New Zealand Dollar Bearish Sentiment and Trade Plan
Based on the latest COT report, non-commercial traders (speculators) have significantly increased theirlong positions in the NZD. This suggests that they are becoming less bearish on the New Zealand dollar and may be anticipating a potential rally.
Open Positions Retail Sentiment data also shows a decrease in short positions and an increase in long positions among retail traders. This is a contrarian indicator, as retail traders are often wrong at market turning points. Therefore, the increase in long positions among retail traders may suggest that the NZDUSD downside has further to go.
The NZDUSD pair is currently trading below a triggered BUY level at 0.6157. An upside move and testing this level could make a fine signal to entry point for a short position.
Newzealanddollar
NZDCHF Strong buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.The NZDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 23 2023 Low. After breaking above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since January 31 2023), the pair confirmed the trend shift from long-term bearish to long-term bullish. The recent 3-day pull-back to the 1D MA200 is a technical buy opportunity.
As long as we close 1D candles above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), this is a buy opportunity, targeting the top of the Channel Up and Resistance 2 at 0.55140. Notice how this is exactly on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, which is the level that the November 29 2023 Higher High was priced at. Also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is the level where it double bottomed (November 17 2023) and started the rebound to the Higher High. We are at the 0.5 currently, which indicates a strong Support case.
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NZDCAD Bullish, dip buy opportunity targeting 0.85400The NZDCAD pair has hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yet again today and remains under Resistance 1 (0.84300) since July 14 2023, having multiple rejections on it. We do see however the potential for the emergence of a Channel Up, as the 1D RSI is printing the same pattern as the October 20 2023 Low, which initiated a Bullish Leg.
If the Channel Up prevails, that can be its new Bullish Leg to a Higher High. As a result we turn bullish on the pair, aiming for Resistance 2 at 0.85400.
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EURNZD: PA & expect fundamentals to continue short biasBig news from the RBNZ shortly, it is possible we'll get a hike, but either way I'm expecting NZD strength as a result.
I'm seeing weaker Euro, and the pinbar shooting star today on the daily candle means price action is also in favour of a continued short trade here.
NZD/USD Finds Support Amidst Economic HeadwindsNew Zealand Dollar Finds Support Amidst Economic Headwinds
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has recently discovered support at 0.6090, a critical area marked by previous support levels. This zone features two major supports, the 200-day moving average, and a dynamic trendline, potentially acting as obstacles to further declines. The presence of the 50% Fibonacci level adds an additional layer of potential resistance. Despite these technical factors, the Kiwi faces challenges, as New Zealand's Business PMI and Visitor Arrivals failed to provide the anticipated support.
The support zone at 0.6090 holds significance, with multiple key elements converging to create a formidable barrier against further downward movements. The 200-day moving average, dynamic trendline, and the 50% Fibonacci level collectively act as dynamic supports, suggesting a potential reversal in the NZD's trajectory.
Market Sentiment Influence:
Amidst the challenging economic backdrop, improved market sentiment on the last Friday provided a glimmer of support to the Kiwi. Moderate advances in most European markets and positive Wall Street futures weighed on the Safe-haven USD, indirectly bolstering the NZD.
New Zealand Economic Challenges:
However, economic data from New Zealand presented a less optimistic picture. Business activity deteriorated in December, and visitor arrivals experienced a significant decline compared to the same period last year. This unfavorable data poses challenges for the Kiwi's strength.
Upcoming Events and Outlook:
In the upcoming US calendar, market participants will closely watch the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, expected to show moderate improvement. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will conclude the week with her insights.
Our Outlook:
Despite the economic headwinds, our outlook for the NZD leans towards a new bullish impulse. The strong correlation with the EUR, coupled with the possibility of a decrease in US power, suggests potential upside for the Kiwi. Traders should carefully monitor economic indicators, central bank communications, and global market sentiment to make informed decisions in this evolving landscape.
Conclusion:
As the New Zealand Dollar navigates a challenging economic environment, the support at 0.6090 presents a potential turning point. While economic data reflects headwinds, the influence of market sentiment and the correlation with the EUR could contribute to a bullish resurgence for the NZD. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies to the evolving dynamics of the currency markets.
Our preference
Long positions Above 0.59500 with targets at 0.62500 & 0.63500 in extension.
GBP/NZD: Analyzing Momentum Shifts Amid Central Bank DynamicsThe GBP/NZD pair has lost momentum for a possible rebound, regardless of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's tempered remarks regarding the pace of interest rate hikes, despite presiding over a divided decision. This shift in sentiment has prompted a breakdown in price support around the 2.0500 area, followed by a subsequent retest and further bearish momentum. The price remains firmly below the 50-day moving average, signaling a strong inclination towards further downside movement.
While both the Bank of England (BOE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have embarked on a tightening path, the impact on the sterling has been somewhat subdued. Expectations from both central banks now appear to be more evenly balanced.
In light of these developments, we anticipate a continuation of bearish sentiment in the GBP/NZD pair, focusing on utilizing price action signals to guide our trading strategy.
NZDJPY: Bullish Trend Will Continue 🇳🇿🇯🇵
NZDJPY is trading in a long-term bullish trend.
The price has recently set a new higher high higher close on a daily.
We see a correctional movement at the moment.
I believe the growth will resume soon.
Next resistance - 92.0
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NZDCHF,🔴Sell opportunity🔴
NZDCHF reached the important supply zone formed as a bearish order block with FVG.
So we can expect the zone to reject the price.
We can study the price in the lower time frame for finding the trigger.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️06/02/2024
🔎 DYOR
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NZDJPY: Bullish Divergence and Fib Retracement Signal Potential📈 Overview:
NZDJPY, amid a bullish trend, shows a bullish divergence near its higher low. The current retracement from the 0.618 Fibonacci level suggests potential upside.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Bullish divergence and retracement from 0.618 indicate a favorable risk-reward ratio for potential long positions.
📉 Trade Strategy:
Traders may consider long positions, with entry near the current retracement level, anticipating an upward move.
🛑 Risk Management:
Mitigate risks with stop-loss orders to protect capital in case of unexpected price movements.
📈 Conclusion:
NZDJPY offers a concise opportunity for further upside, supported by bullish signals. Monitor for confirmation and adjust positions accordingly.
NZDUSD Analysis(➡️RR=2.00)🏃 NZDUSD is moving near a 🟢 Heavy Support zone($0.6110-$0.6050) 🟢.
📈Regarding Classic Technical Analysis , it seems that NZDUSD has succeeded in forming a Double-Bottom Pattern , and we are currently witnessing a pullback to the Neckline .
🌊In terms of Elliott wave theory , NZDUSD seems to have completed 5 impulsive waves and is currently completing corrective waves .
🌊Most likely, the structure of correction waves is Double Three Correction(WXY) .
🔔I expect the NZDUSD to rise to at least the 🔴 Resistance zone($0.6220-$0.6178) 🔴 again after the pullback completes.
New Zealand Dollar/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( NZDUSD ), 15-minute Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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NZDCHF: Falling Channel & Bullish Move 🇳🇿🇨🇭
NZDCHF is trading within a falling channel on a daily.
The price reached its support on Friday.
As a confirmation of the strength of a trend line, the pair
formed a tiny double bottom pattern on a 4H time frame and
broke its neckline.
We can expect a pullback now.
Target - 0.53
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GBPNZD Buy signal on a Channel Down.The GBPNZD pair has had a strong decline since our last sell call (November 24, see chart below) breaking even below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
The price is currently rising after making a Lower Low but not at the bottom of the (blue) Channel Down. For that reason we consider the emergence of a Diverging Channel Down that can break above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200.
In any case the probability for a short-term rise is very high as the 1D MACD just completed a Bullish Cross and the last such formation below 0.00 (October 11), pushed the price all the way to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result our target is now 2.05200.
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AUDNZD Bullish set-up.Our last analysis on the AUDNZD pair was on November 16 (see chart below) and so far has hit one of our two targets:
At the moment the price is struggling on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone, where it has failed since Dec 13 and on every single candle to close it above the 1D MA50. If it does, expect the continuation of the uptrend towards the Symmetrical Resistance, in which case our Target will remain 1.9200. If it continues to fail on the 1D MA50 and gets rejected, we will buy again near Support 1 and close everything at 1.08200 (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as all previous Lower Highs).
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NZDJPY Pump and dump in action.The NZDJPY pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern using the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a pivot point as of late. We can see a diverging (dotted) Channel Up that has priced the recent Higher Highs as well as being supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
The 1D RSI has rebounded on the 39.90 Support level, which is where the last two Higher Lows has been priced, while the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. This is a buy signal and our target is the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the dotted Channel Up at 91.800. We are waiting for a sell after the 1D RSI gets rejected near the 73.40 Resistance, and we will target the bottom of the longer term Channel Up at 88.900.
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NZDUSD: Top of the Megaphone calling for a sell.NZDUSD reached the top of the Bearish Megaphone pattern and along with the overbought 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.202, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 58.197) is on the ideal short level. The last LH was priced just under the 0.786 Fibonacci level and this is where the price is currently at. We turn bearish, targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 0.60500).
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NZDCAD - 4H bullishLet’s break down the NZD-CAD pair's recent movements. Back in October, we witnessed three bullish legs that propelled the index upward, following a touch on the last demand zone. Fast forward to December, the pattern repeats with another three-leg movement bringing us back down to that demand zone.
Now here's the exciting part – based on these patterns, I'm predicting another climb, targeting at least the previous high. Stay tuned to see how this plays out in the live market