts for a hike next year but as we noted the move looked more in line with short covering and month-end Dollar selling. For now, the bias for policy remains dovish and a negative for the EUR. Given the past week’s covid developments, it does provide the ECB with an excuse to deliver a dovish tone to any bond purchase program decisions they announce at the Dec meeting. 2. The country’s economic developments Earlier issues with vaccinations and lockdowns at the start of 2021 weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials against the US and UK still quite wide, despite some of the recent strong economic data. Even though the recent activity data suggests the hit to the economy from previous lockdowns weren’t as bad as feared, the massive climb in case numbers across Europe, and now cases of the new Omicron variant also identified, odds for further lockdowns are increasing. Any further escalation with more member states moving into strict lockdowns will further weigh on growth prospects and the EUR, and as a result (and combined with ongoing central bank policy divergence) the fundamental outlook remains bearish for the EUR. On the fiscal front, attention is still on ongoing discussions among European states to potentially allow the purchase of green bonds NOT to count against budget deficits. Such a decision could drastically change the fiscal picture and we would expect it to be a big positive for the EUR and EU equities if that change should come to pass. 3. Funding Characteristics The EUR’s funding characteristics are also in focus. As a low yielder (like JPY & CHF), the EUR has been a funding choice among carry trades, especially during 2019 where it was a favourite against high yielding EM’. Also, part of the EUR upside in the initial risk-off scare in March 2020 was attributed to an unwind of large carry trades. Recently the EUR has exhibited some resilience during risk off tones. As more central banks start normalizing policy, the EUR’s use as a funder could add additional pressure in the med-term. But it could also spark risk off upside if some of those trades unwind. This doesn’t make the EUR a safe haven, but as rates climb globally it can become more sensitive to carry. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -7599 with a net non-commercial position of -3826. The Dollar’s downside on Friday was enough to provide the EUR some reprieve in the short-term. Even though we think the bounce in the EUR should be short-lived, we are not ready to look for fresh EURUSD shorts just yet, with the likes of EURNZD offering much more value at current price levels for shorts as long as the virus situation can take a turn for the positive. NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front).
by thunderpips
3
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front). USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation , with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the cards, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now, with possible downside risks brewing it means real yields could continue to drift lower, which have not yet hurt the greenback, but is something to keep on the radar. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US and global economic data in the next few weeks. Especially with last week’s covid fears, any downgrades to growth expectations should support the Dollar from a safe haven perspective. 4. Economic Data Fed speak will be in focus in the week ahead, going into their lockdown on Friday and with the new covid concerns in the mix it’ll be important to find out whether the Fed has changed their minds about anything. Fed Powell’s testimony will be important in this regard. 5. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -540 with a net non-commercial position of +34908. Positioning isn’t at stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large speculator positioning has been sizeable in a short space of time, which means the USD could still be vulnerable in the event of further repricing on the Fed side. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks.
by thunderpips
3
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsNZD – The New Zealand dollar slipped on Wednesday after the country’s central bank hiked rates by less than hawks had wagered on, though it also lifted forecasts for how far rates would ultimately have to rise. Nevertheless, Kiwibank argues that the “move is consistent with the RBNZ’s already signaled measured approach to policy tightening, and it is already ahead of most central banks withdrawing policy stimulus.” Adding that, they now see rates at 2.5% by 2023.
by thunderpips
2
MarketBreakdown | GOLD, EURCAD, Dollar Index, EURCHF Hey traders, here is a brief technical outlook of 4 peculiar instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ USDCAD - Weekly time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 For the entire month, the pair is very bullish. Ahead is a major falling weekly trend line. I will expect a pullback from that. Let the price reach that trend line, then look for a confirmation to short. 2️⃣ NZDUSD - Weekly time frame 🇳🇿🇺🇸 Similar to USDCAD, NZDUSD is very close to a major rising trend line. Taking into consideration that the pair looks quite oversold, I will expect a pullback from that. 3️⃣ USDCHF - Monthly time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭 The market is trading in a global bearish trend. Recently the price reached a major monthly trend line linking the last lower highs. It is a very important decision moment for the pair: in case of its bullish breakout, a strong bullish wave will be expected. In case of a formation of a reversal pattern on lower time frames, a bearish rally will most likely initiate. 4️⃣ GBPCAD - Monthly time frame 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 The pair looks very bearish to me. After a confirmed bearish breakout of a major rising trend line, we see its retest. I believe that soon bears will start pushing the market. ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
15
NZD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most important part of the statement was that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2% midpoint over the med-term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the Aug meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the med-term outlook for CPI and employment, which means keeping close tabs on the data and covid will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains bullish , and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. The upcoming Nov meeting will be an important one so make sure to catch up for this in our Must-Read Section of the terminal. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news last week with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets or the RBNZ had expected and is part of the reason why some participants are looking for a 50bsp hike from the RBNZ this week. Whether 25 or 50, the chance for tradable volatility is definitely there this week. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -979 with a net non-commercial position of +12882. The NZD now reflects the 2nd biggest netlong positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. This is important to know going into the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday as it means the bar is higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. As long as the bank doesn’t downgrade their OCR projections, the carry component of the NZ cash rate will be an important driver to watch in the year ahead. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone remains constructive in the med-term due to the global vaccine roll out and the massive amount of monetary policy and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and its impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term. 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the overall fundamental bearish bias, the CHF continues to remain surprisingly strong in the past few weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook does not make much sense, but this is a friendly reminder that the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD, but it has not been enough to explain the current divergence between the CHF and its fundamental outlook. Apart from that, SNB intervention is of course always a downside risk to keep in mind, especially with the important EURCHF exchange rate drifting into an area between 1.07 and 1.05 which have in previous years sparked additional intervention from the bank. Apart from that, ING investment bank has argued that recent CHF strength could also be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap relative to the spot price. The bank also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying programs has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see need for ramping up FX interventions as much as we would usually expect when EURCHF drift lower into key ‘intervention territory’. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +3605 with a net non-commercial position of -17043. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term, any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term, arguably more for the stretched JPY but risk off should benefit the CHF as well. With the EURCHF pair dipping below 1.0450, the odds of intervention have risen quite a lot, but it seems that the SNB has not been as quick and forceful to respond as they have in previous years. At the current price levels, the EURCHF still looks attractive for some mean reversion value longs. But, if you choose to trade the CHF, be ready for some unexpected price action from time to time.
by thunderpips
2
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most important part of the statement was that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2% midpoint over the med-term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the Aug meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the med-term outlook for CPI and employment, which means keeping close tabs on the data and covid will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains bullish , and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. The upcoming Nov meeting will be an important one so make sure to catch up for this in our Must-Read Section of the terminal. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news last week with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets or the RBNZ had expected and is part of the reason why some participants are looking for a 50bsp hike from the RBNZ this week. Whether 25 or 50, the chance for tradable volatility is definitely there this week. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -979 with a net non-commercial position of +12882. The NZD now reflects the 2nd biggest netlong positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. This is important to know going into the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday as it means the bar is higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. As long as the bank doesn’t downgrade their OCR projections, the carry component of the NZ cash rate will be an important driver to watch in the year ahead. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. Currently we do see more downside risks compared to upside risks for US10Y as we think markets have been too aggressive for what they have priced in for the Fed for 2022. If yields continue to drift lower as we saw on Friday last week, that could see further JPY gains and remains a key asset to keep track of. 3. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2273 with a net non-commercial position of -105351. The past few weeks of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side but was also exacerbated by risk on flows and rising oil prices which is a negative driver for Japan for its terms of trade. However, Friday’s risk off flush as a result of the covid developments in Europe showed why stretched positioning is such an important consideration in our trading. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish, the big net-shorts for both large speculators and leveraged funds always increases the odds of some mean reversion. No harm done in waiting for some of the froth to clear out before looking for new JPY shorts. As always, any major risk off flows is expected to support the JPY, especially with its sizable net-short position still built up in the currency for large speculators as well as leveraged funds.
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NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most important part of the statement was that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2% midpoint over the med-term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the Aug meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the med-term outlook for CPI and employment, which means keeping close tabs on the data and covid will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains bullish, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. The upcoming Nov meeting will be an important one so make sure to catch up for this in our Must-Read Section of the terminal. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news last week with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets or the RBNZ had expected and is part of the reason why some participants are looking for a 50bsp hike from the RBNZ this week. Whether 25 or 50, the chance for tradable volatility is definitely there this week. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -979 with a net non-commercial position of +12882. The NZD now reflects the 2nd biggest netlong positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. This is important to know going into the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday as it means the bar is higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. As long as the bank doesn’t downgrade their OCR projections, the carry component of the NZ cash rate will be an important driver to watch in the year ahead. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation, with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the cards, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now, with possible downside risks brewing it means real yields could continue to drift lower, which have not yet hurt the greenback, but is something to keep on the radar. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US and global economic data in the next few weeks. Especially with last week’s covid fears, any downgrades to growth expectations should support the Dollar from a safe haven perspective. 4. Economic Data Fed speak will be in focus in the week ahead, after the comments from Fed’s Clarida on Friday where he explained there is scope for a discussion Dec surrounding the possibility of an increase in the tapering pace. Even though that is not our base case right now, any further confirmation of this type of tone and rhetoric could be a sign that the median FOMC is moving towards upping the pace (which should be USD positive). 5. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +466 with a net non-commercial position of +35448. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large speculator positioning has been sizeable in a short space of time. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks, especially trading at YTD highs.
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