NZD/USD technical analysis: 200-day moving average next?There have been some interesting technical developments in the NZD/USD daily chart recently. The price action this week effectively broke above the 50-day moving average’s dynamic resistance at 0.627, with the Kiwi dollar extending to 0.645. The NZD/USD pair hasn’t traded above 50-dma since early April.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet next Wednesday, with the market pricing in a fourth consecutive 50-basis-point hike, with the official cash rate expected to rise to 3%. As a result, New Zealand has the highest interest rates among major countries, giving the Kiwi dollar a relative advantage vis-à-vis peers.
The MACD, which has decisively broken above the zero line, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index, which is approaching overbought conditions, provide additional evidence of positive momentum. The last time the RSI was this high was on March 23.
The next area of resistance is at the level of 0.658 (June high). A break through this barrier would pave the way for an assault on the 200-day moving average at 0.663, where we could see some profit-taking behaviour emerge, given the 10% rally from July's lows.
